My Economic Prediction: Today or tomorrow was/will be the bottom.

GoldenEyeNumismatics

I've had the idea that a 7500 DJIA would be the bottom ever since it dipped back into 4 digits. I'll be surprised if this week wasn't the bottom.

OPA

I don't think we have seen the bottom yet ... 6500 ... ( I'm hoping that I'm wrong)

coinlieutenant

From a technical perspective, 7500 means nothing. Major support existed at the S&P around 800. Look at a chart long term on the S&P. It is clear as day.

Technicals arent everything, and 7500 is a spot that mirrors the other two 90% drops that we have had in history.

Percentage wise, 7500 would be the same point hit during the depression and the NASDAQ bubble that rallied hard, about a 50% retracement overall, followed by the big down wave that took those two markets to 90% down.

Fun aint it?

rgCoinGuy

It sure doesn't feel like a bottom yet. I do want to see this economy turn around as much as anyone else, I just don't see it yet.

I am just not sure what would give us the floor yet. Maybe if congress put their foot down and said the bailout window has closed so everything can work itself out like it is suppose to in a free market? I just don't see that happening.

Coll3ctor

It seems to me that the markets want most of the bailouts.

Bear

OK, so lets bottom line the market.

7500 is the bottom......

On the other hand, it may be just
a stop on the way to 4500.

The may be a sharp rally, but on the
other hand, there might not be a rally.

I guess the best play is to sell short..buy long
stay in while also getting out of the market.

I think that I will have me an Octoberfest beer.
That seems to be the only thing I am sure of, at
this point in time.

Deadhorse

7200 is the next testing point.

On down from there.

6000 soon.

I could see 4500 as a resting point but not a bottom by any means.

renman95

I'm sticking with my 4,500/450.

When we reach that point, I'm not sure if the country is in any shape to invest in...

The "unkown" event to make that happen might only be known to Joe Biden...within 6 months he guarantees. Who says only the republicans are fearmongers.

Ren

RedTiger

I think there are still too many bulls around for this to be a stock market bottom. It isn't the worst time to be buying stocks bit-by-bit for the long term, but the draw down could be horrendous before the worm turns. Even if it is a bottom, there is likely to be a retest of that bottom and the retest is a much lower risk entry point.

If you are calling "bottom" are you putting up serious money too? Or just talking about it? As always, I find it more interesting to hear what people are doing with real money than more predictions.

Bear

Good people, there is no National financial

program in place to stem the current economic

disaster. We have a lame duck administration

and the new economic team for 2009 is not in place.


Is appears that things may get far worse before they

stabilize. We appear headed for a world wide depression

and it may just have to run its course until it ends. I never

thought that I would live thru a second depression. It is very

sad indeed.

renman95

Sorry to hear that bear.

Keep the wisdom coming.

Ren

BigRed

<< <i>Good people, there is no National financial

program in place to stem the current economic

disaster. We have a lame duck administration

and the new economic team for 2009 is not in place.


Is appears that things may get far worse before they

stabilize. We appear headed for a world wide depression

and it may just have to run its course until it ends. I never

thought that I would live thru a second depression. It is very

sad indeed. >>


Bear, I did not know you were around during the depression, thats very interesting, can you tell us some memories of it.

dimples

Bear... How did you and your wife survive the Depression?

roadrunner

Dead cat bounce due between now and mid-March. When it comes is anyone's guess. Then we go even lower.

roadrunner

renman95

Forumites,

I think we are in a time warp or some portole defined from the November 4 election to January 20 Inauguration. The America before the election was "classic coke" and after Jan. 20 it will be "new coke."

Right now "they" are messing with the formula and the tasters are confused at its reception on the other side of this time-thingy. Sheeple will be convinced, coerced and bullied that this "new coke" is good for them and will take time to get use to.

The resistors will be called names and branded. They will be told that what tasted good back then will not work in the new future. New tastebuds will have to be unleashed and old tastebuds will have to be re-educated.

However, "new coke" did not last long...

