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In the event we are entering into a deep Coin Recession, is it possible to predict downsides based o

I was reading the latest Doug Winter blog at Winter Blog, and he mentions value purchasing and other topics. Regarding prices (today, in the past, and in the future), he notes:

"If you own stocks, you are probably well aware of the fact that the drops in the market since early September have basically eroded all stock profits achieved in the last five years. While the coin market has, so far, held its value far better than I would have expected, it is certainly a possibility that today’s $10,000 coin could certainly drop to $6,000 in a fairly short period of time. By studying the past history of specific subsections of the market, the value- conscious collector should have a clearer idea of potential downside. ...

Just because a coin was worth $5,000 in 2003 and it is worth the same today does not mean that it offers the “best” value to a buyer in 2009. But, it is interesting to ponder if coins such as this might have less downside than areas of the market that have shot up considerably."

*************

(1) I am no chartist, but is it possible to get an idea of the potential downside in coins by looking at past Coin Recessions? Is there any correlation between the amount that a coin shot up in price (over a period of time), and how much that coin will drop in value when the market takes a hit?

(2) Can coins be compared to stocks at all, seeing that stock prices are based on fundamentals, such as profits, management, global demand, execution, tax risks, etc., while coins are priced purely based on supply and demand (not to mention the occasion Well-Managed Promotion)?

(3) If a coin has not moved in price during the numismatic bull from 2003 to today, how relevent is this "price floor" when the downturn hits? It is fair to say that the reason why the price of that particular coin did not move was because of limited demand, and it is somewhat outside of the typical market forces that have propelled other coins to dizzying heights in the last five years (which may or may not be soley from supply and demand)?
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)

Comments

  • RWBRWB Posts: 8,082
    Fundamentally, rare coins are not investment material. The available quantity is very small, there is no standardization and no readily accessible open market. Sales of coins are incompletely reported and subject to considerable distortion, thus one cannot know what the current value is of any specific coin. Overall rare coins generate no earnings, pay no dividends and make no contribution to the overall economy. Lastly, the knowledge required to trade in rare coins is much greater than that required for other individually-managed investments.

    The basic rules others have stated so many times still apply: buy coins with disposable income, buy what you like and enjoy owning, hold for the long term, sell when you want to not when you must.

    Just an opinion or two.
  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 13,945 ✭✭✭✭✭
    NO ONE can predict the future.

    Not even Carnac.

    Don't even bother trying.

    image


  • << <i>NO ONE can predict the future.

    Not even Carnac.

    Don't even bother trying. >>



    I agree.
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All excellent questions, and I will post the definitive answers to all of your questions...5-10 years from now. image
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,921 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The value of the coin is of course tied to supply and demand. Demand is a funciton of the number of coin collectors, their motivation to buy, and how much "spare" cash they have.

    I impression of coin collectors for the higher end coins ($2k+) is that they are generally fairly well off and do not live paycheck to paycheck, so they are better equipped to handle an economic downturn. I speculate that for every collector who ends up needing to liquidate, there's a collector waiting for a good deal on a nice coin. This will stabilize prices somewhat.
  • RWB
    EXCELLENT commentary!image
    No good deed goes unpunished
  • shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A couple of points. One, some very high income people live paycheck to paycheck, this tendency is pervasive throughout age and income levels. I study this stuff for a living.

    Two, coin trends seem to be demand-driven cycles and past behavior may not reflect those. It may work for long term consistent demand coins (maybe Morgans?), but there may be too many other factors at play to accurately predict winners in other series.
    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
  • Bayard1908Bayard1908 Posts: 4,091 ✭✭✭✭
    How many of these "the sky is falling" threads are you going to start? You're like the 1L in law school who won't stop talking about his own hypotheticals.

    If a particular coin has not gone up much in value during the last 3 years, it probably won't go down much in the near future either. If something has doubled in the last 3 years, it has farther to fall.
  • LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭


    << <i>A couple of points. One, some very high income people live paycheck to paycheck, this tendency is pervasive throughout age and income levels. I study this stuff for a living. >>





    I agree with this statement. When I went with my lovely in-laws to their appointment with the bankruptcy attorney, he mentioned that tons of very wealthy people were coming to see him to file for bankruptcy, and who racked up massive amounts of debt.

