How long do we have...
renman95
Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
...to accumulate PM's at "recession" prices until inflation flares up like a cold sore?
Ren
Ren
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<< <i>November 19th for silver, if the rumors are true.
Is that when the double-secret-probation is over?
<< <i>
<< <i>November 19th for silver, if the rumors are true.
Is that when the double-secret-probation is over? >>
December COMEX futures come due on November 20th.
Feel free to draw your own conclusions.
Personally, I see two likely scenarios. Time will tell.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Everyone wants their investment to quadruple in 2 weeks. Yes I agree with others that silver will be $40 an ounce but it isnt happening in the next 4 weeks.
Right now, I dont even have any silver. Buying it as cheaply as possible and when it comes in, I put an ad on CL for $2 to $3 an ounce higher than I paid, and in 2 hours poof its gone. Then, I buy more as cheaply aspossible and repeat. Going to keep doing this until they stop responding to the CL ads. There are people getting $20 to $22 a coin on CL, and I am buying for $13-$14 and selling for $16-$17.
Cold sore inflation might take a little longer than that. But at that stage we'll be looking at $1500+ gold.
roadrunner
down slide so far.. If we are in a true recession. Inflation will not occur with any real meaning.
Some areas may see it. But the core inflation percent should go down. The Fed's may be pumping money
into the financial markets at a record amount. But the unemployment % keeps rising. Jobless people are
not going to spend money....
I am just looking forward to the awesome deals this holiday season.....
Consumer Price Index
October 16, 2008
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was virtually unchanged (0.0 percent) in September following a 0.1 percent decrease in August. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.2 percent in August.
<< <i>If under 2 dollar gas and under 3 dollar milk means inflation. I'm on board. The CPI seems to be on a
down slide so far.. If we are in a true recession. Inflation will not occur with any real meaning.
Some areas may see it. But the core inflation percent should go down. The Fed's may be pumping money
into the financial markets at a record amount. But the unemployment % keeps rising. Jobless people are
not going to spend money....
I am just looking forward to the awesome deals this holiday season.....
Consumer Price Index
October 16, 2008
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was virtually unchanged (0.0 percent) in September following a 0.1 percent decrease in August. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.2 percent in August. >>
I agree that $2 gas and etc. is not inflation for now.
I would venture that most on this thread are looking beyond this recession-thingy and see huge inflation due to the bazillions of $$ being printed day and night to bailout the bozos.
Those $$ are not backed by anything...not even good faith. Our dollar will be less than fiat because at some time in the future it may not be accepted as a means of payment.
How much will PM's be at that point in time?
Ren
and comex isn't going to default in a few weeks.. that's a dopey Y2K like thing if you ask me.
the premiums will die off, and it'll sit at whatever price they tell us it is until the proverbial button gets pushed.. it's the beginning of the end of an empire.... this is gonna be entertaining
<< <i>5-12 months when it's obvious that metals are moving again.
Cold sore inflation might take a little longer than that. But at that stage we'll be looking at $1500+ gold.
roadrunner >>
I've been saying March '09 for some time now. That fits in well with your 5 month starting point.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>5-12 months when it's obvious that metals are moving again.
Cold sore inflation might take a little longer than that. But at that stage we'll be looking at $1500+ gold.
roadrunner >>
I've been saying March '09 for some time now. That fits in well with your 5 month starting point. >>
You say March 2009, that kind of jells with my 4,500 Dow and 425 S&P500 thread floating around. It means, hypothetically, a greater disaster blew up in are faces and people are so scared they ran to the metals and didn't wait for the inevitable inflation.
<< <i>my question is how long will these big premiums hang around until we finally realize that this is it for now
and comex isn't going to default in a few weeks.. that's a dopey Y2K like thing if you ask me.
the premiums will die off, and it'll sit at whatever price they tell us it is until the proverbial button gets pushed.. it's the beginning of the end of an empire.... this is gonna be entertaining >>
I have rarely said anything like this before regarding a post................. but I honestly don't think you have a clue to much of anything.
No, the COMEX won't default on Dec. futures contracts, but it will deplete them and send out warning sirens. Come the March futures(Feb.20, 2009) I believe we will begin to see a major unravelling and metals seeking their correct values unbound by the current rigging. After all, they have over 4 times as many delivery contracts than they have the actual metal.
