An interesting conversation with the old guy at the coin show.

keets

At Sunday's coin show in Brookpark, Ohio we had this one old guy stop by the table who proved to be the Person of the Day for us. He was about 75-80 years old and confined to a wheelchair which was presumably being pushed by his son. The guy looked pretty rugged, kind of gave me the impression that he'd have been a formidable character in his younger days, and at several times during his stay at the table it seemed he might be coming out of the chair judging by how he shifted his weight around!!!

We talked coins while he glanced around the cases and he settled on three ANACS holdered Buffalo Nickels, an AU 3-Legger, an XF 1913-S Type 2 and an MS63 1916 was what I think the third coin was. After he settled up and was ready to move on he started to get excited about the state of the economy and the high price of gold. I don't recall what got him started, but we just listened and let him go off!!!! At one point he asked if we wanted to hear his prediction and he bet my pal dinner vs. a bottle of whiskey that he was gonna be right. He joked that he didn't drink anymore but loved to eat!!

Well, he went on to talk about some Gold mine that the Japanese have started to operate and he insisted that they're mining enough gold to affect worldwide supply and price. His prediction is that coinciding with the time when taxes are due, April 2009, the price of gold will have dropped to $500/ounce. Neither of us laughed cause he made an impassioned case and seemed to know what he was talking about, but all the same I dismissed the notion of things falling back that far, he left and went on and finished out the show.

This morning curiosity got the best of me and I did a few Google searches and there apparently is a supposed rich deposit in Japan that's been mined for several centuries. I didn't obsess with the whole thing and read page after page, I again just figured the old guy just got worked up about nothing and I've since chalked it up to coin show gossip and the tension of the current events. He also made mention of the fact that the US Mint is planning on striking a new gold coin, something I hadn't heard about, and he didn't give us any rundown on that since it was during the gold rant.

Anyway, I thought it was sort of interesting coming at a show and all from a guy who gave the impression of being a knowledgable collector with insight into how the coin market works, so I thought I'd share the story and ask if any other members had ever heard of what he spoke about, either the new US Gold coin or the Japanes mining large reserves.

Al H.

adamlaneus

Interesting story.

My gut feeling says that the new Gold coin is the Ultra High Relief Saint coming out this year.

My gut feeling about mines is that they are rarely saved for later and where an occasional rich discovery is made on a not so rich mine such as what happened in Bodie, I tend to believe that any mine that is centuries old is either currently working at an economic capacity or fully explored and tapped out.

It would be nice to get those UHR saints on the cheap, so I would not be crushed if I was wrong!!!

Once again, cool story; well written.

lasvegasteddy

great read keets...clueless on those subjects though

i hope you exchanged phone numbers and took him on his bet just to have dinner with him reguardless of who pays

interesting there adam that you bring "bodie" up as when i lived in carson city a friend of mine headed there every weekend and one weekend he came in with an 8oz nugget from crevicing

BECOKA

<< <i>Interesting story.

My gut feeling says that the new Gold coin is the Ultra High Relief Saint coming out this year.

It would be nice to get those UHR saints on the cheap, so I would not be crushed if I was wrong!!!
>>



I thought it was next year?

And yes, I'd be a strong buyer at $500 for the UHR.

Well at least 2 or 3 instead of 1.

DoubleEagle59

I don't know about the price prediction, but I would argue that even the discovery of a large gold mine would not disrupt the price of gold.

Rugged or not, wheelchair or not, old or not...... he's just another man with a man's opinion about gold.

ricko

I would discount it... Gold will remain strong.. and mining it, especially in an 'ancient' mine is not going to put a ripple in the market.. which has very strong inputs from the African mines, among others. Cheers, RickO

keets

i was curious as to where he got his information. he wouldn't let us keep him on that point and his son never spoke a word the whole time they were at the table.

cladking

There have been many thousands of gold mines in world history. It's improbable
that a single new mine could have a tremendous impact on the total amount of gold
available. It could have a large impact on either pschology or ready supply, though.

If it came at just the wrong time it could push gold prices down. But this presupposes
that there is such a time. If gold were hitting the market in unusually large amounts
there shouldn't be a shortage now.

If he proves to be right it may be more coincidence than foreknowledge.

mustanggt

Good story and sounds like it made for an interesting day at the show...

COALPORTER

<< <i>i was curious as to where he got his information. he wouldn't let us keep him on that point and his son never spoke a word the whole time they were at the table. >>



Probably the same place the ORACLE OF DELPHI got his information

fcloud

Don't count old guys out. Warren Buffet is an old guy.

COALPORTER

<< <i>Don't count old guys out. Warren Buffet is an old guy. >>



He's the Oracle of OMAHA.

dorkkarl

great read, the world could use more characters like the old coot in the wheelchair

ever spend time w/ a WWII vet? time well spent

K S

CB2597

DK.

pontiacinf

great story Al

I had an old guy who was a nursery man, he lived across the street from me. This guy was cutting grass on the new haven green back in 1920 with horse pulled mowers he was so old.

anyhow, I used to help him with yard work or shovel snow when needed, and he would always entertain me with storys of old, and one day he found out that I collected coins. he brought me in his house and showed me the many proof sets he collected over the years. many of these were from the 1880s and up. back then I had no clue as to what I was looking at, it all looked fake to me as I never saw coins minted before the 60's back then. when he died in the early 90's his daughter ended up with the coins and she cashed out what he had, no exact amount was told but it was it was a hefty 7 figure buy.

I always admired him because when I was a teen he gave me some poppy plants from the orient, which he stated at the time they were illeagal but he liked the flowers. he filled my moms garden with em and boy did I have fun with those pods back then

WTCG

Has anybody noticed how "expert analysts" always seem to jump on a prediction bandwagon? When gold increases in value "it'll hit $3000 an ounce in a few months" and once there is a decline that same analyst will claim that "gold is headin' down to $300 real soon".

My personal rule is to always take the "information" that I hear at a coin show with a grain of salt. Unfortunately coin people as a whole are known for being a little paranoid about the government and world events and will almost never admit their theories are wrong even when proven otherwise. Those old geezers who can't seem to stop talking seem to have the most elaborate stories to tell. Do your own facts checking before believing anything you hear.

Attend any 100 table coin show and chances are you'll hear 80 different conspiracy theories. Heck, I still know coin people who believe the U.S. will be under martial law by Halloween this year. I guess in 24 days from now we'll see if they're right or not.