whats your opinionn of Ted Butler
konsole
Posts: 795 ✭✭✭
I'm sure a majority of the people in here read his weekly commentaries. So I wanted to know what you guys thought of him. Is he right on most of the stuff he says, or do you think hes wrong on way too much? Does it look like he has conflicts of interest being on a precious metals retail site or does he just strongly believe in what he says? Whatever 2 cents you have about him would be great.
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Comments
people and i can learn from them. Just read their stuff and take away
what you can from them.
For example, Butler was a good read when it comes to silver lease rates. Very informative.
Although I agree with his general assessment of the silver market, I get just as much out of those who represent the opposing views at times. A strong opposing view, such as found here on occasion can give me the opportunity to consider where my own biases could be wrongly influencing my buying or selling decisions.
In the final analysis, your own personal situation will often be more important in decision-making than the direction of the market.
I knew it would happen.
Do some research on him. He used to trade OJ and was convicted of trying to rig the market and had his license taken away. He has been talking about silver for 20 years and has been wrong all that time. He might be right one day but I might be dead by then.
We know the metals market is rigged. Get over it.
<< <i>He's a quack
Do some research on him. He used to trade OJ and was convicted of trying to rig the market and had his license taken away. He has been talking about silver for 20 years and has been wrong all that time. He might be right one day but I might be dead by then.
We know the metals market is rigged. Get over it. >>
i read the OJ scandal (Juice)
he's smart.
i read his commentary when i can.
i woudn't call him a quack, an opportunist with a knack at best bet not a quack
<< <i>matulaption >>
I'm not going to ask how you managed to type that one :-)
There are a few others, but you can count them on your fingers.
At least he's consistent.
He seems to dig deeper than most.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
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I would really like to get some other opinions on the other side of the argument to read but I have yet to find any. I'd also like to get some more opinions in general... anybody have any other resources besides Ted Butler?
Edited to add: You have to admit that a lot of people follow his works too. He pointed out the consolidated positions of silver shorts and for his readers to send emails and letters to the CTFC. When the CTFC opened their investigation this time they said that they received a ton of letters and emails. Doesn't make him right, but maybe eventually he'll have the "Cramer" effect.
<< <i>I'd also like to get some more opinions in general... anybody have any other resources besides Ted Butler? >>
Dave Morgan is also pretty well studied in the silver market.
Butler was also telling people to exchange their gold for silver when the exchange ratio was 50:1. It's now over 70:1 or a 40% loss.
He is a quack who lost his licence for illegal trading in the Orange Juice market back in the late 80's early 90's. Why anyone listens to him is beyond me.
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Butler: Very funny.
Cook: How about explaining your orange juice travails?
Butler: First of all, it happened a long time ago, over 20 years ago. And it was a very trying and painful time in my life. Not only did it have a very adverse impact on my wife and children, it still impacts me to this day.
Cook: If you don't want to go there, I'll understand.
Butler: I won't get into the personal aspects of it, but there are some things that can benefit others. I was a commodity broker and had all my clients, including myself, long September orange juice, either outright or protected with spread positions in more deferred contract months. I had been in the position for a long time and although the price was substantially higher than originally purchased, it still didn't reflect true value in my opinion. I did all my own research and felt strongly that there was not enough orange juice to back up the shorts' contracts.
Cook: So what happened?
Butler: When first delivery day arrived, one large customer of mine stood for delivery on over 1000 contracts. I had arranged, months before, for him to borrow the 20 million dollars in case delivery became necessary or desirable.
Cook: And?
Butler: And all hell broke loose. The CFTC and the Exchange started calling and wanted to know what was going on. I explained to them that I had notified the Exchange, months before, of the likelihood of my customer taking delivery, and why were they asking now? To make a long story short, they pretended to deliver on time, but they really didn't. They later charged the customer with attempted manipulation and I and the firm with various related record-keeping charges.
Cook: Did the charges stick?
Butler: The big attempted manipulation charges were thrown out by their own administrative law judge, but the record-keeping charges stuck and it caused me to leave the brokerage business, even though I knew I did nothing wrong.
Google ted butler + orange juice
first one that pops up.
Also,
CFTC UPHOLDS DISMISSAL OF MANIPULATION CHARGE AGAINST DREXEL IN OJ CASE
601 words
20 November 1989
Securities Week
Pg. 7
English
CFTC Chairman Wendy Gramm and three CFTC commissioners recently declined to review an administrative law judge's decision in February to dismiss the main count in an alleged attempt to manipulate September 1984 frozen orange juice contracts (FCOJ) by Louis Abrams, a retail customer, and his broker, Drexel Burnham Lambert, and two of its employees.