It won't happen overnight, but it will be a new dawn. Anyone who has followed silver can tell you how it can skyrocket in an unfettered market. India has over 3 million ounces backordered currently and they can't get delivery at any cost. That's right, they can't fill orders at any cost because the vaults dont have the product to ship. Anyone who follows this market knows that nearly everything is wrong with it at this time, but just the same, we know it can't continue much longer.
The bull will again start to roar after this temporary manipulated kneecapping.
BTW, premiums are here to stay. Lesser percentages of course. but they are here to stay. Silver really is becoming scarce. Time to pay the piper for 15 years of usage far exceeding production. Then we can consider that production for '08 is 70% down from '07, I don't see how that can bode well for new supply.
Those who flipped for a small profit recently will be sorry they did when they see what could have been had they just sit tight for a few more months.
*edited for spelling*
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>5-12 months when it's obvious that metals are moving again.
Cold sore inflation might take a little longer than that. But at that stage we'll be looking at $1500+ gold.
roadrunner >>
I've been saying March '09 for some time now. That fits in well with your 5 month starting point. >>
You say March 2009, that kind of jells with my 4,500 Dow and 425 S&P500 thread floating around. It means, hypothetically, a greater disaster blew up in our faces and people are so scared they ran to the metals and didn't wait for the inevitable inflation. >>
I think that's a fair assesment. BTW, I fixed your "are" to "our".
Don't know about 4500 DOW by then, but I've been saying 6000 for some time, with a drop below that in the future. 4500 would be a real backbreaker this soon, not that it's totally out of the question.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
R
<< <i>
<< <i>my question is how long will these big premiums hang around until we finally realize that this is it for now
and comex isn't going to default in a few weeks.. that's a dopey Y2K like thing if you ask me.
the premiums will die off, and it'll sit at whatever price they tell us it is until the proverbial button gets pushed.. it's the beginning of the end of an empire.... this is gonna be entertaining >>
I have rarely said anything like this before regarding a post................. but I honestly don't think you have a clue to much of anything. >>
i was wondering who my first friend here would be... hey there deadhorse, i cant wait to get to know ya
<< <i>No, the COMEX won't default on Dec. futures contracts, but it will deplete them and send out warning sirens. Come the March futures(Feb.20, 2009) I believe we will begin to see a major unravelling and metals seeking their correct values unbound by the current rigging. After all, they have over 4 times as many delivery contracts than they have the actual metal. >>
so where's the argument.. this has nothing to do with what i said, you're just typing. metals seeking their correct values is inevitable.. i didn't say they wouldn't. it's a matter of time and that's all i was talking about.
<< <i>It won't happen overnight, but it will be a new dawn. Anyone who has followed silver can tell you how it can skyrocket in an infettered market. India has over 3 million ounces backordered currently and they can't get delivery at any cost. That's right, they can't fill orders at any cost because the vaults dont have the product to ship. Anyone who follows this market knows that nearly everything is wrong with it at this time, but just the same, we know it can't continue much longer. >>
right
<< <i>The bull will again start to roar after this temporary manipulated kneecapping. >>
deep
<< <i>BTW, premiums are here to stay. Lesser percentages of course. but they are here to stay. Silver really is becoming scarce. Time to pay the piper for 15 years of usage far exceeding production. Then we can consider that production for '07 is 70% down from '06, I don't see how that can bode well for new supply. >>
people have been saying that for years, minus the premiums.. i'm tired of hearing it. half the people think this, the other half thinks that and that's it... pure speculation and nothing more. there's a bigger picture to consider i think..
<< <i>Those who flipped for a small profit recently will be sorry they did when they see what could have been had they just sit tight for a few more months. >>
so you're just one guy with an opinion.. telling me what's up, as if it's correct. settle down with yourself... or at least give me something to work with, are you drunk? that was weak.
I would think that with such developments those "shorts" would be buying silver to cover their positions, and those "in the know" would also be buying silver and pushing up prices.
But... it ain't happening, is it?
Please explain why?
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
roadrunner and Deadhorse would know in details.
We had a "looming" derivatives crisis for the past 6 years, yet it took to mid-2007 to really highlight it. So why weren't the effects being seen in the market place until BSC blew up if most major financial players knew it was coming? (and they did). I can't answer that other than to say that TPTB wanted to keep their blinders on as long as possible (ie until the flood waters they couldn't see started reaching their chins). I see the metal shortages as much the same. Shorting paper futures and creating derivatives is one way to keep the published metal prices at bay. Metal dealers and producers apparently would rather pull their horns in right now than continue to bid physical metal prices higher. It's going to take a default or emptying of the Comex vaults to prove to J6P that there is indeed a real metal shortage. It would seem that today's markets are set up to delay giving off alarm bells as long as possible. The PPT is here to help in that regard. The goal is to keep the sheeple into paper assets until the flood waters are over their heads. If it's only up to their chins they can be convinced by the govt. that it's for their own good and nothing to be alarmed about.
