Gold on the move tonight - 10/19
ProofCollection
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Gold appears to be on the move tonight... up to $802+ on early trading (Dec futures), silver following behind with a $.25+ gain.
I think Monday's going to be a $20-50 day for gold. Regardless, I'm predicting $850+ by the end of the week.
I think Monday's going to be a $20-50 day for gold. Regardless, I'm predicting $850+ by the end of the week.
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Wall Street and the Banking industry have plans for either possibility.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I've noticed that the prices on the overseas markets have very little correlation to the closing price the next day. >>
That is unfortunately true.
However the trend for gold is to be in the trading range of 800-950 so tonight's increase in spot trading merely puts gold back into that trading range.
as far as action in the metals market goes, its a big yawn.
but you permabulls will consider it a great event. chill out. it's not.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Can you name 1 single perma-bull who posts regularly here? You know, the type that have held their gold since the peak in 1980. Please don't confuse people who watch the metals prices closely and also invest in them as "perma-bulls." Warren Buffet, George Bush, Alan Greespan, and others would qualify under that same definition. I have no doubts that all of them have sizeable stashes under their control....esp. Mr. Greenspam.
The PPT will ensure that they knock gold back down from the Asian overseas move. Considering we just gave them a blank check book with over a TRILLION in spending power, they have momentum in their favor through the election period.
Let's not forget that morning CRIMEX trading is typically always down for gold in the 9:30-11 am period. It's no coincidence, esp considering gold has more than tripled. The PPT finishes their Cheerios at 9:15 and then gets to work. Their mistake is occasionally going to play golf in the afternoons and leaving the hen house unguarded.
roadrunner
if one understands it, i suppose one could make a tidy sum with this "predictable" fluctuation in pricing????
I enjoyed the fifty dollar rally that was forecasted for today. oops.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>okay roadrunner, you and proofcollection are "newpermabulls."
I enjoyed the fifty dollar rally that was forecasted for today. oops. >>
Yeah...some one needs to shine their crystal ball...
Oh, well, it's up by $.10 in the overseas markets
MoneyLA, you might want to actually read the posts around here before commenting as it would make you look more intelligent. Since I didn't predict a $50 upmove today, but actually no move your argument is pretty empty. In fact I've been calling for retracements as the most likely outcomes for the past several weeks, first to $850 and then further down to possibly under $800. If you didn't spend so much time away maybe you could stay up with the discussion once in a while. But it's nice to have you as a card-carrying member of the perma-shorts club.
Why actions today are inflationary rather than deflationary - H. Katz
roadrunner
you might want to read the first post of this thread...
here it is.... written last night....
"Gold appears to be on the move tonight... up to $802+ on early trading (Dec futures), silver following behind with a $.25+ gain.
I think Monday's going to be a $20-50 day for gold. Regardless, I'm predicting $850+ by the end of the week."
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Last night and today's action looked promising but fizzled out. Things don't always go as expected. There was a gap at $792 that needed to be filled.
It's now clear that the third re-test of the $792 area is necessary. This will probably happen tonight. At that point we should be in for a very quick move to $850.
As far as being a perma-bull, that is not the case. This thread is only calling for a short term move of $20-$50. If I thought gold was going to fall $50 tomorrow, I would post as such. I make money trading futures contracts in both directions. What is your definition of perma-bull?
Yes, and by using this "TA" of nature, the anti-gold pundits have been "right" on gold 2 times in the past 7 years: April '06 and March '08. You gotta figure that after badmouthing gold for 7 years they would have been right more than twice. Maybe if they used the clock's second hand as well they might be right a 3rd time someday?
roadrunner
<< <i>Yeah, yeah....as the saying goes "even a broken clock showes the correct time twice a day."
Yes, and by using this "TA" of nature, the anti-gold pundits have been "right" on gold 2 times in the past 7 years: April '06 and March '08. You gotta figure that after badmouthing gold for 7 years they would have been right more than twice. Maybe if they used the clock's second hand as well they might be right a 3rd time someday?
roadrunner >>
That's about the same number of times the bulls (perma or otherwise) have been right in the past 30 years.
<< <i>It's now clear that the third re-test of the $792 area is necessary. This will probably happen tonight. At that point we should be in for a very quick move to $850. >>
The $792 area cleared w/o problem...down - $27 to $767 as of today, I'm waiting for the $750 bottom. What's your call if it drops below $750?
<< <i>
<< <i>Yeah, yeah....as the saying goes "even a broken clock showes the correct time twice a day."
Yes, and by using this "TA" of nature, the anti-gold pundits have been "right" on gold 2 times in the past 7 years: April '06 and March '08. You gotta figure that after badmouthing gold for 7 years they would have been right more than twice. Maybe if they used the clock's second hand as well they might be right a 3rd time someday?
roadrunner >>
That's about the same number of times the bulls (perma or otherwise) have been right in the past 30 years.
Friend your in a world of hurt if you think this is 1979/80, you better back up to the 30's. The chart reader will get killed just like they did at Y2K when all the "black boxes" buy/sell programs couldn't kick in to make the charts accurate IMO. When Wallstreet has control you know what to expect but when they lose control, watch out below. This is a time to protect your assests not to try to shoot the moon IMO unless your in your 20's or early 30's. The last time this happened from the peak/drop of the stock market in 1929 it was 1954 before it was at the level again, that's a long time to wait unless your young.
Ahh, the classic 30 year argument again! This standing joke gets trotted out during every up and down mini-cycle. You'd think after this has been discredited dozens of times over the past 7 years the perm-shorts would just give up. What is not seen is that metals are on the right side of their 20 yr trend while equities are on the wrong side of their 25 year trend. Oops...never thought of that!
Considering the vast majority of us gold watchers here on the forum didn't start participating until 1999-2004, the 30 yr. argument only holds for those in suspended animation, Austin Powers, and Japanese WW2 soldiers still hiding out in Pacific islands (lol). Ironically, the same 30 yr argument is taking a monster toll on stocks right now, but on the bad side of the trend. Sure, stocks will dead cat bounce back to 9,800 or 10,500 one last time to bail out any remaining bankers, and then it will head towards 4000-6000 in steady increments.
Anyone here know any 30 year perma-bulls? I sure don't. Well unless you count Greenspan who was a card carrying perm-bull for 20 years until he became FED chief, though he probably never lost his appetite for gold in his own hand. I doubt if even Howard Ruff or Harry Schultz remained bulls all during the 80's and 90's. But the perm-shorts can keep dreaming the fantasy if it makes them sleep better at night. The fact that gold last peaked in 1980 sure didn't hinder my buying starting in 2002.
As far as the last 7 years, the gold watchers have been right far more often than the mutual fund players. About 4X more right by the charts.
roadrunner
It will be interesting to watch.
When gold fell back from its lofty 1980 levels I said the run was over.
Then four years ago I said on TV -- and I said it just about every day on the noon news on KCAL -- that gold was entering a new bull market.
And then I sold gold at $944 a couple of months ago when I said that gold had a rally failure when it failed to hold above 1,000.
look at what Im saying now. gold failed to hold in the trading range of 800-950 and there are signs of a test of 730 and if that is broken the sell signal will come in the 600s.
just follow the charts.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
/////////////////////////////////////////////
Almost nobody wants to do that.
They would rather be "right" about the fundamental failures
of "fiat currency" than make/save money.
<< <i>Roadrunner... my accuracy rate on gold has been 100% since 1980, and you can check my record on the web or the air checks of my TV broadcasts.
When gold fell back from its lofty 1980 levels I said the run was over.
Then four years ago I said on TV -- and I said it just about every day on the noon news on KCAL -- that gold was entering a new bull market.
