<< <i>
Yes, what do you attribute to the continued higher mark-up, particulalry with the 2008 Eagles, on ebay?
Typically ebay reacts quickly to price differences, yet, here and now, the prices remain static with a $3.00 drop in the price of SLV.
It does appear some of the premiums in say 1986 Eagles has decreased in the last week, due to the rarity.
Damn, the buy it now's remain very high (many over $500 per roll!)
Miles >>
I don't know why 2008 would garner a premium since 1996 will still be the "key date".
I guess the fact that it's getting more difficult to obtain silver in quantities means ebay is the
"real" market as far as price action goes.
I'd be interested in knowing the source of that figure. >>
I took a little closer look at his work and like it even less. It's interesting and has a lot of facts and some insights but he ignores one very important thing and that is he shows no attrition whatsoever for silver. There's a lit- tle attrition for gold but it tends to be low since every little last bit is always recovered in production and use.
But silver has always had very high attrition. It was used extensively to plate silverware until the 1950's but when the plating solution was used up they'd just dump the solution in the sewer and little of the silverware still exists. Across the board it's always been the same thing; silver is just too cheap to expend much effort in its recovery.
He also ignores Egyptian production which was rather substantial for gold "skin of the Gods". Most of their silver was imported though. About the on- ly silver they had was in electrum which couldn't be separated for millinea.
The fact that all the major silver dealers are out of silver is interesting in itself. If this situation doesn't correct itself soon, it will put added strain on the US Mint silver products. The US Mint and Ebay seem to be the only games in town during this perceived shortage.
Maybe this is a trap by the silver shorts to get everyone to jump in and go back into the waters and then they will dump all their remaining silver. Odd that they involved every major silver dealer within the US.
I think this is being overanalyzed a little. I believe Bear had it right (sort of), yes many hedge funds are highly leveraged, and my understanding is that all of the commodity investors got hit with margin calls this week. They were required to put down 20% cash on commodities, when they had only been paying 10%. They sold commodities off because they couldn't sell their junk CDOs and other MBS's. They may come back into silver when they free up some other cash, but it might be a sucker bet as to when exactly that will be. They may also put it back in wheat or corn. To the point of valuing the silver market, think about coming up with 10% of that amount in a week.
A lot depends on how it is stored. A cool , dry place will keep the coin blast white for years to come. An album, folder, envelope, humidity, temperatures and the environment have as much an impact on it as does the economy.
<< <i>I think this is being overanalyzed a little. I believe Bear had it right (sort of), yes many hedge funds are highly leveraged, and my understanding is that all of the commodity investors got hit with margin calls this week. They were required to put down 20% cash on commodities, when they had only been paying 10%. They sold commodities off because they couldn't sell their junk CDOs and other MBS's. They may come back into silver when they free up some other cash, but it might be a sucker bet as to when exactly that will be. They may also put it back in wheat or corn. To the point of valuing the silver market, think about coming up with 10% of that amount in a week. >>
Could be..... But if so, just where is all of the silver that they unloaded?
1. they 'are' one of the only games in town 2. ie. they can 3. people are paying it 4. some people are panicking because they can't get it from the regular i'net silver dealers.
OK...guess you can all get ready for silver to keep on dropping...
...because I just went on a spree and bought up 56oz. of silver on fleabay...
...got the best deals I could find...quite a bit is going for $22 plus an oz...
...just figured out my cost... $20.835/oz. (shipping included)
...leveraged with the other silver I had set aside, I am now in at around $17.50/oz.
...I have a similar affliction to Russ...when he sells it goes up...when I buy it goes down...
...but who knows...maybe I'm cured...
Re: Slabbed coins - There are some coins that LIVE within clear plastic and wear their labels with pride... while there are others that HIDE behind scratched plastic and are simply dragged along by a label. Then there are those coins that simply hang out, naked and free
$22/oz on fleabay? Give me a call, I'd sell you some for $21/oz.
The selling off of paper gold what caused the gold price to drop? Both silver and gold seemed to drop in price at the same time
Bingo. The FED/PPT usually target both metals together with paper sales or at least it would surprise me if they didn't in this case. Once they get the ball rolling the market stops start selling off the rest. Additional nudges are given if the price stabilizes too early.
<< <i>$22/oz on fleabay? Give me a call, I'd sell you some for $21/oz.
