Poll: Big rally today (Aug 21)--are the lows in?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
Big rally today as the lead dog oil takes the pack for a move up. For the rest of 2008:
Are the lows in?
Will the lows be retested?
Is there going to be backing and filling?
Is it all blue skies and butterflies for gold and silver?
What say you? More importantly, what are you doing? Buying, selling, shorting, holding?
/edit to add: before anyone takes this too seriously, keep in mind that the last silver poll showed 75% saying lower prices are on the way. Now they might be correct, because no time frame was given. This one is for the remainder of the calendar year.
Are the lows in?
Will the lows be retested?
Is there going to be backing and filling?
Is it all blue skies and butterflies for gold and silver?
What say you? More importantly, what are you doing? Buying, selling, shorting, holding?
/edit to add: before anyone takes this too seriously, keep in mind that the last silver poll showed 75% saying lower prices are on the way. Now they might be correct, because no time frame was given. This one is for the remainder of the calendar year.
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Comments
I will not be selling under any foreseeable circumstance.
I knew it would happen.
Btw .. anyone who can correctly predict the price of PM's, would not waste their time on this Forum.
<< <i>Dude ... my Crystal Ball shee still be broken ....
Btw .. anyone who can correctly predict the price of PM's, would not waste their time on this Forum. >>
So what are you doing? Buying, selling, holding, shorting? Planning to buy or sell? Or wasting time on a forum you have no interest in?
<< <i>So, say I'm going foraging next week, what is a good price to offer for silver (spot +%)in light of the decoupling of posted spot and the real value in FRN's? >>
Depends on who you are buying from and what kind of silver you are buying. If buying from a dealer, look up the spreads on those product on the popular sites and offer somewhere in that range. If from an individual, there have been numerous threads on that subject in the coin forum about what some consider fair, and what some consider a rip. As with everything there are a lot of opinions and a range.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dude ... my Crystal Ball shee still be broken ....
Btw .. anyone who can correctly predict the price of PM's, would not waste their time on this Forum. >>
So what are you doing? Buying, selling, holding, shorting? Planning to buy or sell? Or wasting time on a forum you have no interest in? >>
I've been buying for the last 2 days ... but will hold off until I see where the PM's are heading from here .... (BTW thanks for the Teletrade tip on silver & gold ASE's & AGE's)
It is going at least to $14.
<< <i>Support was overshot in silver.
It is going at least to $14. >>
Come on now, Kitco is currently showing 13.79, a 21 cent move is meaningless unless unless one is doing short term trading of futures or options. Even on SLV, a 21 cent move is tiny when multi dollar one day moves have happened recently.
Besides that isn't the question of interest to me, the more important question, is if the lows are in, and do folks think they will they hold. Silver could bump up to even $15 then fall to $10 and the answer would be no, and the risk/reward would be on the short side.
What are you doing? Buying, selling, holding, shorting, waiting to buy, planning to sell?
was happy to see it drop and want in. they will get their fill
over the next month and then we will see that second drop
to a new low in the fall.
i do not mind paying 14-15 an ounce for a quality silver bar but i
refuse to pay 16.50-17.00 like local dealers are asking now.
i can wait! for sure. if i miss the boat i have a lot of money to put
somewhere else, maybe even more favorable (a lot of money to me
that is!).
<< <i>
<< <i>Support was overshot in silver.
It is going at least to $14. >>
Come on now, Kitco is currently showing 13.79, a 21 cent move is meaningless unless unless one is doing short term trading of futures or options. Even on SLV, a 21 cent move is tiny when multi dollar one day moves have happened recently.
Besides that isn't the question of interest to me, the more important question, is if the lows are in, and do folks think they will they hold. Silver could bump up to even $15 then fall to $10 and the answer would be no, and the risk/reward would be on the short side.
What are you doing? Buying, selling, holding, shorting, waiting to buy, planning to sell? >>
OK, let me rephrase it.
It will take a nuclear weapon to knock silver under $14 and keep it there.
The lows may be tested many times but consider $14 the low in silver.
I'm buying silver right now. In fact I picked up about 150 ozs last weekend for $2K.
I don't see it dropping below $12 this year and we may see $15 in September.
After the election I betting on $18 silver and $950 gold this winter.
<< <i>I'm buying silver right now. In fact I picked up about 150 ozs last weekend for $2K.
I don't see it dropping below $12 this year and we may see $15 in September.
After the election I betting on $18 silver and $950 gold this winter. >>
150 oz of .999 fine for 2K is pretty darn good!
<< <i>I'm buying silver right now. In fact I picked up about 150 ozs last weekend for $2K.
