State of the hobby in 15-20 yrs?
leadoff4
Posts: 2,392 ✭
I collect mainly vintage 50s-60s cards and was wondering what you guys think the hobby will be like in 15-20 yrs? Do you think raw card collections will still be found 20 yrs. from now? Thoughts...
0
Comments
Raw vintage collections may be worth a premium in the future, providing there are still some left to be graded.
Modern raw collections will always be around.
JMHO,
PoppaJ
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
I also think/hope that what we call Vintage now will still be in high demand, I never saw any of the players in the set I collect play yet I prefer them over present players, Im sure their will always be some people who feel the same way I do.
The hobby will probably be smaller because nothing grows forever. Even though the hobby is probably smaller than it was in 1990, to me it seems bigger since the Internet has connected me with other collectors all over the world. I deal with people today that I couldn't even have talked to just 5-7 years ago.
<< <i>The big difference between stamps/coins and the card hobby is still tied to the popularity of sports in general. As long as sports are popular, the hobby will be around.
The hobby will probably be smaller because nothing grows forever. Even though the hobby is probably smaller than it was in 1990, to me it seems bigger since the Internet has connected me with other collectors all over the world. I deal with people today that I couldn't even have talked to just 5-7 years ago. >>
Great point about the internet- I have talked cards with more people I have never met than in person!
Do it for the enjoyment.
JMHO
in 15-20 years:
My prediction is that a 1933 Goudey Ruth #144 PSA 5 will be worth $10-12,000
My prediction is that a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 6 will be worth $30,000
My prediction is that a 1956 Mantle PSA 7 will be worth approx $5,000-8,000 in 15 years
My prediction is that a 1982 Ripken PSA 10 will be worth $75
My prediction is that a 1989 Griffey Jr Psa 10 will be worth $3 in 15 years
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2007 SPX Daisuke Matsuzaka PSA 10 will be worth $ 0
MULLINS5,1966CUDA,nam812,nightcrawler,OAKESY25,PowderedH2O,relaxed,RonBurgundy,samsgirl214,shagrotn77,swartz1,slantycouch,Statman,Wabittwax
If you've seen antique roadshow at all you know there are still some crazies out there willing to pay top dollar for a wheel off a wagon that Lewis & Clark used to discover the west.
Wishful thinking if you are counting on pre 60's (at least) vintage going down in price.
As long as they make modern sports cards, vintage cards will be in the minds of many.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
<< <i>The big difference between stamps/coins and the card hobby is still tied to the popularity of sports in general. As long as sports are popular, the hobby will be around >>
But at the same time there is a lot of competition for the sports dollar. Will someone born in this century want a set of baseball cards from their year of birth, or a few issues of Sports Illustrated from that year? There are millions of Tom Brady cards, there are under 200 000 tickets from his Super Bowl wins. Which will be more collectable in 20 years? Also, not only is card collecting becoming more and more niche, the sports themselves are becoming more and more niche. I would guess the number of people in high school who watch MMA far exceeds the numbers that watch baseball (five minute rounds of mostly violence, compared to five hour games of adjusting batting gloves. . . )
There will always be card collectors. To me, however, all the indicators point to there slowly becoming fewer and fewer over the years, when compared to a growing population that means that overall price increases will have little hope of exceeding inflation with very rare exceptions (Pat Tillman autographs anyone?). Of course if I could predict future values very well I would be rich right now. If you feel strongly that Goudey Ruth's and 50s Mantle's will increase significantly over the next decade, buy a bunch of them and enjoy the huge profits
<< <i>
If you've seen antique roadshow at all you know there are still some crazies out there willing to pay top dollar for a wheel off a wagon that Lewis & Clark used to discover the west.
Wishful thinking if you are counting on pre 60's (at least) vintage going down in price. >>
pretty sure lewis & clark are a tad more historically important than a 1959 topps mickey mantle.
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
Steve
<< <i>As long as sports stay popular and records are made/broken card collecting will always be around. >>
.... and as long as there is a buck to be made somewhere!
PoppaJ
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
<< <i>You think cards will lose up to 40% of value and you're calling others pessimists? >>
You make absolutely no sense, I was sacrastically offering %50.
What does that have to do with %40? I don't recall saying cards will lose %40.
I think someone needs a drink
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
I go to a lot more gun shows than card shows. It is very common to see collectors in their 70s and 80s at shows. I bet the average age of board members here is under 40. Therefore, many of us will still be collecting in 15-20 years as well in 30-40 years.
When I'm dead, my children can worry about the state of the hobby if they want to sell my cards.
Collector of Pittsburgh Pirates cards for a slightly less stupid reason.
My Pirates Collection
rare PSA graded cards - the tough ones. The ones that are tough now or rarely pop up will be tougher then. Even todays kids grow up into serious collectors and investors as the history of the game becomes fascinating to them. It's already tough to pick up the highly desirable RC's of certain HOF players and prices will skyrocket. Rarely anything decent wanders into a show for dealers to buy and auctions will be overdone as most picky collectors will soon want to see big ticket items first before they buy, just like in the coins business, where those collectors are picky beyond being sensible. That's why coin shows seem to be buzzing. The card biz is still in the infancy.
Ya can't see a scratch, indentation, or bubble on a card in a catalog or scan but you wouldn't buy that card at a show or "sight seen."
Set building will probably always be around but those collectors now already are quity condition conscious. Quality will always be quality, junk always junk. RARETY is the key here, and condition.
<< <i>In 20 years I hope to have my run of Topps sets completed.
I go to a lot more gun shows than card shows. It is very common to see collectors in their 70s and 80s at shows. I bet the average age of board members here is under 40. Therefore, many of us will still be collecting in 15-20 years as well in 30-40 years.
When I'm dead, my children can worry about the state of the hobby if they want to sell my cards. >>
Personally I think the average age of board members here are 16 to 26, or should I say the mentality of most board members are 17 -25
then again I could be wrong, have to sign off now the school bus comes pretty early, hey I think I might make it to the 10th grade next year ifin I dont fail again. can't weight till im old enough to buy alcohl and cigerettes !!!!!!!
As stated earlier their are plenty of collectors who will crack out cards just for their raw sets.
Im currently looking to crack out a Mint Earl Campbell Rookie for my 79 set.
The majority of my Football collection which includes a run from 1970 - 1989 will always be raw.
I don't collect Labels, current value or for that matter future value. I collect because of the nostalgic love Ive
always had for card collecting since I was 8 years old. I collect these cards as a hobby and NOT an Investment.
While it is nice to think they may hold some monatery value, if they all became worthless tommorrow I would still
be collecting them. That might not be such a bad thing!!!! It would weed out all the "Speculative/Investment" Collectors.
It would get rid of all the Greed and corruption created by TPG, including the TPGer's themselves, leaving only the pure
hobbist left to enjoy their cards the way it was meant to be.
I suspect there will always be a high demand for true vintage stuff (Pre-war and 50's stuff) Simply because of not only the
sports aspect of it, but also because I think the historical context will always hold a more signifigaint premium and meaning
over any modern day issues.
In contrast the stuff of today is almost a given it will fade and be worthless. The manufactered rarities (Fools Gold) will almost
certainly dissapear as far as any monatery value is concerned. A perfect example is Albert Pujois. Godd Guy great Player,
But its retarded price is fueled exclusively by the "Speculative/Investment" collector. The hobby history of the last 20 years
has already proven that these type of modern day "manufactered Rarities" are doomed to the common box eventually.
Bottom Line: Collect for the love of your cards and NOT for any MONEY value and you will always be happy and proud
of your collection weather it's worth anything in the future.
I collect cards. Not labels on plastic holders or Priceguide quotes.
Here are a few of my All-Time favorite Cards and weather its worth $500 or $5, I will always own them because of the priceless history
and meaning they personally hold for me. RAW and GRADED
I too collect to attain my childhood dream of owning the cards/players I idolized in sports.
Seeing that wallpaper depicting 1956 topps Mantle and Ted Williams in a popcorn/candy store in the early 80's here in Oregon...that image stays with me to this day...
As for my children carrying on my passion for the sports card hobby...unlikely...the sheer numbers who participate will probably dwindle...but no one can deny the historical value of sportscards and thus sportscards will hold their value in a smaller domain of hobbyist.
I brought up a similar subject a few weeks back concerning modern cards and how future generations will adapt and change the hobby, if our vintage will still be as valued...
