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OK... Looks like gov't is taking over Fannie & Freddie - opportunity to profit with PM trading?

How will the takeover of Fannie & Freddie affect the US dollar? Is this buy or sell time for PM's? If it's buy time, buying can fairly easily be done on the weekend to get a jump on the market. What's your take on this?

Comments

  • I don't think any common share holders will be able to buy any PMs after this deal. No Money!
  • Crystal ball not working very well, but I'd say the short-term is flat. Longer term, however, a takeover will likely cause higher inflation and is bullish for PM prices.
    -Ken
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I read that the shareholders are toast Sunday afternoon.

    Paulson likes these Sunday afternoon deals doesn't he(?)

    ren
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,124 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Crystal ball not working very well, but I'd say the short-term is flat. Longer term, however, a takeover will likely cause higher inflation and is bullish for PM prices. >>

    image

    BTW ... I send my crystal ball to the "boneyard" ... must have been made in China ... image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As long as they keep printing and printing (and they're printing faster than ever), PM's will rise. These short term undulations are just temporary market forces working their way out.

    Even if there is market manipulation, eventually that will come to an end and PM's will reach their true value.

    People ask, is it a good time to invest in PM's?

    I say, if you think the big governments of the world are going to keep printing money at an ever increasing pace, definitely YES!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Weekend bail outs give the FED and PPT a few days to coordinate their Monday am activites to pulverize metals and boost the dollar while some entity (like Fannie or Freddie) has defaulted. This way they can convince the sheeple that the dollar has power and to stick with it.

    Before a takeover of F&F they will of course coordinate a further takedown in gold to help initially boost the dollar. With luck the final result will be a wash as the dollar reverses a day or two after the Fannie pack explodes.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Unfortunately, you have to go with reverse logic with the metals-- they'll get killed this week because of the news.
  • What kind of person hears this news and starts thinking about how it will effect gold and silver prices? Wouldn't housing stocks or bank stocks, or currency futures be more directly influenced by this kind of news? Or a dozen other industries before metals and mining? Why go for the obtuse, indirect trade, when there are so many more direct plays?

    The rumor of this takeover/bailout was out over a month ago. The news will do what it will do, depending a lot on how many folks already positioned themselves after hearing the rumor. Best to watch the price action and the charts. If uncertain, best to stay clear.
  • PreTurbPreTurb Posts: 1,193 ✭✭✭
    What kind of person hears this news and starts thinking about how it will effect gold and silver prices?

    Someone who wants to participate in a fun PM message board and who also enjoys reading other peoples' posts. If we were all investment geniuses we wouldn't need to spend time here.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What kind of person hears this news and starts thinking about how it will effect gold and silver prices?

    Someone who's tired of the stock market and government paper.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What kind of person hears this news and starts thinking about how it will effect gold and silver prices?

    The kind of person who realizes the dollar's best days are behind it, and that PM's are a more truthful currency. You can probably stick Greenspan, Bernanke, and Paulson into that category as well.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What kind of person hears this news and starts thinking about how it will effect gold and silver prices? Wouldn't housing stocks or bank stocks, or currency futures be more directly influenced by this kind of news? Or a dozen other industries before metals and mining? Why go for the obtuse, indirect trade, when there are so many more direct plays? >>



    Perhpas those looking for a great entry point for a long term physical buy and hold.
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    you will make a profit on Monday. i guarantee it. you will profit from the takeover like finding that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!!!!!!!!

    i guarantee you will.....but you need to know if PM's will go up or down, when, and by how much.

    you will be able to maximise by getting in and out several times a day, just time for the ups and downs perfectly.

    may keep an eye when the Asian markets open later today and ignore it.


    takeover
  • The financials who own stock in Fannie and Freddie will suffer. The rest of the market will do well. Dollar will weaken. PMs will do OK.

    I will be very happy if correct on 3 out of 4 and very unhappy if wrong on 3 out of 4.
  • The initial reaction is up across the board

    Tokyo stocks +2%
    gold +$11
    silver +42 cents
    US stock futures +2.5%

    We'll see if these gains increase or fade by Monday's New York close.

    Again, it is extremely risky for newbies looking to make short term trades in fast moving market conditions. Spreads are wider, mistakes are easier to make, vs. when conditions are calm. If a person likes betting long shots, go ahead and put your money down.

    Long termers don't need every last percent on entry and exit, and it is a dream to believe a person can time their entries and exits even if they try to. More likely, novices will buy near the tops and sell near the bottoms. It is the way of the world, always has been, always will be. A few newbies will get lucky, and beat the odds, but understand that the odds are stacked against the newbies when they play the timing game.
  • fcfc Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭
    i predict the gains in PMs will be wiped out by friday.. everyone is
    hoping for a reason for them to go up and i will be the contrarian
    saying they will end lower because there is very little reason for
    manufacturers to be buying the metal when they are slowing down
    production wise.

    gold is different though. it has held up surprisingly well but even it
    will find these quick jumps up paired down in short order.
  • trozautrozau Posts: 3,455 ✭✭✭
    Asians will keep on stacking physical on every buying opportunity. image
    trozau (troy ounce gold)
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The main impact won't be felt right away. This is a bi-partisan effort, approved by Congress, which Paulson said wouldn't be necessary just a few weeks ago when the bill was passed.

