Is anybody buying 2008 platinums at the ridiculous premium of $500 over spot?
clouisejewelers
Posts: 332 ✭✭
Platinum spot is about $1860, Mint is charging $2350 for a 1 ouncer or almost $500 over spot. Is anybody buyung?
0
Comments
<< <i>Absolutely, positively .... NOT >>
Probably. What's your point???
<< <i>
<< <i>Absolutely, positively .... NOT >>
Probably. What's your point??? >>
why buy from the mint when you could more then likely wait a few months
and buy one off ebay for slightly more then melt :-|
the coins are bullion! they have little to no premium above melt yet
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
edited to add: it is this exact type of nonsense that will turn off many
plat collectors, they will dump their almost complete sets, and cause
a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome
this turn of events soon to come.
mean that I am actually stupid. The US MINT
is free to keep all of its product for the immediate
future.
Camelot
The Mint really should have anticipated that these bullion price swings, and come up with a way to set prices accordingly. A logical thing to do would have been to price these at a fixed percentage over spot and mint small batches to demand.
It was a lot easier to collect platinums when spot was relatatively stable from $400-600.
The move in spot price over the last 18 months, from $1,200 to $2,000, has been devastating from a collector standpoint.
Here's what a four coin set of platinum proofs used to cost:
1997-1999: $1350
2000-2002: $1375
2003: $1995
2004-2005: $2495
2006: $2750
2007: $2950
2008: $4120 (at least initially, now something like $4300+)
The pricing for collectors was relatively stable from 1997 to 2002.
It jumped in 2003, and mintages dropped.
It jumped again in 2004, and mintages dropped.
The increases in 2006 and 2007 were a little more gradual, and mintages were fairly stable compared to prior year.
Then in 2008, BAM , the largest one year price increase yet, up over 40% from last year's price, another $1,300.
On top of that, with all of the negative economic news -- higher prices on everything from milk to gas, tight credit market, deflating housing market -- shelling out $4,300 for a set of platinum coins is a luxury few can afford.
The mintages will undoubtedly be low, and maybe these coins will do okay in the long run, but there is pretty much zero short term upside to these over melt.
On top of that, if platinum bullion deflates because of the bad economy and lower demand, it is unclear where the numismatic demand curve will pick up.
Put another way, let's suppose spot drops to $1,200 over the next year because of decreasing industrial demand for platinum.
While I have little doubt that the 2008 coins, which will presumably be very low mintage, will find a numismatic value higher than melt (at $1,200, melt value would be $2,200), that value will likely be somewhere between melt and issue price ($2,200-$4,300). Numismatic upside over a $4300 issue price is just too hard to hit.
Even the 2006-w coins, which have ridiculously low mintages, are available for little more than melt (about $4500 a set), with platinum at $2,000 an ounce. The numismatic demand is largely squeezed out at these levels.
To have increased demand, we need new entrants in the platinum collector market. Escalating acquisition costs have had the opposite effect-- not only do new collectors stay away, but existing collectors are priced out.
Demand for 2008 sets for the foreseeable future almost certainly isn't going to be high enough to make these profitable.
Indeed, let's imagine that 2008 is a super low mintage year, as it's likely to be.
Let's assume that the Mint stops sales and, over the next year, 2008 four coin set prices climb to $5000 on ebay.
Factor in ebay and paypal fees of about 5%, and we're down to $4,750 -- maybe $500 over the issue price.
That would place you in a marginal profit area, about 10%. That's okay if you're cash-rich and have no debt. But if you're not, it's safer, and probably wiser and more profitable, to use that $4300 to pay down debt.
If platinum continues to increase (today we're below $1900, but it's been fluctuating), there might be upside from a bullion standpoint, but it's just not the best play from an investment standpoint.
At an issue price of $4300 a set, and a shrinking collector base, I'm sad to say I see more risk than reward right now.
I've been a platinum collector since day 1. I started in 1997, and am still going.
As a collector, I'm resigned to buying a set.
As an investor -- and when you are paying this kind of money, regardless of the purity of your numismatic heart, it's an investment -- I think it's a risky venture.
High cost and too much uncertainty in terms of bullion price and collector demand.
<< <i>I have no interest at that premium. >>
same here
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
I'm not sure what motivates people to post on a series that they seem to have such strong dislike for.
Maybe jealousy for having sat on the sidelines while long term platinum collectors saw the value of their collection increase 300%.
It is pretty clear that the reason most of these coins have little premium to melt is simply because melt is so damn high.
We see the same thing with all coins, including series that fc would probably have no problem labeling "coins" instead of "bullion".
