people having less money = reason for recent pm decline ?
konsole
Posts: 795 ✭✭✭
A fellow employee at work seems to be pretty well rounded in his knowledge base so I decided to give the current financial situation a test run with him. He agreed that yes the markets still had a ways to go down and would probably be a couple years before their will be a comeback, if at all. When I mentioned precious metals to him he mentioned something along the lines of other countries and the gold standard. That was gold though and silver has alot more of my attention so I didnt really pay much attention to his gold rant. With silver he agrees that it will be much higher in the near future, but for the recent huge decline he thinks that it is mostly because people in the dying economy have less money to spend on the metal. I thought that ya maybe that could be part of the equation, maybe 25%, but couldnt help to disagree with him that its the biggest reason for the 50% decline.
Do you guys think that people not having that much money to spend on silver, and reducing demand, was the biggest reason for the recent decline, or just a small percentage of it, or not even enough that it was negligible? It would make sense that if it was a major factor then it could be a big hinderence on the price moving forward.
Do you guys think that people not having that much money to spend on silver, and reducing demand, was the biggest reason for the recent decline, or just a small percentage of it, or not even enough that it was negligible? It would make sense that if it was a major factor then it could be a big hinderence on the price moving forward.
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Comments
You can't find silver anywhere near melt at this time.. It's out there somewhere. Just not where
I am looking.
Unless of course you want to buy 100 and 1000 ounce bars at once. But for the common small
investor like myself. You can expect to pay 2 to 4 dollars over spot.
If it were the case your co-worker suggested. I should be able to buy all I wanted for close to spot.
I would not put much stock in your co-workers knowledge. See what the real world has to offer.
in my mind. Computer makers, car manufacturers, house builders,
etc.. the list is endless are slow/slowing down in a big way. Even china
is cooling off.
This will mean those companies will buy less and less of copper,
silver, gold, and plat.
I think that has a lot to do with it.
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Speculators ran up PMs and many decided to get out. With bank
failure after bank failure gold has had a hard time staying above
that magical 1000 number. I find that amazing. It will be very interesting
over the next week what gold does as this is a "this is it!" moment.
If people see gold start its creep down again many will give up hope
for the short term gold can be a way to make good money. So much
emotions are involved in this and not fundamentals like when gold
was 500-600.
I still think, short term, as in years, the best days are behind it. 400
to 800 was the smart play. 800 to 1200 is wishful thinking short term.
I can be wrong and have been before! This is my gut feeling.
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lets see what others add. i may edit this post as i think of more reasons.
I wouldn't call him slow, but maybe half-fast.
BTW, there is no gold standard, not since August 15, 1971.
Nixon killed Bretton-Woods on that day.
We are all Keynesians now.
The "market", if he meant the DOW does have a nasty loud drop coming. Down to 9000 first, bring in some new money as it levels out there and then on down even further. 6000 wouldn't surprise me in time.
2009 is going to be one for the record books, as if this isn't already.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
No Country I know of operates on a Gold Standard Today. Gold Standard Bad , Gold/Silver Standard GOOD!
roadrunner
<< <i>If you have 3.50 hours, the best education you could do is this:
No Country I know of operates on a Gold Standard Today. Gold Standard Bad , Gold/Silver Standard GOOD! >>
Good for newbies. I'd recommend it.
However, most of us who have been around here for a while know all of this and much more.
Just don't take everything at face value, few productions are ever done without at least some slight slant to them.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Out of bullets, methinks.
<< <i>"The recent PM decline was PPT induced just as the rebound is now that the PPT took their eye off the ball."
Out of bullets, methinks. >>
Not out yet, but they are running low on ammo.
We will still see some downward pushes that defy reason, but not as many and not as strong.
In time they will give up the battle rather than admit they couldn't win it.
That's when they finally do run out of bullets.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff