platinum & gold approaching parity
nycounsel
Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
right now gold is at $900+ an ounce, and platinum is under $1100.
this struck me as odd... I've come to expect platinum to trend at roughly 2x gold.
Looking back, though, I see that they weren't all that far apart in 1996-1997.
this struck me as odd... I've come to expect platinum to trend at roughly 2x gold.
Looking back, though, I see that they weren't all that far apart in 1996-1997.
Dan
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I knew it would happen.
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
<< <i>right now gold is at $900+ an ounce, and platinum is under $1100.
this struck me as odd... I've come to expect platinum to trend at roughly 2x gold.
Looking back, though, I see that they weren't all that far apart in 1996-1997. >>
Plat. now below $1000 & Gold $880 ....
Any guesses when parity will be reached?
The good news: The mint only made 198 singles and 453 4-coin sets for a total of 651 coins!
Wishful thinking: I think the mint is done for the year.
Ren
don't confuse made with sold.
I don't know that anyone here knows how many the Mint has made- they could have a full production run sitting in their vaults.
The continued availability of the 2007 reverse proof set shows that the Mint's present practice allows minting in one year and continuing sales after that.
We've wiped out all the recent gains and are now at a level not seen since 2005.
If we stay at this level, it's possible we'll see an increase in the number of collectors as some gold collectors consider switching.
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if platinum stays under $1000, we could very well see the number of collectors DOUBLE in the year to come.
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From 24 to 48.
(just kidding, a little gallows humor from a platinum collector).
The Reverse Proof Set is a special issue and really doesn't fall into any of the regular classifications for the Plat series. The Mint held onto inventories of 1999, 2000 and 2001 Silver Proof Sets and tried to sell them as a group later, only to be thwarted in the effort when many of the coins had developed spotting. The 2001-D Kennedy Halves are an example of a perpetual Mint offering. However, due to the high price of the 2007 RP Plat Set, I would think that its shelf life is limited.
Neither the Burnished Plats nor the Proofs for a given year are produced after the end of December. The Mint's standard practice is to sell the Burnished Uncs until the end of the year or until they sell out. It's approaching the point of them *not* making another run, regardless.
The Proofs are generally made available until March or April of the following year, unless a sellout occurs first. If the Proofs were selling (which they aren't), another run might be considered for the Christmas Season. Time is drawing short on another run of these, too.
In both the cases of the Burnished Plats and the Proof Plats, nobody really knows the sizes of the first production runs. Suffice it to say that the Mint's production planners would probably try to estimate demand for all 4 denominations in both Burnished and Proof, and that their estimates would be based on historical sales data. This indicates to me that smaller mintages are probable for a first production run of each denomination, based upon a longterm trend of shrinking sales volumes.
The probability of low mintages in both the Burnished Uncs and the Proofs should be more pronounced in 2008, because this year lacks the additional stimulus of either a new series (the Burnished Series) or the special issue (the RP). It's just normal production planning to make an estimate based on the past trends.
It should be noted that the 1 oz. Regular Issue Plats recently had a large bump in mintage, from 1,500 up to 8,600. That being the case, it's really hard to know what the Mint is trying to accomplish or what they might have up their sleeve.
Selling the bullion Plats while holding the collector Plats back is inconsistant, and it illustrates that pricing has no real bearing on their decisions. After all, they make more money on the collector issues than they do on the bullion issues, so why wouldn't they maximize their profits? Oh yeah, it's the government. That's my take on it.
I've said it before, but if you can figure out what the Mint is going to do with any certainty or reliability then you truly deserve a prize.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Platinum is an Industrial metal, Gold is strategic, look at Rhodium, down 60% from it's highs a few months ago... >>
gotta mention palladium, too
roadrunner
<< <i>The bad news: I bought a quarter ounce 2008W platinum unc at the equivalent price of $2,400 from the mint.
The good news: The mint only made 198 singles and 453 4-coin sets for a total of 651 coins!
Wishful thinking: I think the mint is done for the year.
>>
Shouldn't have posted that.
The boogeyman from the Mint has read that and now they will release 6,000 more of each denomination just to smash your fingers.