    As I was assisting my in-laws with their bankruptcy schedules, my mother in law had the audacity to show me how "organized" she was, by pointing to a pile of credit card bills about an inch thick and saying, "see, I know where I spent every penny." Absolutely outrageous. image
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
  • DaveGDaveG Posts: 3,535
    Just remember, Longacre:

    "Like Mother, Like Daughter."

    I hope you went home and cut up Mrs. L's credit cards "by mistake". image

    Check out the Southern Gold Society

  • HEre is the deal, when the dow had the worst week ever about a month ago I noticed prices on ebay were down 15 to 20% that week for alot of coins I follow, the dow bounced back and I noticed coin prices went back up. The stock market dictates everything and people feel richer or poorer each time the dow moves 1000 points and therefore make purchases based on how rich they feel at the time. If the stock market goes to dow 5000 or 6000 coins will probably take a 30% hit across the board, if the dow goes back to 10000 the talk of a coin recesssion will dissappear really fast, if it goes above that coin prices will probably increase across the board.
  • mozinmozin Posts: 8,755 ✭✭✭
    I don't understand how middle class Americans can look at their stock market holdings, now worth half what they were worth last year, and feel confident about paying top dollar for $1000+ coins. There must be an end to the high coin prices.
    I collect Capped Bust series by variety in PCGS AU/MS grades.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,415 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just remember, Longacre:

    "Like Mother, Like Daughter."


    image
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,415 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It seems to me that questions 1 & 3 are essentially the same question.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • FrankcoinsFrankcoins Posts: 4,571 ✭✭✭
    With the two $800 billion bailouts made up of "created money" I don't see tangible assets coming down.
    Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,726 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are always numerous trends affecting anything.

    There might be some justification for comparing declines of similar items affected
    by similar trends over different time periods but there are unique trends at the cur-
    rent time that would tend to throw most such comparisons out the window. As er-
    ratic as the economy is at the current time some baseline assumptions have to be
    made. One has to question if the economy can even survive if there's no inflation.

    As a general rule of thumb collectibles that have had the most stupendous advances
    in a bull market will tend to have the greatest losses in a bear market but this pre-
    supposes that the trends affect market participants equally and that the cause of
    the increases was market exuberance rather than supply and demand. It would be
    foolish probably to suggest an aluminum 1950-E East German 10p was going to drop
    some huge percentage just because it's up 200 fold in the last several years. Where
    increases are caused by fundamental demand and supply rather than speculation
    then there may be no especial reason to foresee any loss. By the same token rare
    US 18th century silver coins wouldn't necessarily be strongly affected even in a severe
    downdraft. "Collector coins" like low grade buffalos and indians could actually enjoy
    an increase in demand in a sharply falling market if unemployment is up. People turn
    to hobbies when they are unemployed and many have a little money to collect.

    I wouldn't worry too much about a downturn until it gets here. Coins are funny inas-
    much as by the time you know there's a downturn it's too late to get out. If it hap-
    pens again it will probably be the same thing. There's little choice for most of us but
    to ride it out.

    One thing's nearly for sure; if there's a coin recession it probably won't last as long as
    the '89-'95 one.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
  • This content has been removed.


  • << <i>Here is the scene:
    it is summer of '08 the most likely top of the market in our great hobby of kings and I am sitting at my desk in my office with a couple of loupes drooling over my classic busties and having a grand ole time with them. But when I turn on the computer and try to bid on some I keep getting either reserve not met or you have been outbid and I go back to admiring my baby busties.

    now it is lets say winter of '09 and as some are predicting a falling coinmarket and I am sitting at my desk in my office with a couple of loupes drooling over my classic busties having a grand ole time. And when I go to the computer I am actually the high bidder on a couple of baby busties for a liitle while at least. And I go back to my busties when I find out I was out bid.

    now it is summer of '09 and the coin market is crashing and I am sitting at my desk drooling once again at my babie busties. But now I go on the computer and start bidding on Heritage and finally win some baby busties at sensational prices and have a grand ole time.

    now it is winter of '10 and the coin market is still in the red and I am sitting at my desk drooling over twice as many baby bustie's than I had before and having an even better time. And I return to Heritage and win some more a reasonable prices.

