Are MLB Catcher's arms the worst now in history?

Ichiro51fan

Just got to looking at this and found it shocking. Check out the top base-stealers so far in MLB 2008:

Ichiro - 20/21
Bourn - 19/22
Ellsbury - 18/19
Taveras - 18/19
Pierre - 17/20
Gomez - 16/19
Kinsler - 13/13

Total of top 7 guys: 121/133 = 91% (Top 4 guys are at 93%!)

I don't ever remember seeing this kind of SB success until recent years. Are the catcher's arms just a lot worse than they used to be or what? Heck, even the best base stealers of our time like Raines, Rickey, etc weren't consistantly swiping 90%+ (Raines may have approached that 1 or 2 years from my recollection). Granted, there appear to be a few catchers now who are only there for hitting and have basically no chance of throwing a runner out... the guy in Cleveland comes to mind. But hasn't that always been the case? Just curious to see what your thoughts are...

edmundfitzgerald

Arms haven't changed. Have MLB pitchers arms grown worse over the years ? Answer..no.

I don't have an explanation for it, but I remember pitchers used to throw the ball over to first base
a lot more in the 70's and 80's. I remember some pitchers throwing the ball over 5 times in a row, if not more.

and5zac

I believe that with more emphasis on offensive numbers,since they make for better headlines,most players don't spend enough time on the fundamentals of playing defense! They just worry about the hitting numbers.




Lou

TheVon

Maybe runners are also being more selective about when they choose to run and on whom?

markj111

Raines was 84.7% for his career. The numbers presented mean nothing. What is the overall SB %? What was it in past years?

jradke4

maybe...what about OF arms. back in the 70's and early to mid 80's you would see plenty of plays at the plate, third or even second base. now its just hit the cut off man or maybe they cant throw anymore.

DavidPuddy

<< <i> there appear to be a few catchers now who are only there for hitting and have basically no chance of throwing a runner out... the guy in Cleveland comes to mind >>



NAME SB CS CS%
Kelly Shoppach 1 2 .667
Victor Martinez 13 10 .435

I'd say the guys in Cleveland are doing pretty well.

Atavist

<< <i>

Total of top 7 guys: 121/133 = 91% (Top 4 guys are at 93%!)

I don't ever remember seeing this kind of SB success until recent years. Are the catcher's arms just a lot worse than they used to be or what? Heck, even the best base stealers of our time like Raines, Rickey, etc weren't consistantly swiping 90%+ >>



First, that's too small a sampling to draw any conclusions from, although I can appreciate why it may be cause for comment. Second, in the 80s, you can bet there were guys--two are mentioned above--who, grouped together at a similar interval, had just as high a percentage. In fact, although I'd have to look the exact figure up, I recall that Vince Coleman, who stole more than 100 bags as a rookie in 85, in a subsequent season wasn't caught on the basepaths until after the All-Star break (40 straight maybe?)

jay0791

Where is pudge 2 when u need him????
I think all fundamentals in major league baseball has gone downhill considerably. Guys can't bunt, can't hit a fly ball when u need it, or hit to the other side. Pitchers don't throw over to first nearly as much...nor do they have catchers doing it also......nobody tries pick off plays.

You can steal off a pitcher easier than a catcher. When a runner lstarts to lift off his right leg to move toward second....do u think pitchers try to time that movement...no way. If he can ....he can add 2 steps the runner needs to get back to first. Some of these pitchers...like some japaneese ones..take all day to make the pitch after they started their motion.

Managers don't manage...they mearly make out lineups......... exceptions......larussa can play for one run and get the guys to play "team" baseball...this might be the difference in a tight ball game.

also there are some catchers....who are in the lineup not for offensive or defensive measures...but how they handle the pitching staff..call the game. The catcher is your team leader.......anybody remember thurman munson??? jason veritec sp? is a good example.

I grew up watching Johnny Bench so I may be a little off center........but most catchers these days are either offsive or defensive.

Morgoth

Just my wild theory but HR's are going to be way down this year and we all know why. Running didn't make sense the last like 15 years or so due to the HR's being hit at such a high rate. I just think catchers and pitchers haven't had to deal with this amount of running in a long time. I bet the pitchers adjust pretty quick to holding runners on better and defensive catchers will see more playing time. This will adjust the avgs back down to pre steroid era numbers but maybe not this year. Take a team like the Padres how else can they score right now other than running?

Atavist

Hardly wild, Margoth. I was looking myopically at the original poster's 80s and the the steals early on this year (which remain too small a sample to draw any inferences from), but your point is well taken: In the 80s, steals were up relative to homers, but over the past 15 years, steals have taken a backseat to homers, just as they did in the 50s.

So your theory that an inverse relationship exists between steals and homers isn't without, um, legs.

Connecticoin

The one they got Ellsbury on was a pitchout.

