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Ryan Howard for NL MVP......

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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,155 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>But you're forgetting the second part of it-- if Howard had been that good from April to August, and the Phils were far ahead in the divisional race, the very same people touting him for MVP right now would actually think less of his '08 campaign because 'he isn't performing in the heat of a pennant race'. >>



    But boopotts, what you're not taking into consideration are Howard's runs realized. We'll just have to wait until Dr. J. graces us with his presence and reveals the sacred formula before we can be sure whether what you say is true. At least I know I personally will never comment on the MVP vote again until I have this valuable piece of information.

    I will tell you, without giving away the complete formula, that Howard's comprehensive batter bases would be lower in the scenario you describe.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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    Dallasactuary,

    You have obviously become fixated with me from your replies in this thread and others referencing me repeatedly. I find this disturbing and borderline man stalking. You still have not performed a complete statisitical analysis and are still relying on limited data sets to fit your argument. Your excuse that you do not want to take the time does not hold water.

    Having performed my fair share of statistical analysis, I have to say you would be laughed out of the room at most legit Universities. Either perform a complete analysis or move onto a subject more up your alley. Your credibility as an "actuary" is coming under question. Did you get your degree through some kind of correspondance school pushed by Sally Struthers. "You too can repair VCRs, Guns, or even become an Actuary in no time at all!"

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    image
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    I love that gif Von. I am going to save it for later use.

    Though others are attempting to derail this thread with the same repetitive comments, I will continue to update it with Howard's exploits all the way to the MVP.

    J
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    f Howard was better than every other player in the NL from April through August, the Phillies would be be far enough ahead that it wouldn't be as much of a pennant race



    That is pure speculation.





    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    ut you're forgetting the second part of it-- if Howard had been that good from April to August, and the Phils were far ahead in the divisional race, the very same people touting him for MVP right now would actually think less of his '08 campaign because 'he isn't performing in the heat of a pennant race'.


    Yes, but how much less is the question.


    Steve


    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    reveals the sacred formula


    Ok Dallas what do you call RBI + R - HR's?


    I knew exactly what he meant when he called it 'runs realized'

    I could not find it, but remember back in the early 80's it was one of a bunch
    of stats that was used to form who would be a class a or class b free agent.


    Other stats were things like games played, at bats and some defensive stats.

    The players and mlb agreed on a 'formula' and it determined compensation a team
    would get in the form of draft picks if a team lost a free agent to another team.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    << <i>Yes, but how much less is the question.

    Steve >>



    It is a question indeed, but is it the question? Only time, and endless debating, will tell.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    No a few other questions could be asked especially the one where it was claimed that had he produced the same way all season
    some would think he is not producing now.

    Why anyone would think that is beyond me.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Oh, Dr. J., I am so disappointed. Here I had dropped all of the name-calling, had in fact admitted that you were the greatest statistical genius of our, nay, any age and all I humbly sought was for you to reveal the formula you so cryptically mentioned. Instead, I get attacked? You, sir, are no longer my hero. You are a false stochastic prophet.

    But thank you anyway for writing "Having performed my fair share of statistical analysis" - I laughed so hard I think I need a change of shorts.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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    << <i>Oh, Dr. J., I am so disappointed. Here I had dropped all of the name-calling, had in fact admitted that you were the greatest statistical genius of our, nay, any age and all I humbly sought was for you to reveal the formula you so cryptically mentioned. Instead, I get attacked? You, sir, are no longer my hero. You are a false stochastic prophet.

    But thank you anyway for writing "Having performed my fair share of statistical analysis" - I laughed so hard I think I need a change of shorts. >>





    Hello stalker.

    image
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    << <i>That is pure speculation. >>



    but the idea that Howard wasn't close to being the best player in the league is not
    Tom
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    No in that regard you are correct, too bad that is not what you originally said.

    And you are correct he 'wasn't' however, it seems that has now changed and is debatable.

    He may very well be the best player at this time.


    Steve





    Good for you.
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    Howard hits HR #46 to put the Phils up 6-5 after being down 5-4. High Leverage of course.

    However Myers had a meltdown immediately proceeding giving up another 5 runs....

    Season update (game still in progress).

    46 HR
    140 RBI (!!!!)
    98 R
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    MorgothMorgoth Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
    There isn't anything sadder than a stats fight that gets out of hand and erupts into a full blown nerd gang war.

    I can't figure out which side is the crips as both players wear red though.


    West side!!!!!!!!!!!
    Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Be quiet or someone may start a maz in the hall thread.


    Steve



    image
    Good for you.
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    MorgothMorgoth Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
    He is already in there and nothing you can do about it now nanny nanny boo boo.

    Maz RULES!
    Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,595 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm just amazed that a thread entitled "Ryan Howard for NL MVP" has not a single post from SteveK or Hyperion and only a precious few from JS...image


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    I can too. I can create a thread and then shower you with all types of stats and pcts of what he did or didn't do during a solstice, full moon
    or if the tide was high. I'd then compare him to guys he never played with, in parks he never set foot in and then you would see if your hero was deserving, or in what exact order
    he was or was not. I'd have graphs and charts and all sorts of stuff.


    I could do that but choose to beat the Howard horse instead, so watch it fellow.


    image

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    MorgothMorgoth Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
    My pie charts are bigger then your scatter plots.
    Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Hyperion made a token appearance early in the thread.

    lol Stevek does not want to jinx the guy. I have been trying my best though.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    You mean my scatter brain?


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,595 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hyperion made a token appearance early in the thread.

    You're right, LOL! Forgot about that. Maybe I can get this thread on tape, LOL!


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    By the time the season ends this guy will probably have 150 RBI. That is MVP type numbers.


    often times it is not how you start but how you finish that matters.

    This seems to be one of those times.


    I want to thank everyone that participated in this thread.



    image



    Steve
    Good for you.
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    No RBI for Howard tonight, but he did get the game winning run, his 99th of the season!

    After drawing a walk using his eye at the plate, Howard scored from second on a 2 out single, hustling all the way home. It was the difference maker in the game, putting the Phils up 3-2, the final score. Talk about clutch.

    The Phils are now back in 1st place in the NL East by 0.5 games, and Milwaukee lost. Looks like the post season may be a lock at this point.
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    joestalinjoestalin Posts: 12,473 ✭✭
    END OF DISCUSSION
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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mortal lock.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,595 ✭✭✭✭✭
    But what about the high leverage RBIs?? Hoopster and Dallas will roast you all, I tell you, HAHAHAHA!!!


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    Howard update....

    Game Winning High Leverage HR yesterday, 4 RBI, 1 Run

    Season Totals....


    48 HR
    146 RBI (!!)
    102 R (!!!)

    This MVP is now a Stone Cold Mortal Lock for Howard.....
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    HyperionHyperion Posts: 7,438 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm just amazed that a thread entitled "Ryan Howard for NL MVP" has not a single post from SteveK or Hyperion and only a precious few from JS...image >>



    Impressive power numbers and a fun guy to watch but I dont know about MVP. puhols is batting .350 and is incredibly well balanced if we're just looking at offensive production. delgado? you could argue Reyes makes the team go and that Beltran has had the best offensive year of any CF in the NL. utter coinflip.

    If Santana wins todays game and the mets find themselves somehow in the playoffs... you could argue HE should be NL MVP!
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Tough to argue if a guy winds up with 50 hr and 150 RBI which Mr. Howard may wind up with.

    I also agree the league has a few deserving candidates.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    This just in................

    The National League sucks. No one is deserving of the award.

    Sincerely,
    The All Star Game
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    Wow...

    Just looked at Howard's production during the month of September when the division and playoff race is on the line....


    BA 342
    RBI 32 (!!! a new team record)
    HR 11 (!!!!)

    This guy needs to be renamed "Clutch City".
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    I also noticed this morning that he does not lead the league in K's anymore, nor does he hold the record.

    That distinction now belongs to Reynolds of AZ.

    WTG Reynolds.
    Steve
    Good for you.
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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Let's assume for the sake of argument that players on great teams and bad teams aren't valuable, as you guys insist is the case. So only Phillies, Mets and Brewers are eligible for the MVP and we don't even need to check the stats to see what anyone else is doing; again, as you guys insist we should do.

    Assuming all of that, my question for the Phillies fans - the ones with functioning brains, sorry Dr. J - is this: did you watch the game or did you read the box score? We have one player who went 2 for 4, struck out twice and made his 19th error at first resulting in two unearned runs and we're planning a parade for him. Meanwhile, the best player on the team goes 3 for 4, never strikes out, and steals a base which creates a run that wouldn't have scored otherwise. Utley now leads Howard by 42 points in batting average, 42 points in OBP and trails by a mere 7 points in slugging. And he plays second base well while Howard plays first base as poorly as it has ever been played by anyone.

    That Utley is more valuable to the Phillies is so obvious that I simply don't believe that anyone, except Dr. J, doesn't see it. If it was close, maybe, but it's not; not even remotely close. Replace Ryan Howard with an average first baseman (ignoring the fact that Howard IS an average first baseman) and the Phillies still win their division. Replace Utley with an average second baseman and they finish behind Florida. If you twist my arm you could force me to say that that's my opinion, but I wouldn't mean it. The opposite opinion, that Howard has helped the Phillies more than Utley, IS just an opinion, but it's on the order of the opinion that Dom DiMaggio was better than Willie Mays. You're entitled to it, but how am I supposed to take it seriously?

    And someday, when Ryan Howard is living in a van down by the river with Dave Kingman and Cecil Fielder, we'll be here discussing why Chase Utley isn't getting more HOF votes. And the exact same people who are championing Howard today are going to left wondering how it might have been different if Utley had won an MVP. And I am going to be laughing my butt off.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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    joestalinjoestalin Posts: 12,473 ✭✭
    Utley carried the team for the first part of the season but went cold down the stretch. Howard carried the team into the post season. Did he
    win more games with the bat than lose them with the glove....yes indeed. I'll take that.

    There is NO WAY that Howard doesn't win it. NO WAY.

    JS
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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,155 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Utley carried the team for the first part of the season but went cold down the stretch. Howard carried the team into the post season. >>


    So carrying the team 90% of the way to the playoffs isn't as valuable as carrying them that last 10%? The single only reason that the Phillies are in a position where ANYONE could get them within sight of the playoffs is Chase Utley. Thanks, Chase, but what have you done for me lately? Now that we've incorrectly written him off as "cold" we can't even acknowledge that he won the game for the Phillies yesterday?




    << <i>Did he win more games with the bat than lose them with the glove....yes indeed. I'll take that. >>


    In the first place, it's about a wash. For the season, Howard is barely above average as a hitter and he's the worst fielder in the league. But the important point, the one where I have to admit I admire the sheer force of will you all must be exerting not to see, is that Utley has won more games with his bat alone than Howard has. Several more. How can anyone who claims to be a fan not even remember how many games Howard lost for the Phillies this year? He may have been leading the league in RBI at the time, but at the break, if he wasn't the worst first baseman in the leaugue he was very, very close. Can someone explain why those games don't count? No, of course you can't; you would look like a fool if you even tried.




    << <i>There is NO WAY that Howard doesn't win it. NO WAY. >>


    Did people think Joe Gordon ought to win the MVP over Ted Williams? Did they feel stupid later? Did they at least understand why everyone else tought they looked stupid?