    And the cycle begins again, may take more or less time for the cycle to work it s way through but you get the picture. I believe this scenario is a lot healthier than if the current bull cycle never ended and I had to pay more and more until I couldn't anymore. Since I am not selling anything becasue I love my busties I would never benefit from a bull market. We really have to separate what our intentions and collecting goals are, if I were solely a flipper then I would be worried, but I am not, I am in it for the long haul. >>




    OMG, your are intense realone. image


    I can so relate to your description, just a different denomination and era.

    image
    imageimage
    Collector of Early 20th Century U.S. Coinage.
    ANA Member R-3147111
  • I don't worry about the prices going up or down except that if they go down I can buy more, I do this in knowing that I don't collect coins as an investment, I collect coins becuase I love the history and story behind coins. I have my sets that I try to complete, they are not as fantastic as many of yours but they are mine. When I sell it will be in my grand retirement from this life and I know my heirs are not interested in collecting coins. So coin recession means little to me except I may be able to purchase that 1955 DD a little cheaper that I am drooling over image
    "One of the advantages of being disorderly is that one is constantly making new discoveries" -A.A. Milne


  • << <i>(1) is it possible to get an idea of the potential downside in coins by looking at past Coin Recessions? >>

    There is no precedent for what's going on, world-wide, so no one can say for certain.


    << <i>(2) Can coins be compared to stocks at all >>

    No, thank God.


    << <i>(3) If a coin has not moved in price during the numismatic bull from 2003 to today, how relevent is this "price floor" when the downturn hits? >>

    Less downside risk, obviously.


    (Above answers based on fifty years experience in numismatics.)
    Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.

    my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
  • Steve27Steve27 Posts: 13,275 ✭✭✭
    1) No you can't predict how big the downturn will be or how long it will last (it's the nature of the beast; otherwise, we could all sit back and wait until it was over).

    2) For a guide look at the fine art market. My understanding is, at recent auctions modern art is not meeting reserves, and classic pieces are down by as much as 50 percent.
    "It's far easier to fight for principles, than to live up to them." Adlai Stevenson
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,025 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Green Eggs and Ham....I will not, I cannot, I won't sell my coins.
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    one thing we havent seen yet which leads me to believe the top hasnt been achieved in rare coins.....

    even though we are in a terrible "cash poor" economic slide, money has not really left the "equity and debt markets" for the average "joe the plumber" yet

    most have been fooled into believing that their 401K's and other equity/debt/real estate investments will recover in relatively short order......

    it's all we hear every night on the news, "recovery in order", "market capitulation", "tested bottoms"

    once those average joe's and jane's cant take ANY MORE bs from the talking heads, they will pull their monies and look for safe havens...

    first it's PM's, then Rare Coins

    it happened in 1979/80, it'll happen again.

    as one wise man once said "those who do not study history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past"

    we all have very short memories, and for the 20 to low 30 somethings who are actively investing in the finacial markets today,

    they cant remember, they were not here to experience it

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just came for the laugh. And many of you have delivered once again.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,415 ✭✭✭✭✭
    With the two $800 billion bailouts made up of "created money" I don't see tangible assets coming down.

    The "800 Large" only begins to replace the money that has been destroyed.
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,415 ✭✭✭✭✭
    once those average joe's and jane's cant take ANY MORE bs from the talking heads, they will pull their monies and look for safe havens...

    first it's PM's, then Rare Coins



    Let me get this straight. When the average Joe is scared of everything else, you expect him to spend his money on rare coins? You think he'll think rare coins are the safest of the safe havens? Really?
    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    the key to sustaining the market is new money.

    new money has to come from somewhere. the money flooding into physical PM's is a start, it has to spill over into rare coins to be effective.

    money is tight, higher end coins suffer.

    let me be clear, higher end generic's......not higher end trophies

    the $1mm trophies seem to always do well. try to sell the $5-$8k generic rare coin, you'll see what I mean.

    twosides,

    hope you enjoyed yourself. but do you have anything to add but your laughter?

  • 09sVDB09sVDB Posts: 2,420 ✭✭✭
    My thoughts are to have a plan an stick to it. Most of the time if you do this you will come out alright in the end. Just my honest opinion.
  • Today I am thankful.