Some interesting responses. I'll bring that thread to the top for further discussion.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
john
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Sam
<< <i>In 15-20 years there will be some nice vintage collections around and highly sought after by those that get bit by the collection addiction. The collection addiction may start with something unrelated to sports, but there will always be the sports collectors that have the emotional ties to collecting. All cards after 1975-1980 will be totally worthless except for anything that is brand new, which will always be pumped up for the usual year or two then collapse back to worthlessness. >>
Even Topps Heritage sets? I don't think it's even close to that drastic.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Some wise collectors have sold off their valuable baseball cards and put their collectible money into more rare and historically important items. Stuff from the Revolutionary war, Civil War, famous patriots(not Tom Brady), or a Lewis and Clark wheel and are quite interesting, and truly hard to find.
The wise collector knows that a PSA 8 Mike Schmidt rookie will ALWAYS be available in mass, so why not sell it and use the proceeds to put into something that is far more rare and historically important. The Schimdt rookie can be bought back at ANY time they want, and this is the key! There are just so many of them, and when it can be found now anytime it is needed, how do you think the future value is going to be when the collecting force drops by 20%? Either sellers are going to have to lower their price, or they will be eating cardboard.
Goudey Ruth's are not hard to find at all either. There are five on Ebay on any given day. 1956 Mantle's in PSA 7 for 5k in the future??? From this day on, a 1956 Mantle in PSA 7 will not keep up with inflation. I don't even think in 15 years that the price will be much different than it is now. 50 years from now, I would expect it to be lower than now. There are simply too many of them, and card collectors will only shrink, not grow.
I deal with kids, and it is rare to find one that has a love of collecting sportscards. They spend their money on video games.
It will take some time for the prices to drop, as 20 years from now most on here will still be alive and be willing to buy a Ruth card if the price falls, but who is going to buy them 20 years after that? Are you going to be 80 years old and still buying cards? How many of the now 12 year old kids will even care when they are then 50? Some may develop it, but nowhere near as much as now...and the supply will never really go down.
The bottom line is that if you are buying baseball cards now, it had better be for the enjoyment, or for a short term flip and profit. Anything after that is wishful thinking.
<< <i>Hi - I just found this site, so this is my first post. I'm 43 and I started collecting in 1973. I know a lot of collectors that are in their 30's and 40's that have gone back to get the cards they had as kids, just like me. But there is a difference between the current generation and mine. When I was a kid and I wanted the 1975 Pete Rose, everyone knew I was talking about the Topps card. There were some minor issues (Kellogg's, Hostess, etc...), but the Topps card was THE card. And I collected sets from packs. I still remember letting out a scream of joy when I opened a pack in 1980 that had a Bobby Bonds, the last card I needed. But today's collectors don't have that. Ask a 13 year old about the 2008 Alex Rodriguez and who knows what he will say? There's probably several dozen different cards. In twenty years, will that gentleman at 33 years old have wonderful memories about finding that elusive ARod card in a pack to complete a set? Not likely. So will he be going after today's cards? Maybe. But my guess is that he is more likely to chase cards from the 50's-70's when things were simpler and made more sense. I hope that there is a decent supply of collectors for the future, but I just don't know. Just my opinion.
Sam >>
Hi Sam,
PoppaJ
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
<< <i>I still think it is foolish to assume modern cards will be worthless. This was said 10 years ago and it was said 20 years ago....yet it simply is not true. Now, I will agree the mass of cards will not keep up with whatever the basic interest rate or inflation will be, but that is kind of a different subject. >>
It's also worth noting that with the exception of high end (PSA 7.5 and above) specimens almost no post-war cards have kept up with inflation over the past 25 years. So everyone who insists that middle of the road vintage cards have any kind of future as investment vehicles are fooling themselves (unless utility functions shift, blah blah blah).
I'd also like to echo what Hoopster said. I've never really thought about putting together a mainstream post-war baseball set from, say, past 1960, since they usually aren't very hard to find. For example, I like the '72 set, but why would I actually want to own one? If I have $1500 in my pocket then I essentially 'own' a very nice '72 set, or can own one in a matter of days, so why go through the trouble of buying it an losing the liquidity? I can see how actually collecting a set--or player-- can make sense if you're putting together a master player set, or a very hard to find company set, since it could be that you couldn't find a similar example in any reasonable time frame even if you had enough money to cover the market value of the cards. But for stuff that's readily available-- and I would include almost all mainstream sets in this category-- the idea of actually going through the trouble of buying one (or, God forbid, putting one together) has never appealed to me.
Why? well IMO the Pujols cards were created as a scarce collectable. The older vintage cards were not.
Steve
Steve
A good example would be if we can compare our sportscard hobby with a similar hobby that has seen it's hayday long before cards.... stamps? coins? comic books?