The selling off of paper gold what caused the gold price to drop? Both silver and gold seemed to drop in price at the same time
Bingo. The FED/PPT usually target both metals together with paper sales or at least it would surprise me if they didn't in this case. Once they get the ball rolling the market stops start selling off the rest. Additional nudges are given if the price stabilizes too early.
roadrunner >>
Yep, they want to instill a feeling of panic in those weaker holders..... try to compel them to sell at the cheap price. Not sure if that is working very well in this case, in either silver or gold.
I have a lot of silver but they are key date silver coins and they will not be sold at silver prices...I have a couple of rolls of Silver Eagles that could be sold but the price ain't right!
How would these ETF's get this silver...it does not make sense to me...I could go and sell my coins to the local BM and they would not know it...so how are they going to get all this silver?
<< <i>Prices can adjust downward with minimal selling pressure. All you need is a motivated seller and no buyers.
Oh, I get it now......like in the housing market, right?
roadrunner >>
Indeed. The opposite happens when that one house in your neighborhood sells for 100K more than all the others. Suddenly everyone has newfound money.
To prove my point one only needs to look as a chart of any stock. There is much more volume on the upside than there is on the downside. Same is true for any asset, although stocks are easier to see since there is much more readily available data.
Why is everyone so concerned with whether or not the silver ETFs actually holds physical silver? It is a tracking stock, a trading vehicle, thats all. Just as the QQQQs track the Nasdaq, the DIA tracks the DOW30 and SPY tracks the SP500. These are designed to mirror the returns of the respective indices and they go a great job at that.
All I want is a much more efficient way to profit from the volatility of silver. SLV gives me that opportunity.
<< <i>Why is everyone so concerned with whether or not the silver ETFs actually holds physical silver? It is a tracking stock, a trading vehicle, thats all. Just as the QQQQs track the Nasdaq, the DIA tracks the DOW30 and SPY tracks the SP500. These are designed to mirror the returns of the respective indices and they go a great job at that.
All I want is a much more efficient way to profit from the volatility of silver. SLV gives me that opportunity. >>
It would fail in this function if it were short a significant amount of silver and the price went a lot higher. It works fine for short term buyers and sellers and will work well in the long term if the price doesn't advance sig- nificantly or if they are not short.
I believe they have around 180 million ounces now and they claim not to have significantly more outstanding.
That extra $100K for that one house in the neighborhood only holds water if it's a dirt ball. It the home is a cream puff and perfectly updated, maintained and presented, it's probably worth the +$100K while everyone else's is not. Same story for the killer toned MS67 commem that fetches $20K yet the next piece of swilly conserved MS67 fetches $650. Hmmm, what happened?
No one expects the ETF Dow index to contain a portion of the real companies kept in a warehouse as collateral. Yet the opposite is true of the silver ETF and the allure of it. Take away the silver and just trade paper guesses, and the fund would wither to nothing. You may as well take bets with your bookie, better chance he will pay up.
"No one expects the ETF Dow index to contain a portion of the real companies kept in a warehouse as collateral. Yet the opposite is true of the silver ETF and the allure of it. Take away the silver and just trade paper guesses, and the fund would wither to nothing. You may as well take bets with your bookie, better chance he will pay up."
Man, I put in a 'Best Offer' on, I think it was Sunday, maybe Sat, but silver was over $20. I put in an offer on a 10 oz Englehard, at $215, knowing HALF full well he is gonna laugh at it. I dont know how long the offer was good for, but on Tuesday, yep, during the beginning of the cliff dive, he hits 'accept' faster than you can say 'huh?' and boom, I have the bar (I didnt know till it showed up as an item won, and it was a few days away from the comp for me, so, at $16 and change, I own this bar for $215). Thanx to one of you guys out here, with the ebay coupons (that never seem to work for anyone but a few), I try the 'cthanks50'. It accepts it during checkout...until I get on to Paypal. It says the promo wont work with my Paypal account (been buying up silver, 90%, bars, etc, alot in the last few months, plus my normal coin activity, so the activity screen is pretty full, and some good numbers). I call Paypal, and within 24 hours, sometime tomorrow, I will be able to use that 'cthanks50' promo code...the promo is $50 off one item. SO, with the shipping and insurance (bastige had $11 for priority, plus $4.95 insurance, but it was figured into my offer, when silver was going straight up...and I am big on silver to this second), it works out to $181 and a few pennies. SO, whoever put that link to 'RetailMeNot.com', THANK you! And all it took was a phone call. If you guys have decent activity with Paypal, and the coupons dont work for you, man, put in a call....took me all of 5 minutes. Before I was done with 'how much more money do you want to make off me before I get a little luvin' from you guys', she had sent the request in, and assured me the promo would work with the item. Without that coupon going through, I woulda kinda bummed, just kinda. Squeaky wheel gets the grease every time...I know its a bit off the topic of the OP, but thought I would throw this one out there.