    My dad is gone 9 years and I miss him very much.

    He was a coin collector.

    Last night I found a 1988 red book that was his.

    I started reading and learned more about coins and history.

    But even more I felt my father.

    He left boxes full of coins that my mom has. I am sure that there are some valuable ones.

    But nothing is more valuable than the time I had with my father.

    Be grateful and pass along something today.

    I have something for everyone coming for thanksgiving to our home today.

    Thank you to the members of the board or your advice and support.

    Brad

    Ships are safe in harbor but thats not what ships were built for.
  • The fact is, money hasn't disappeared. The same number of dollars that were around 3 years ago are still around today. In fact, there is more money. It is true that money can become less valuable (inflate or devalue), or it can shift to another geographical area (Middle East), but it hasn't simply vanished from the face of the Earth.

    If we are currently in a deflationary period, with the buying power of the dollar being stronger, coin prices will naturally have to react. However, that doesn't mean that, across the board, coins are worth less in "real value," which is one of the best things about collecting coins or owning metals. You may have been able to sell your collection and purchased all new furnature for the house and a new car 3 years ago, and chances are, if you could do it then, you could do it now, so what difference does it make what the dollar value of those transactions were?

    The obvious differece between coins and stocks, which is one of the main reasons I began collecting in the first place, is that you actually take possession of something. The value is not based on whether or not some corporation can continue to increase profitability.

    The bottom line is that unless you are convinced that the US Dollar will completely devalue, worry not! everything is going to be fine, and I'm very thankful for thatimage
  • MikeInFLMikeInFL Posts: 10,188 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Here is the scene:
    it is summer of '08 the most likely top of the market in our great hobby of kings and I am sitting at my desk in my office with a couple of loupes drooling over my classic busties and having a grand ole time with them. But when I turn on the computer and try to bid on some I keep getting either reserve not met or you have been outbid and I go back to admiring my baby busties.

    now it is lets say winter of '09 and as some are predicting a falling coinmarket and I am sitting at my desk in my office with a couple of loupes drooling over my classic busties having a grand ole time. And when I go to the computer I am actually the high bidder on a couple of baby busties for a liitle while at least. And I go back to my busties when I find out I was out bid.

    now it is summer of '09 and the coin market is crashing and I am sitting at my desk drooling once again at my babie busties. But now I go on the computer and start bidding on Heritage and finally win some baby busties at sensational prices and have a grand ole time.

    now it is winter of '10 and the coin market is still in the red and I am sitting at my desk drooling over twice as many baby bustie's than I had before and having an even better time. And I return to Heritage and win some more a reasonable prices.

    And the cycle begins again, may take more or less time for the cycle to work it s way through but you get the picture. I believe this scenario is a lot healthier than if the current bull cycle never ended and I had to pay more and more until I couldn't anymore. Since I am not selling anything becasue I love my busties I would never benefit from a bull market. We really have to separate what our intentions and collecting goals are, if I were solely a flipper then I would be worried, but I am not, I am in it for the long haul. >>



    I hope you have a few boxes of Kleenex to clean up all that drool. image
    Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    someone please let me know when draped bust goes on sale--looking foward to the message.

    because if this stuff goes down, eventually it will go back up, based on past history

    not much can be said historically of stuff that was minted in the millions recently, was carefully minted, preserved in plastic, and transferred to even better plastic, and suffered virtually no attrition, and can be had any day of the week in quantity

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • pursuitoflibertypursuitofliberty Posts: 7,283 ✭✭✭✭✭
    RWB, page 1 ... thank you for the commentary ... I agree wholeheartedly image



    On to the questions ... my two-bits worth;

    (1) is it possible to get an idea of the potential downside in coins by looking at past Coin Recessions?

    There are so many different areas in the coin market that I do not think you can generalize.

    Based on the past however, I would be particularly wary of any coin that is not truely rare that has been escalated a long ways and touted as an "investment". Think more common date Morgan Dollars specifically and get the 1988/89 vs 1992/93 data.


    (2) Can coins be compared to stocks at all

    Only in the respect that the majority of so-called "investors" buy greed and sell fear, while true wealth-builders tend to look at the opposite angle


    (3) If a coin has not moved in price during the numismatic bull from 2003 to today, how relevent is this "price floor" when the downturn hits?

