Hypothetical: In a bad economy, which coin(s) would you sell?
RYK
Posts: 35,800 ✭✭✭✭✭
While I maintain a cheery, optimistic demeanor, deep down inside, I always fear the worst--even in the best of times. Right now, we are clearly not at the best of economic times, which I think we can all agree. That said, my wife and I have good jobs, we are not over-extended financially, and I continue to be able to add to my collection, including two "important" coins that I ordered yesterday.
In a worst case scenario, let's say my wife and I both lost our jobs, and a tree fell on our underinsured house on the same day that my mother-in-law came to us and told us she was behind on her house payment AND my mother was convicted of a felony and needed $100,000 for bail money. In short, we needed to raise some funds.
Let us also assume that the coin market was dismal, but the only assets that I had left to sell were coins. In such dire circumstances, is it better to sell a very desirable rarity that would be hard to replace down the road, but at a relatively strong price (more than what you paid a couple years ago) or a group of pleasing coins of lesser value, more easily replaced, but at a substantial loss. Which would you do?
Assume that we (or you) expect to be working again soon and plan to get back to my/your beloved coin collection when I /you am/are back on strong financial footing.
In a worst case scenario, let's say my wife and I both lost our jobs, and a tree fell on our underinsured house on the same day that my mother-in-law came to us and told us she was behind on her house payment AND my mother was convicted of a felony and needed $100,000 for bail money. In short, we needed to raise some funds.
Let us also assume that the coin market was dismal, but the only assets that I had left to sell were coins. In such dire circumstances, is it better to sell a very desirable rarity that would be hard to replace down the road, but at a relatively strong price (more than what you paid a couple years ago) or a group of pleasing coins of lesser value, more easily replaced, but at a substantial loss. Which would you do?
Assume that we (or you) expect to be working again soon and plan to get back to my/your beloved coin collection when I /you am/are back on strong financial footing.
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use the money once you get back on your financial feet to buy another very desirable rarity.
Then I take them to the bank, and sell them there at face value.
The GOOD coins, the ones in the slabs.....aren't going ANYWHERE.
Unload everything else and don't look back.
<< <i>Keep the coins that are truly rare and are exceptional examples of their grade. Think "eye appeal."
Unload everything else and don't look back. >>
Well said.
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<< <i>Well, if you know you will be getting another job and will be continuing your coin collection then I'd take a loan for the short term, pay that off and then get back into the collecting habit. >>
That sounds like a terrible idea. In a financial crisis, the last thing one needs is another financial obligation.
Why not post that, one of you regular doom and gloom posters?
Thats a far greater horror than a mere economic downturn....of which we have had dozens and dozens and always manage to pull out of and end up a bit better off than before.
<< <i>If the astronomers really find a huge comet that is indeed going to hit the earth in 2012, and you really want to sell your coins, do you think the coin market would crash?
Why not post that, one of you regular doom and gloom posters?
Thats a far greater horror than a mere economic downturn....of which we have had dozens and dozens and always manage to pull out of and end up a bit better off than before. >>
Great idea. I might wait until 2011 to post that one.
I do not think it is unreasonable to discuss strategies for a forced sale of coins in a down coin market.
Years ago when we were first starting out we fell on an extended hard time, during which I first liquidated all my silver, then went into my proof and mint sets and finally sold anything that had value above face value. The only coins I kept were the ones that had sentimental value. It devistated my coin collection and I considered not rebuilding at the time.
The collection was not very considerable as it was what I could afford from growing up (paper route money that was not used for other stuff).
I had not let my wife know during this time that my collection kept gas in the car and helped keep the bills paid. When she found out later (mental slip when talking to old friend) she was upset because she did not know just how bad it was and I did not let her know.
I found at the time that the act of liquidating my collection bothered me for about a month then I became numb to the idea. Now however, I tend to hoard.
S
Buy in the next U bottom as you can, then sell all, at the next round of "COINS ARE THE GREATEST INVESTMENT" cycle.