Ren

Darin

A couple months ago my broker was wanting me to buy some Bank of America stock at $24 per share because the dividend yield was so good, something like 7%. Glad I didn't do it, now the stock price is around $10.
And Citigroup share price is 4 bucks and there's speculation that they might try to sell or merge with someone. CNBC said they've lost 49 billion of their market cap in the last month or so. Even JP Morgan's share price is starting to drop fast now, and they were hanging in pretty good for a while.
I don't think there's much chance the market has bottomed with all the turmoil going on with these huge banks.
And there might be a lot of investors start pulling their money out of these banks and investing in Gold and Silver. Could have been some of that going on today.

Bear

Well, I was 3 years old, but I lived thru it. My dad was a college

graduate but could not find a job. He applied for a job shoveling

snow off the rail road tracks for Penn Central. So many thousand of

men showed up, that they gave them a written test to separate the

150 men to be hired from the several thousand applying. Often, our

family only had two hot dogs in the house. My sister got one and I

got the other one, our parents ate nothing on those days. People survived

bacause that is what people do. Who ever had work in the family would share

what little they had with the rest of the family. For money, folks hocked what ever

they owned that had any value. Wedding bands, watches, silverware ect.


I remember my dad telling me that if the rent was paid, and there was something

to eat in the house, that meant that we were indeed rich. We had an old radio for entertainment

and for toys, we made our own from scraps of wood, cardboard and glue. There was no money for movies

or newspapers or magazines. No one we knew was able to buy new clothes. Everything was hand me downs

or second hand from family. We had no health insurance , if it was an emergency, we had to go to the

County Hospitals and wait for hours. Everyone we knew was poor and in the same boat as we were. We were

clean and our clothes, though old and patched, were always clean. For me, being poor in New York, seemed that

it was the way that things were supposed to be and that it would last forever. From 1931 up to the War in 1941,

things were very hard for most Americans.

renman95

Thanks for your thoughts bear.

jmski52

I often tell my fiancee' that I'm just glad to be here. Right on, Bear!

57loaded

as chicken little would say.....(and it hasn't yet)

IMHO and a close friend of the bird...not Henny Penny, but Co$ky-locky...wow it is a forbidden word....even in a fairy tale....OMG

fishcooker

In the depression, Grandpa and his immediate family were subsistence farmers and hunters - except they were so poor they could not afford bullets. They hunted food with rocks.

Bear

Gee, If we had rocks, we woulda

put them in water and made soup.

roadrunner

The remaining major banks will either need to be continually subsidized, nationalized or taken over. There is no way most of them can ever clean up their toxic balance sheets due the extent of the worthless derivatives they took on. Additional layers of lipstick will be applied to the sow to make things look good. But the end result is not in question, just a matter of when. So one can't expect much out of stocks, bonds, or banks over the longer term of say 3-5 years. The goal from here is to manage an orderly fall by keeping people in the "standard investments" of the financial system. If the sheeple majority ever realized just how dire the situation still is and that the new administration will have no better luck fixing it, they'd already be stocking up on guns, butter, and hard assets.

roadrunner

OPA

<< <i>Dead cat bounce due between now and mid-March. When it comes is anyone's guess. Then we go even lower.

roadrunner >>



Good call ... Your Dead cat bounce may have started ...

renman95

I'm "playing" an "Obama bounce" til Jan 20. Then I'm hunkering down for 4,500.

Ren

StampAlarm

So, how high does the accumulative national debt have to get before it's addressed...even in lip service?

Bear

The stock market will have a relief rally and then

sink to new lows for the remainder of 2009. I see

deflationary pressures in 2009 because of the great

debt incurred by the American People during the gp/gp years.

Unemployment will be between 10 - 12% depending

on what state one lives in. The Government

actions taken, will begin to near fruit during 2010 and

the stock market will begin a slow, gradual recovery.


I have a serious belief, that some loony tune, will manage to

start a war in the next two years and we will somehow get involved.

As for PMs, they will not do particularly well in 2009 while I believe that

rare coins will hold on to reletive values farly well with some downward bias.