If they arent willing to sell at current market levels, why dont they simply increase the spread so its more profitable? Instead of denying the market any supply, why dont they list their silver at the price at which they ARE willing to sell. None of this makes sense. Who cares what the bid/ask is if the bid/ask doesnt reflect the market for the metal itself?
<< <i>If they arent willing to sell at current market levels, why dont they simply increase the spread so its more profitable? Instead of denying the market any supply, why dont they list their silver at the price at which they ARE willing to sell. None of this makes sense. Who cares what the bid/ask is if the bid/ask doesnt reflect the market for the metal itself?
Snap Dragon >>
I have difficulty believing any merchant would withhold product.
I have to believe they either don't have a reliable supply or their supply is so poor they are selling everything locally.
The spread on 90% always increases exponentially with the metals rise. It's always been that way and I suspect it always will be.
It could be different if the price rise is long term.
Many silver investors prefer to store it in coin form. However, the supply of 90% silver coins has been continually shrinking due to the past 40 years of attrition by melting.
If the price of silver rises enough to support further sustained melting of 90% coins over a significant period of time, the supply of unmelted coins will shrink to the point where it is overtaken by demand. When that happens, the bid price of 90% silver coins will likely approach the value of their silver content.
Ahhh sir... I think i dropped that second bar on the lower left. Like when i came out from the bank yesterday....Thanks for finding it for me...the 10 OZ. bar...yes that one .
Ahhh sir... I think i dropped that second bar on the lower left. Like when i came out from the bank yesterday....Thanks for finding it for me...the 10 OZ. bar...yes that one .
WoW nice pick up TOTB!!! >>
I bought all the 10's and 5's he had, thinking I need to go back for a 100 and he had 2 50's.............I may just buy the 2- 50's he had because I've never seen them before.............
There are definitely some dislocations in the market, which include, huge dumping by hedge funds because of margin calls, demand for the physical metal by retail investors, that didn't fall nearly as much as the spot market and heavy shorting.
One thing I don't understand is why many on this thread, seem to indicate that they would be willing to pay substantially higher prices for the pysical metal than spot. Now if you're making jewelery or using it industrially, it may make sense to pay a premium, but to pay a premium to asset value for an investment?, I don't get, unless it is truly limited, and silver is not, imho.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
<< <i>There are definitely some dislocations in the market, which include, huge dumping by hedge funds because of margin calls, demand for the physical metal by retail investors, that didn't fall nearly as much as the spot market and heavy shorting.
One thing I don't understand is why many on this thread, seem to indicate that they would be willing to pay substantially higher prices for the pysical metal than spot. Now if you're making jewelery or using it industrially, it may make sense to pay a premium, but to pay a premium to asset value for an investment?, I don't get, unless it is truly limited, and silver is not, imho.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
? >>
The Ted Butler website has excellent articles on the probability of much less silver being available than everyone thinks. He has been researching silver for quite a few years.
As for indications that SLV is not holding the physical metals.... you are right in that on the surface you are not going to see that. It is hidden; but when you start digging into the prospectus, and contracts with custodians, and subcustodians (not sure you can even find the contracts with the subcustodians) you start to realize all of the loopholes that are built into the system. They can play the same games as with any other funds, accounts, etc. Meaning lending, swapping, perhaps not having silver on hand over the weekends, etc., etc. When you own SLV, you do not own a right to any silver. You have a paper contract.
<< <i>There are definitely some dislocations in the market, which include, huge dumping by hedge funds because of margin calls, demand for the physical metal by retail investors, that didn't fall nearly as much as the spot market and heavy shorting.