    Now that I mention it, Joe Gordon's team won the Pennant that year, Williams' team didn't make the Playoffs. Forget what people might have thought in 1942, you guys right now, today, are arguing that Joe Gordon DID deserve the MVP. You will deny it, because you realize at some level how it makes you look, but it is categorically what you ARE arguing. Actually, the Red Sox finished 9 games out of the playoffs and the Cardinals are only 5 games out; Howard as MVP makes even LESS sense than Gordon.

    Show of hands - who thinks that Joe Gordon winning the MVP in 1942 was a horrible choice AND thinks that Howard deserves the MVP this year over Pujols. Yes, it's like asking "show of hands, who can't tie their own shoes", but put aside your embarrassment and raise those hands up high.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Utley did not carry the team 90% of the way Dallas.

    And you neglected the Dodgers in your diatribe.

    Also, the voters seem to vote for a player on a post season bound team, (not all the time)


    MVP votes are in before post season play, that means Monday or Tuesday next.

    What happens the last month of the season sometimes will be used by a voter, is it right?
    Not for any message board bloggers to decide, unless of course they have a vote.


    Sometimes a guy has a season from srat to finish, other times it is a great beginning
    then again it could be a great ending.

    What is fact is that on the day before Thanksgiving we will know who will be the NL MVP.

    Until that time it is all conjecture.


    IMO I see it like this:

    Howard
    Pujols
    Wright
    Utley
    Ramierez, M
    Reyes
    Sabathia


    The above listed guys will be the top vote getters.

    Steve

    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Replace Ryan Howard with an average first baseman (ignoring the fact that Howard IS an average first baseman) and the Phillies still win their division.



    Steve the Phils won the divison by one game! They could have just as easily lost today and tomorrow.

    You need to look beyond the numbers. They are blinding you.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    MorgothMorgoth Posts: 3,950 ✭✭✭
    I didn't know that to be average at 1B you had to hit 50 HRs.
    Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,595 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Agree with much of what Steve (winpitcher) stated. Delgado should get some votes, too, if the Mets clinch the wildcard.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Ahhh I forgot about Delgado, see what an 0 for 4 on the second to last day will do to a guy?

    It is going to be a close vote that is for sure.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    Dallasactuary must be practicing his stand up routine, or he has finally broken down and reached raving lunatic status.

    The major league leader in HR, RBI, and Runs Realized is an average player?

    Keep drinking the Kool Aid buddy.

    Phils winning the NL East will have an impact on the votes "Clutch City" Howard gets for the NL MVP.
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    PROMETHIUS88PROMETHIUS88 Posts: 2,844 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I love seeing all you guys "debating" if Howard is the mvp or not. I couldn't hold back any longer. Let's face it, he ain't ever going to win a gold glove and the strikeouts and average are, well, not what you would expect from an mvp. Sure the home runs and rbi's are there, but does that make him a true mvp? I have to laugh when I read how "Howard carried the Phillies into the playoffs this year". Seriously, have you been watching baseball with blinders on???? The huge dump the Brewers and Mets down the stretch are the only reason Philly will be playing next week. I'm not a fan of the Phillies, nor am I a hater. I am a Cubs fan and the Cardinal's are the enemy in my world. But, with the game on the line there is no more dangerous hitter in all the game then Albert Pujols..... hands down. I would even have to consider him more valuable just because the rest of the team sucked so bad... Without him, they wouldn't even be a .500 club.
    Promethius881969@yahoo.com
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    joestalinjoestalin Posts: 12,473 ✭✭


    << <i>I love seeing all you guys "debating" if Howard is the mvp or not. I couldn't hold back any longer. Let's face it, he ain't ever going to win a gold glove and the strikeouts and average are, well, not what you would expect from an mvp. Sure the home runs and rbi's are there, but does that make him a true mvp? I have to laugh when I read how "Howard carried the Phillies into the playoffs this year". Seriously, have you been watching baseball with blinders on???? The huge dump the Brewers and Mets down the stretch are the only reason Philly will be playing next week. I'm not a fan of the Phillies, nor am I a hater. I am a Cubs fan and the Cardinal's are the enemy in my world. But, with the game on the line there is no more dangerous hitter in all the game then Albert Pujols..... hands down. I would even have to consider him more valuable just because the rest of the team sucked so bad... Without him, they wouldn't even be a .500 club. >>




    What are you smoking? Phillies won the divison becuase they went down the stretch and won games...and did it on the bat of
    Ryan Howard. You can say all you want about the Mets choking but the Phils played lights out at the end of the season.

    When voters cast their ballots they arn't going to be thinking about Albert hitting a few singles to beat the Pirates and secure 3rd
    place, they are going to thinking about the moon shots that Howard had going down the stretch...thats all that counts!

    Pujols fan is bitter right now....and I understand, Bonds robbed you a few years, but Howard is the new beast of the east and no way
    doesn't win this one!

    JS
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,595 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The huge dump the Brewers and Mets down the stretch are the only reason Philly will be playing next week

    Mets are 17-13 in their last 30 games...so that statement is false.

    Philliers have played lights out and are playing hot when they need to.. Howard is a big part of that run, without question. Most voters prefer to vote for a player whose team makes the playoffs, especially in this era when four teams in each league qualify, and I'm inclined to agree with that bias. Back when Ted Williams was playing, I don't think you can be that particular since just ONE team from each league made it to postseason play, but these days you don't even need to win your own measly four-team division to get to the dance, thanks to the beauty of the wildcard. So an MVP vote ought to go to a guy whose team at least qualifies for postseason play, IMO.


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    stevekstevek Posts: 28,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Babe Howard is a mortal lock MVP.
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    << <i>Phillies won the divison becuase they went down the stretch and won games...and did it on the bat of
    Ryan Howard >>



    The Phillies won the division due to a lot of things. The 74 wins April through August had a lot more to do with it than the 16 wins in September. The Yankees have won just as many games in September as the Phillies, what does that say about Rodriguez winning the AL MVP?



    << <i>When voters cast their ballots they arn't going to be thinking about Albert hitting a few singles to beat the Pirates and secure 3rd
    place, they are going to thinking about the moon shots that Howard had going down the stretch...thats all that counts! >>



    If the arguement for Howard winning the MVP is that votes are based on silly criteria and if the player who does the best in the final month on a 90 win team is the criteria they are using this year, Howard is most definitely the MVP. If they base it on who did the most to help their team win over 162 games, Howard is not even close
    Tom
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    frankhardyfrankhardy Posts: 8,059 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I cannot wait to resurrect this thread after the votes are in.

    Shane

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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,155 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The Phillies won the division due to a lot of things. The 74 wins April through August had a lot more to do with it than the 16 wins in September. The Yankees have won just as many games in September as the Phillies, what does that say about Rodriguez winning the AL MVP? >>



    Thank you, Tom, that about sums up the lunacy passing for logic in this thread. But there will be no response just as there was no response to my question about Joe Gordon. Other than Dr. J, I am fairly certain that everyone here understands that it is impossible to believe that Howard deserves the MVP, that A-Rod does not deserve it, and that Joe Gordon did not deserve it simultaneously. EVERY argument advanced here for why Howard deserves the MVP applies to Joe Gordon - every one. I called Andre Dawson the worst MVP ever and some of the very same people arguing on Howard's behalf immediately told me I was crazy - Joe Gordon was the worst MVP. Joe Gordon, the best player on the team that won the AL that year, THAT Joe Gordon. The Joe Gordon that, unlike Howard, was the best player on his own team and the second best player in the AL. THAT Joe Gordon is the worst MVP pick in history, but Ryan Howard obviously deserves the MVP this year. Yeah, I'm supposed to listen to that argument and take it seriously.

    Ryan Howard almost certainly WILL win the MVP, just as Joe Gordon DID win the MVP. That the former is an even worse pick than the latter is obvious to me, and it simply has to be obvious to the people arguing that Howard should win it, if they believe their own arguments.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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