This is one of the major enforcement cases brought by the CFTC in recent years. The agency has decided two manipulation cases in this decade. The Commission based its 1988 complaint on "essentially the same evidence" produced by the enforcement division in appealing Judge William Spruill's dismissal of the attempted manipulation charge, commissioner Fowler West noted in his dissent. Indeed, two of the commissioners who voted against a review earlier had voted to bring the complaint, sources said.
Only 11 lesser charges remain to be decided. These involve allegations of recordkeepping and reporting violations involving a former co-manager of a retail commodities branch, Richard Bermont, and a former account executive, Ted Butler. There are no outstanding charges against Abrams, who in February dismissed his attorneys, asserting he could no longer afford them. After the entire case has been decided, the enforcement division could appeal, but "It is very clear that the Commission has expressed its view that (Judge) Spruill decided the issues correctly," a knowledgeable source said.
Abrams had long positions in over 36 percent of the open interest in September 1984 FCOJ and over three times the published certified stock by August 31. Drexel, in a typical arrangement, agreed to finance delivery, a source said. The CFTC claims this agreement was "highly unusual and therefore is evidence of illegal activity," Judge Spruill wrote in his opinion, but he did not see why the respondents had a legal burden to convince the New York Cotton Exchange that "just as Abrams' intention reports stated," he might take delivery. In late July, Drexel told the NYCE president that Abrams might do so. Drexel claims the NYCE was told in June.
Abrams had no position in the cash market and rejected an Exchange for Physical. He allegedly tried to buy more long contracts near the end of trading, but Drexel would not oblige. Near expiration, Abrams also put in sell orders at above-market prices. Drexel, which got no directions from the NYCE or the CFTC, earlier had boosted customer margins to 100 percent and liquidated all positions but Abrams'.
Despite Abrams' long position, "there was an orderly liquidation of the market," but the settlement date was postponed two weeks due to insufficient amounts of cash supplies that met contract specifications, the judge said.
Spruill's dismissal of the main count "does not substantiate the (enforcement) division's claim that the judge gave mere 'lip service' to his duty...to interpret the facts in the light most favorable" to the division, the CFTC opinion said. Intervention is not justified in light of the division's "failure to state with reasonable particularity the testimony it would elict" at a hearing in support of its position, the opinion noted.
However, "Failing to review the judge's decision could cause "excessive and avoidable delays" in issuing a final order on attempted manipulation, West's dissent warned. There is a need "to provide further guidance in the areas of manipulation and attempted manipulation," he wrote. Because Spruill had reached his decision without a hearing, which would have provided an opportunity to assess the respondants' credibility, West did not believe that the CFTC had to defer to the judge's ruling.
<< <i>Silver is not more rare than gold in the earth's crust. Butler, the quack, is talking about above ground silver stored in Central Banks and such. Silver found in nature, is about 15X more abundant than gold. >>
That just simply isn't true. I suppose if people say it long enough then it becomes accepted.
It was true in the past.
The silver has been used up, as in gone.
Silver is primarily a surface metal and all the easy pickings are gone.
Butler may be many things, but he isn't a quack.
If silver was so common, then why isn't there more of it refined in above ground storage?
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
I don't take my advice from a convicted felon. He lost his license because of the CFTC, now he is out to get them.
<< <i>I did a simple google search: gold vs silver, gold rarer than silver, and most of the articles that show up state that silver is rarer than gold. Maybe someone can chime in. >>
I think you already have your answer.
The silver bashers will be along soon to try to educate you otherwise, consider the sources.
"Chiming in" is way too kind, usually they will question your intelligence and provide little else but bashing.
Been there, done that.
Your search provided you with the the answer you were looking for.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
PPM of rare metals in earth's crust
gold 0.004PPM
silver 0.07PPM
there is 17.5X MORE silver than gold in the earth's crust.
<< <i>Silver is consumed in industry. That is why above ground silver is more rare than above ground gold, but below ground silver is much more abundant than below ground gold.
I don't take my advice from a convicted felon. He lost his license because of the CFTC, now he is out to get them. >>
Your predjudices are clear. You are being illogical as well.
That doesn't take away from the fact that you are using 1990 thinking.
You mind is made up, you don't need to be bothered with facts.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Then explain to me why silver costs 70X less than gold.