One thing I don't understand is why many on this thread, seem to indicate that they would be willing to pay substantially higher prices for the pysical metal than spot. Now if you're making jewelery or using it industrially, it may make sense to pay a premium, but to pay a premium to asset value for an investment?, I don't get, unless it is truly limited, and silver is not, imho.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
? >>
The Ted Butler website has excellent articles on the probability of much less silver being available than everyone thinks. He has been researching silver for quite a few years.
As for indications that SLV is not holding the physical metals.... you are right in that on the surface you are not going to see that. It is hidden; but when you start digging into the prospectus, and contracts with custodians, and subcustodians (not sure you can even find the contracts with the subcustodians) you start to realize all of the loopholes that are built into the system. They can play the same games as with any other funds, accounts, etc. Meaning lending, swapping, perhaps not having silver on hand over the weekends, etc., etc. When you own SLV, you do not own a right to any silver. You have a paper contract. >>
I agree the entire picture of ownership of the actual asset is definitely less transparent and more complicated in the physical holdings of SLV vs in one's grubby little fingers, and Butler has some interesting articles and makes some valid points, but I think it still boils down to the question, from an INVESTMENT view, if a speculator thought silver was going up in price, because of scarcity or demand or any other reason barring Armageddon, would it still make more sense to try to gather and store the physical metal at a premium to it's asset value, with a less liquid selling characteristic, or buy SLV or futures contracts?
I guess I would be in the minority here and buy SLV, without hesitation.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
They've been conveniently hiding it from the public for years now. They can do it for a while longer.
It looks to me that ebay is a better source for metal prices right now than the SLV. It might take some time to sort out the big spread. Eventually, the silver futures could become totally irrelevant in tracking honest metal prices due to the out-right fraud. And with uncle raising margin requirements, they could push all the activity into the physical "take delivery" market. All the metal dealers who hold physical are not going to necessarily take a 20% hit to their inventories because the paper gold gods at SLV decide prices should be 20% lower even though supplies are tighter.
<< <i>I bought all the 10's and 5's he had, thinking I need to go back for a 100 and he had 2 50's.............I may just buy the 2- 50's he had because I've never seen them before............. >>
I sold all of my SLV shares for exactly one reason. I read the prospectus and decided that I couldn't determine with 100% certainty that I could walk away with my funds when I might need them most.
For speculation, fine. For investment, not so fine.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
They've been conveniently hiding it from the public for years now. They can do it for a while longer.
It looks to me that ebay is a better source for metal prices right now than the SLV. It might take some time to sort out the big spread. Eventually, the silver futures could become totally irrelevant in tracking honest metal prices due to the out-right fraud. And with uncle raising margin requirements, they could push all the activity into the physical "take delivery" market. All the metal dealers who hold physical are not going to necessarily take a 20% hit to their inventories because the paper gold gods at SLV decide prices should be 20% lower even though supplies are tighter.
roadrunner >>
i can see it now....eBay to ban any bullion sales in precious metals (beef, chicken and vegan stock still okay...lol)
but in the meantime with ebay you get your auction bullion in a few days, maybe a bird in hand is worth two in the bush?
this may be a totally incorrect thought but most physical PM buyers (bug holders) that I know of were waiting for this drop and NOT buying physical during the recent couple of weeks run up...or selling some physical gold and silver recently. i had more friends ask me about buying SLV two weeks than wanting to get the real metal in hand....
this may be a totally incorrect thought but most physical PM buyers (bug holders) that I know of were waiting for this drop and NOT buying physical during the recent couple of weeks run up...or selling some physical gold and silver recently.
I bought a bunch when the price was still fairly high. I put it alongside the other silver I've bought over the years. You can't always time the peaks and troughs, but you can still spot the main trend and buy when the cash is available. Works for me, and it works quite well, actually.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
A snippet from yesterday's Midas report at Lemetropole Cafe:
"Bill,
The Silver dealers are not really out of stock but are just resisting the artificial low prices.
The real price of silver is reflected at ebay.
Ten ounce Johnson Matthey bars were sold today at over $23 an ounce, while Silver's spot price is now under $17. Can the paper manipulation be more obvious?
DanC"
Somebody(s) is sure having fun playing yo-yo with the silver price...