And then I sold gold at $944 a couple of months ago when I said that gold had a rally failure when it failed to hold above 1,000.
look at what Im saying now. gold failed to hold in the trading range of 800-950 and there are signs of a test of 730 and if that is broken the sell signal will come in the 600s.
just follow the charts. >>
They didn't have ETF's in 1980 to control the markets, just another way for paper to control physical.
Uhh, ok, if you say so. If you're 100% accuracy is based on 2 calls (2 for 2) per market cycle (ie late to get in, and early to get out) that's not much to get excited about considering that there have been hundreds of cycles in the past 35 years. That's what real traders do day in and day out for years. If it were that easy, you'd be on the street making $500K to millions per year like the rest of the most successful of traders.
Then four years ago I said on TV -- and I said it just about every day on the noon news on KCAL -- that gold was entering a new bull market.
Great, then you were only 1-2 years behind most everyone else, including me who got in 6 years ago. Once gold broke $350 it was quite clear a new bull was in the making. At that time there were only $100 TRILLION in derivatives out there, but still enough to kill the entire financial system. That sealed it for me.
And then I sold gold at $944 a couple of months ago when I said that gold had a rally failure when it failed to hold above 1,000.
Astounding, you called a late start to the bull and then an interim top to a 12-17 year typical commodities boom. Congratulations. That probably places you in the bottom 5% of all full time traders and chartists who take their job seriously every hour of the day. How will your charting be perceived if gold takes a runner from here to $1200 and you then call a return to the bull at $1050-$1150? Do people pay you for that type of advice? At what level are you having your listeners get back in? First at $944 you said on this forum that $750-$800 was a buy back point. But I'm sure you have not recommended to anyone at $750 to get back in. That would seem to me you made an incorrect call back at $944. The recent move from $750 to $930 would have been nice to get a chunk of, huh? A lot of the top traders got a good piece of that one. The John Nadlers of the world are still waiting to buy back in at $600 from way back in August of 2007.
look at what I'm saying now. gold failed to hold in the trading range of 800-950 and there are signs of a test of 730 and if that is broken the sell signal will come in the 600s
What you're saying is to be OUT of gold during a time when banks are not solvent, corporations are still cooking their books wrt derivatives, and the FED is adding $100BILL per day to the money supply (ie about 10X the rate of anytime in the past). As long as TPTB can "paint" the metal charts without fear of accountability (similar to the July takedown) and the sheeple continue to believe paper=metal, then by all means follow the charts as TA might continue to hold up. But the charts won't mean anything when paper metal no longer equals physical metal. We'll see this first in silver, then later in gold. Yes, the charts can be painted all the way down to $600 from here and at such a level I have no doubts we'll see a $100-150 premium per ounce over the paper gold price. But you'll be able to buy all the GLD you want at the quoted price.
In the current environment this would have to be the worst time to be totally out of the precious metal's markets at anytime in the past 75 years. Just my 2 cents. It's about safety now, not trading. Besides no ETF's in 1980, they didn't have $1.1 QUAD in derivatives to worry about nor 100% of the major banks and mortgage companies insolvent.
And for what it's worth, there isn't a person alive with a 100% track record calling gold price movements on any reasonable frequency. Yeah, and I have a 100% lifetime upgrade record with PCGS regrades (3 for 3). It doesn't mean anything.
"Just follow the charts. " ........that is until they mean nothing and can no longer be painted by TPTB....ie all the physical gold and silver is gone.
roadrunner
<< <i>Gold 768 right now. I am in the camp that gold will return to the 600 range in the next six months to a year. All the other PMs are back to 05 levels more or less. The only thing holding gold up is the desire to not be invested elsewhere. That will slowly pass once things get back on track in the next year or so.
It will be interesting to watch. >>
Good point, Gold has been very strong on a relative basis vs other PMs and comodities. Of course it has still gone down but only 22% or so, not the 50 plus percent platinum and silver have dropped. Gold should begin to have more downward pressure, for the time being, than the other PMs as it's price has been elevated by panic buying from the retail masses, primarily in other countries whose currencies have dropped sharply(if I lived in Thailand I would be buying gold as well)
But after being facinated by the posts and idealogy of the PM bugs, (the Sinclair, PPt, Fiat and Fed as the antichrist crowd), I have come to realize, to many PM bugs, it's not so much about investing, and having a strategy to make money per se, it's about an ideaology and investing in such a way to align ones self with that idealogy. Everyone has to do what they feel is best for themselves and their family, I just think it's a mistake to plow most of ones assets into any one asset class, especially if the reason for this is "safety" and to protect against finacial disaster. PMs can have great value, but they are NOT safe, but many purport them to be, why?
I think many of us that are not true PM bugs, are thought of as PM haters, or sheeple;~) I assume everyone that posts here has bought precious metals and holds some now as I do, I have ONLY taken long positions, in metals and was fortunate to make money...yes it was in ETFs because of low tranaction costs and liquidity. I am still holding some bullion, mostly in the form of platinum eagles, which I am now underwater on(whoops!), but I don't know how you can consistently make money buying at premiums and hoping to get that premium back on the sell side, plus, have the metal price go up...investing liquidly at NAV is hard enough, for mere mortals.
and RR, I do understand the logic in your point and your reasoning seems valid:
"In the current environment this would have to be the worst time to be totally out of the precious metal's markets at anytime in the past 75 years. Just my 2 cents. It's about safety now, not trading. Besides no ETF's in 1980, they didn't have $1.1 QUAD in derivatives to worry about nor 100% of the major banks and mortgage companies insolvent."
but, the fact that metals have dropped sharply in price, when the credit crisis has clearly picked up steam, is exactly why NO ONE should ever claim PMs are safe.....just the opposite imho...the philosophy of investing in a financial crisis, should be diversify or die, NOT, pull out of banks and put most of your money in gold, which is from my understanding is what Sinclair has been stating......am I wrong here?
Many readers still do not get it. Gold is insurance against the consequences of the following.
This publication is not a tip sheet for the margin traders who each time gold goes into reaction love to send me emails, leave phone message, even today, screaming that gold is going lower.
My answer to these abusive callers is so what, Gold is going to trade at $1200 and $1650 regardless of the present reaction.
What is forgotten is no one scalp trades gold and that strategy offers protection from the consequences of the Federal Reserve as the lender of last resort to the world.
Creation of all this money is not a wash and will much sooner than later pull the rug out from under the pre-election dollar rally.
Remember CONSEQUENCES CANNOT BE AVOIDED.
Consider the fact that the Comex warehouse's total gold holdings are under $5 billion when you read the following headlines: ....
Go to his website below if you want to read more. The point is made.
It's impossible to get the economy back "on track" in a year or so with the overhang of derivatives barring a federal declaration that declares all OTC and unsubstantiated derivatives null and void. And I'm not even sure how that could be done w/o commencing a financial armageddon. While we have significant panic buying of gold, it has been generally keeping up with the hedgies unloading and with all the powers of the FED/PPT applied to push gold down. What's going to happen when the hedgies are done dehedging and the PPT stops successfully pushing gold down?
roadrunner
<< <i>RR Yes when COMEX can deliever a whole 17% of silver and only 10% of gold the shell game will end badly for them in the near future. They just have to hope no one takes physical holdings and continue to play the paper game. >>
However, industry has to have physical, and they will.
There is no denying that we have used more annualy than has been produced for the last 15 years.
I've said before that the COMEX is not on financially stable ground.
When financial markets and currencies are unstable, precious metals do well. That is simply historical fact.
How much more unstable do we want to get?
There is still an awful lot of unwinding to do and it's only going to create more unstable currencies.
Watch the dollar lose 30-40 points within 18 months or less.
Watch gold go over $1500 and silver to $35 or more.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
There are many ways to buy from the public or even as a wholesaler to be very close to NAV. Still, if I'm looking at getting to $1500 gold eventually, an extra $10, $20, or $30/oz. today is not important imo. Buying at the right time is what's important. I still think fondly of all those MS61-63 $20 Libs I "overpaid" $20 each for several years back at $400-$475.
but, the fact that metals have dropped sharply in price, when the credit crisis has clearly picked up steam, is exactly why NO ONE should ever claim PMs are safe.....just the opposite imho...the philosophy of investing in a financial crisis, should be diversify or die, NOT, pull out of banks and put most of your money in gold, which is from my understanding is what Sinclair has been stating......am I wrong here?
Ok, but what hasn't dropped sharply in price (20% or more as of late)? How many here emptied all their stock and bond funds and deposited that into pure cash? Not many I suppose. Next question is how do you properly diversify at the present when stocks, bonds, and banks in general are all rigged? Paulson and the SEC are making up new rules (and often illegally) as they go along. How do you play for safety when the FED/Treasury can pull out the rug no matter what you went into? I'd like to hear a good story on diversification as about the only success stories I hear around here are about shorting this and shorting that. Any success stories on going long in standard mutual funds?
Sinclair has been stating since 2007 to get out of all basic USDollar-based equities (USDX, US stocks, US bonds, 401K's, etc). He has stated to get as close to your assets as you can (ie reduce intermedaries...people that can go bankrupt with your money in their hands). If you do hold stocks then ensure you hold the certificates or an alternative is to ensure your broker has your shares in his hands and they are specifically identified as yours in writing at the brokerage. He doesn't have a problem with keeping cash outside the US in the Cando and other fairly stable currencies. The guy has been successfully trading for almost 50 years, he knows of what he speaks....better than about anyone on the planet. This is a winner take all game between the bankers and the sheeple. The bankers will employ whatever tactics they can to dismiss gold as a viable option while forcing you to keep your money tied up in their system. The last thing they want is not having our money available for continuous siphoning as they have done for decades now. Just think, $4 BILL on the comex is covering the potential loss of dozens of TRILLIONs in derivatives. That's about 10,000-1 leverage....in gold's favor.
roadrunner
For those of you who like constant action, may I suggest the craps tables at Caesars Palace. You will have action every fifteen seconds, on average. With a house edge of about 4%, which might be what you are used to with your broker and trading commissions.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
Roadrunner is one of the most informed voices around here.
You both have your positions but you're coming at this from different angles.
As far as constant action, try loading up on several tons of silver bullion and watch the spot price over the last 7-8 years.
Now that will have you pulling your hair out!
I've always said that silver is a cruel mistress, but treat her right and in the end she will treat you better.
I honestly don't think this bull is anywhere near finished, we just got sidetracked by crooks and politicians(not to be redundant).
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
1. 100% PM's track records
2. axiom: gold is a poor investment of 30-50 years
3. axiom: gold bulls that still have their gold from Jan. 1980. (lol)
Roadrunner.... As I've said before.... I try to buy high and sell higher. I dont try to call every twist and turn in the market. If you try to do that you will be whipsawed. I'd rather make a FEW investment calls and make sure they are the right calls. That is how Ive invested my whole life. I limit my trades to winning trades.
For those of you who like constant action, may I suggest the craps tables at Caesars Palace. You will have action every fifteen seconds, on average. With a house edge of about 4%, which might be what you are used to with your broker and trading commissions.
If you want to be high and sell higher, you will get your chance at $1050-$1100...though you might only make $100-$200 on that move when it comes time to move away. It could take another year or two to get to $1500 from there. And once $1200 or $1500 we could see another huge retracement from there.
I'm not a frequent trader and never have been. I typically hold a position for 3-6 months or longer...some for years now. I've never sold silver yet, not a single solitary ounce. That's for down the road. I abhor the whipsawing as well. I don't have the day or weekly trader mentality and don't make any bones about it. And I don't suggest that holding positions for months or years makes me a "trader" by any means.
