Bear Markets in Coins-When will the big one begin?
mrearlygold
Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
How many here have been in this business,collected or invested in coins long enough to remember the collapse/correction/bear markets of 1981? 1991? Thought it would never end when it was happening eh? We haven't had a real doozie since then yet we have had unbelievable appreciation in some areas. Look at early 10's as a case in point.
My question is, how bad will the upcoming bear market be and how long do you think it will last? Which coins do you predict to be the biggest losers? The most stable?
Will it be no coin here gets out alive, or will some coins do ok and actually appreciate? Which ones?
When do you think it will start?
My question is, how bad will the upcoming bear market be and how long do you think it will last? Which coins do you predict to be the biggest losers? The most stable?
Will it be no coin here gets out alive, or will some coins do ok and actually appreciate? Which ones?
When do you think it will start?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
0
Comments
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I think it started. >>
Not even close.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
a severe downturn in the coin market happens
when it is totally unexpected. It will happen in an
instant at some show and buying and selling will
just stop.
Camelot
The cause, this time around, could be the unexpected failure of a major dealer or auction house whose line of credit suddenly dries up.
With so many dealers thinly capitalized, such a failure would reverberate through the business very quickly.
Think of what would happen if a major auction house couldn't pay off its consignors, many of whom are dealers, after a major sale.
<< <i>Think of what would happen if a major auction house couldn't pay off its consignors, many of whom are dealers, after a major sale. >>
That would be a drag.
When the "wise old bear" decides to sell off his collection and devote all his attention to jelly donuts and picnic baskets...
I tend to agree. There are clearly signs of weakness in some areas of the market. That said, the "bear market" won't affect all coins equally, and it may not be severe and/or prolonged. Much depends on external forces and future events.
For what it's worth, I think the smartest way for a collector to navigate a bear market is exactly the same strategy used in a bull market. Buy great coins that seem like solid value, and be prepared to hold them long term. (Of course, near the top of a bull market, fewer coins should seem like "solid value".)
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think it started. >>
Not even close. >>
Tom, I would have to say if it hasn't started it will after today's collapse on Wall Street. Crisis in confidence in the money system, the avg. Joe's 401-K in tatters, and October being the traditional bugaboo month for stocks (and we're not even a week into it!!) are all going to combine to bring down the coin market as well. I hesitate to use the term "slow down" because in past coin market corrections they were almost all rather sudden and abrupt. I hope it's not so, but I fear it is. Some of us make our extra spending cash in stocks, and when I see DNDN as my only up stock with many hitting 52 week lows, it's just a matter of time before this spills over into the coin market. JMHO of course..
john
I agree with you Bear!!
In 1981 or 1982 I was at a long beach show in california when it happened just like you described. Now one was buying. dealers were in a panic, many with worried looks. Dealers were dropping prices to move something.
I had dealers hawking at me as I walked by their tables that they would sell cheap. I'll never forget one dealer I walked up to, he had a case filled wth morgans. He said to me In a loud voice and in a very agitated way, waving his hands over his case.
"I want to get rid of all this SH*T!"
He was begging me to buy something.
It will happen again.
Krueger
The way the stock markets are going, the "rich" are going to start feeling a lot less wealthy, and that will probably send this long running bull coin market to the showers.
I was at one shop last week and a guy walks in and takes all the 90% he can buy; then he puts in a promise to buy all that the dealer can get for the next 2 months. The dealer, of course agrees, and the buyer leaves. This is a guaranteed sale for 2 months who can turn THAT down!?
90% silver BTW.
Numismatic coins are the pieces that will suffer melt downs under the current economic conditions.
I think bear market has already hit the low end coins while high end stuff seems to be faring somewhat better at this moment.
I wouldn't want to have a large collection of coins coming to auction in next 30-90 days.
I would strongly advise everybody that has any key or semi key Liberty Seated Quarters to put them up for sale right now at fire sale prices on the BST forum. Hurry time is short.
Ummmm............ I collect the Seated Quarters.
I'll be checking the BST forum right along folks.
FWIW, my opinion is that it's the folks that have paid crazy prices for high grade moderns and toned coins, that are going to be the ones getting the nasty wake up call when the bottom does drop out. When they can only get 10 ¢ on the dollar for their stuff..... when they can find a buyer,.... they'll probably leave coin collecting for good.
Ray
<< <i>Coin prices are gonna collaspe. Right away. It'll be real bad.
I would strongly advise everybody that has any key or semi key Liberty Seated Quarters to put them up for sale right now at fire sale prices on the BST forum. Hurry time is short.