Re: Slabbed coins - There are some coins that LIVE within clear plastic and wear their labels with pride... while there are others that HIDE behind scratched plastic and are simply dragged along by a label. Then there are those coins that simply hang out, naked and free
<<I don't think this price drop is due to profit taking.... if it was, that would mean there was a supply of silver out there from the individuals doing the selling. >>
Not nessessarily: This is not how specialists (with the market) work. The price will drop if there are more sellers than buyers at a certain price. They will drop the price until the buyers/sellers match 1 to 1. FOR EXAMPLE: There could still be NO buyers if silver dropped $2 an ounce, and still someone wants to sell. Until someone wants to buy at a said price, the price will fall. This would NOT signify there must be a supply available... just simply no one wants it from a seller until it drops to the level they would buy. Hence the existing holders LOST money on their investment:
Let's say INTEL (INTC) closes at $25 a share today. They report poor earnings after the bell, and open at $20 a share in the morning. Does this mean all the existing shareholders have a "supply" of $5 a share in their pocket???
Of course not. They lost $5 a share on ther holding(s). Net worth disappeared.
Another example: You cant sell your house at a price you offered. You lower it $50,000, and now you have a buyer. Do you get that $50,000 "supply" at closing?
This works in reverse also of course...
PS: Why would anyone pay $23 for bars on Ebay, when silver is under $17??? Someone is charging a nice commission apparently...
<< <i>"They are not out of silver.......................They are just not willing to sell it at the current market levels....."
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Correct.
They are ALL waiting for a bounce. If it does not come soon, many dealers will sell anyway. >>
Not exactly.
We seem to have a double headed monster. There actually is a bit of a scarcity and second, the wholesalers aren't willing to sell at a loss.
I can grab a nice batch tomorrow of .999 refined, but it's going to cost me in the $17.50 range. Some wholesalers are willing to sell some at a loss just to keep up the cash flow. It's good to have friends in the right places.
The real underlying issue here is that there is a real scarcity factor starting to appear. It can only get larger.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Comments
<< <i> Yes, what do you attribute to the continued higher mark-up, particulalry with the 2008 Eagles, on ebay? Typically ebay reacts quickly to price differences, yet, here and now, the prices remain static with a $3.00 drop in the price of SLV. It does appear some of the premiums in say 1986 Eagles has decreased in the last week, due to the rarity. Damn, the buy it now's remain very high (many over $500 per roll!) Miles >>
I don't know why 2008 would garner a premium since 1996 will still be the "key date". I guess the fact that it's getting more difficult to obtain silver in quantities means ebay is the "real" market as far as price action goes.
<< <i>
Link
I'd be interested in knowing the source of that figure. >>
I took a little closer look at his work and like it even less. It's interesting
and has a lot of facts and some insights but he ignores one very important
thing and that is he shows no attrition whatsoever for silver. There's a lit-
tle attrition for gold but it tends to be low since every little last bit is always
recovered in production and use.
But silver has always had very high attrition. It was used extensively to
plate silverware until the 1950's but when the plating solution was used up
they'd just dump the solution in the sewer and little of the silverware still
exists. Across the board it's always been the same thing; silver is just too
cheap to expend much effort in its recovery.
He also ignores Egyptian production which was rather substantial for gold
"skin of the Gods". Most of their silver was imported though. About the on-
ly silver they had was in electrum which couldn't be separated for millinea.
<< <i>
<< <i>Guess it's time for a few major players to call in and request their paper be redeemed for silver. That should jack the price up a bit. >>
When the major longs do decide to take delivery, all they are gonna get is paper IOUs, or fiat currency. Maybe they should settle in Euros, LOL. >>
Expiration in commodities caused the self off by those funds who did not want to take delivery and there were gobs of them. They will return!
roadrunner
A cool , dry place will keep the coin blast white for years to come.
An album, folder, envelope, humidity, temperatures and the environment have as much an impact on it as does the economy.
~the quarter hoarder~
<< <i>I think this is being overanalyzed a little. I believe Bear had it right (sort of), yes many hedge funds are highly leveraged, and my understanding is that all of the commodity investors got hit with margin calls this week. They were required to put down 20% cash on commodities, when they had only been paying 10%. They sold commodities off because they couldn't sell their junk CDOs and other MBS's. They may come back into silver when they free up some other cash, but it might be a sucker bet as to when exactly that will be. They may also put it back in wheat or corn. To the point of valuing the silver market, think about coming up with 10% of that amount in a week. >>
Could be..... But if so, just where is all of the silver that they unloaded?
