Beware! Platinum UNC-W sales numbers soaring!
groht5
Posts: 194
As reported on another thread:
Weekly sales reported 11/16/2008
Unc-W plats:
$100 - 1 ounce - 2834
$50 - .5 ounce - 3226
$25 - .25 ounce - 4280
$10 - .1 ounce - 4669
Includes sales of 4 coin sets - 2165
People can speculate all they want how the numbers are wrong, BUT at the end of the day the numbers could hold true.
Weekly sales reported 11/16/2008
Unc-W plats:
$100 - 1 ounce - 2834
$50 - .5 ounce - 3226
$25 - .25 ounce - 4280
$10 - .1 ounce - 4669
Includes sales of 4 coin sets - 2165
People can speculate all they want how the numbers are wrong, BUT at the end of the day the numbers could hold true.
Platinum Is Best
0
Comments
<< <i>As reported on another thread:
Weekly sales reported 11/16/2008
Unc-W plats:
$100 - 1 ounce - 2834
$50 - .5 ounce - 3226
$25 - .25 ounce - 4280
$10 - .1 ounce - 4669
Includes sales of 4 coin sets - 2165
People can speculate all they want how the numbers are wrong, BUT at the end of the day the numbers could hold true.
These coins were minted with platinum near $2,000 per oz and sales of the proofs extremely slow. No business would opt to risk so much money in such a market, not even the Mint. In a nutshell, I don't believe the stats.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>My experience has always been that if you want to take advantage of possible low mintage coins due to a lack of orders, you NEVER bring it to the attention of the boards. >>
An example: The "Young Collectors Set" for the American Bald Eagle.....less than 22,000 sold for $14.95 each ... now selling for twice that amount, if you can find one for sale...
<< <i>As reported on another thread:
Weekly sales reported 11/16/2008
Unc-W plats:
$100 - 1 ounce - 2834
$50 - .5 ounce - 3226
$25 - .25 ounce - 4280
$10 - .1 ounce - 4669
Includes sales of 4 coin sets - 2165
People can speculate all they want how the numbers are wrong, BUT at the end of the day the numbers could hold true.
I know these numbers are a lie. But it seems that the mint has no accountability to maintain accurate records and so you may be right and these numbers may stand.
Almost every year I read about new information "coming to light" that indicates some published mintage value to be in error.
Many coins must be unaccounted for at the mint every year.
The proofs are going to be on sale for a long time...the numbers are high considering there is still 6 months to go on the sales. They most likely did a full run on those so there is plenty to sell. I would wait unless you are a collector who loves the plat proof coins.
<< <i>When I bought the 2006 UNC-W's from the mint we all went through the same crap. The $100 or 1 ounce coin jumped up 500 coins a couple months after the sell out. It is best to play this as if the numbers are true and 2006 will remain the King of the series. If you are a collector who loves the coins then that is fun BUT to by on speculation with the above numbers being reported would not be a wise decision.
The proofs are going to be on sale for a long time...the numbers are high considering there is still 6 months to go on the sales. They most likely did a full run on those so there is plenty to sell. I would wait unless you are a collector who loves the plat proof coins. >>
I agree. These may still prove to be good, but I wouldn't count on it. The gold offerings are a much better choice IMO.
The only sales numbers that are believable are those that were captured at the point of items going "backorder" status
Those were -
1/10 - 2046 (date of backorder status)
1/4 - 615 (possibly 1 day prior to backorder status)
4 cn sets - 1257 (date of backorder status)
ANY SALES beyond these numbers need to be confirmed by RECEIVED coins. Nothing substantial of the 1300-1500 orders for 1/4's have been rec'd since 10/21.
Now think about this thread post in light of the facts above.........
Hoard the keys.
1/10th oz - 3,761
1/4th oz - 3,372
1/2 oz - 2,106
1 oz - 1,680
Eric J's totals from Nov 16 Weekly Sales Report (includes 2,165 sets):
1/10th oz - 4,669
1/4th oz - 4,280
1/2 oz - 3,226
1 oz - 2,834
Totals per 7over8 at time of backorder status (including sets):
1/10th oz - 3,303
1/4th oz - 1,872
4-coin set - 1,257
Looking at the set totals that have been published, NN gives the number as 1,257. Eric J gives a number of 2,165. Is it possible that the 2,165 is a juxtaposition and that Eric's real number is 1,265 - a difference of exactly 900?
NNs numbers for the 1/10 oz and 1/4 oz coins are the same as Eric's - if you subtract the 900 questionable sets from a juxtaposition. The 1/2 oz and 1 oz numbers are only off by a couple hundred, indicating to me that the compilations for those two in Eric's data were done later.
