WaMu, HSBC, Wachovia, UBS, Citi? FED "buys" AIG!
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
Lehman not looking good with BoA backing out, and now talking about merging with Merrill. Lehman being left for dead?
Should be an interesting week for the metals to sort through all this.
Logic says a recovery. Can the FED really stage another metals take down like they did back in March? I have my doubts.
roadrunner
Should be an interesting week for the metals to sort through all this.
Logic says a recovery. Can the FED really stage another metals take down like they did back in March? I have my doubts.
roadrunner
0
Comments
Seriously, I do see lots of complacency now. Our economy is on the precipice and John Q. Public seems..... what? me worry?
roadrunner
will also need commodities to strengthen and inflation to be a leading story...that won't be for a few weeks...why i say not q-u-i-t-e yet.
would not be suprised if $15-$20 gains to $900...then who knows..... more manipulation? it can be made on both sides of the trade so why not?
i do not want to get the thread nuked so have a great day. BTY John says hi
I wonder what their discussing? From what I've heard they will let Lehman sink.
AIG is trying to raise 50 billion before the markets open tomorrow.
How in the world do you raise 50 billion overnight?
I'm not an economist by any stretch, how in the hell is the dollar gaining with the biggest names going down?
There is a CNBC special tonight at 8pm ET, hosted by David Faber.
I say PM's are poised for a vertical move, very soon.
Scott
AIG needs $18 Billion at worst. The won't need it until their debt gets downgraded which won't happen until tomorrow at the earliest. So if they sell something (like their Airplane leasing biz) first to show they are serious they might avoid a downgrade and should stay afloat in any case. I hope so becuase I'm long (and wrong) AIG.
This has been the busiest weekend for New York financial CEOs and traders in many decades!
It is easy to raise $50 Billion overnight. All you have to do is sell $60 Billion worth of stuff.
The problem is nobody can agree what the stuff is actually worth...
Buy Dec US dollar index puts at 75 for 280.00, I got mine for 260 on friday------------------------BigE
Box of 20
Tomorrow will be very interesting.
Scott
Guess Merrill wins by beating Lehman to the finish line by a nose.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
What a night. Roadrunner, what's your take on the Fed cutting rates?
Miles
Now they have to figure out how to keep Walmu and AIG kicking for 7 more weeks. Maybe Goldman can pick up Walmu and foreign bucks can buy a piece of AIG to keep them afloat.
If the FED lowers rates it would imply they don't have a handle on this mess....which of course they do not. So I wouldn't expect it. And why would they add further fuel to kick gold up further?
roadrunner
It will be interesting to find out what effect Lehman's long or short gold derivatives have on the market. Imagine if they were heavy shorted on the dollar and long on commodities and just got crunched. The counter-party on all their losing CDS and derivatives shouldn't expect to get a whole lot for their dollars. Figuring there are TRILLIONS of Lehman losses to be accounted for, someone else will be taking some hits, but probably not until 2009 which to WS seems like eons away.
roadrunner
I'm hiding under a pillow tomorrow morning! To bad I can't sleep these days...
I knew it would happen.
wsj link
Holy derivatives, Batman! Stay tuned for Monday, same Bat time same Bat channel.
At least the FED showed the world that they would not allow just anyone to feed without constraint at the begging bowl trough. Let this be a warning to everyone else who expects a free handout...even you Bill Gross. But one report already shows a behind the scenes FED bailing out for Lehman as they unwind their bets.
OK, now back to the business of lining up the next several FED bailouts. Somehow the PTB will spin all this as positive on Monday. Wells Fargo owns some 1/2 BILL in pref. Lehman shares that no longer pay dividends. What's that hit worth to them?
roadrunner
Camelot
<< <i>I say a quick 12.00 bump right off the bat when spot opens in a few minutes. I bet silver well over 11.00----------------BigE >>
Very good.
John Evans the C.E.O Of Atlantic Central Bankers just predicted last week that we will see another 200 Banks go under in the US in the next 12 months. When he predicted this only 9 Banks had fallen. We are only hearing about the Big Guys falling right now in the media, what about the Regional and local Banks? And the Population in the world keeps increasing.
Martin Grouss who manages a fund worth Two and a Half Billion Dollars very successfully and is known as one of Wall Street's Brightest Fund Mgr's bringing returns of 20% per annum for more than 20 consecutive years, predicts a huge jump in commodity stocks going into the fourth quarter of 08. His view on the energy need's of America is one I personally find more attractive and realistic then Boon Pickens. He blames the Governments safety codes on Autos' as the main problem. Where in Europe a car can get 60MPG, but in America the car is deemed unsafe, yet they let people drive Motorcycles. A growing population in the US from 300 Million to 400 Million and a global population of 6 1/2 Billion to 9 Billion who all need to eat food and get to one place from another by driving cars which use energy. Simple but effective and realistic Demogaphics.
Well someone will be right, and someone will be wrong on what the 4th qtr holds for us. Considering that all this weekend fallout was predicted many months ago it should have come as no surprise that these entities failed. The prices should have already be factored in fully. The market is always omnipotent and well ahead of us right? So no big changes should be expected Monday in New York.
roadrunner
The MER deal looks like it could tank BAC.
Tonight's Call:
I would SHORT BAC near $34, and cover just under $25;
or, if you're brave, ACCEPT that BAC is NOT "too big to fail,"
and ride it to below $15.
(The MER purchase appears to be ALL BAC shares. That
is a major hit to equity for BAC shareholders. Not good.)
Holiday today!
<< <i>How'd you like to be in Korea or Japan?
Holiday today! >>
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Asia will just mirror the US, on Tuesday.
I suspect tomorrow will not be a killer.
Over-Hyped disasters have a tendency NOT to be so bad.
NOTHING that happened this weekend is a "complete surprise."
Most of the MER-shorts were hedged; those who were not will
sell stuff and that may bring some wide pressure.
The world will not end before November 5.
roadrunner
<< <i>Not to worry.... these bank failures are business as usual. Ho Hum... keep watching American Idol.... Uncle Bennie will take care of us!
Seriously, I do see lots of complacency now. Our economy is on the precipice and John Q. Public seems..... what? me worry? >>
Hey, how 'bout those Cubs??
maybe gold will ride it's own wave, soon
could raise 50 billion just
from the members on this Forum.
Camelot
I thought gold would rally more. Gee, I wish I had cash as I believe there are many bargains to be had.
Looks like $900 gold might not be as far away as I thought!
<< <i>Looks like $900 gold might not be as far away as I thought! >>
Uh? All the PM's are tanking in the overseas markets. Gold at $900 is not in the forseable future...Now, Gold at $700?
<< <i>Platinum just fell off a cliff. $1114. Will we see it dip under $1000? >>
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Yes.
A Federal bailout of F and GM will cause it to recover nicely, though.
(Both companies should have $25B in loan guarantees, soon.)
<< <i>
If the FED lowers rates it would imply they don't have a handle on this mess....which of course they do not. So I wouldn't expect it. And why would they add further fuel to kick gold up further?
roadrunner >>
i agree but rumors are all over that a cut is a possibility, gold has been booted so far down....it was probably part of the master scheme
if they do another rate cut, the kick in gold will still fall far short, but may be a catalyst for sustained upward movement.
roadrunner
<< <i>Looks like $900 gold might not be as far away as I thought! >>