BTW- platinum is 0.003PPM or about 25% more rare then gold. So Pt should only cost 25% more than gold (which is about where it is now). Palladium is 4X more abundant than gold and should cost 1/4 gold (which is about where it is now)
Is silver under valued in comparison to gold? At 1/70th the cost, yes. But if we are going into a deep recession, then industrial metals like silver will not be needed. If the economy was stable, then silver would be better than gold. With financial collapse upon us, I would rather own gold.
<< <i>how so genius? >>
Thank you for making my earlier point.
Your own handpicked article states that the metals in the crust of the planet are unavailable.
I guess we're stuck with what we have.
anyone who doesn't see that silver is way undervalued will just have to wait a bit longer to eat their words.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>I like when his buddy Izzy chimes in. Now there's a man who's bullish on silver. >>
I think Izzy is a kook. He must live in Butler's basement or something.
<< <i>I like when his buddy Izzy chimes in. Now there's a man who's bullish on silver. >>
He's one of the few who's nearly as bullish as I.
<< <i>simple google search gave me this
PPM of rare metals in earth's crust
gold 0.004PPM
silver 0.07PPM
there is 17.5X MORE silver than gold in the earth's crust. >>
Silver is far more likely to just lie on the surface. This has all been gathered up.
Silver tends to be more widely dispersed than gold so recovery costs can be high.
Most importantly silver is consumed while gold supplies just keep growing.
<< <i><< matulaption >> >>
that is a good one
<< <i>
<< <i><< matulaption >> >>
that is a good one >>
ya that does require a round of applause. I don't think I could type that even if I tried
<< <i>I agree with his main argument-- gigantic (manipulative) short position in silver futures. He's a perma-bull though, so he tends to get repetitive. >>
Perma-bull and repetitive; that sums up it up pretty well...
<< <i>Silver is far more likely to just lie on the surface. This has all been gathered up.
Silver tends to be more widely dispersed than gold so recovery costs can be high.
Most importantly silver is consumed while gold supplies just keep growing. >>
Indeed, silver is a surface metal, the easy pickings are all gone.
Actually, most of the silver on the planet came from two large deposits, both are now empty and the silver has, for the most part, been consumed.
It no longer exists.
Short of alchemy, silver is destined to become one of the most valuable metals on the planet and will only continue to rise.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Buying them is very exciting especially when buying them from Deadhorse!
I was flabbergasted to find two 1942/1 dimes in VF condition in the last batch he sent me!
Truthfully, another GREAT way to hold silver is to purchase BU or obw dime and quarter rolls from the 1950's and before! They ARE getting scarcer!
Gotcha Deadhorse!
Cook: And?
Butler: And all hell broke loose. The CFTC and the Exchange started calling and wanted to know what was going on. I explained to them that I had notified the Exchange, months before, of the likelihood of my customer taking delivery, and why were they asking now? To make a long story short, they pretended to deliver on time, but they really didn't. They later charged the customer with attempted manipulation and I and the firm with various related record-keeping charges.
Cook: Did the charges stick?
Butler: The big attempted manipulation charges were thrown out by their own administrative law judge, but the record-keeping charges stuck and it caused me to leave the brokerage business, even though I knew I did nothing wrong.
Google ted butler + orange juice
first one that pops up.
Yup, sounds the usual CTFC strong-arming tactics. I see nothing wrong that Butler or his client did....they played within market parameters. So what if they want delivery on 1000 contracts? So what if the Hunts wanted delivery on all their 1979-80 silver contracts? They both played by the rules, ticked off the powers to be in the process, and got the rules changed on them. Of course there's been no sign of the CTFC in truly investigating any claim of naked short selling of silver or gold. The CTFC only looks under the rocks that they are told to look under. Butler gets an up check in my book for this scenario that I had never heard about.
roadrunner
Ted Butler played in the movie 'Trading Places' with Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd?
One of the best movies I ever saw!
A must to see!
<< <i>Gotcha Deadhorse!
Yes you did indeed! Good one!
I was just as flabbergasted to read that.
I was thinking.......... no way, but I suppose it could have been possible.
I did buy a large batch of assorted melt some time back and it did have one 42/1 in it in AU condition.
I had it slabbed, came back as a 58 and put it on consignment. It paid for a nice chunk of the melt batch.
So......... you did have me scratching my head there as part of what I shipped to you came from that same batch.
I'm still putting away more, but they are becoming much harder to find, particularly the Walkers.
Waiting till I get a large enough batch to justify S/I.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff