direction of the markets?

konsole

I know this isnt specifically precious metals talk but the condition of the economy is related to precious metals and I'm sure alot of you have been paying attention to all the markets recently. Since the beginning of July the DOW has been as low as 10,900 and as high as 11,800, but most of the time its been in the 10,400 range. Recently there will be a big up day of 200 points with a big 200 point down day not far behind. But from the middle of May to the middle of July the DOW had a continual drop of about 2,000. Whats your guys take on this sideways trend were seeing now? Is the market just taking a breather before it falls more or is it going to start going back up again? Lastly if oil stops dropping, the dollar stops rising, and the markets stay leveled off or continue to fall, how will the precious metals being affected?

I would also like to get your guys take on all these financial institutions and what kind of affect their failure/bailout/buyout would have. Names like Lehman Bros., AIG, Washington Mutual come to mind but feel free to mention others.

rgCoinGuy

The credit market has to be straightened out before anything gets substantially better. As far as Lehman Brothers, I am hearing that Sunday is D-Day, either they find a buyer and work out a deal before markets open Monday, or all bets are off and look for a big push downward.

RedTiger

It's been a nasty stock market for sure, even nastier in other markets such as Germany. One wildcard that has moved to the back burner for now is what Israel will do about Iran. Punter site Intrade shows a 20% to 26% chance of an air strike. Military action could unwind into a very nasty scenario for the stock market, so I will be cautious on equities going into October. In my mind the most likely time for action is after the high holy days, before the U. S. election.

link to Intrade (airstrike odds are near the bottom. Intrade also gives odds on the U. S. presidential election, which I think was its origin.

For those that believe that military action means certain things, remember that when Israel took out the Syrian nuclear plant in September 2007, it did not move markets in any lasting way, and the punters willing to put up money are only seeing a 20% to 25% chance of military action. However, that is enough for a cautious person to avoid making big bets.

rgCoinGuy

Possible Lehman's BK tonight

Of course, as bad as this seems, the way the market has been lately, this news will probably make the market go up, who knows....

CarlWohlforth

Looks to me like stock markets won't stabilize until the housing market does. The Fed is doing everything it can to avoid a depression. So I'm expecting the end result to be inflation. So that means precious metals will go up. I'm a big owner of gold, oil and other commodities here.

rgCoinGuy

But Greenspan is predicting a Recession

Bear

What worries me, is when the Government keeps saying

that the "Economy is fundamentally sound". I keep hearing,

Happy New Year, 1929.

Lets count the ways of Nirvana

1. Credit....Lousy

2. Banks...On the ropes

3. Housing..Terrible

4. Inflation going up

5. Unemployment going up

6. Storms more violent

7. Military suicides way up

8. National Debt at least 70 trillion dollars(includes on and off budget)

9. Coin market, except for humming bird tongues, stagnant

10.PMs down

11.Hot and fetid air from politics, obnoxious.

12. Four US Naval battle groups near Iran

13. Greenspan says no go on any tax cuts

Whats to worry about.

OPA

<< <i>Looks to me like stock markets won't stabilize until the housing market does. The Fed is doing everything it can to avoid a depression. So I'm expecting the end result to be inflation. So that means precious metals will go up. I'm a big owner of gold, oil and other commodities here. >>



I hope your family has a history of longevity.. I don't see the PM's going up this time do to inflation, everyone appears to believe so, therefore, I’ll take the contrarian view. ( I've learned a long time ago not to follow the "lemmings") ...It may be years before we see a repeat of this years’ high.

jamakin

...It may be years before we see a repeat of this years’ high

IMO All the better to continune buying small amounts that fit one's budget. Slow and stead wins the race.

cladking

It's hard to have a good panic and financial distress when the government
is there passing out money to most comers and all goers. This mess is more
than only the real estate debacle it is the unwinding of derivitives and all amid
a collection of unfavorable long term trends.

Eventually things will stabilize because there's no choice. The long term trends
will mostly reestablish and inflation will be exascerbated.

The stock market is getting ever closer to the time it will explode upward and most
people should have about a third of their stock portfolio full with safe stocks that pays
dividends. It will probably take a couple years at least before you should start dump-
ing money in this market and increasing the percentage of stock.

I could have never foreseen the behavior of precious metals. It makes a little sense only
in retrospect. Gold is still a good place to park money as insurance and inflation protect-
ion. Silver is still grossly undervalued and will someday sell at far higher levels.

roadrunner

If you have considerable inflation...the PM's will go up. It's not like it's an option.

roadrunner

Walmann

The direction of the markets is that of a Canadian Geese in Fall, southward. It is all a question of how long the winter will be before they come back. It could be a longer than normal winter.

ttown

Were doing a little better than the Russia markets:

Russian Markets Halted as Emergency Funding Fails to Halt Rout