    Not particularly. Prior to the "2003 Bull" as you describe, there was a "1999-2002 Bull" as well. Most partiocipants that do not pre-date 1999 seem to think this was a rebound from the early 1990's level (IMO). This is not neccessarily true. For example, a 1916 Quarter in Ch AU, has not moved much from 2003 levels (as far as I know). However, go back to 1999, and the move between 1999-2003 is huge (again, based on memory - and if my memory serves me, something like 4-fold). Back to 1989 ... the first move from 1989-1999 was also pretty good sized, but may have been more of the real "drop and rebound".

    Again, there are so many areas, it is impossible to tell how each area will be affected.






    “We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”

    Todd - BHNC #242
  • As much as many dislike moderns, a hard recession should impact mintages of coins in the near future.

    Whereas a number of issues impacted the buffs and plats this year, the streamlining by the Mint of numerous series is in part a reflection of difficult economic times. This has been a positive in the sense that the Mint was going postal with way too many offerings, sometimes just a matter of packaging, and the reduction in offerings was needed.

    IMO there is a good chance the Mint, especially in regards to coins containing any PM, will result in lower mintages in the coming year and perhaps beyond.

    Not likely the coins in question by this thread, but the thread on the 1893-S Morgan got me to thinking about this as that was a coin that the mintage was impacted by a recession.
  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Here is the scene:
    it is summer of '08 the most likely top of the market in our great hobby of kings and I am sitting at my desk in my office with a couple of loupes drooling over my classic busties and having a grand ole time with them. But when I turn on the computer and try to bid on some I keep getting either reserve not met or you have been outbid and I go back to admiring my baby busties.

    now it is lets say winter of '09 and as some are predicting a falling coinmarket and I am sitting at my desk in my office with a couple of loupes drooling over my classic busties having a grand ole time. And when I go to the computer I am actually the high bidder on a couple of baby busties for a liitle while at least. And I go back to my busties when I find out I was out bid.

    now it is summer of '09 and the coin market is crashing and I am sitting at my desk drooling once again at my babie busties. But now I go on the computer and start bidding on Heritage and finally win some baby busties at sensational prices and have a grand ole time.

    now it is winter of '10 and the coin market is still in the red and I am sitting at my desk drooling over twice as many baby bustie's than I had before and having an even better time. And I return to Heritage and win some more a reasonable prices.

    And the cycle begins again, may take more or less time for the cycle to work it s way through but you get the picture. I believe this scenario is a lot healthier than if the current bull cycle never ended and I had to pay more and more until I couldn't anymore. Since I am not selling anything becasue I love my busties I would never benefit from a bull market. We really have to separate what our intentions and collecting goals are, if I were solely a flipper then I would be worried, but I am not, I am in it for the long haul. >>




    And IF you actually do that Al you'll definitely be the exception. The vast VAST majority will either drop out completely or curse the day that danged coin dealer lied to them about the value on the coins they own, and drop out at least for a good while.

    Far as the original question, I don't think so.

    Food for thought however : the last place people expect to lose money is in their own homes. When that happens it's a horrible blow to the confidence in EVERYTHING including yourself. We have unprecedented losses occuring to millions of people thruout the country and it's far from over. This is coming while the middle class is being decimated. The government continues to spend and print, debasing the currency similar to the weimar republic. There IS NO manufacturing to "pull us out" of this. Certainly not while this country maintains the 2nd highest corporate taxes in the world. You can open a manufacturing facility in communist China and pay less taxes at this point I've been told. I KNOW it can be done in communist Vietnam. And the people will happily work their butts off for you, just for a job. In other words, there's little incentive for manufacturers to put up with the crap and taxation in the USA. So they go elsewhere. Anywhere. And no threats coming from the new tax/spend/print administration is going to stop that. ONLY cutting the spending, taxing and printing will and that's not going to happen.

