Have I fallen into the Jacoby Ellsbury trap?

Allen

I have been wanting to get his Bowman Chrome auto since last season and I have been waiting for the prices to cool down. I think they will soon start to climb with the season approaching. The guys on PTI have me sold on this kid so I am not sure if it is a good buy or not. So in the spirit of PTI:

Do you Buy or Sell Jacoby Ellsbury in 08 ? (How he will play and also the value of his Bowman Chrome Rookie)

scooter729

(Holding up my Ellsbury mask to my face, and using my Wilbon voice)

(Also note: I am a Red Sox season ticket holder, but trying to answer objectively.)

I'm selling! He's a rookie who had two good months for the (accent emphasized) "Sox". Lots of people have had two good months in a rookie season, then crapped the bed - ever hear of Kevin Maas or Joe Charbonneau? Those "Sox" fans are already waiting in line for their World Series tickets - let's see this kid do it for a whole season before we put his plaque up in Cooperstown. So I'm selling.

perkdog

I think Ellsbury will be starting for the Sox this year, the upside of him over Crisp is huge! With a full season under his belt I could see him hitting 20HR's and stealing 50+ bases, he wont ever put up manny/papi type #'s but will be a solid player for a very long time. I dont collect modern but I would think the best time to sell is during the season when the hype is at full tilt, there always seems to be another phenom that will pop up and take over as the guy to collect.

OnlyThe10s

I passed on it for now.

I got sucked into the Papelbon BDP-51 PSA 10 card to the tune of $80.00 back in the day, then I got sucked into the PSA 10 Dice-K RC from the team set to the tune of $70.00. Both when they first came out and were all the rave. Neither card fetches more than $15.00 these days. And those are two outstanding players.

I'm excited to see him in Center this year, and we'll see what happens. In the meantime though, I'm passing on the cards.

Oh, and GO SOX!!!!

Morgoth

Sell, unproven over a season and has (for now) a legitimate ML player as his backup, who doesn't want to be a backup. First prolonged slide and he is splitting time.

VitoCo1972

Sell - Do not buy the card

Buy - That this kid is going to be the starting CF for the Sox for 8 years. He's a great table setter, a punch and judy-type hitter. He's not going to blow you away with power numbers or a really high average, but he'll get on base enough to make things happen with his speed. He'll be a great fantasy player because he may score 100 runs and steal 40-50 bases.

I just don't think a table setting leadoff guy's rookie will hold value. He's not Jose Reyes (where charisma and playing in NYC help a lot). He's the hot property right now, but in 5 years he'll be another excellent player on a good team.

artistlost

BUY! BUY! BUY!

but just because I am selling a PSA 9 copy of the card in question.

mathew

TomGshotput

The idea of Ellsbury being a major upgrade over Crisp seems baffling. Crisp was already one of the very best defensive players and baserunners in all of baseball. Ellsbury only hit 10 homeruns in over 1 000 minor league at bats. Obviously I'll take 24-year-old who still has a good chance to improve his homerun total and K/BB ratio over the veteran coming off two subpar years. But I would bet a lot that the difference won't be very much

To answer the original questions, a mild upgrade over Crisp is definitely a very good player. As for the value of his cards, we all know that ability and talent has very little to do with baseball card values. A lot of speed, good defense, decent average, but not too much power. There have been a lot of players like that throughout history. Some of their cards have been better buys than google stock (on ebay right now):

CDsNuts

Best-case scenario, he turns into an Ichiro-like player which would be great for the Sox. However, in terms of card values, think about what Ichiro's cards would be worth if he were some normal white dude and the Japanese weren't trying to corner the market on them for the last 7 years.

Boopotts

<< <i>Best-case scenario, he turns into an Ichiro-like player which would be great for the Sox. However, in terms of card values, think about what Ichiro's cards would be worth if he were some normal white dude and the Japanese weren't trying to corner the market on them for the last 7 years. >>



As a Japanese national I find this comment to be unnecessarily infammatory and insensitive.

CDsNuts

WHy do you always have to bring your Japanese heritage up in every thread? It's getting a little old. You're Japanese, we get it.