Since the set totals were pretty consistant over several weeks, I suspect the juxtaposition. The NN set totals during October-November were:
Oct. 21 Issue - 453
Oct. 28 Issue - 453
--Ordering Resumed--
Nov. 4 Issue - 668 (215 increase)
Nov. 11 Issue - 1,053 (385 increase)
Nov. 18 Issue - 1,191 (138 increase)
Nov. 25 Issue - 1,257 (66 increase)
Nov. 16 Mint Report 2,165
I received my Nov. 25 Issue today (Nov. 19), 6 days before the publication date. It's probable that it was hot off the press 2 or 3 days ago. That puts the Nov. 16 Mint Report from Eric and the Nov. 25 NN Report easily within 24 hours of each other, and if you account for a 900 quantity juxtaposition, their numbers are very close.
In other words, both reports show identical numbers for 1/10th oz and 1/4th oz coins and a discrepancy of only a couple hundred more coins in each the 1/2 oz and the 1 oz. So my guess is that the bigger denominations got updated a bit later after Eric got his data. That makes sense, because of the lag time for delivery of NN.
I'm saying that the most current set number is 1,265 instead of 2,165.
I think that 7over8's data is also important. While the adjusted data from NN and Eric gives us a top end estimate, 7over8 is providing a perspective that might be closer to the final numbers. Just because the order totals are increasing does not mean that the coins will ever be shipped. The "going dark" information gives us a starting point for the end game numbers.
Sorry for all the edits. I wanted to be more accurate and clear about my conclusions.
I knew it would happen.
1/10th oz - 3,761
1/4th oz - 3,372
1/2 oz - 2,106
1 oz - 1,680
These numbers you are showing were actually reported last Thursday in the threads...sounds like NN has not called the Mint to update the numbers?
Check your redbook & report any numbers under these & their values to date.
No-brainer.
good post.
as for the 1/4 oz unc at 615, there was some discrepancy about what date the number was taken. NN had Oct 20, Eric said that the USM Marketing Dept said 10/21. Both late afternoon or evening.
10/21 at around 5pm was backorder begin time for the 1/4 oz unc. 615 could have easily become 800-900 pieces by that time.
So if we use 900 pieces as a guide, 1200+ orders taken and not filled, post backorder status.
<< <i>My experience has always been that if you want to take advantage of possible low mintage coins due to a lack of orders, you NEVER bring it to the attention of the boards. >>
Exactly, ever since the 2006 anny's there has been a pattern to this. Any mention of a possible low mintage and the orders go through the roof. The 2008's now seem to be on track for the highest mintage of the plats.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
<< <i>
<< <i>My experience has always been that if you want to take advantage of possible low mintage coins due to a lack of orders, you NEVER bring it to the attention of the boards. >>
Exactly, ever since the 2006 anny's there has been a pattern to this. Any mention of a possible low mintage and the orders go through the roof. The 2008's now seem to be on track for the highest mintage of the plats. >>
Except that we know the mintage was already fixed, we just need to find out where it was fixed. Can't fault anyone here.
<< <i>
<< <i>My experience has always been that if you want to take advantage of possible low mintage coins due to a lack of orders, you NEVER bring it to the attention of the boards. >>
Exactly, ever since the 2006 anny's there has been a pattern to this. Any mention of a possible low mintage and the orders go through the roof. The 2008's now seem to be on track for the highest mintage of the plats. >>
There is no chance for the 08's to be higher than the 07's and only a small chance that they will be larger than the 06's. If you think that the 08's are higher it is because you have not been following them very closely and are reading erroneous sales figures.
Once the mint counts the hamburgers and cancels orders this will all be cleared up....
Someday.
<< <i>The mint has only so many coins to sell, sales can soar but they can eventually only be what they had available to sell. I think we are seeing soaring sales in the sales report and that is the problem, but it is not what the mint produced IMO. It's kind of like 10 people ordering hamburgers when their are only five available, some will go hungry.
Once the mint counts the hamburgers and cancels orders this will all be cleared up....
Someday.
<< THE WEEKLY SALES REPORT IS ORDERS NOT SHIPMENTS-THIS IS FROM THE MINT. >>
Quoted from EricJ96.....
No worries... 7over8 was right all along.
7over8:
<< <i>there were several orders placed by friends of mine at varying intervals after backorder status on the 1/10 and 1/4 unc-w's.
the first 5:30pm, the next few a few hours later, the next on Wed, 10/23 around noon. all are orders of 25-50 coins each for the 1/4.
none of the orders have been filled. not even partially. but, unbelievably, the USM sales report leaps ~1500 coins.
same with the 1/10. orders placed at sellout, hours later, the next day. none filled. again, unbelievably, the USM sales reports leaps ~500 coins.
all orders still backorder status, slipping day by day.
we are waiting for cancellations of all of those orders, or smaller orders to be filled by returns.
in any case, the sales figures should start to show big declines once returns start pouring in, these mostly from speculators (the so called - weak hands) that are not willing to float the purchase beyond one month and not be able to return the items if they hold.
the orders to take the returned items are already in queue, hence the total sales reported should begin to drop. they will only drop by the amount of returns (since the USM has to "cancel" the original order taken because of return)
at some point in the future, orders taken but not filled by returns will be cancelled.
then the sales report should match the net coins minted (as long as all inventory is exhausted) >>
groht5:
Here is where the Mint could very well screw us all like they did in 2006. They could be minting to the demand of the back orders. It is suspected they did that in 2006 and that is why there was a 500 coin jump in the mintage total of the 1 ounce coin.