    I remember once upon a time and not that long ago, when we received a sales lead in the mid-west, there was someone who had a good job, or owned a good business that in some way was connected to creating ( manufacturing ) something. That spelled a good lead. The fellow who built the Heathrow Collection of $3.00 gold manufactured an item in Minnesota. Spent a couple million dollars, unfortunately with a scumbag in New Jersey who ripped him off, ( sorry, I had to include that part of it ). When he called me to help him get rid of these coins, I sat in his home and talked about what happened. He told me all about the foundry he started, and the part he invented that was ultimately used by a large domestic auto manufacturer. Nice man. A good man. He sold his company and told me that there's NO WAY he would have been able to do what he did in today's political climate. That it was tough enough then but now, impossible. He's not the only fellow in manufacturing I can tell you about either.

    Are they ALL gone? No, of course they aren't ALL gone. Not yet. But when you have such anti business, anti capitalism, pro socialism permeate almost every thread of America, it has to give. People move to Fla for a variety of reasons. The fact there is no state income tax here is a big one. It's natural to try to protect what you work hard to build. It's human nature. Well, that human nature is LEAVING the US and unless we have a radical "change" ( not the type of change we will see with the ilk that is in the white house now or for the foreseeable future), this place, at least from a middle class perspective is doomed. And that fate is already sealed. Couple that with 70+ Million Americans who are part of a certain age group beginning to collect socialist security and starting to be forced into an absolutely unsustainable government health care situation and it does not bode well for the future.

    In the most socialist of countries there is rich, and there is poor. There is no middle class. WE essentially invented the middle class. In 6,000 years of human history, there was NO MIDDLE CLASS. There were rulers and subjects. OUR fore-Fathers created a Free country and that freedom allowed anyone to work hard and attain the type of financial dreams that the world never saw before. And it's over. I would love to find actual numbers on how many people rent ( they call it lease nowadays ) their automobiles. That was a major loss in property ownership in this country. How many of you here "rent/lease" a car because of the monthly payment? Now follow that line of thinking into Houses. In the age of no money down, how many people have real equity in their homes? I believe that one of the ways this real estate dilema will be "solved" will be people surrendering to 40 and 50 year mortgages. It will become purely a "how much is my monthly payment" just like cars. And that will be the end of property, which is a foundational aspect of what made this country different from all other countries and it will be gone.

    Many here understand this and many more don't. So how does this affect coins? Badly, that's how. Sure, the fundamentals are in place for hyper inflation and that's supposedly good for tangible assets. I watched a 59 Chevy sell for $150,000.00 the other night at Barret Jackson. Are you kidding me? 1799 Eagles in Choice AU for 30 Grand? LOL, not with my check book. It has to pop. Cash is becoming more and more scarce everyday and it's GOING to affect us in the coin business. Already has started . Will there be coins that increase in value? Well, I hope so. I think so too. But I believe there will be a major downturn in coins and it's right around the corner. You have to educate yourself about what 's going on out there and try to think of how it will affect us. We in the coin dealer profession are no different than you in that we have our money tied up in these little spheres of metal. It's something we think about more than the average coin collector or coin investor because it's our livelyhood. Speaking strickly for myself, it's how I put food on the table. How my Wife and I live. Of course I don't want to see the coin market decrease, and people losing their rear ends with their coins, but after living thru bear and bull coin markets since the late 1970's, I know it's inevitable and I believe that the bear has already started. Andy Lustig can tell you about how it all just ended once upon a time. There's a couple other guys here who have been thru it as well. It's not fun.

    I could write for another hour+ but I've already taken enough "real estate" on this thread.

    Now is the time to review ALL your coins and think, do you really want them? Are they REALLY the type of coins you want to own if the market for them "corrects" by 90%? Think that can't happen? It has happened. Don't have a list of all your coins? Make one. Do it today. Do it over the long weekend. Think about what motivates you to own ANY coins. Then take a closer look at what you have your money invested in and think if there's something better or if there's a better place for your hard earned money to be in. Formulate a plan and then take action. Don't get caught with your pants down .

    Think about getting rid of your common, and average coins and replace them with something exquisite. Something that appeals to people who DO have the financial wherewithal to weather a depression and who will look at your coin and say, ok you want 100% OVER market, in a depression, but your specimen sure is better than any I've seen. I'll take it. Diversify. Have some "metal". And as far as Numismatics, own something special.

    In my opinion, that's where you want to be. It's not easy to do, but it is do able.