VitoCo1972

<< <i>

<< <i>Best-case scenario, he turns into an Ichiro-like player which would be great for the Sox. However, in terms of card values, think about what Ichiro's cards would be worth if he were some normal white dude and the Japanese weren't trying to corner the market on them for the last 7 years. >>



As a Japanese national I find this comment to be unnecessarily infammatory and insensitive. >>



I have to say, I don't think Lee was being insensitive when he remarked that Japanese collectors buy a lot of Ichiro stuff. Why is this inflammatory? The guy has all of his games shown there. He was the first major position player star from Japan. It makes sense that Japanese nationals would collect him. And yes, having a lot of people collect a player or set will drastically increase the value.

perkdog

I think Lee was being very insensitive. And Boo has every right to be upset!

jrinck

Todd Van Poppel
Ben McDonald
Brien Taylor

...and the beat goes on.

alnavman

<< <i>(Holding up my Ellsbury mask to my face, and using my Wilbon voice)

(Also note: I am a Red Sox season ticket holder, but trying to answer objectively.)

I'm selling! He's a rookie who had two good months for the (accent emphasized) "Sox". Lots of people have had two good months in a rookie season, then crapped the bed - ever hear of Kevin Maas or Joe Charbonneau? Those "Sox" fans are already waiting in line for their World Series tickets - let's see this kid do it for a whole season before we put his plaque up in Cooperstown. So I'm selling. >>



only correction I would make is that Super Joe had ONE FULL GOOD SEASON, not two months.

"Super Joe" Charboneau made his debut with the Indians in 1980, splitting time between left field and designated hitter. His 23 home runs led the team and he captured the city's imagination with his hard hitting and his eccentricities. While not as wild as Dennis Rodman, his tendency to dye his hair unnatural colors, open beer bottles with his eye socket, and drink beer with a straw through his nose, and other stories that emerged about how he did his own dental work and fixed a broken nose with a pair of pliers and a few shots of Jack Daniel's whiskey, stood out in 1980. By mid-season, Charboneau was the subject of a song--"Go Joe Charboneau"--that reached #3 on the local charts.

He finished the season with 87 runs batted in and a .289 batting average while winning the American League Rookie of the Year award--all in spite of being stabbed with a ball-point pen by a crazed fan as he waited for the team bus on March 8. The pen penetrated an inch and hit a rib, but Charboneau played his first regular-season game just over a month later, on April 11. He missed the final six weeks of the season with a pelvis injury.

Charboneau injured his back in a headfirst slide in spring training the following year, and he never hit higher than .214 in the major leagues again. He was sent to the minors halfway through the 1981 season after hitting only .210--becoming the first Rookie of the Year to find himself back in the minors the following season--and only appeared in 22 games in 1982. He underwent back surgery twice but never fully recovered, and the Indians released him in 1983.

Charboneau now works as a minor-league hitting coach.

joestalin

The history of the bowman chrome market is easy to see, once a guy gets hot this stuff goes up and after that he has to hit 60 HR's a
year to go up again. Collectors want the next big thing who hasn't made it yet. You will never see numbers like that again on that
card. Wright and Howard are the obvious exceptions, but do you think he is in that class?

Worst time to buy: Feb/March
Best time to buy: Nov/Dec

Kevin

TomGshotput

Charboneau and Maas are pretty silly comparisons. Both were 25-year-old rookies -- if they were such great talents why did it take them so long to reach the Majors? Ellsbury was 23 last year. Maas and Charboneau had zero defensive value with mediocre to poor K/BB ratios. All a pitcher has to do is keep the ball low in the strikezone and they become huge busts. That is what ruined Charboneau's career as much as injuries. With Ellsbury even if he goes through a month or two hitting .220 with one homerun he can still offer a lot of value to his team

artistlost

Forget Ellsbury and invest in a Hanley Ramirez Bowman Chrome rookie. He WILL be the next big thing (if he isn't already).

mathew

TheVon

I wouldn't buy right now. I'm sure the price will drop. I'd certainly buy later though. Ellsbury will never be a huge power hitter so I can't see the card ever skyrocketing, but the fans have adopted him as a favorite already and if he continues to do well there is going to be a built-in cult following that will keep some kind of floor on the price of his rookie cards.

Also, the Native Americans will try to corner the market on his cards too. I guarantee it.

BobaFett72

"Also, the Native Americans will try to corner the market on his cards too. I guarantee it"

i agree, that crying Indian guy from the old Tv commercials is FLUSH with cash these days from Indian casinos! He came to me during a vision quest and told me that he is snapping up all the Ellsbury's he can find!

flash49

don schwall,chuck schilling,billy rohr.all great starts for sox.sell

jdip9

Ellsbury will be the white man's Ichiro. He is light years better than Crisp. I think his power numbers will follow Johnny Damon's - he'll eventually be a 15-20 HR guy, with 50 SBs every year. He may not hit HR's but he drives the ball to the gaps, he could hit 25-30 triples a year in Fenway.

All that said, I think recent history says to wait to buy the Bowman....Scooter - nice PTI impression, I lol'd reading that.