As far as those 4% broker commissions I've bought ALL my bullion at 0-1% market wholesale levels through other wholesalers. My generic slabbed gold is typically bought at 0-2% over wholesale. Considering that those percentages are typically made up (or lost) in the trading day following your acquistion, they are in fact meaningless. It's when you buy it that makes more difference. When I sell, it's at straight 0% to wholesale. As far as craps tables, I leave that to others. I've only played at a casino once in my life (lost $100) even though I work only 15 minutes from 2 of the world's largest and casinos. I leave the sucker plays to J6P. But you know, there are ways to win if you make it your work. Several of the biggest gold buyers and sellers at my local shops play the slots for a living. That means playing 20-100 machines for hours at a time during slower periods. Those guys do pull down a nice income.
Any other views on how this pennant formation will tend to play out?
roadrunner
I resemble that remark.
I can still carry a 1000 ouncer up and down the stairs all day long.
What I'd like is a set of barbells made from .999
Seriously, it's nearly all in several deposit boxes. That's a tax write-off for me anyway.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Edited: Let me rephrase that... My gold and silver won't appreciate 5-10% so much as the USD will devalue at that rate and gold/silver will retain their current value.
Today was disappointing as gold was poised for the breakout but it did not occur due to the increasing strength of the dollar. tonight and over the next day or so we will see some weakness and gold may retreat to the high $850's. This will be a good opportunity to go long. Why? Two reasons. The upward trend in the USD index is exhausted and is likely to stall and or reverse a bit while it consolidates. The other reason is silver's nice 4% gain. By itself, it is not a reliable indicator, but it is a good sign.
The dollar experienced massive "strength" today which can possibly be attributed to the settlement of $300-$500MIL in Lehman CDS. Why that should be "good" news is lost on me but no doubt it was spun as dollar positive just as the news of an impending earth killer asteroid would be spun as dollar positive these days. After all, there are more dollars out there than anything else so there stands a better chance that more paper dollars would escape the holocost than yen, yuan, marks, francs, etc.
I count us in the 5th and final wave on the dollar "recovery" so exhaustion is nearing. An 18% upmove so far. J6P will be left holding the majority of these as the banks and investment funds shift into Swiss Francs, Candos, etc.
roadrunner
I already have "averaged into" quite a stash of platinum in addition to the other pms, and I bought my usual allocation of Plats from the Mint when the price was $2,400. I didn't sweat it until the price dropped by half, but even then I was chuckling to myself that the numismatic values on the 2008's would be amazing. Then, the Mint put them back on sale again on Friday.
I was holding another wad of cash, waiting for the moment - just in case the Mint did something like that. Either way, the mintages are probably going to be pretty good. And the usual justification for platinum holds true at these price levels - good potential price appreciation as inflation picks up, and the economy starts to recover. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
But I had an "Almost Cut My Hair" moment. I placed my order ASAP, and I got my confirmation. Then I started having a mild bout of buyer's remorse. But when I reviewed my reasoning in waiting for them to come back on sale at half price, I realized that I was back where I was when I first recognized the financial mess for what it is. I really can't think of a better investment/savings alternative that isn't subject to the uncertainty that I'm seeing every day in the other markets. Best of all, I know where my money is and I don't have to jump through hoops if I need it.
Problem solved.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I like to think of silver and gold as a store of wealth!!!! It's not a car you buy and it wears out for a total loss of capital. >>
I suppose it's all a matter of how much you are willing to pay for that car upfront. Some/many do go up in value.
The last car I sold brought me more than the sticker price I paid for it.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
However, I just looked at the charts for one year and five year gold and frankly I dont see any pennant formations.
What I see are "tops" and a downward slope of lower and lower highs. These are all negative chart patterns.
However, I am open to the idea of a pennant formation that I am missing. Would someone please point it out to me?
Many thanks.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
While TPTB seem to like/support the current multi-week trend of seeing gold go up in Asia until around midnight, then down again into the London & NY opens, this seems bizarre. It's apparent the Asians are buying the gold and love this action. But it's also apparent that with gold bullion now bringing a $50-$100 premium per ounce, the more the paper futures are lowered, the difference goes right to the physical trading price. Gold investors are not letting go of their physical gold. Next stop is raiding the Crimex inventory. And then it's default time.