I don't see it dropping below $12 this year and we may see $15 in September.
After the election I betting on $18 silver and $950 gold this winter. >>
That's what I like, a person of action.
I bid on a 1/10 ounce gold today, but got sniped. A couple of weeks back, I bought a half eagle at gold $880
If and when I take a trading position on GLD or SLV, I'll post it in my blog (linked in my signature). I haven't touched either in quite a while.
it is weird to watch the markets play out each day...someday, one day the tsunami may hit, maybe not soon but it just looks more and more like a financial house of cards.
the players are playing anyway they can to make a buck, run here, run there in something for three or four hours, then out or turn around and short it for a couple more hours.
things are happening in the political/global economy and cultures that will not settle down anytime soon
tell me???....what IS there to invest in right now? besides women's match-worn Olympic beach volleyball bikinis...er uniforms?
the only thing i see that is solid is physical gold right now....
<< <i>backing and filling (seemed safest)
it is weird to watch the markets play out each day...someday, one day the tsunami may hit, maybe not soon but it just looks more and more like a financial house of cards.
the players are playing anyway they can to make a buck, run here, run there in something for three or four hours, then out or turn around and short it for a couple more hours.
things are happening in the political/global economy and cultures that will not settle down anytime soon
tell me???....what IS there to invest in right now? besides women's match-worn Olympic beach volleyball bikinis...er uniforms?
the only thing i see that is solid is physical gold right now....
Physical gold is solid, but I prefer silver as far a better long term investment. I think it will outperform gold by a fair margin, hopefully a huge margin.
Supply can't keep up with demand and the excess we had has been used up over the last decade. Both can still be mined, but silver is primarily a surface metal and the bulk of it is already gone. Besides, when it is used in industry, it is used up, as in gone. The same isn't true of gold.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Well, if you're going to dream, dream big!
i can see $26-8 silver b4 i see $1650 gold at todays prices..is that a correct assumption?
<< <i>"women's match-worn Olympic beach volleyball bikinis"
Well, if you're going to dream, dream big! >>
You guys can have the bikinis, I would rather have what's in them.
Some tid bits from GIM:
As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever.
"Between July 14 and August 15, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38 percent.
"For gold, three U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and three U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an 11-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce.
"As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by U.S. banks in the data listed on the CFTC's [Internet] site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price."
GATA urges U.S. citizens to forward Butler's report to their members of Congress and ask for an investigation of the CFTC's refusal to enforce commodity trading law in the gold and silver markets.
You can find Butler's commentary, headlined "The Smoking Gun," at GoldSeek's companion site, SilverSeek, here:
That's a lot of shorts! And for what reason?
roadrunner
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>Fractal analysis which has been calling many of these turns suggests a higher probability of still another lower low coming. But if a deal in silver or gold were plopped in front of me, I'd take it.
...
roadrunner >>
I didn't think I would ever see this day on the forum, Roadrunner writing about a high probability of lower lows on precious metals.
Maybe the Cubs are going to win this year
I tend to think that distilling too many conclusions from a chart that represents past market activity doesn't reflect what the market manipulators are likely to do next.
A psychology text might be as useful. Or even an Asimov novel, like Foundation. Psychohistory, etc...
I knew it would happen.
I just took a small short term shot at the long side in GLD. My buy range target was 72.5 vs. the current tick low for the day of 72.51 for GLD.
Quite a few folks voted for lower lows in this thread, but in a parallel "action poll" only 10% were selling or planning to sell at the higher prices at the time I posted this poll.
silver action poll thread
thank goodness.
the large premiums kept me away and i thank every dealer for that!
I use the word 'guess' intentionally. If any of us really knew we would be in and out perfectly.
Stay away; WATCH; WAIT.
My WAG :
$7+/- Ag
$640 +/- Au
///////////////////////////////
Unless you want a lottery ticket, DO NOT SHORT either SLV or GLD at today's levels.
GLD at about $80 is a tempting SHORT.
SLV at about $12.90 is a tempting SHORT.
If you are currently SHORT and will still have a GOOD profit at those targets, it is likely best to cover if either target is hit.
If the targets ONLY "break you even," it is prudent to SHORT more into the strength and hold your position.
When the charts show the trend, it's time to concede it. For those interested in fractal analysis charts see Nichols article on 321gold linked below. I haven't dove into the math behind it, but know from seeing his articles over the past 1-2 years, that he has called most or all of the major swings correctly.
David Nichols - fractal analysis
roadrunner
He sure seemed to fortell this latest leg down.
His mention of the dollar at low 80's topping may be spot on. This a.m. dollar down
from .8175 to .7912 a not too insignificant move.