Question about current silver shortage..........
Manorcourtman
Posts: 8,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
The shortage of silver is real here in the Midwest as I am having a hard time locating smaller bars, rounds as are the dealers I have talked with. Does anyone remember the PM market being so short of supply? Evidence of this shortage can be seen by prices being realized on eBay in my opinion. Yes you can find 1000 oz bars at but try finding smaller amounts at reasonable prices. Maybe I'm wrong here but I don't see this shortage easing up anytime soon based on what I'm seeing and hearing.......your thoughts are welcomed......
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Now, if these bars also had a cool name.
Such as "Meltdown" (*). Or "Financial Meltdown Silver Bar Co" (*). I would be in for one of each size at the very least.
(*) "Meltdown" and "Financial Meltdown Silver Bar Co." are copyrighted by Adam Lane, 2008.
Today, B&M had 10 rolls of ASE 2008s. 400 per roll. He sold 4 rolls already, no thanks but I will pass at that price.
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There is simply a difference in price between paper silver and metal silver.
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Industry is going to begin bidding the prices up, they have no choice other than to close their doors.
Medical uses will only continue to rise as well.
Many have talked about how we were using far more than the world's production for many years now.
The chickens are coming home to roost and it will be reflected in the price sooner than later.
$25 silver is closer than many think and that's just the beginning.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>There is no silver shortage. You can buy all you want.
There is simply a difference in price between paper silver and metal silver. >>
Paper is not metal, you can not use it in industry or medicine.
I remember what happened to the paper holder back in 1980.
No, there isn't a shotage of paper, one day you can use your paper silver as toilet paper.
Just try to exchange your paper for real physical silver.
The world is full of suckers and SLV has hooked a bunch of them.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Because silver is way down from the $22 high last March everybody is buying.
The problem is whoever is driving the futures price down so much.
TD
There is tons of silver out there but no one is willing to sell it at a loss.
The lease rate on silver has gone up up up in the past few weeks which should help loosen the log jam
Here's a decent explaination from KITCO site:
High lease rates will encourage stockpilers of the metal to sell into the spot market even when they wish to maintain their inventory levels. Being guaranteed to buy the same metals back for a lower cost at a future date offers them every possible financial advantage. For this reason exceptionally high lease rates cause the demand for immediate delivery to be satisfied, and therefore never last too long
If the spike in lease prices holds true to this explaination that would lead me to belive silver prices could still fall from here
Ebay silver
200,000 ounces available here. And has been for weeks unless they dont update.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Because silver is way down from the $22 high last March nobody is selling.
Because silver is way down from the $22 high last March everybody is buying.
The problem is whoever is driving the futures price down so much.
TD >>
That was certainly the first step in this set of falling dominos, the next step is when the prices rise to wholesale stock levels and that is quickly snapped up.
Then, maybe, some people will finally begin to realize the shortage that really exists.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Is there a solid reason why several bullion dealers have no 1, 5, 10, or 100 ounce bars other than demand vastly outstripping supply? (shortage)
Yes, I'm aware there are 1,000oz bars available but that is not what is in demand for price and inconvenience reasons.
Anyone thinking there isn't a supply problem with silver right now should sell their silver on ebay, they will be pleasantly surprised with the results.
It's possible that the dealers who are out of small bars sold their available supply, and are not willing to pay current market prices for small silver bars to restock their inventory.
This does not constitute a shortage. There is an available supply of small silver bars that are being bought and sold at current market prices for small silver bars. These current market prices happen, at the moment, to be higher than the prices for certain large silver bars or certain types of silver contracts.
Anyone thinking there isn't a supply problem with silver right now should sell their silver on ebay, they will be pleasantly surprised with the results.
This is true if they are only expecting to get "spot" for their silver. Those who are aware of the current market will probably not be surprised at all.
I don't see a huge difference between the price you can receive on eBay for selling small silver bars, and the price you must pay on eBay to obtain small silver bars. To me, this indicates that supply and demand for small silver bars are in balance.
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<< <i>I don't see a huge difference between the price you can receive on eBay for selling small silver bars, and the price you must pay on eBay to obtain small silver bars. To me, this indicates that supply and demand for small silver bars are in balance. >>
Please explain how those two prices could be different in that particular example.
shortage
A condition that exists when demand exceeds supply because of a lack of equilibrium in a market. If a price is artificially low, buyers want to buy more of a good than sellers are willing to sell. (Compare surplus.)
The above is unedited from Dictionary.com Looks like we have a shortage, folks. Note the last part where it says buyers want to buy more of a good than sellers are willing to sell it doesn't say there is a lack of actual product, it points to the lack of a motivated seller.
It can still be considered a shortage even though there is physical product in existance.
when production catches up, premiums will drop.
silver's actual price is not the issue here... that is set by the market. the issue is that you are seeing high premiums because of a shortage of fabricated metal.
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<< I don't see a huge difference between the price you can receive on eBay for selling small silver bars, and the price you must pay on eBay to obtain small silver bars. To me, this indicates that supply and demand for small silver bars are in balance. >>
Please explain how those two prices could be different in that particular example.
I probably should have used the word "amount" instead of "price". The amount you receive is after deducting for fees. The amount you pay includes shipping and possibly sales tax. Thus, the two amounts are different even if the two prices are the same.
If a price is artificially low, buyers want to buy more of a good than sellers are willing to sell.
The price of small silver bars is not artifically low. Small silver bars constitute a different product than large silver bars. The market price for small silver bars, at the moment, is higher in relation to the underlying metal than the price for large silver bars. The price for most silver jewelry is still higher in relation to the underlying metal, yet I don't see a "shortage" of silver jewelry. The difference in price can be explained by a difference in attributes, primarily size.
An "artifically low" price is often created by government price controls, but there are currently no government price controls on small silver bars. People are simply willing to pay a premium for the convenience of obtaining silver in a size and weight that better suits their needs.
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<< <i>There is indeed a shortage of purchasable silver in managable quantities anywhere near melt. Simple fact. Check the coin shops, coin shows, bullion dealers online, ebay, etc. and any silver found will be well over melt unless you get lucky.
Is there a solid reason why several bullion dealers have no 1, 5, 10, or 100 ounce bars other than demand vastly outstripping supply? (shortage)
Yes, I'm aware there are 1,000oz bars available but that is not what is in demand for price and inconvenience reasons.
Anyone thinking there isn't a supply problem with silver right now should sell their silver on ebay, they will be pleasantly surprised with the results. >>
Whats managable? $500 worth? What is the sense of buying $500 worth of silver? Is that going to save you? Are you really going to profit from it? What will you buy with that massive profit? If you believe silver is going up, then buy it. Put away a few thousand ounces, not 50.
I see silver selling for over $20 / oz on Ebay when shipping is included. I have 18 1oz Maple Leafs on the BST with free shipping for $20 each. No takers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The spread between spot and the street price is another matter. Many coins routinely sell for more than grey sheet ask. That doesn't mean there's a shortage of those coins.
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"Shortages" almost always come down to a lack of supply at a "reasonable" price, not a complete disappearance.
<< <i>Whats managable? $500 worth? What is the sense of buying $500 worth of silver? Is that going to save you? Are you really going to profit from it? What will you buy with that massive profit? If you believe silver is going up, then buy it. Put away a few thousand ounces, not 50.
I see silver selling for over $20 / oz on Ebay when shipping is included. I have 18 1oz Maple Leafs on the BST with free shipping for $20 each. No takers.
Whats managable? $500 worth?
Bars in denominations of less than 1,000.
What is the sense of buying $500 worth of silver?
To build a position, some of us have to do so over time, especially when we have two kids away from home at major universities.
Is that going to save you?
Not sure what the goal of that question was.
Are you really going to profit from it?
Yep.
What will you buy with that massive profit?
Maybe a car for the next kid in line for college.
Put away a few thousand ounces, not 50.
Well on my way.
I just dont see the rationale to pay 50%+ premiums.
Amazing to me how people balk at paying a 4% sales load to buy a mutual fund, but have no problem paying massive premiums to buy or suffer discounts when selling PM's.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thanks.
I just dont see the rationale to pay 50%+ premiums.
Amazing to me how people balk at paying a 4% sales load to buy a mutual fund, but have no problem paying massive premiums to buy or suffer discounts when selling PM's.
I don't fall into that group.
Back to the original topic...
Manorcourtman, I agree with your OP. I'm seeing the same in the South. Very little available except at the occasional pawn shop if you can find one that hasn't been cleaned out yet. I have one here that does get some in here and there and I've bought bars at dead melt just a few weeks ago when it dipped to $10.84, but there hasn't been any available since. It's the driest I've seen it.
yes the 30% cashback is back!!