With gold at $1000 an ounce, a lot of gold coins start trading as bullion. Silver at $25 an ounce, and the common silver coins, especially low grade stuff, also starts to trade as bullion.
cause a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome this turn of events soon to come.
you welcome this predicted turn of events why exactly?
Is it because, as a collector, you hope prices might drop to the point where you can afford to pick up a few?
Or is it because you enjoy the thought of other people losing money simply out of spite?
<< <i>the coins are bullion! they have little to no premium above melt yet
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
I'm not sure what motivates people to post on a series that they seem to have such strong dislike for.
Maybe jealousy for having sat on the sidelines while long term platinum collectors saw the value of their collection increase 300%.
It is pretty clear that the reason most of these coins have little premium to melt is simply because melt is so damn high.
We see the same thing with all coins, including series that fc would probably have no problem labeling "coins" instead of "bullion".
With gold at $1000 an ounce, a lot of gold coins start trading as bullion. Silver at $25 an ounce, and the common silver coins, especially low grade stuff, also starts to trade as bullion.
cause a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome this turn of events soon to come.
you welcome this predicted turn of events why exactly?
Is it because, as a collector, you hope prices might drop to the point where you can afford to pick up a few?
Or is it because you enjoy the thought of other people losing money simply out of spite? >>
he's just bitter because all of the pictures of his liberty half eagles seem to have a washed out, dipped look to them.
I bought the quarter oz "W" unc. to complete the three-year-set. It's very pricey at $619.95...but when you sell one 2008/07 W ASE that was purchased at 29.95 it reduces the pain.
Trading said silver (est. 47,000 minted) for said platinum (est. 2,250 minted...imo) is a great trade, imo.
Ren
<< <i>
<< <i>the coins are bullion! they have little to no premium above melt yet
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
I'm not sure what motivates people to post on a series that they seem to have such strong dislike for.
Maybe jealousy for having sat on the sidelines while long term platinum collectors saw the value of their collection increase 300%.
It is pretty clear that the reason most of these coins have little premium to melt is simply because melt is so damn high.
We see the same thing with all coins, including series that fc would probably have no problem labeling "coins" instead of "bullion".
With gold at $1000 an ounce, a lot of gold coins start trading as bullion. Silver at $25 an ounce, and the common silver coins, especially low grade stuff, also starts to trade as bullion.
cause a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome this turn of events soon to come.
you welcome this predicted turn of events why exactly?
Is it because, as a collector, you hope prices might drop to the point where you can afford to pick up a few?
Or is it because you enjoy the thought of other people losing money simply out of spite? >>
he's just bitter because all of the pictures of his liberty half eagles seem to have a washed out, dipped look to them. >>
Yes, we platinum collectors are a poorly understood lot. It may be impossible to believe this, but we actually LOVE these coins, whatever you call them. We love the look. We love the designs. Most of all, we love the low mintages. We are not looking for a quick flip. We are looking to build a long-term classic collection that even at $2000/oz are mighty cheap to acquire given their rarity. We want a collection that our grandkids will look at and say "Wow. Wasn't Grandpa smart to get these?" And we're pretty sure they will, too.
So, say what you will. Our grandkids will be laughing at your grandkids.
While I'm sure that some people will be collecting coins, I'm guessing that the population of coin collectors is going to dwindle.
The argument that purists make against platinum and other moderns is that since they were not issued to circulate, they shouldn't be considered coins, and I can understand the position. There are things that draw some of us to the hobby-- wondering if my 1850 large cent ever crossed paths with Abe Lincoln..., or the thrill of discovery in receiving even a common date silver coin in change, or finding an error coin while going through rolls.
With credit cards, debit cards, store cards, etc... seems like fewer and fewer transactions require cash nowadays.
It doesn't take a great deal of imagination to figure that at some point in the not-too distant future, transactions will no longer be made using currency, but will all be done electronically.
People won't make finds in circulation any more, and coin collecting will become even more arcane than it is now... we'll be relegated to even more of a niche status, like the people who collect buttons, or stamps. Actually stamps are probably a good example, since I guess they were widely collected not so long ago, and while they still are, it seems to me that stamps have become less and less relevant as a collectible over the years.
I can certainly envision a future where coins have no relevance to generations that grow up without them, and the hobby of coin collecting dies off.
I guess I've wandered a little bit off topic here
<< <i>I always try to do what everyone else isn't doing. So, based on the replies to this thread, I might. Probably on the secondary market, if available. >>
The "if available" part of that is what makes many of us buy now--this year more than in years past.
And of course, it certainly is possible people stop using money altogether in the future, but I can't see it in my lifetime. I'll bet most people on this forum would be all over their representatives if such a thing were proposed. Talk about your threat to democracy!