1. they 'are' one of the only games in town
2. ie. they can
3. people are paying it
4. some people are panicking because they can't get it from the regular i'net silver dealers.
...because I just went on a spree and bought up 56oz. of silver on fleabay...
...got the best deals I could find...quite a bit is going for $22 plus an oz...
...just figured out my cost... $20.835/oz. (shipping included)
...leveraged with the other silver I had set aside, I am now in at around $17.50/oz.
...I have a similar affliction to Russ...when he sells it goes up...when I buy it goes down...
...but who knows...maybe I'm cured...
The selling off of paper gold what caused the gold price to drop? Both silver and gold seemed to drop in price at the same time
Bingo. The FED/PPT usually target both metals together with paper sales or at least it would surprise me if they didn't in this case. Once they get the ball rolling the market stops start selling off the rest. Additional nudges are given if the price stabilizes too early.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>$22/oz on fleabay? Give me a call, I'd sell you some for $21/oz.
The selling off of paper gold what caused the gold price to drop? Both silver and gold seemed to drop in price at the same time
Bingo. The FED/PPT usually target both metals together with paper sales or at least it would surprise me if they didn't in this case. Once they get the ball rolling the market stops start selling off the rest. Additional nudges are given if the price stabilizes too early.
roadrunner >>
Yep, they want to instill a feeling of panic in those weaker holders..... try to compel them to sell at the cheap price. Not sure if that is working very well in this case, in either silver or gold.
Oh, I get it now......like in the housing market, right?
roadrunner
<< <i>Prices can adjust downward with minimal selling pressure. All you need is a motivated seller and no buyers.
Oh, I get it now......like in the housing market, right?
roadrunner >>
Indeed. The opposite happens when that one house in your neighborhood sells for 100K more than all the others. Suddenly everyone has newfound money.
To prove my point one only needs to look as a chart of any stock. There is much more volume on the upside than there is on the downside. Same is true for any asset, although stocks are easier to see since there is much more readily available data.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
All I want is a much more efficient way to profit from the volatility of silver. SLV gives me that opportunity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Why is everyone so concerned with whether or not the silver ETFs actually holds physical silver? It is a tracking stock, a trading vehicle, thats all. Just as the QQQQs track the Nasdaq, the DIA tracks the DOW30 and SPY tracks the SP500. These are designed to mirror the returns of the respective indices and they go a great job at that.
All I want is a much more efficient way to profit from the volatility of silver. SLV gives me that opportunity. >>
It would fail in this function if it were short a significant amount of silver
and the price went a lot higher. It works fine for short term buyers and
sellers and will work well in the long term if the price doesn't advance sig-
nificantly or if they are not short.
I believe they have around 180 million ounces now and they claim not to
have significantly more outstanding.
MS67 fetches $650. Hmmm, what happened?
No one expects the ETF Dow index to contain a portion of the real companies kept in a warehouse as collateral. Yet the opposite is true of the silver ETF and the allure of it. Take away the silver and just trade paper guesses, and the fund would wither to nothing.
You may as well take bets with your bookie, better chance he will pay up.
roadrunner
You may as well take bets with your bookie, better chance he will pay up."
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
The DIA holds the 30 DOW stocks.
Barclay's SLV has exactly the amount of silver it has reported that it has.
If that ceases to be the case, the SEC will act.
ETFs are the easiest way to make money in gold and silver.
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Correct.
They are ALL waiting for a bounce. If it does not come soon, many dealers
will sell anyway.
At least the ETF has the potential to hold tons of real silver.
roadrunner
Snap Dragon
<< <i>If they arent willing to sell at current market levels, why dont they simply increase the spread so its more profitable? Instead of denying the market any supply, why dont they list their silver at the price at which they ARE willing to sell. None of this makes sense. Who cares what the bid/ask is if the bid/ask doesnt reflect the market for the metal itself?
Snap Dragon >>
I have difficulty believing any merchant would withhold product.
I have to believe they either don't have a reliable supply or their supply is so poor they are selling everything locally.
Hoard the keys.
The spread on 90% always increases exponentially with the metals rise. It's always been that way and I suspect it always will be.