But before we get too wrapped up in chart TA, let's not lose sight of the fact that the market moves of the last 7 months might have mechanisms tossed in that have nothing to do with TA. And if the amount of physical gold remaining to back that "TA" slinks away, what good are the charts or published futures prices? That truly will be the same as owning mining shares to a well-advertised, empty hole in the ground.
roadrunner
When gold fell back from its lofty 1980 levels I said the run was over.
Hey, my accuracy rate on gold has been 100% since 1978, especially if I don't count the times that I've been wrong. I got into silver in '78, and into gold margin contracts in '79.
I got out in the high 600's before the crash. I got back in after the crash and quickly lost $1,000. That kept me out for about the next 18 years. I've been accumulating pms now since '98, and I still see many, many more reasons to accumulate than I see reasons not to accumulate.
However, I just looked at the charts for one year and five year gold and frankly I dont see any pennant formations.
What I see are "tops" and a downward slope of lower and lower highs. These are all negative chart patterns.
I don't need to visualize a pennant in order to get the drift of the regression line on a gold chart. But charts only describe what's happened, not cause & effect. If you don't pay attention to monetary policy, the charts are just zigzag lines on paper.
JMO
I knew it would happen.
First of all, in order for a pennant formation to be bullish, it must show a breakout to the upside.
gold prices have dropped, and the breakout, if any, has been to the downside.
secondly, seven months is too long of a time period to define a pennant formation.
pennant formations are usually formed in a matter of days or weeks, not in seven months.
nope... I read the charts as inidicating a continued fall in prices. not as a breakout to the upside.
and, the price action shows prices are dropping... they are not going up.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>This thread is only calling for a short term move of $20-$50. If I thought gold was going to fall $50 tomorrow, I would post as such. I make money trading futures contracts in both directions. >>
ProofCollection.... what's your call now?
First of all, in order for a pennant formation to be bullish, it must show a breakout to the upside.
This makes no sense. Once the pennant eventually breaks to the upside, the fact that the pennant existed is now irrelevant, and one is late in getting back in. What we were discussing is which way the formation was going to break...NOT that it had broken. Once it breaks, anyone can read that, even someone with 100% wrong calls. Again, you have to read all the posts, not just the ones you want to. Every major pennant formation of this 7 yr. gold bull has resolved to the upside. When one finally resolves the other way, then we have problems and a potential end to the bull. But, one cannot walk away from this market for months at a time based on a long term call, and then jump back in and assume they know all the short term trends and analysis that occured in the interim. It does matter. In fact the formation currently building from March can easily break to the upside in resolution following a tightening of the volatility swings.
gold prices have dropped, and the breakout, if any, has been to the downside.
There is no yet confirmed TA breakout up or down from the current formation. That was the point in discussing it. As it stands now it is a "bullish" trend, until broken down. $745 doesn't break it yet but $700-$725 certainly will.
secondly, seven months is too long of a time period to define a pennant formation. pennant formations are usually formed in a matter of days or weeks, not in seven months.
Incorrect. Look back at Cohodk's chart in the main gold thread again. There you will see several multi-month long pennant formations such as April-June 2008 and Nov-Dec 2007 as 2 of the most obvious. That's more than days and a "few weeks." In fact we could take that a step further and call the entire April 2006-Sept 2007 pattern as a drawn out pennant, which it was. Prices did indeed trend downwards. After the resolution of that pattern the pog exploded. The pattern from March 2008 to the present can be shown in the same way but we are waiting to see which way it resolves itself, or if just meanders further. I don't know about you but I've not really seen any daily pennant formations of note that mean anything. And coming from a "long term" trader such as yourself, why are you even looking at daily pennants? I thought metals were a longer term play for you and your listeners? There are huge differences in market reactions to resolving pennants based on the successive building of demand rather than PPT-lead knockdowns that start the process all over again. There may even be Irish Pennants on your clothes that you have never noticed. Pennants are everywhere....short ones and long ones. Btw, I'm Irish.
and, the price action shows prices are dropping... they are not going up.