Approx. melt value: $3441 or around 20% over spot! OUCH! The Mint should drop the prices (have they ever done this??).
Of course, if they stop selling the 08 W Plat. proofs, the mintages will be incredibly low (sub 1000 for the $50) and they may do extremely well regardless of bullion value. Who knows?
<< <i>With credit cards, debit cards, store cards, etc... seems like fewer and fewer transactions require cash nowadays.
It doesn't take a great deal of imagination to figure that at some point in the not-too distant future, transactions will no longer be made using currency, but will all be done electronically. >>
There will always be cash transactions, because ATMs make that easy. And the production of paper money and coins is a profitable business for Uncle Sam. Whether coin collecting will continue to be popular is anybody's guess, but as far as platinum coins, although I own a few, paying hundreds of dollars extra for some fancy Mint packaging doesn't make much sense to me.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
When a person is starving, food is a bargain at any price. Even if it's a 1 oz Plat Eagle for a $1.25 can of music.
But maybe I'll stock up on generic beans, when starving, food is food, even if it's just very basic food.
<< <i>the coins are bullion! they have little to no premium above melt yet
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
I'm not sure what motivates people to post on a series that they seem to have such strong dislike for.
Maybe jealousy for having sat on the sidelines while long term platinum collectors saw the value of their collection increase 300%.
It is pretty clear that the reason most of these coins have little premium to melt is simply because melt is so damn high.
We see the same thing with all coins, including series that fc would probably have no problem labeling "coins" instead of "bullion".
With gold at $1000 an ounce, a lot of gold coins start trading as bullion. Silver at $25 an ounce, and the common silver coins, especially low grade stuff, also starts to trade as bullion.
cause a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome this turn of events soon to come.
you welcome this predicted turn of events why exactly?
Is it because, as a collector, you hope prices might drop to the point where you can afford to pick up a few?
Or is it because you enjoy the thought of other people losing money simply out of spite? >>
Or perhaps he sees through the games the mint is playing and is trying to share is wisdom such that you and others aren't burned?
People buy Morgans for much higher premiums over melt all the time. While I don't condone the Mint's opportunistic and predatory pricing behavior, I've seen much worse in the coin industry, just on the face of it.
At least platinum will always have a safety net beneath the coin values, and that safety net is the spot price of platinum. Not so for most "numismatic" material. This elitist distinction between "coins" and "bullion coins" may well prove to have its own irony, if bullion coins become tradeable as money, while numismatic coins are relegated to the collectable market.
I knew it would happen.
Have they ever dropped the price of any gold or plat proof or Unc. coin when the base metal price has dropped as Plat. has?
Thanks!
<< <i>Over time, does anyone know what percentage over spot the Mint has priced the Plat. Proof upon initial release? >>
Here are the percentages over spot for both the 2008 PRF and UNC series. I'm pretty certain you will find these are less than for gold, and much less than for silver.
spot price = 1925
1 oz. PRF 19.5%
1/2 oz. PRF 22%
1/4 oz. PRF 26.75%
1/10 oz. PRF 40.25%
4-coin PRF 15.7%
spot price = 2070
1 oz. UNC 13.5%
1/2 oz. UNC 15.9%
1/4 oz. UNC 19.8%
1/10 oz. UNC 25.6%
4-coin UNC 12%
<< <i>But maybe I'll stock up on generic beans, when starving, food is food, even if it's just very basic food. >>
I think my brother still has his Y2K stash of canned goods gathering dust in the basement.
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
<< <i>the coins are bullion! they have little to no premium above melt yet
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
I'm not sure what motivates people to post on a series that they seem to have such strong dislike for.
-----------
i like bullion. i dislike big premiums for coins minted last week where
everyone is the same condition.
----------
Maybe jealousy for having sat on the sidelines while long term platinum collectors saw the value of their collection increase 300%.
----------
nope. everyone has done fine with coins in the last 5-10 years if
you had an ounce of common sense. everyone!
----------
It is pretty clear that the reason most of these coins have little premium to melt is simply because melt is so damn high.
------------
or maybe the market sees them as bullion perhaps? but please do
continue to ignore the obvious.
----------------
We see the same thing with all coins, including series that fc would probably have no problem labeling "coins" instead of "bullion".
With gold at $1000 an ounce, a lot of gold coins start trading as bullion. Silver at $25 an ounce, and the common silver coins, especially low grade stuff, also starts to trade as bullion.
---------------
all this recent "collectable crap" from the mint was meant as bullion.
a way to own gold/plat. only collectors are naive enough to think of them
otherwise. go ask PCGS how much they will loan you on your key
bullion "coins". Go ask! shocking huh?