It could be different if the price rise is long term.
Many silver investors prefer to store it in coin form. However, the supply of 90% silver coins has been continually shrinking due to the past 40 years of attrition by melting.
If the price of silver rises enough to support further sustained melting of 90% coins over a significant period of time, the supply of unmelted coins will shrink to the point where it is overtaken by demand. When that happens, the bid price of 90% silver coins will likely approach the value of their silver content.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Bought this yesterday.............. >>
Ahhh sir... I think i dropped that second bar on the lower left. Like when i came out from the bank yesterday....Thanks for finding it for me...the 10 OZ. bar...yes that one .
WoW nice pick up TOTB!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>Bought this yesterday.............. >>
Ahhh sir... I think i dropped that second bar on the lower left. Like when i came out from the bank yesterday....Thanks for finding it for me...the 10 OZ. bar...yes that one .
WoW nice pick up TOTB!!!
I bought all the 10's and 5's he had, thinking I need to go back for a 100 and he had 2 50's.............I may just buy the 2- 50's he had because I've never seen them before.............
One thing I don't understand is why many on this thread, seem to indicate that they would be willing to pay substantially higher prices for the pysical metal than spot. Now if you're making jewelery or using it industrially, it may make sense to pay a premium, but to pay a premium to asset value for an investment?, I don't get, unless it is truly limited, and silver is not, imho.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
?
<< <i>There are definitely some dislocations in the market, which include, huge dumping by hedge funds because of margin calls, demand for the physical metal by retail investors, that didn't fall nearly as much as the spot market and heavy shorting.
One thing I don't understand is why many on this thread, seem to indicate that they would be willing to pay substantially higher prices for the pysical metal than spot. Now if you're making jewelery or using it industrially, it may make sense to pay a premium, but to pay a premium to asset value for an investment?, I don't get, unless it is truly limited, and silver is not, imho.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
? >>
The Ted Butler website has excellent articles on the probability of much less silver being available than everyone thinks. He has been researching silver for quite a few years.
Butler
As for indications that SLV is not holding the physical metals.... you are right in that on the surface you are not going to see that. It is hidden; but when you start digging into the prospectus, and contracts with custodians, and subcustodians (not sure you can even find the contracts with the subcustodians) you start to realize all of the loopholes that are built into the system. They can play the same games as with any other funds, accounts, etc. Meaning lending, swapping, perhaps not having silver on hand over the weekends, etc., etc. When you own SLV, you do not own a right to any silver. You have a paper contract.
<< <i>
<< <i>There are definitely some dislocations in the market, which include, huge dumping by hedge funds because of margin calls, demand for the physical metal by retail investors, that didn't fall nearly as much as the spot market and heavy shorting.
One thing I don't understand is why many on this thread, seem to indicate that they would be willing to pay substantially higher prices for the pysical metal than spot. Now if you're making jewelery or using it industrially, it may make sense to pay a premium, but to pay a premium to asset value for an investment?, I don't get, unless it is truly limited, and silver is not, imho.
It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
? >>
The Ted Butler website has excellent articles on the probability of much less silver being available than everyone thinks. He has been researching silver for quite a few years.
Butler
As for indications that SLV is not holding the physical metals.... you are right in that on the surface you are not going to see that. It is hidden; but when you start digging into the prospectus, and contracts with custodians, and subcustodians (not sure you can even find the contracts with the subcustodians) you start to realize all of the loopholes that are built into the system. They can play the same games as with any other funds, accounts, etc. Meaning lending, swapping, perhaps not having silver on hand over the weekends, etc., etc. When you own SLV, you do not own a right to any silver. You have a paper contract. >>
I agree the entire picture of ownership of the actual asset is definitely less transparent and more complicated in the physical holdings of SLV vs in one's grubby little fingers, and Butler has some interesting articles and makes some valid points, but I think it still boils down to the question, from an INVESTMENT view, if a speculator thought silver was going up in price, because of scarcity or demand or any other reason barring Armageddon, would it still make more sense to try to gather and store the physical metal at a premium to it's asset value, with a less liquid selling characteristic, or buy SLV or futures contracts?
I guess I would be in the minority here and buy SLV, without hesitation.
They've been conveniently hiding it from the public for years now.
They can do it for a while longer.
It looks to me that ebay is a better source for metal prices right now than the SLV. It might take some time to sort out the big spread. Eventually, the silver futures could become totally irrelevant in tracking honest metal prices due to the out-right fraud. And with uncle raising margin requirements, they could push all the activity into the physical "take delivery" market. All the metal dealers who hold physical are not going to necessarily take a 20% hit to their inventories because the paper gold gods at SLV decide prices should be 20% lower even though supplies are tighter.
roadrunner
<< <i>I bought all the 10's and 5's he had, thinking I need to go back for a 100 and he had 2 50's.............I may just buy the 2- 50's he had because I've never seen them before............. >>
Wish i can afford another one.
For speculation, fine. For investment, not so fine.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>It's clear SLV is much more accurate and timely in tracking the spot metal than the physical metal and maybe I'm wrong, but I see no indication that SLV is not holding the physical metal, but it seems many of the silver bugs are speculating that they don't and it is just a house of cards(paper) Conspiracy therorist aside, if SLV is not holding the metal it will NOT be able to hide that fact very long, if at all.
They've been conveniently hiding it from the public for years now.
They can do it for a while longer.
It looks to me that ebay is a better source for metal prices right now than the SLV. It might take some time to sort out the big spread.
Eventually, the silver futures could become totally irrelevant in tracking honest metal prices due to the out-right fraud. And with uncle raising margin requirements, they could push all the activity into the physical "take delivery" market. All the metal dealers who hold physical are not going to necessarily take a 20% hit to their inventories because the paper gold gods at SLV decide prices should be 20% lower even though supplies are tighter.
roadrunner >>
i can see it now....eBay to ban any bullion sales in precious metals (beef, chicken and vegan stock still okay...lol)
but in the meantime with ebay you get your auction bullion in a few days, maybe a bird in hand is worth two in the bush?
this may be a totally incorrect thought but most physical PM buyers (bug holders) that I know of were waiting for this drop and NOT buying physical during the recent couple of weeks run up...or selling some physical gold and silver recently. i had more friends ask me about buying SLV two weeks than wanting to get the real metal in hand....
after hours SLV is up a tad
I bought a bunch when the price was still fairly high. I put it alongside the other silver I've bought over the years. You can't always time the peaks and troughs, but you can still spot the main trend and buy when the cash is available. Works for me, and it works quite well, actually.
I knew it would happen.
(since there's a similar thread on page one anyway)
For those who don't like these threads- sorry.
...because I just took a look at Kitco to see what happenned today...
...and that graph definately shows signs of a totally fixed/manipulated market...
Kitco
Somebody(s) is sure having fun playing yo-yo with the silver price...
Not nessessarily: This is not how specialists (with the market) work. The price will drop if there are more sellers than buyers at a certain price. They will drop the price until the buyers/sellers match 1 to 1. FOR EXAMPLE: There could still be NO buyers if silver dropped $2 an ounce, and still someone wants to sell. Until someone wants to buy at a said price, the price will fall. This would NOT signify there must be a supply available... just simply no one wants it from a seller until it drops to the level they would buy. Hence the existing holders LOST money on their investment:
Let's say INTEL (INTC) closes at $25 a share today. They report poor earnings after the bell, and open at $20 a share in the morning. Does this mean all the existing shareholders have a "supply" of $5 a share in their pocket???
Of course not. They lost $5 a share on ther holding(s). Net worth disappeared.
Another example: You cant sell your house at a price you offered. You lower it $50,000, and now you have a buyer. Do you get that $50,000 "supply" at closing?
This works in reverse also of course...
PS: Why would anyone pay $23 for bars on Ebay, when silver is under $17??? Someone is charging a nice commission apparently...
<< <i>"They are not out of silver.......................They are just not willing to sell it at the current market levels....."
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Correct.
They are ALL waiting for a bounce. If it does not come soon, many dealers
will sell anyway. >>
Not exactly.
We seem to have a double headed monster. There actually is a bit of a scarcity and second, the wholesalers aren't willing to sell at a loss.
I can grab a nice batch tomorrow of .999 refined, but it's going to cost me in the $17.50 range. Some wholesalers are willing to sell some at a loss just to keep up the cash flow. It's good to have friends in the right places.
The real underlying issue here is that there is a real scarcity factor starting to appear. It can only get larger.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
roadrunner