    Happy Thanksgiving Everyone image



  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ow is the time to review ALL your coins and think, do you really want them? Are they REALLY the type of coins you want to own if the market for them "corrects" by 90%? Think that can't happen? It has happened. Don't have a list of all your coins? Make one. Do it today. Do it over the long weekend. Think about what motivates you to own ANY coins. Then take a closer look at what you have your money invested in and think if there's something better or if there's a better place for your hard earned money to be in. Formulate a plan and then take action. Don't get caught with your pants down .

    Think about getting rid of your common, and average coins and replace them with something exquisite. Something that appeals to people who DO have the financial wherewithal to weather a depression and who will look at your coin and say, ok you want 100% OVER market, in a depression, but your specimen sure is better than any I've seen. I'll take it. Diversify. Have some "metal". And as far as Numismatics, own something special.


    I think that this is very good advice, Tom, and good advice for all seasons.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it's all we hear every night on the news, "recovery in order", "market capitulation", "tested bottoms"

    once those average joe's and jane's cant take ANY MORE bs from the talking heads, they will pull their monies and look for safe havens...

    first it's PM's, then Rare Coins

    it happened in 1979/80, it'll happen again.

    as one wise man once said "those who do not study history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past"


    Thanks 7over8. It's nice to see that someone understand what's coming.

    The "800 Large" only begins to replace the money that has been destroyed.

    No money is destroyed in this example. Only an asset whose price varies all the time. Paper stocks and bonds being destroyed? It's all paper wishes in the end. Funny that no one saw the TRILLIONs being created out of thin air over the past 6 years as inflationary, but only see the same assets evaporating as "deflationary." The money supply has not contracted since 1955. And nothing will change from 2008-2013, other than massive increases, which will be massively inflationary within 1-3 years.

    roadrunner


    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    I do not believe that we will see

    a serious coin value downturn

    for the following reasons.

    1. Coins, as a whole, are not seriously overvalued
    as compaired with the coin bubble of 1980 or the various
    other financial bubbles we are seeing .

    2. In a deflation, coins will go down in value far less then other
    hard assets have declines.

    3. In the inflation sure to follow the deflation, coins should prove
    an excellent store house of relative value.

    4. Coins have been collected for thousands of years and I see no reason
    for folks to stop now good times or bad.

    5. We may see collectors becoming more selective in the quality they buy
    and the price they pay for coins. Collectors may prune their collection more
    severely then they have done in the past. Fugly and damages coins may become
    difficult if not impossible to sell without horrendous discounts. Some aspects of coin
    different sectors of the coin industry may suffer stagnation in sales and much lower prices,
    but in general, nice looking coin of almost any grade will always be in demand and thus
    be sellable.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    excellent writing tonight, I want to thank the long paragraph people, you've drunk less wine and whiskey than me tonight.

    I still have a hard time understanding how "hard money" goes down in value, when inflation must rise if "they" are running the money printing presses on high speed?

    I've got 100 year charts of hard asset values (whether it be coins, real estate, operating companies [stock market], and they show wild swings but trend up up up the farther you step back.

    Like I said, my life is only half over so my horizon is a couple of decades still... and i wish the "good stuff" would drop in price and my salary dollars [wage inflation] increase in proportion to all this money that's supposed to be sloshing around once they Fix the economy [grin]


    because then I'd step up to the plate and try to finish this damned US type set, early copper, small eagle silver, fat head gold, and all.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,573 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>the key to sustaining the market is new money.

    new money has to come from somewhere. the money flooding into physical PM's is a start, it has to spill over into rare coins to be effective.

    money is tight, higher end coins suffer.

    let me be clear, higher end generic's......not higher end trophies

    the $1mm trophies seem to always do well. try to sell the $5-$8k generic rare coin, you'll see what I mean.

    twosides,

    hope you enjoyed yourself. but do you have anything to add but your laughter? >>



    Yes, I think coins are the best hobby in the world and was wondering if you know who the fat lady is.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << (2) Can coins be compared to stocks at all >>

    ...........No, thank God.


    Very true. Coins have been outperforming stocks for the past 10 years and will continue to outperform them. Stocks will continue to slide overall for another 3-5 years. So there is no comparison.

    roadrunner



    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold

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