The supply of great condition rarity coins is still drying up. Almost as dry as a bone! Slimmest pic
oreville
Posts: 12,154 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have reviewed the various ANA auction catalogues and from the standpoint of rare condition rarities, the pickings are the slimmest since 1977 in my opinion.
With the exception of some of the wonderful Ed Price collection dimes in which he had some absolute condition rarities, I was shocked at how slim the pickings of great condition rarities Heritage had.
Thoughts and comments?
With the exception of some of the wonderful Ed Price collection dimes in which he had some absolute condition rarities, I was shocked at how slim the pickings of great condition rarities Heritage had.
Thoughts and comments?
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this year saw some top pop sms hitting the blocks
the pr68 matty was no slouch of a coin
others will chime in too i'm sure
<< <i>I have reviewed the various ANA auction catalogues and from the standpoint of rare condition rarities, the pickings are the slimmest since 1977 in my opinion.
With the exception of some of the wonderful Ed Price collection dimes in which he had some absolute condition rarities, I was shocked at how slim the pickings of great condition rarities Heritage had.
Thoughts and comments? >>
That's like saying "Except for the two grand slams and the triple play, the baseball game was boring."
major dmpl offerings
i personally believe the supply of great condition rarities will always be available as they always have been "it's time tested"
<< <i>That's like saying "Except for the two grand slams and the triple play, the baseball game was boring." >>
That is very funny. I like that.
But the amount of condition rarities in the Ed Price collection is about 5% of the usual amount we normally see at the various ANA auctions and unless you are a dime collector, most collectors would not even call them homeruns but rather clean and solid singles but then getting stranded at first base since no one else followed Ed Price with any more singles.
Baseball is very boring with only singles and double plays.
Maybe there are too many dealers chasing too few goods, and its time for some good ol fasion consolidation to shake out some of the flippers.
Maybe there are too many big coin shows- Baltimore- come on four big shows in one year ? What's the big deal about Bmore?
And i notice that some dealers have no problem with inventory, but what they have is waaayyyy over priced.
.
The DMPL silver dollars appear to be great coins and I plan on looking at them with my ruler (to measure the depth of the mirror). While they are indeed condition rarities that dies (Yikes that is supposed to be spelled DOES) not change my original posting that the number of available condition rarities for purchase seem to be at a 30 year low.
edited for stupid spelling error
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
i meekly dropped back in some 3 years ago but in this 3 year period it's been non stop offerings of huge coins
i meekly ponder that legend not only buys but has a steady supply of serious top end offered including the "amazon" release makes note this year
of the 3 pr68 matte proof lincolns ever made....this year saw one released....huge to lincoln collectors...maybe not you though
it truly seems as this is non stop but it all depends what you are looking at or for
the note of top sms being another offered this year too was huge to sms affectionist
it does kinda surprize me that no others are popping in with some of the latest coins they watch too
i believe there just was a huge large cent/half cent release
as stated though...no disrespect just my observations
You asked:
<< <i> oreville, any thoughts on why this is the case? The conventional wisdom is that when the market is weak, the great coins are held back. Is it that sellers fear the won't get top dollar, even though colossal coins have not seemed to slump? >>
I just discovered how slim the pickings are and am tempted to say that (1) such coins are in strong hands, (2) such coins are in weak hands (3) great coins are being held back, (4) the owners of the great coins are ultra confident and emboldened to hang onto the coins waiting for higher prices, (5) the owners are scared stiff and are scared to sell right now, etc., etc.
But equally possible is the one observation that struck me as simply awesome by MrEureka:
In responding to my query a few weeks ago about the increased or decreased availability of certain coins, MrEureka honestly pm'd me back:
The bottom line is that there's nothing new, no "trend". It just coins as they come.
<< <i>Since condition is subjective and a one point difference on a top tier TPG slab can "create" a condition rarity, I don’t place much credence in the concept.
I agree, but suffice to say, the offerings (with the exception of the Price collection) are somewhat unexciting.
I did not get the impression of any disrespect. Your posts are good and on target..
I will admit that I do not follow the sms and PR's as much. But they are not available at ANA?
I was not speaking about the 2008 year in general, just the status right now.
<< <i><< Since condition is subjective and a one point difference on a top tier TPG slab can "create" a condition rarity, I don’t place much credence in the concept.
>>
I agree, but suffice to say, the offerings (with the exception of the Price collection) are somewhat unexciting. >>
I do not fully disagree with these postings either except when it involves a condition rarity you already own, once owned, want, or admire even from afar.
But the issue of the subjectivity and whether you place much credence in the concept or not is not the point of this thread.
I am only making an observation not offering my opinion whether I approve of it or not.
That would be an appropriate subject for another thread.
Then again, this may be a trivial factor. I'm just not sure.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
<< <i><< Since condition is subjective and a one point difference on a top tier TPG slab can "create" a condition rarity, I don’t place much credence in the concept.
>>
I agree, but suffice to say, the offerings (with the exception of the Price collection) are somewhat unexciting. >>
I do not fully disagree with these postings either except when it involves a condition rarity you already own, once owned, want, or admire even from afar.
But the issue of the subjectivity and whether you place much credence in the concept or not is not the point of this thread.
I am only making an observation not offering my opinion whether I approve of it or not.
That would be an appropriate subject for another thread. >>
Oreville - Fair enough. But you asked for thoughts and comments and that's what I gave you.