<< <i>The mint has only so many coins to sell, sales can soar but they can eventually only be what they had available to sell. I think we are seeing soaring sales in the sales report and that is the problem, but it is not what the mint produced IMO. It's kind of like 10 people ordering hamburgers when their are only five available, some will go hungry.
Once the mint counts the hamburgers and cancels orders this will all be cleared up....
Someday.
SOYLENT GREEN IS PLATINUMS!
The USM is very specific when they state "We are re-offering the Platinum American Eagle Coins that will be availabe until AVAILABLE STOCK IS SOLD"
They backed this statement up by saying just before the last chance sales that "Platinum Unc-W coins will be discontinued after this year's issue". "Remaining stock will be sold until June, 2009".
Please be aware that "REMAINING STOCK" has been stated twice publicly.
In a normal year, backorder's taken on a series minted to demand never took more than a few weeks to fill. The backordered 1/4 and 1/10 have been not filled for 31 days and all orders are pushed into December (I think the 8th at this point). These would be filled already, even in a "reminting" situation.
The USM is very busy with 2009 bullion issues that get released in early Jan.
Now take the factual info that I have provided, think of the % possibility the USM did exactly opposite of what they said, start to mint a closed issue, and are not focusing on 2009 bullion issues at this late date in the year.
IMO, my take on the possibility - - - - less than 5% chance.
Friday, November 21, 2008
2008-W Platinum Eagle Sales Figures
With the 2008-W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle 4 Coin Set recently sold out, we can now start to piece together rough numbers for some of the sold out individual coins.
Many collectors have been intensely focusing on these numbers. When the 2008-W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles first went back on sale the numbers were low enough to create the possibility of a new key date for the series.
Listed below are the sales figures for 2008-W Uncirculated and Proof Platinum Eagles. The most recently published Mint Stats from Numismaster contains sales data through November 16. Since the 4 Coin Set sold out a few days after that, the number may still increase slightly from these levels.
The first column displays the amount for the ordering option. The second column displays the total for each coin (individual sales plus 4 coin set sales). Coins which are sold out and no longer available from the US Mint are listed in bold.
2008-W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle Sales Figures
Individual Combined
1 oz. 669 2,834
1/2 oz. 1,061 3,226
1/4 oz. 2,027 4,192
1/10 oz. 2,504 4,669
4 Coin Set 2,165 N/A
2008 Proof Platinum Eagle Sales Figures
Individual Combined
1 oz. 1,865 3,736
1/2 oz. 927 2,798
1/4 oz. 1,157 3,028
1/10 oz. 2,528 4,399
4 Coin Set 1,871 N/A
The previous key date for the series are the 2006-W Uncirculated Platinum Eagles. For comparison, the mintages for each coin appear below. These amounts are not yet "official mintages" but represent the last release sales figures for that year.
2006-W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle Mintages
Individual Combined
1 Ounce 1,079 3,068
1/2 Ounce 588 2,577
1/4 Ounce 687 2,676
1/10 Ounce 1,555 3,544
4 Coin Set 1,989
As you can see, the sold out 2008-W coins all ended up ahead of the 2006-W numbers. However, with mintages below 5,000, the numbers are still quite low. The coins could see some appreciation as collectors seem to be finding a renewed interest in the series. Notably, the 2008-W 1 oz. coin is still below the mintage level of the 2006-W.
Didn't we already go through these numbers as "orders" and not actual coins minted. I'm reading this article and all I see are the reported "sales" from the mint that we have been pondering in earnest for the last week. Straight from the Mint: THE WEEKLY SALES REPORT IS ORDERS-NOT SHIPMENTS. I highly doubt we have over two thousand 4 coin sets minted. And 1000 more halves than 1/4's... Nah.
Groht, with all of this neg press are you trying to grab some of these on the return or what?
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
<< <i>Man,
Didn't we already go through these numbers as "orders" and not actual coins minted. I'm reading this article and all I see are the reported "sales" from the mint that we have been pondering in earnest for the last week. Straight from the Mint: THE WEEKLY SALES REPORT IS ORDERS-NOT SHIPMENTS. I highly doubt we have over two thousand 4 coin sets minted. And 1000 more halves than 1/4's... Nah.
Groht, with all of this neg press are you trying to grab some of these on the return or what?
For sure he has ulterior motives. Good catch!