Then start over on a new collection in the next u bottom as you can.
<< <i>
<< <i>If the astronomers really find a huge comet that is indeed going to hit the earth in 2012, and you really want to sell your coins, do you think the coin market would crash?
Why not post that, one of you regular doom and gloom posters?
Thats a far greater horror than a mere economic downturn....of which we have had dozens and dozens and always manage to pull out of and end up a bit better off than before. >>
Great idea. I might wait until 2011 to post that one.
I do not think it is unreasonable to discuss strategies for a forced sale of coins in a down coin market. >>
WHERE is this down coin market that I keep hearing so much about?
I havent seen any prices falling in the area I search for.
EDITED TO ADD: In fact the capped bust half dimes are showing a sea of green in the price guide.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>If the astronomers really find a huge comet that is indeed going to hit the earth in 2012, and you really want to sell your coins, do you think the coin market would crash?
Why not post that, one of you regular doom and gloom posters?
Thats a far greater horror than a mere economic downturn....of which we have had dozens and dozens and always manage to pull out of and end up a bit better off than before. >>
Great idea. I might wait until 2011 to post that one.
I do not think it is unreasonable to discuss strategies for a forced sale of coins in a down coin market. >>
WHERE is this down coin market that I keep hearing so much about?
I havent seen any prices falling in the area I search for.
EDITED TO ADD: In fact the capped bust half dimes are showing a sea of green in the price guide. >>
Did you read the title of the thread? This is a "hypothetical". Do you think there will never be a down market again?
Its just that when given a bunch of free time and a keyboard, it is natural to make up things....much better than drinking booze or smoking ***.
Many people find it hard to realize that even though their stock holdings have dropped about 30%, and they are paying more for gas, the rare coins just have not moved, valuewise.
BUT KEEP RINGING THAT LITTLE BELL AND YOU VERY WELL MAY BRING ON A CALAMITY OF YOUR OWN DESIGN.
<< <i>What was the felony?
Rooting for the Browns while wearing a Steeler's jersey.
BUT KEEP RINGING THAT LITTLE BELL AND YOU VERY WELL MAY BRING ON A CALAMITY OF YOUR OWN DESIGN.
I am but one small collector in a sea of many thousand and do not have the ability to move the market. If you do not think a bad economy has the potential to move the coin market, that's your folly. Doug Winter and Laura Sperber, who have more credibility and undoubtedly more experience than a nameless, faceless "ambro51" are flashing warning signs. Oh, I forgot, you collect MPLs. I have read on the PCGS Registry Forum (aka MPL Pump-n-Dump Board) that they only go up in value. Yeah, right.
You can always buy back the crap, but replacing the cream is much, much harder.
<< <i>
<< <i>Well, if you know you will be getting another job and will be continuing your coin collection then I'd take a loan for the short term, pay that off and then get back into the collecting habit. >>
That sounds like a terrible idea. In a financial crisis, the last thing one needs is another financial obligation. >>
If the future was not as clear as you made it then yes it's a terrible idea. If you know the income is coming then it saves the trauma of selling coins you don't want to get rid of. This way you still have the option of selling the coins at a future date when you lose the backup job.
<< <i>on the same day that my mother-in-law came to us and told us she was behind on her house payment. >>
No, that's my mother in law.
If Longacre didn't have such a sunny disposition, my livin'-high-on-the-hog-on-debt inlaws would get me down, but that's the subject of another thread.
To answer your question, I would sell the minimum necessary to get me through the rough times, with the lesser quality coins getting sold first. Only then would I pull out a Moose™ and sell it (and, unfortuately, I am not referring to my mother in law).
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
i don't look at my matty's in the same way...i don't see them as having a price tag...if i've to bear financial pain...then so be it...i grow
at least now there's no reason to sell to a b&m thank gawd for the internet
I would sell everything that is currently trading below mint-issued price.