In that respect you are correct. Paper gold prices have recently been dropping...while physical has been fairly steady. At some point or for some period, paper TA experts will be out of jobs.
roadrunner
Bluelobster, you nailed it. It's more emotion than logic. How safe is an "investment" that has declined from $802 to $744 in the less than 72 hours that this thread has been up?
In the current environment this would have to be the worst time to be totally out of the precious metal's markets at anytime in the past 75 years.
Roadrunner, gold has performed well during two periods in the last 30 years, and both of them were inflationary. If you think we have runaway inflation now, you're ignoring the commodities markets.
But go ahead and put your orders in to your local shops and on-line firms while waiting for a few months hoping your order is not canceled. I do realize commodity prices have fallen a lot. But I don't invest in other commodities, they aren't cash alternatives. I also realize that physical gold and silver have not fallen anywhere near as much as the paper prices say they have.
Hey, for once the sheeple (ie real buyers) are setting the prices. How refreshing! Just like what's supposed to happen in truly free markets. But I'm a realist also and know that paper gold prices can fall a lot more from here. I'm just not expecting physical prices to go with them.
dac076, besides the 2 inflationary time frames you mentioned don't leave out the important Deflationary period of the 1930's. After initially getting pulled down some 20-30% by the initial crash of all equities in 1929-1931, the gold miners performed very well. Homestake Mining increased 8X from it's initial correction (11 to 8) to end at 66. That's not bad during a depression when the only tradeable gold substitute were gold stocks. Today we have bullion as an option as well, lucky us. And that's a good option since the eventual nationalizing of the gold miners is far from a pipe dream.
Gold has performed well in both strong inflationary and depressionary environments. But like the start of the GD, gold stocks did take some hits like everything else, then came back strong as people went looking for solid companies (with real assets) that wouldn't go bankrupt.
roadrunner
Not to horn in on roadrunner, but dac - most people haven't been riding a gold hoard for 30 years. But most gold followers have done just that - followed the price of gold and the causation thereof.
We have runaway money and credit creation. You decide whether or not that means inflation is coming. And just as significantly, we have growing distrust of financial markets and governmental agencies due to the corruption that is hard to ignore.
Ignore what's happening at your own risk. With precious metals, you have some control - and that's hardly an ideological issue. Do I trust the bozos in Congress who bend over for Fannie May and the slimeballs in the Treasury who hand out our retirement money to corrupt investment banking house managements, or do I trust something that I can keep aside when the whole ****house goes up in flames, as Jim Morrison said?
I knew it would happen.
I said gold had a rally failure when it failed to hold above 1,000.
I sold at 944.
gold is now more than 200 under the price I sold at.
there are no indications that gold is moving higher, and only signs that it will move lower.
I said that if gold moves below 730 it could drop to about 650.
a close below 650 could send gold plunging back by several hundred dollars more.
if you are long on gold, best of luck to you.
I do not have a position in gold.
I would not "throw good money after bad" at this point.
should gold turn around and move higher again in the future, there will be ample oppotunity to ride the new rally.
but I will wait for the "new rally." and the "new rally" is no where in sight.
best of luck to you. I am finished.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
The US dollar continues to have amazing strength (or perhaps every other currency is amazingly weak) which is holding gold down. I think the USD is way overbought. Regardless, the USD futures is showing a pennant on the daily 5m chart right at this moment. This pattern has become too difficult to trade. I am going to go short on gold for the short term with a target under $700, but I will be prepared to abandon this position if I see any weakness in the dollar appear.
From here it's a race between how many derivatives keep showing up for unwinding and many dollars are tossed out into the markets...or until the next major financial event instantly requiring trillions more. Here's one case where a temporary slowdown of the failed derivatives popping to the surface might actually help gold.
roadrunner