--------------
cause a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome this turn of events soon to come.
you welcome this predicted turn of events why exactly?
Is it because, as a collector, you hope prices might drop to the point where you can afford to pick up a few?
Or is it because you enjoy the thought of other people losing money simply out of spite? >>
Nah, i want the market to crash so i can buy numismatic coins from
past years. Ones meant to and have circulated. Bullion is bullion. I would
rather "collect" bars then a bunch of rounds. More convienent and
the design is not as ugly as the obv of the plats.
Please continue to dream up the most inane thoughts for why others
think paying large premiums for plat rounds is smart!
collect what you like! lol. open up your wallet and do little to no critical
thinking as long as you are happy. what goes up must come down!
Personally I will have a hard enough time swallowing the premium for the gold buffalo fractional coins.
1997 set: 8.8%
1998 set: 9.7%
1999 set: 10.9%
2000 set: 12.1%
2001 set: 13.9%
2002 set: 16.4%
2003 set: 11.4%
2004 set: 8.2% (of course, you'd be crazy to sell this one for spot)
2005 set: 11.1%
2006 set: 11.5%
2007 set: 16%
Not a loser in the bunch.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>the coins are bullion! they have little to no premium above melt yet
you gladly would shell out a huge premium to buy from the crMINTap.
I'm not sure what motivates people to post on a series that they seem to have such strong dislike for.
Maybe jealousy for having sat on the sidelines while long term platinum collectors saw the value of their collection increase 300%.
It is pretty clear that the reason most of these coins have little premium to melt is simply because melt is so damn high.
We see the same thing with all coins, including series that fc would probably have no problem labeling "coins" instead of "bullion".
With gold at $1000 an ounce, a lot of gold coins start trading as bullion. Silver at $25 an ounce, and the common silver coins, especially low grade stuff, also starts to trade as bullion.
cause a downturn for every plat that has a value over melt. i for one welcome this turn of events soon to come.
you welcome this predicted turn of events why exactly?
Is it because, as a collector, you hope prices might drop to the point where you can afford to pick up a few?
Or is it because you enjoy the thought of other people losing money simply out of spite? >>
he's just bitter because all of the pictures of his liberty half eagles seem to have a washed out, dipped look to them. >>
Yes, we platinum collectors are a poorly understood lot. It may be impossible to believe this, but we actually LOVE these coins, whatever you call them. We love the look. We love the designs. Most of all, we love the low mintages. We are not looking for a quick flip. We are looking to build a long-term classic collection that even at $2000/oz are mighty cheap to acquire given their rarity. We want a collection that our grandkids will look at and say "Wow. Wasn't Grandpa smart to get these?" And we're pretty sure they will, too.
So, say what you will. Our grandkids will be laughing at your grandkids.
What he said
It's possible to pick up a nice assortment of platinum eagles without breaking the bank.
Just stick to the one-tenth ounce $10 coins and spend a few dollars for a decent magnifying glass!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
fc, what was the average price of gold when you sold off your collection? What's the pog now?
I've more than doubled my original basis in all of the platinum that I hold, which includes what I've bought just recently. Why would I be "dumping" my almost complete set?
I am planning to "dance with the one who brung ya", not just because I like the high-grade quality of Plats and the knock out designwork, but because I haven't seen a change in social, economic or monetary policy coming out of Washington D.C.
If this is truly a commodity bubble that is ready to burst, then you may be right and platinum prices could plunge, along with everything else. In that case, you can claim to be the "champion of critical thinking" and buy back your gold at lower prices. Good luck with that.
Regrettably, I don't think that is the case - I think that we've entered an era that has a higher base level cost of living, and these prices are just the beginning of the curve, and not the peak. If they stop bailing out the ones who least need to be bailed out, and start supporting the little guy who works hard and saves for the future - then I will concede that things are indeed different.
I knew it would happen.
Since I can't think of a good place to spend my discretionary money now, I will probably get the 4 coin set.
<< <i>Just to clarify, I am a plat collector who unfortunately(for me) started in 2005. I have picked up the mint issues from 2005 to 2007 and gotten a few back dates (1997-1999). I really want to continue with the 2008's as I like the design. It's just a question of picking up a few fractionals or going with the 4 coin set to match with my 2006 and 2007 4 coin sets.
Since I can't think of a good place to spend my discretionary money now, I will probably get the 4 coin set. >>
Don't give up on the missing dates. You should be able to pick up 2000-2003 at just a bit over spot. Even the '04 and '05 prices have fallen lately. But yes, definitely grab the '08s first--and while you can. Unc-W sales have already fallen off a cliff.
rather "collect" bars then a bunch of rounds. More convienent and
the design is not as ugly as the obv of the plats.