Ummmm............ I collect the Seated Quarters.
I'll be checking the BST forum right along folks.
FWIW, my opinion is that it's the folks that have paid crazy prices for high grade moderns and toned coins, that are going to be the ones getting the nasty wake up call when the bottom does drop out. When they can only get 10 ¢ on the dollar for their stuff..... when they can find a buyer,.... they'll probably leave coin collecting for good.
Ray >>
I'll be waiting too, and not for the moderns
john
If gold continues to prosper I think we'll be ok for a while yet. I don't believe commodities are dead yet and that they will get a second revival within 3-12 months. For now, all assets worth anything are being tossed out in the trash to make margin calls and increase liquidity.
roadrunner
up has helped prop up certain areas.
the next area to be hit will be widgets. morgans for example. you
cannot swing a dead cat at an auction and not hit 100s of them in
common grades and dates.
next, after the stock market hits 9000 will be higher end coins. it
will not be a sell off but the coins currently for sale will not sell unless
they drop the prices. this will lower the value of current collections.
i predict bullion slabbed coins will tumble down to spot except for
the top pops which will always get a premium due to the registry
competition.
truly rare coins will remain expensive but not get as many bidders...
so there slide down will be very gradual.
the days of looking at last years auction prices to guage how much
a coin should be worth are basically over. that will simply set yourself
to over pay in most cases.
I have finished selling off all of the little stuff and
have basically stopped buying for the rest of the year.
There are really no bargains out there to be had and
prudence and caution are now called for. The serious
economic disruptions and expanding impact on all aspects
of the economy will ,in due course , will be felt on the coin market
with ferocious intensity. We are in for storm conditions for
the rest of the year and well into 2009 as well.
Camelot
i'd like to finish my set then acquire a roll of them one by one
<< <i>
<< <i>I think it started. >>
Not even close. >>
Bullion is one thing. That market may actually be growing.
But the coin market has been described as a thin market. In terms of number of real buyers/number of bidders laying out cash, I think it is even thinner.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I do not think one can say there is a single coin market. There are several sectors within the market that folks call a coin market. Within that whole market, sectors are perfectly capable in moving in different directions and that movement in different directions is ongoing and just seems to be gaining more attention.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
.....................................................
Thanks for the warning.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
several major categories.
Super rarities
Colonial Coinage
Classic copper Coinage
Classic Silver Coinage
Classic Commems
Classic Gold Coinage
Modern Copper, Silver, Clad and Gold Coinage
Modern Pop Tops and Condition Rarities
Modern Commems
So Called Dollars and medals
We can further break each of the above categories down into
Gem BU/ Gem PR and better
MS-63-64?PR 63-64
Circulated
It is true, that these various parts of coin collecting do have a life
of their own. However, in a major stoppage in trading, we generally find
pretty much everything comes to a sudden stop. I am not saying that we
are necessarily there yet. However ,when we do arrive there, it will be sudden
and rather harsh.
Camelot
As l always say, please let me know about any fire sales on pre-1808 US silver ;[)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Rob
"Those guys weren't Fathers they were...Mothers."
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>The one thing I have learned is that most times
a severe downturn in the coin market happens
when it is totally unexpected. It will happen in an
instant at some show and buying and selling will
just stop. >>
I forget where I read the story, and perhaps it's covered later in this thread, but I believe it was one of the major shows in '81 where the author described what had been a busy, noisy show floor that suddenly went quiet. The bear market was on.
seriously, let me know ok! thanks!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
roadrunner
of the market.
Collectibles are such a tiny percentage of the total $ amount
in investments in this country. As we all know, it just takes two deep pocketed individuals at an
auction to produce a record price.
Coins do well when average collectors are comfortable with their finances, allowing them to allocate
more funds to the "expendable" category.
Coins do well when other investment opportunities do poorly -- "new money" comes into the market
pursuing mostly the latest fad. Unfortunately, this type of surge typically fades fast. Think 1989.
Coins do well when gold and silver are rising. The public gets interested, dealers that are flush with
PM cash often put some of their reserves into coins (makes sense -- it is what they know best), and
for many coins, the majority of their value is tied up in their metal content.
Coins are a lot like stocks. If you acquire quality pieces slowly and steadily, and take pains to maintain
them properly, over the long term you will do well. If you trade in and out rapidly, you better be either
very lucky or very talented.
Two years ago, mrearlygold was talking about The Big One. Coincidence??
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