It seems to me that, at any given moment, there are coins for sale in all manner of quality and condition.
If your goal is to find a coin that is a great rarity based on an opinion that it is a higher grade than other similar coins, and that coin is common in lower grades, then pickings may indeed be slim. I don't know, but I certainly don't dispute your assertion.
On the other hand, there always seems to be plenty of nice coins available and I think collectors should realize that....the market marches on. Constant competition to obtain the best "condition rarity" may drive up prices of other coins.
Just some more thoughts....
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Some of the "strong hands" that have great collections aren't parting with them though, I agree. They probably ask themselves "what would I replace this coin/series/collection with??? Until they answer that question, they are not selling.
Oreville, it could also be that so many people overpaid for such coins recently that a number of them don't think they could get their $ back if they tried to sell them now. I've seen a disturbing number of five figure coins which imo are POS lately.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
While they do trade privately, the auctions and dealer sites are without::
A top set of Mercury dimes, Barber anything, Seated in MS, Bust halves in near gem, Lib nickels, Buffalo's, Walkers.
But in the last 10 years, we have seen many great collections sold, starting with Pryor, Eliasberg, Price, Pittman, Huzak, Whitney, and several more.
When the best Barber dimes and quarters show up, there will be something to talk about, as there will be with Stewart's copper.
Why not now? I agree they are in strong hands. And what to do with the proceeds, in a very unsettling market?
There will be individual rarities come up for sale, but major collections stay together for a longer time.
Box of 20
roadrunner
I don't normally compare the depth of all series from year to year, but it seems like there are some pretty nice collections that are being auctioned around the ANA this year. Are you saying you generally feel that there have been more really nice coins offered in the past at the ANA than this year? Are you talking about specific series, or the general scope of the entire market?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>I was shocked at how slim the pickings of great condition rarities Heritage had.
Thoughts and comments? >>
stay away from "grade rarities"
K S
Didn't Teletrade just have that huge green holder sale?
There wasn't anything earth shattering in that OGH TT sale.
Oreville is right slim pickings... and mostly sloppy seconds in the marketplace today.
If something does pop-up, it's gone faster then you can research it.
Bust....Barber....Seated type....mostly gem original material or dated rarities - I don't see much in this area other than maybe the Kaufman seated pieces which are out of range of 99.99% of all collectors. These are the bread and butter coins of the type coin market. The Price collection is one exception. And as I recall the gold and Morgans didn't knock my socks off either. One or two single rarities in series don't make a slam dunk sale imo. It's still a large sale so there are coins for most "everyone."
roadrunner
Give us an example of what your want list looks like.
All I know is that there are plenty of nice coins out there that I cant afford.
I try not to announce what my want list is except on a very limited basis.
Surely, a lovely $20 Liberty type I in PCGS MS-67 is on my list.
<< <i>coolest:
Surely, a lovely $20 Liberty type I in PCGS MS-67 is on my list. >>
Me too!
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Not if you compare it to many of its origin dime collections such as
Eliasberg
Lovejoy
Logan
Bareford
just to name a quick few.
Do not get me wrong, it is a wonderful collection but its strength is in its completeness of many hard to find varieties, not in condition rarities.
Believe me I would want to take a look.
The only sadness is that he never saw my 1798 small 8 dime in PCGS MS-65 from the Bareford collection in person and rightfully was not sure if his Eliasberg or my Bareford piece was the nicer of the two dimes in existence.
I would have invited him to view my dime for his personal inspection had I known he had the Eliasberg dime I remembered seeing way back in 1996.
By the way, my personal opinion is they are very close to tied. The Eliasberg is better from a technical standpoint since the Bareford has an old small scratch in the reverse while the Bareford has more luster/eye appeal. Different people like different things. NGC graded the Eliasberg MS-66 while PCGS graded the Bareford MS-65 (back in the the early 1990's.).
Not if you compare it to many of its origin dime collections such as
Eliasberg
Lovejoy
Logan
Bareford
Ed Price has the finest known (or probable finest) in 19 of the 31 early dime varieties. I don't think anyone has come close to this finest known variety percentage in any pre-1840 series. I guess it would be statistically possible to improve on this if the collection sold intact, then improved. But will that happen? All of the above collections were missing at least the 1796 JR7 and 1803 JR5 (the 1803 Price discovered). Add the rare die states and errors and Price has a collection that will probably never be improved upon in completeness and overall grade.
If I had some big time rarities I sure wouldn't sell them. I would wait for the market to get better.
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe that the price levels are just too low. Almost historically low, based on the weak dollar.
If I had some big time rarities I sure wouldn't sell them. I would wait for the market to get better. >>
Can you elaborate. Prices in USA have risen, if you live in this country it is costing big money and not many people have any right now except for the well healed. I am not talking about if one lives outside USA. So I am dumbfounded that anyone in this country might think that the prices that we are seeing are not high? >>
Well, I live outside the US. And I have experienced that the dollar has been cut in half.
Pieces that I bought 3-4 years ago at $2000 are now priced at $3000, and still I have lost 25% on them, when the exchange rate is taken into account.
I am aware that any regular US citizen will experience these prices as high compared to before, but I believe that lots of the owners of "Big time rarities" are somehow financially blessed, and have funds that they invest in different ways in a global market. In this perspective, US coins just don't have the same exchange value for alternative investments as they used to have just a few years ago.
You are correct in this.