I for one can't see why that after months of a silver shortage that 1000 oz bars have been melted and remade into 1-100 oz units to satisfy consumer demand. So where are all these 1000 oz bars if there is no shortage? Bad money (FRN's) has driven away good money (physical Ag and Au) from the markets. Until paper prices are more in line with physical, one would expect to see a shortage of the metals.
roadrunner
<< <i>I for one can't see why that after months of a silver shortage that 1000 oz bars have been melted and remade into 1-100 oz units to satisfy consumer demand. So where are all these 1000 oz bars if there is no shortage?
roadrunner >>
Quick answer; There aren't near as many of those bars as have been reported. They appear on many different sets of books. They have been leased out multiple times, as I'm sure you already know. The COMEX alone has over 4 times as many futures contracts due as they have physical silver. Worse, SLV has leased all of that as well as the London vaults. Even SLV can't sell them as they are leased to many different entities.
Another quesion; India is willing to pay as much as $18 per ounce for 3 milion ounces in any form and they can't buy it from anywhere. They've been trying for months to no avail and they're willing to pay shipping. If there is no shortage, why hasn't some enterprising investor been able to buy them up at the absurd paper price or even a nice premium over that manipulated price and made a killing shipping to India?
The answer should be obvious to all by now.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
roadrunner
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
The crisis you talk about is only weeks away, and not years away.
That was my point. When the derivatives crisis finally got to the point of only being weeks or days away from exploding there was no advance warning to the market place by looking at price action of stocks, bonds, silver, gold, etc. It should be no different for true shortages in the metals.
roadrunner
<< <i>India is willing to pay as much as $18 per ounce for 3 milion ounces in any form and they can't buy it from anywhere. >>
What does this mean? "India" is willing to buy? Where does this information come from? And why don't they just buy it domestically. There are hundreds of millions of ounces of silver in India.
CG
<< <i>
<< <i>India is willing to pay as much as $18 per ounce for 3 milion ounces in any form and they can't buy it from anywhere. >>
What does this mean? "India" is willing to buy? Where does this information come from? And why don't they just buy it domestically. There are hundreds of millions of ounces of silver in India.
CG >>
Jewelry manufacturers who have purchased from the London exchange for many years can no longer get delivery and haven't been able to for several months.
They normally purchased in very large guantities, it simply is no longer available(nor practical domestically).
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I want to know why silver has shot up like a rocket while these rumors about a silver crisis have been flooding the Internet. I see all sorts of talk about this crisis and shortage, YET I see no increase in the price of silver. As you point out, silver has been stuck in a trading range.
Shouldnt silver be at $25 or $50 or higher if the rumors have some fact behind them?
A price jump would make me believe the rumors. Otherwise, its more Internet and "silver bug" trash.
But you can convince me to change my mind. Just show me.
Since you are also a chartist you know that price changes precede news, and charts tell the true story. So, where is the change in price? You admit to a trading range, and that is not proof of anything dramatic.
Your information to clear this up will be appreciated. I am all ears (eyes). Thanks.
And I differ with you about the lack of acvance price movements for the financial crisis. The stock market, for one, was in a bear market sell off for months before the headlines hit.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
"It is surprising that the precious metals prices have declined in this period of economic unrest. Clearly, the lack of physical inventories of bullion silver in smaller denominations shows that demand for silver is very strong, and I believe that we should see increased demand for precious metals during this time of economic and global uncertainty."
Note that it only mentions small denomination bullion. No mention of any world-wide shortage of silver as a whole. No claim that they can sell physical silver at a price higher than spot market prices. No mention about India. Bear in mind this is a statement from a producer of silver that knows the market.
Sounds more like the fabricators did not fabricate the proper product mix. Sort of like the auto industry building gas guzzling SUVs when they should have been building hybrids.
CG
<< <i>This is from a Hecla Mining press release:
"It is surprising that the precious metals prices have declined in this period of economic unrest. Clearly, the lack of physical inventories of bullion silver in smaller denominations shows that demand for silver is very strong, and I believe that we should see increased demand for precious metals during this time of economic and global uncertainty."