Morgoth

A lot of todays catchers would have been converted to 1st and 3rd basemen if playing in the 80s. Piazza, Posada etc would not have lasted at the position as long if they had to face as much running as the 80s guys did. The catching position will become more defensive orientated in the next few years.

TomGshotput

<< <i>
I think all fundamentals in major league baseball has gone downhill considerably. >>



Stealing bases at a high percentage would show that fundamentals have improved. It means baserunners are only trying to steal when they know they have the greatest chance for success. Total number of steals is well down from the 70s and 80s. That is the fundamentally correct way to play the game

Before Aparicio and others in the 50s, there was a long stretch where the only a few players in the entire league would steal more than 20. During those years when the stolen base was used so rarely is when catchers had the worst throwing arms in history. There was no need to throw out base stealers

For a few years there was a strong emphasis on the slide step and that although some questioned if it hurt the pitchers speed. Anyone know if that is still being used much?

JackWESQ

Here are some numbers to digest.

MLB Totals

2008
852 Steals
323 Caught Stealing = 72.5% Success Rate

2007
2918 Steals
1002 Caught Stealing = 74.4% Success Rate

2006
2767 Steals
1110 Caught Stealing = 71.3% Success Rate

2005
2566 Steals
1069 Caught Stealing = 70.6% Success Rate

2004
2589 Steals
1100 Caught Stealing = 70.2% Success Rate

2003
2573 Steals
1132 Caught Stealing = 69.4% Success Rate

2002
2750 Steals
1282 Caught Stealing = 68.2% Success Rate

2001
3103 Steals
1408 Caught Stealing = 68.8% Success Rate

2000
2923 Steals
1323 Caught Stealing = 68.8% Success Rate

Of course, these are just raw numbers. I'm not sure if this accurately measures RAW ability. This year (2008) the success rate is 72.5%, which is actually lower that last year, but higher than the seven (7) previous years (2000 to 2006). Based on the 2008 numbers thus far, MLB is on pace for 3000 steals and 1138 caught stealing, which is comparable to the previous eight (8) years.

Going back ten years to ...

1998
3284 Steals
1505 Caught Stealing = 68.6% Success Rate

and another ten years to ...

1988
3301 Steals
1418 Caught Stealing = 70.0% Success Ratte

and another ten years to

1978
3004 Steals
1617 Caught Stealing = 65.0% Success Rate

/s/ JackWESQ

Mickey71

Pitchers are throwing so much harder than they used to. The batters are so much more powerful than they were 20 years ago. The pitchers concern is not holding runners close to the base but the hitter, therefore many good jumps by the base runner. The bases are being stolen off the pitcher. The catchers have tremendous arms.

Bosox1976

Good stuff Jack.

Morgoth

A 10% success rate change is huge from 1978 to now. Definately something is causing the rise from the late 70s to now.

TomGshotput

2.2 attempts per game compared to 1.6 would be the first thing to look at. That many more attempts over that many more games means teams had to have been running in a lot of situations when the chance of success was lower

digicat

One thing to look at would be bad throwers being exploited, while good throwers are not being challanged.

Compare Pudge to Piazza.

Base runners have a 53% chance to steal on Pudge.
Base runners had a 77% chance to steal on Piazza.

Piazza dealt with 1.12 stolen base attempts per game while behind the plate.
Pudge dealt with 0.59 stolen base attempts per game.

It's also worth noting that while Pudge played more games at Catcher, Piazza faced a lot more stolen base attempts. Folks knew they couldn't steal on Pudge, and didn't risk trying.

Atavist

<< <i>Just got to looking at this and found it shocking. Check out the top base-stealers so far in MLB 2008:

Ichiro - 20/21
Bourn - 19/22
Ellsbury - 18/19
Taveras - 18/19
Pierre - 17/20
Gomez - 16/19
Kinsler - 13/13

Total of top 7 guys: 121/133 = 91% (Top 4 guys are at 93%!)

>>



Three weeks later, a bigger sample size. What's the percentage now among these guys? (I don't know myself, but I can guarantee it's not 91%.)

Atavist

OK, I think it only fair that I do the research, so since the original post, here are the same players' steals and CS. Second column is the total to date. Stats from this AM's CBS Sports site.

Ichiro 6/7 26/28
Bourn 5/7 24/28
Ellsbury 10/13 28/31
Taveras 4/6 21/23
Pierre 6/10 23/30
Gomez 1/6 17/25
Kinsler 4/4 17/17

Total SB success rate to date: 85.7% (Top four originally listed now at 90%.)

The most reliable sample, of course, is the entire season.

(I continue to think that the poster who mentioned an inverse relationship between HRs and SBs is on to something, but I haven't gone through the necessary decades of data to offer something more than a mere opinion.)

bman90278

I'm not sure, but that guy who caught for Dodgers in the 90's had a bad arm, but he made up for it with an awesome bat.