A good example of a hobby that has gone stagnant is original 1977-1983 Star Wars figures still encased on original card/bubble package...number of these on ebay compared to 7 years ago has dwindled and prices slightly - moderately down i'd say, only premium for the top shelf items.
It's become a very burnt out boring collectors domain and thus only supported by the generation that grew up to appreciate Star Wars.
Hold their value somewhat yes...but they'll be faded memories like the old toys from the 50's...not heavily traded in the market, still valued for the knowledgable few.
To me these hobbies/collectibles will graduate into an antique type status, just see how antiques are bought and sold now days, possibly the future of our baseball cards?
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
What you say about already 'owning' a 1972 set when you have $1,500 in your pocket, is spot on.
In my mind, I still own a 1933 Ruth, because it would only be a matter of days for me to get one in my hand(by purchasing it). It won't be any harder, or any more expensive to have this mindset for the next 50 years. The cards will always be there, and the competition to get them is going to dwindle some(and possibly dwindle to a great degree).
In my example of a PSA 8 Schmidt, I think the same way, but instead of having the card in hand, I have the money in hand. It is extremely easy to get one, so I don't worry about it if I don't have it in my desk drawer at this moment.
Virtually everything you buy outside of stocks, funds, securities, etc., loses value, often all of it's value (anybody buy milk or eggs secondhand on ebay?) The question is, how much utility to you gain from it? For the vast majority of people, even sports fans, when it comes to cards, the answer is very little. To most people, looking through a 1972 set in a binder is worth as much as looking through People in the supermarket checkout line.
Like a lot of markets, there is this strange situation where prices stay high simply because they are high. People are willing to overpay because they are certain they can always recoup money. Supply for pre-1980 probably won't be changing much, the biggest question is demand. All indicators are that demand will slowly dwindle over the next few decades, it is far easier to walk away from the hobby, than it is to find new people to bring in
Does anyone even know what Pujols "rookie" is? I bet if you combined all his "signed rookies" it is far more than mint 9 or 10 Johnny U rookies
<< <i>"And I think there are less signed Pujols rookie cards than NM or better '57 Unitas RC's"
Does anyone even know what Pujols "rookie" is? I bet if you combined all his "signed rookies" it is far more than mint 9 or 10 Johnny U rookies >>
Trust me, I would prefer the Unitas. But you are changing the argument I am making- of course there are more signed Pujols Rc's than Psa 9 or 10 Unitas RC's. But I do not believe there are more signed Pujols RC's than NM (7) or better Unitas Rc's, and look what value they hold- and Pujols is on track to be a legend as well.
And knowing which card the 'rookie' is, same deal as someone like Tarkenton- he has the Post, the Topps, topps bucks, 62 kahns, but everyone knows what the Tarkenton Rc is... 62 topps. Just like everyone knows what the Pujols rc is- bowman chrome.
John
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
T222's PSA 1 or better
if the card is in mint condition, the signature is well done and you like the picture, why isn't that any less desirable than a $2 500 version?
<< <i>you can always buy any 2001 Pujols card and have him sign it
if the card is in mint condition, the signature is well done and you like the picture, why isn't that any less desirable than a $2 500 version? >>
Isn't that like assuming all 2001 Pujols cards should have the same value or all certified autos of say, Joe Montana should have the same value?
I don't think many would agree with that assumption.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
and desirablity is different than value
<< <i>and desirablity is different than value >>
Not when it comes to sport cards, especially on this subject, the same player-same year. Cal Ripken's most desired RC is worth more then the others, Pujols most desired rc is worth more then the others, Tony Romo's most desired rc is worth more then the others.
I do not know what you collect, but I imagine if you looked over your collection and compared like items, the more desired is more valued.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
<< <i>
<< <i>and desirablity is different than value >>
Not when it comes to sport cards >>
I always make an effort not to desire things outside of my budget, sports cards included. If I were to buy a Ripken rookie, I would have no desire for a Topps Traded PSA 10 and be as equally content with a regular issue in a 9 holder (actually I like the photography on the 83 issues more, so that would likely be my choice. . . ). I guess when Americans now spend more than they earn, I shouldn't be too suprised that isn't the norm
<< <i>I think cards should be viewed as stable commodities not as high growth potential. >>
I like how you think...just like money in the bank to me.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
Great cards. I think you could have SGC review the Bradshaw rookie again. It really looks like a 92.
-Scott
1977 Topps Star Wars - "Space Swashbucklers"