Please continue to dream up the most inane thoughts for why others
think paying large premiums for plat rounds is smart!
You say you'd rather "collect" bars, placing "collect" in quotes.
I suppose that's your small way of trying to disparage those who collect platinum coins -- coins which, protestations aside, clearly do interest you or you wouldn't post so much on them.
There really isn't much room for debate on whether platinum coins are coins. Although you use the word "bullion" as if it's a negative thing, it was the bullion value of silver and gold coins of yesteryear that gave those coins value as a medium of exchange, and it was that value that made coins preferable in the minds of many to paper money, which was only as good as bank upon which it was drawn.
Platinum coins certainly can't be classified as regular issue coins, no argument with you there. Like the silver and gold American Eagle series, many commemorative coins, patterns, proof sets, etc.-- all of which are widely collected -- although monetized by the government with a dollar value, they were never intended for circulation.
If circulation as medium of exchange is how you choose to distinguish a coin from a non-coin, I suppose you might consider hard times tokens as coins. I would disagree with that, but would certainly include those who collect hard times tokens as being within the family of numismatics. A family with many personalities, it seems, including cantakerous grumps.
So please enjoy your collections of bars, or dolls, or whatever else gives you comfort, and whatever pleasure you derive from being a platinum troll.
I'll enjoy my platinum coins, and sharing that enjoyment with the group of collectors who appreciate this interesting niche of numismatics.
from the group think is a troll. naturally.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>fc, you do seem to go out of your way to disparage Plats. Just for reference, how do you think that the Statue of Liberty ought to be depicted, if not like this?
in my personal opinion that rendering of liberty is butt ugly.
while being mostly accurate there are many different angles that
could have been chosen which might have been much more flattering
to the statue and the designers.
a front on rendering is so boring and only remarkable when drawn
by an 8th grader.
But i have taste. Your mileage may vary ;-)
But, for the record, the frontal view DOES give an accurate representation of Liberty's face. Are you saying that Liberty is butt-ugly?
I knew it would happen.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Good point on the offshoot tangential about the appearance of Liberty. She definately looks tired and grouchy. That she appears chaste should appeal to the Bible belt crowd. How about a version that is gentle, relaxed, attractive but still conveying strength - I think the Athenians had it with the tetradrachma 2,400 years ago. Isn't this the type of thing Ed Moy was promising us to deliver? >>
Ha! Yeah, no argument that up-close, the plat rendering of Liberty could use some improvement, but standing back a little, I like it just fine. I mean, until we can get Angelina Jolie or Scarlett Johansen on a coin, we're not likely to do much better--oh, except for the Brittney double eagle shown recently on this forum!
Your opinion is not what makes you a troll, it's that you seek out threads on coins that you claim to have no interest in, for the sole purpose of baiting those who do with disparaging comments.
It's one thing not to like or collect platinum coins, or to think that the Mint's premium over melt is too high right now.
It's another to suggest that these are not coins, not worthy to "collect", call them ugly, suggest that those who collect them are not capable of critical thinking, and to otherwise attempt to marginalize those who do collect them.
Those are distinguishing characteristics between having a difference of opinion and being a troll.
Anyway, I don't think anyone is collecting these based on the obverse design, it's the changing reverse designs that are compelling from a design standpoint.
When I first looked at plats several years ago, *every* year was a loser. How things change!
it goes a little bit beyond that. they could maintain an aftermarket premium of $500 over spot, but if spot keeps falling they'd still be a loser.
I think the real question is whether these will maintain an aftermarket value of at least issue price if spot doesn't go up from here.
And in reality, we need these to not just stay at issue price (in which case we are actually losing money at the rate of inflation), but to increase at a rate equal to that which we would reasonably expect to obtain from a different investment to make these worth it, at least from an investment standpoint.
Unless you place some importance on the "collecting" aspect of collecting Plats.
Why are non-bullion collectors so obsessed with the motivations of bullion collectors? Please explain.
I knew it would happen.
Which will be a very good thing for all the platinum coins collectors.....
<< <i>I would guess the answer largely depends on whether or not one believes they will maintain at least a $500 premium over spot in the aftermarket.
Unless you place some importance on the "collecting" aspect of collecting Plats.
Why are non-bullion collectors so obsessed with the motivations of bullion collectors? Please explain. >>
I don't care about them at all....
I collect these because I like them plain and simple.....
Anyone have the latest "w" mintmark mintages from Numismatic News?
If mint prices stay high, I would guess no second production run will be needed as few if any are buying.