Note that it only mentions small denomination bullion. No mention of any world-wide shortage of silver as a whole. No claim that they can sell physical silver at a price higher than spot market prices. No mention about India. Bear in mind this is a statement from a producer of silver that knows the market.
Sounds more like the fabricators did not fabricate the proper product mix. Sort of like the auto industry building gas guzzling SUVs when they should have been building hybrids.
CG >>
Sounds an awful lot like a CYA press release to me.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
If the perpetrators of these rumors were spreading the same sort of rumors about banks, federal law could send them to prison.
and for those of you who are bullish on silver now and believe these rumors without substantiation, I think you are grasping at straws and your heads are filled with wishful thinking.
However, being a journalist I am always open to proof and evidence. If you got it, show it. If you don't, go away.
And this is probably why the mainstream media has not picked up on the rumors... because they are irresponsible and probably designed to recruit suckers.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>...to accumulate PM's at "recession" prices until inflation flares up like a cold sore?
Ren >>
T. Boone Pickens predicts oil will be $100+ within one year if that helps.
<< <i>As I posted above, the Internet is now filled with reports of a rumored silver crisis and default, with commodity contracts going unfilled. frankly, until I see some reasonable proof, or realistic evidence, I will dismiss the claims as bogus and BS.
If the perpetrators of these rumors were spreading the same sort of rumors about banks, federal law could send them to prison.
and for those of you who are bullish on silver now and believe these rumors without substantiation, I think you are grasping at straws and your heads are filled with wishful thinking.
However, being a journalist I am always open to proof and evidence. If you got it, show it. If you don't, go away.
And this is probably why the mainstream media has not picked up on the rumors... because they are irresponsible and probably designed to recruit suckers. >>
Very well said MoneyLA. There are solid economic reasons to buy - or sell - PMs at any given time, but they must be based on a realistic analysis of big picture and small picture fundamentals. Internet rumors and wishful thinking will not cut it.
That said, no one could have predicted the fall of Bear, Lehman., Fannie Freddie... the stuff being talked about is a drop in the bucket compared with those also very unlikely events. So we cannot rule it out... though I do not base my investing strategy on anonymous internet rumors.
<< <i>
<< <i>...to accumulate PM's at "recession" prices until inflation flares up like a cold sore?
Ren >>
T. Boone Pickens predicts oil will be $100+ within one year if that helps. >>
TBP has been very accurate over his life time, but he also has a pony in the race.
You can't overlook the rise in PM lease rates, and the inability of mints around the world to produce and provide product. They've all sold way more product in previous years without supply problems, and now all of a sudden they can't meet demand?
Some day soon the selling and unwinding will draw down, and the price of PM's will jump huge overnight.
I don't know when it will happen, but my instinct is pointing to April 09 but it could happen any day now.
The "proof" is in the prices.
When I see PM prices shoot up, I will start to "suspect" some truth in the rumors.
For now, they're all BS. And attempts to sell silver and newsletter and Internet subscriptions to unsuspecting consumers.
Now, go back to work and earn a living.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>Low PM prices despite the massive demand for physical material >>
If this was the case, other than demand for small denomination fabrictaed bullion, the producers would be raising their prices. Instead, the prices at which they have been able to sell their output have been declining. See for example the Hecla Mining earnings reports and press release. Small investors buying a few one ounce rounds at a throw just do not make up a large enough part of the world market to move the price back up, but perhaps that demand plus speculation accounts for the price remaining as high as it is.
CG
You Calfornia guys think the same I guess. I just don't see the dollar being where it is in 2009 and that in itself will light a rocket under PM's if it falls back to where it was. Ever hear of buy on the dips, well this is one of those times.
BTW gold is at near high in most countries due to devaluation of their currencies. Your bet here is the dollar is cheap or it will retain it's value which in my view is a fools bet in the not so near future. The world is already meeting to fix world issues and the US isn't in the drivers seat on this one, the dollar is about to turn tail and run.
We have a conundrum. No physical evidence other than a trend is in place until proven otherwise. There are millions of "experts" smarter than me and if they think there are issues with silver in the future the metal would rise. But then again the experts didn't predict the credit crunch cascade effect on the stock market since the summer. I did, but not to the extent. The evidence seemed obvious to me.
I think we may all underestimate the amount of commodity selling by entities to raise cash. Those who had the metals are just holding. This morning I called the local BM for a friend who wants to buy some gold. She said none to be had even in small amounts and she brokers from a well known distributor. I don't what to make of all of this other than something is not right. One or more of the normal indicators is lying. But than again we are not in normal times.