    Why the Mortgage Bailout is Bad News

    If this truly doubles the national debt, and as social security payments rise during baby boomer retirements...inflation will become unmanageable.

    Short Term, who knows. Long Term, bad deal for us. All of us.

    Unless there's a taxpayer rebellion, and unless this takeover gets reversed, there is no way to avoid a currency meltdown.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    the dollar has nowhere to go but down based on this news

    if it stabilizies or rises, we might as well throw in the towel.......the market is FIXED.
  • Need to be thinking long term right now, no way to predict short term, but long term, the writing is on the wall, IMHO.
    imageQuid pro quo. Yes or no?
  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,461 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is this the largest Fed bailout/takeover in economic histrory?

    Buffet seems to think this is a good move, waiting longer would be even worse on a macro scale.

    Is this the beginning of the end? I find it hard to believe that it's smooth sailing from here on out.

    The house next door to me is 189k, it started at $275k 18 months ago, and still no buyers.

    The local Sunday paper had 28 foreclosures, the most I've seen so far.

    So I ask my fellow CU members, what does this bailout really mean?

    Scott
    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The bailout means that mortage rates will remain low for the forseeable future and that the housing market won't slow any more than it already is.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As a taxpayer, you now own a bunch of worthless paper on which you will now be making interest payments to a bank who should, by all rights, have gone out of business for making extremely bad business decisions while its officers were making millions in salary.

    Other than that, it's business as usual.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • 2ndCharter2ndCharter Posts: 1,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Exactly right - instead of conservatorship, they should have been placed in receivership.

    Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA

  • Sure nice that us taxpayers get to pay for all of it...AH's in Washington!image
  • storm888storm888 Posts: 11,701 ✭✭✭
    "As a taxpayer, you now own a bunch of worthless paper..."

    //////////////////////////

    MOST of the paper in NOT "worthless." It is being serviced by mortgagors
    who are able - and will remain able - to pay their monthly bill.

    Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What it means is that as taxpayers we just bought a pig in the poke and will likely see at least $1 Trillion in losses on the deal. I don't think our 401K's will make up that difference.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MOST of the paper in NOT "worthless." It is being serviced by mortgagors who are able - and will remain able - to pay their monthly bill.

    A bunch of worthless paper is still a bunch of worthless paper, regardless of what else came along for the ride.

    Storm, I'd be glad to sell you some worthless paper at face, and throw in some T-Bills at market as a "package" deal. Just let me know.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • storm888storm888 Posts: 11,701 ✭✭✭
    I have been buying discounted-paper since the 1970s.

    NEVER lost a cent.

    FRE and FNM are now at risk of being looted by their "conservators."
    The "rescuers" will sell paper to their friends - and to THOUSANDS
    of folks like me - at deep discounts.

    Performing-paper is NOT bad paper. Folks who buy it for pennies
    will make BIG money, and the taxpayers will be hurt.

    The foxes have been let into guard the chickens.

    Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
  • BlackhawkBlackhawk Posts: 3,898 ✭✭✭
    Ahhh...the "free market" system. image
    "Have a nice day!"
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MOST of the paper in NOT "worthless." It is being serviced by mortgagors who are able - and will remain able - to pay their monthly bill.

    A default rate of 9.3% on a total liability of over $1 Trillion actually IS a bunch of worthless paper, regardless of the other 90.7% that is along for the ride. And that default rate is increasing.

    The effects on the economy of these bailouts is insidious because the short-term euphoria only masks the underlying root problem of a shrinking middle class and a smaller tax base.

    The economic drag that will be created in our country by higher taxes to support an unwieldy government bureaucracy will keep the stock market from ever regaining earnings momentum, and over time - precious metals will be recognized as a safeguard of value.

    I'd consider precious metals to be a realistic option for staying even, but not really an opportunity for profit in PM trading. Remember that the trading game is played by professionals who don't intend to lose. The only way to win is not to play their own game with them.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When you're done stocking up on those Fannie and Freddie discounted loans I'd recommend some Goldman Sachs credit default swaps as a chaser. Some JPM o-t-c gold derivatives really look like a strong play at this time....I strongly recommend them.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭✭✭
    We were between a rock and a hard place. At least now the housing market - as bad as it is - will not grind to a complete halt which would just be devastating. I don't know which would have been worse. I suppose we're just putting off the inevitable, which is why we're all in PM's.
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