So back to the OP, we have some time (how much is not for certain) to accumulate PM's. I know I won't put any $$ into equities. I don't have the stomach for this right now because I don't "feel" it over the next year.
Ren
<< <i>The proof is in the lease rates. The large holders of PM's are increasingly less willing to loan out their supplies. I think if you plot lease rates vs. gold prices, there's ALWAYS a huge spike in gold prices a few months after the lease rates rise. Makes sense to me. >>
Shhhhh! The naysayers will be out to get you. You should just keep this to yourself.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Institutions are increasingly unwilling to lend anything to anyone right now. No one trusts anyone's credit, and they all expect any borrower's financial condition to worsen in the current economy. So you need to know whether any trend in PM leasing may be attributed to credit concerns rather than to expectations concerning the future price of PMs.
CG
You'll find the charts here.
Other Kitco.com data shows a drop in silver lease rates today, with a comment that this drop shows a lack of demand for leasing silver.
Please put this into perspective for me. thanks.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>I was curious about the comments about lease rates, and checked the charts on Kitco.com and they show lease rates declining for the past week... just as more Internet postings were being made about the so-called upcoming crisis about silver deliveries.
You'll find the charts here.
Other Kitco.com data shows a drop in silver lease rates today, with a comment that this drop shows a lack of demand for leasing silver.
Please put this into perspective for me. thanks. >>
I tried wrapping my head around silver lease rates and what they mean
for silver investors in this thread.
Some have opined that the proof of a looming silver crisis is in the silver lease rates. But to me, declining silver lease rates have no link to a crisis or failure to deliver contracts, or shortage.... or do they?
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
I found an article which I just posted here: Thread
I had heard about manipulation and I suspected it might be true but never put much stock into it since it seemed a little over-the-top to me and I couldn't fathom the extent of the manipulation. But now that I see that article - wow - the manipulation is incredible. I can see why prices are artificially low. The thing I have to wonder now is what will be the catalyst to turn prices around? The market can only be manipulated so far - eventually the manipulators will have to cover their positions, right? If this is the case, the rubber band is stretched awfully far to the down side, when it releases it should be amazing.
sigh...
<< <i><<If the perpetrators of these rumors were spreading the same sort of rumors about banks, federal law could send them to prison.>> >>
Pitifully you are correct....you can commit criminal acts if you are an inside Wall Streeter and get paid big time for it......but don't spread vicious rumors......what a terrible thing.
Better to scr$w the American Public out of BILLIONS.......after all, the unwashed masses deserve it, don't they?
If you want to see Manipulation, open your eyes...it is everywhere, and guess who is losing the game.
Reread the previous sentence, think about it and repeat until you have it.
We are being manipulated in ways you can't think of and more ways are being dreamed up at this very moment.
If you cannot see it, then I don't know what you're looking at.
<< <i>What I am really looking for is an explanation about why silver lease rates have been dropping during the past week, even as talk increases about a looming silver crisis?
Some have opined that the proof of a looming silver crisis is in the silver lease rates. But to me, declining silver lease rates have no link to a crisis or failure to deliver contracts, or shortage.... or do they? >>
Allow me to post this bit:
"Why did Buffett's buying add 50% to the spot price but add 7000% to lease rates? The answer is that silver owners on COMEX couldn't lease their silver out and deliver it to Buffett at the same time. Buffett created a huge shortage in the lease silver market by calling for delivery. "
This has basically been the only thing I have taken away as a sign of what silver lease rates mean for me.
That someone wanted so much physical silver the lenders could not lease it and rates spiked.
These piddly 1-3% rates are normal fluctuations. 5-6% might be more interesting as a sign of something happening.
There was no silver shortage. Only small investor sized bars were unavailable. Large 1000 oz bars were always
available over the last few months on many bullion seller websites. And now even the smaller sizes are catching
up with demand. Just browse any bullion website and see (apmex for example).
If there was a true problem on the horizon and every tom, dick, and harry was demanding delivery, silver lease rates
would sky rocket to new peaks. Since they are not... there is no shortage.
i understand it that simply. rumors and PMs go hand in hand right now. people believe the stuff they read from
these news letters as gospel. A mix of fact and fiction which is the proper blend to get the PT Barnum atmosphere
in high gear.
I am very thankful there is at least a few other skeptical posters on this board. Otherwise it would simply
be a cheerleader squad for gold bug mailing lists.