Certainly, the last 2 comments go without saying. People wouldn't give a flip about commons were it not for the registry. They are called "commons" for a reason.
Once again, perhaps dumpage of the entire collection is in order for a '52 Mantle RC in high grade (yeah, I know I'm talking about it again), or purchasing several HOF key cards in super high grade.
Ron
Ron Burgundy
Buying Vintage, all sports. Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>This is why I collect Mantle's. Mantle's have always stood the test of time in grades 1-8. Mantle's right now are selling great in a 7 grade. I want everyone to keep worrying about 1960-1969 commons graded 8 while I buy the Mantle's. If you buy centered Mantle's you can not lose. Let's face it folks, the only thing that makes a low pop common valuable in the 1960's or 70's is the fact that the registry has fierce competition. Do you really think Marshall Fogel brags at house parties about a 1971 Claude Raymond card which is very hard to get in high grade- I don't think so. Mickey71 >>
While mantle is probably the safest pick, The graded card market and high end market has not been around log enough to stand any test of time. With statements like that, i think of GE, Coca-Cola, Gold, etc. Companies or investment vehicles that have been around 100+ years. Dont get yourself in trouble by thinking that because it hasnt fallen, it wont fall.
Ron, what's sad is I remeber when PSA 9 and 10 1968's where on fire, going for record sums.
Sad part was that it was an example of collectors jumping the gun as 1968's were the easiest to find of 60's cards in gradeable condition so they were the first 9's and 10's to hit the market in some volume. Collectors went wild over these but when the pops kept going up value plummeted.
On the issue of HOF RC's I think the name players will always hold value like blue chip stocks but marginal or no name HOF's that are bringing tons due to scarcity percieved or real, I think are another bubble. Thousands of dollars for Dwight Stephenson?
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
Bigfische, Here's where I don't agree with you. I believe Mantle's will last the test of time and if they did not, then I believe that would be the end of the card business. Mantle's has always been the leader in cards. Some will say Ruth, Cobb etc., but no-Mantle. Mantle is the most widely collected vintage player in the hobby. If Mantle's were to bottom out that would spell the end to cards. Will markets go up and down-yes. Folks, like I said, keep buying all low pop 1960's while some of us buy upper tier hall of famers. Let me explain upper tier- If you pay expensive prices for Jim Bunning, Gaylord Perry, Rollie Fingers, Cepeda etc. you will lose money in the end.
<< <i>Certainly, the last 2 comments go without saying. People wouldn't give a flip about commons were it not for the registry. They are called "commons" for a reason.
Once again, perhaps dumpage of the entire collection is in order for a '52 Mantle RC in high grade (yeah, I know I'm talking about it again), or purchasing several HOF key cards in super high grade.
Ron >>
Ron - would that make you happy though or is it frustration talking? I know from reading these boards that you have a good eye for cards in general. Isn't part of the fun putting together that raw set that you know meets the quality benchmark you set? You don't need PSA to tell you that or agree with you. If that is what brings you joy despite the variable price tag, then selling everything for a few, great cards, while certainly protecting your collecting interests financially, could sap the fun out of the hobby for you altogether.
You will have to decide what means the most to you and pursue it.
On the issue of HOF RC's I think the name players will always hold value like blue chip stocks but marginal or no name HOF's that are bringing tons due to scarcity percieved or real, I think are another bubble. Thousands of dollars for Dwight Stephenson? >>
I agree, especially when you are talking MODERN HOF RCs....Because any scarcity is almost always perceived and not reality..Just too much unopened still out there..Go back to say 1948 Leaf, and it doesn't matter if it is big name or not, because the scarcity is real.
Jason
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Since its inception, the registry has artificially inflated values for high end cards because the people building those sets want to "compete" and are willing to pay to do so. Nowadays, in order to compete with the top 50s and 60s registry guys, PSA 7 no longer cuts the mustard, so you're not getting the competitive registry dollars you once were. The same thing has happened to PSA 8s in 1972-1977 and PSA 9s for everything newer. As the registry sets improve, the cards that were once considered high grade for that set are no longer desireable and therefore command less of a premium.
If you are a Mantle collector, then I'd like to ask why. Here are my blanket assumptions about Mantle collectors based on their age...
55+: You were alive, and an impressionable young person when Mantle was playing. You have memories of seeing him play, either in person or on TV. You might even remember collecting his cards straight from packs. You feel you have a strong, personal connection and attraction to him and his cards, and to buy a Mantle card is an emotional experience, even more than a financial investment. It's personal.
50-55: You probably have vague memories of seeing Mantle play, either in person or on TV. You probably collected his cards. Now, you collect his cards to relive your youthful memories, and partially for an investment.
45-50: Mantle is a distant memory from your youth, but your dad probably was a huge fan. To collect Mantle cards revisits memories of your dad. You collect Mantle as a financial investment, but also in memory of your dad.
40-45: You don't have a personal connection to Mantle from his playing days, but as a kid growing up, you could never afford a Mantle. Now, you're successful in your career and now is your time. Buying Mantle brings you back to your early days in the hobby and you know it's a good investment.
30-40: You remember Mantles always being out of your reach as a young collector, but even at this point in your life, good conditioned Mantles are probably still out of reach. Besides, you have NO personal connection to Mantle as a player, so a Mantle card is more about investment for you.
Under 30: Sure, a nice Mantle would be cool for your collection, but it's not something you think a whole heck of a lot about.
Chris, with regard to whether continuing to build raw sets would provide me with the enjoyment that it has to date, that's a fair question. I enjoy it greatly, but I also like to have a nice spread between what I pay for cards and what I think I can get out of them if I sold them. With certain aspects of the graded market concerning me, it's fair to ask whether that spread can be maintained if I continue to do what I'm doing. That and the fact that building multiple sets at once is a chore........and you know that when it ceases to be fun that's the time to switch gears.
Ron
Ron Burgundy
Buying Vintage, all sports. Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
Outstanding response by member (jrinck). His response is based on sound logic and reasoning and not blinded by the pursuit of the dollar. There is a "perfect storm" brewing in the hobby with respect to "suppy" & "demand". With respect to "supply" PSA has reported they are receiving an average of just over 100,000 card submissions EACH MONTH!! With respect to "demand" I do alot of traveling as a salesperson and I routinely visit card shops across the country. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore. They are being priced out of the hobby but more importantly their interests' are being drawn towards the exciting and ever changing world of electronics. Almost all adult card collectors today were card collectors as kids. It brings back fond memories of our childhood. Consequently with each ensuing generation there will be less and less adults around who collected cards as a kid and thus the overall demand for cards will fall with each new generation. Each year the number of collectors will decline yet the millions upon millions of accumulated encased cards will remain (and continue to increase in number)--who's going to buy them all? Most won't even be worth the price of shipping. Bottom line: when I was a kid in the late 60's baseball was everything and most of my friends and I all collected and traded baseball cards. The games in those days weren't on tv that often so cards were our only visual connection to the players. Today none of my kids nor any of their friends have any interest in sportscards--there all into video games and electronics. Plus today the games are everywhere to be seen and kids don't need to stare at a piece of cardboard to feel a connection. There's a "perfect storm" brewing out there people--it won't happen in 5 years or even 10 but I do see clouds on the horizen and rains and floods will soon follow......
"You tell 'em I'm coming...and hell's coming with me"--Wyatt Earp
<< <i>If you are a Mantle collector, then I'd like to ask why. Here are my blanket assumptions about Mantle collectors based on their age...
55+: You were alive, and an impressionable young person when Mantle was playing. You have memories of seeing him play, either in person or on TV. You might even remember collecting his cards straight from packs. You feel you have a strong, personal connection and attraction to him and his cards, and to buy a Mantle card is an emotional experience, even more than a financial investment. It's personal.
50-55: You probably have vague memories of seeing Mantle play, either in person or on TV. You probably collected his cards. Now, you collect his cards to relive your youthful memories, and partially for an investment.
45-50: Mantle is a distant memory from your youth, but your dad probably was a huge fan. To collect Mantle cards revisits memories of your dad. You collect Mantle as a financial investment, but also in memory of your dad.
40-45: You don't have a personal connection to Mantle from his playing days, but as a kid growing up, you could never afford a Mantle. Now, you're successful in your career and now is your time. Buying Mantle brings you back to your early days in the hobby and you know it's a good investment.
30-40: You remember Mantles always being out of your reach as a young collector, but even at this point in your life, good conditioned Mantles are probably still out of reach. Besides, you have NO personal connection to Mantle as a player, so a Mantle card is more about investment for you.
Under 30: Sure, a nice Mantle would be cool for your collection, but it's not something you think a whole heck of a lot about. >>
I dissagree with Jrinck, you can apply the same logic of Mantle collectors and age groups to say Ty Cobb, I dont think there are any collectors that grew up watching him play or have any connection to his playing days yet the popularity of his collectibles remains. Myself Im into 1950's era players and I was born in 1970, people that love the game of baseball and its history will always find interest in the greats of the game and if they are into the card collecting aspect of it then the interest will always be there. If you can afford the high end 8's and even 9's thats what you will buy, most of us though are on limited budgets and like myself have a desire for nice mid range cards such as PSA 7's and can afford them. Its all about affordability, as long as there are a wide range of people with different incomes there will be a market for psa 7's as any other grade.
I hope everything goes down, I'll buy more. Did anyone here on the boards see Walter johnson pitch, or Ty Cobb hit? I agree with Lee in a sense but add that 50's PSA 7's are still very strong. A vintage set in PSA 5-7 will only become more desirable as the 8's are locked up in sets, or the set just becomes too competitive to make sense for a collector. I still have 30-40 collecting years left, and assuming I am the last of a dying breed, I would say the clouds are still out to sea.
<< <i>With respect to "demand" I do alot of traveling as a salesperson and I routinely visit card shops across the country. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore. They are being priced out of the hobby but more importantly their interests' are being drawn towards the exciting and ever changing world of electronics. Almost all adult card collectors today were card collectors as kids. It brings back fond memories of our childhood. Consequently with each ensuing generation there will be less and less adults around who collected cards as a kid and thus the overall demand for cards will fall with each new generation. There's a "perfect storm" brewing out there people--it won't happen this year or the next but I see clouds on the horizen and rains and floods will soon follow...... >>
Text
Yes, less child collectors is not going to help things but, there will always be sports fans....and their will always be people with the collecting "bug"...some might even call it minor OCD. There will always be people with a desire to collect a piece of sports history. At least I am crossing my fingers of that!!! If not, I will be the first in line to buy a Chicle Nagurski for a dollar.
I try not to worry about the decline in sports cards. Though, I have to admit I think about when I walk in my local mall and see about 12 or so kids sitting at a table playing with Pokeman or whatever they are called cards. 15 or so years ago kids like this were buying sports cards. I have to admit it worries me a little bit. Not so much from a financial standpoint, but becasue sports card collecting is such a great hobby and I would hate to see it significantly drop.
Regardless, I like many have a large sum of money tied up in cards, but it is mainly money I would spend on something foolish. If you are counting on cards as your primary investment or spending money that would be used for things more important, I suggest you find something else to invest in.
I think an overlooked part of the equation is the fact that most of us are collecting multiple sets with limited wherewithal. The result of that is that if you already have, say, a PSA 8 1964 Mickey Mantle, and are working on not only '64 but 1965, 1966, and 1967 sets, you are much less likely to bid aggressively on another 1964 Mantle, even though it is very hard to argue against owning a bunch of them. It is just a mentality of the hobby against duplication, when one has so many directions they are working toward. Supposing that you had completed all your set goals - if another 1964 PSA 8 Mantle were up for bid, wouldn't you bid more for it? I would. This suggests to me that long term, there will always be a good market for high end sports cards. As for vintage commons, there is no such thing as readily available high grade examples. Got a PSA 8 population of 150? Out of several million produced? Doesn't sound too plentiful to me, and it does sound like a good long term investment. To paraphrase a thought from a long-ago president, fear is the great crippler of the future. Vintage cards in PSA 7 or better from 1973 and earlier really should be worth far more than they now sell for. One day the current situation of supposed supply/demand will be looked at as the good old days! Buy and hold!
We've been hearing this for years now. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore.
There have been many good points made on this thread. If you've been collecting for a while you've heard all the gloom and doom before. In my opinion, the comparisons to Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig etc are good ones - did we see them play? Not likely. Are they classic collectibles? Absolutely. Do you have to have seen them play to know who they are? Nope. Are they rare in good condition? Oh yeah.
Why would Mantle, Mays, Aaron be any different? Because of X Box or PS3?
If you've looked at a few of the threads where members have posted their ages, this is not a hobby made up of only people who saw the stars of the 50s and 60s play. I would guess the average age here to be 35-40. Meaning the stars pre-1970 are desirable because of 1) they are the heart of this grand old game and 2) they are still popular.
I don't see their popularity lessening - it may actually increase because they accomplished what they did before roids.
If the average age of a serious collector is say 40, why would you think the value of vintage cards is in danger?
<< <i>Lee, if they made a baseball card of you I'd buy it! >>
me too, I think we might have something here, BTW ever check out the gallery of the SGC board members?
1964 PSA 8 Mantle were up for bid, wouldn't you bid more for it? I
Sometime I will place a bid in the slightly lower than average area of a low pop, or star from a set since if I win it, I can probably flip it within a few bucks of VCP sales, or compare and sell the lesser of the same grade. Buy the card..lol
<< <i>We've been hearing this for years now. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore.
If you've looked at a few of the threads where members have posted their ages, this is not a hobby made up of only people who saw the stars of the 50s and 60s play. I would guess the average age here to be 35-40. Meaning the stars pre-1970 are desirable because of 1) they are the heart of this grand old game and 2) they are still popular.
I don't see their popularity lessening - it may actually increase because they accomplished what they did before roids.
If the average age of a serious collector is say 40, why would you think the value of vintage cards is in danger? >>
it does seem like many collectors on this board are the 35-45ish range. but haven't most been collection since they were kids or collected as kids, stopped for a while and then got back into the hobby? most kids today are not in the hobby so when they are 35-45ish range beginning to collect baseball cards would be brand new for most and not a hobby they are getting back into after a 20 break.
I think the age issue is a legitimate one. The hobby will be ok for another 30-40 years (i.e. until all of us who are now in their 30's and 40's croak), but the fact that kids are not collecting as much as they used to should be a major long-term concern.
There will always be enough demand for pre-1980 superstars, but I think that by 2040-2050 demand for just about everything else will decrease and post-1980 cards will become virtually worthless.
It's interesting to think about what will happen to the hobby by 2040-2050.
I think one thing the hobby has going for it is such a strong tradition in baseball. 100+ years of World Series play. Solid brand management (not as strong as the NFL, but baseball hasn't done anything too stupid to ruin the link with the past).
By 2050, baseball will still be one of the top sports. I hope they don't dilute the league by then or do something really dumb. Demand pre 80 could be really strong. And even demand up to 87-93 could be strong, so many kids collected cards then. Real strong emotional attachment with the game. Some of the excesses might be killed off by then (junk wax being thrown in the trash). And supply is so limited in other sports (86 fleer basketball or 80's opc hockey, its hard to see how they'll ever be worthless).
But then maybe there will be whole new sports by then (i.e. x games) or maybe one of the big 4 leagues will fold (NHL??). Then you're up a creek. It'd be like holding onto crockett cards or horse racing cards from 80 years ago.
If I had to rank the strength of the leagues, probably
1. NFL 2. MLB 3. NBA (it could change drastically in the next decade or two. Does it move to Europe? Does it go international? The decline of quality american players would be a concern) 4. NHL???
<<Did anyone here on the boards see Walter johnson pitch, or Ty Cobb hit?>>
Other than Rube and Stone, probably no one.
Heck, Stone opened T3's as a kid, tacked them to the wall, and did other nasty stuff like trim them. Then somehow they all ended up in RipbulicanInMass's hands.
With the exception of the Color PSA 5, where there are a couple of collectors assembling 5 sets, it appears everything's off, but 6s and 7s are hardest hit.
The baseball card store i go to is always filled with kids. Set collecting and most Vintage isn't big, but autos are.
Also what is popular with the more well off and serious collectors are rare rookies.
Rookies have always been popular until the common 80s killed them, but since 1993, rare rookies exist and i believe those will be the "vintage" of tomorrow.
Suggest collecting the classic vintage rookies (48 jackie, 55 koufax, 54 aaron, 34 dimaggio, 33 ruth, 63-64 rose, etc..) and rare rookies of current players to minimize depreciation, and collecting on-card autos of hofers and future hofers for hobby. At least that is my direction, and i have seen mostly appreciation.
<< <i><<Did anyone here on the boards see Walter johnson pitch, or Ty Cobb hit?>>
Other than Rube and Stone, probably no one.
Heck, Stone opened T3's as a kid, tacked them to the wall, and did other nasty stuff like trim them. Then somehow they all ended up in RipbulicanInMass's hands. >>
I see four things causing the decline in prices for PSA 7s. Excluding star cards, which will always retain their value.
#1 The never-ending cracking out of PSA 7s to seek the higher grade has (IMO) highly diluted the actual POP of the PSA 7 arena. I speak primarily of the mid 50s vintage sets. If someone cracks out a PSA 7 and sends it in raw, and it comes back as a PSA 7 again, well, the POP just went up by one, but in fact it's the same card. I think this is the prime culprit in the decline of the PSA 7 market. Yes, I'm guilty, and yes I've been successful at it, particularly when the card comes back at a higher grade. However, the main issue is that many, many PSA 7s come back as PSA 7s. I would also suspect that someone with a very nice vintage PSA 7 and is able to safely do crack outs, may turn the card over and over and over again until he/she either succeeds or accepts the fact that he has a PSA 7 and no more. I would venture to say that perhaps 20% or more of the POP report is falsely inflated by this tactic. Thus, supply and demand take over and drive down the PSA 7 price. Again, this is exclusive of the Star cards, regardless of the POP, these will continue to go up, or at least certainly not declilne in value. An example of this would be the 55T #3 Art Fowler PSA 7 card, who was as rare as hen's teeth just 4 years ago, with a POP in the low 20s, now that card has a POP (I think) close to 60). I will not be convinced that in 4 years almost 40+/- Art Fowler true raw cards have been submitted and came out as PSA 7s. While the Fowler is a common, the desire for the higher grade, which if it came back as a PSA 8, would certainly be a HUGE cha-ching moment for the owner. I'd say a leap from a $200+ card to a $1.7k++ card back in 2004.
#2 The SMR is beyond fallacy status. I do not buy the hype in the SMR rag that they do all this scouring and searching to find market value prices. It just ain't so. This is predominant in the PSA 8 level, but is now showing up in the PSA 7 arena as well. VCP does not discern between a qualifier card and a non-qualifier card, and this may contribute to the impression that someone got "x" card for cheap. While I am not enamored with SMR, it is what it is, and it is used by many, many collectors as the be all of collecting prices...this coupled with VCP's non-qualifier distinction can lower card values. To use the Art Fowler example above, SMR has had the card in a PSA 8 priced at $80 since I can remember. There is nowhere on this planet you are gonna get that card for that price unless you steal it. I paid more than 10 times that for my Fowler 8, and it was a bargain when I got it.
#3 The economy is not helping in retaining PSA 7 values. I suspect some sellers are selling because they need the money. This gets compounded by the fact that some sellers have not a clue "how" to sell their cards. While they may think it is saving them $$ by starting a listing with 99 cents, or no reserve, they should in fact be selling at a modest opening bid price that is more closely in line with what they want for the card, not roll the dice and end up with an eBay sale well below expectation.
#4 The lack of new collectors in the mix. Let's face it, it does take a committment to endure putting a set together. Many give up and sell, others just stop, or get bored by the inability to get the cards they need fast enough to satisfy the completion of their goals. It many cases, it can easily take years to put together even a modest set...unless of course you go visit Levi and just hand over a bunch of cash 'cause you hit the lotto and don't care.
If it is indeed factual that PSA 7 are selling for less...which I am not totally sure is fact for vintage football, I would place blame more on the recent economy and less on any issue in the collecting world: For many collectors, the PSA 7 is the highest grade of choice that they can afford. The average, middle-class collector who would be buying 7's is hit the hardest by the recession. Those who tend to buy 5 and below are not as likely to stop buying because they are cheaper cards to begin with. It might not be as bad to dump 25 bucks on a 5...but spending $100 on a 7 is alot harder for the middle class collector in this economic climate. For those who are able to buy vintage 8 and above, they are probably financially better off, and the recession is effecting them less. Once the economy picks up, the average middle-class collector will have more disposable income and will spend it more on 7's which will cause the prices to rise again.
Comments
Once again, perhaps dumpage of the entire collection is in order for a '52 Mantle RC in high grade (yeah, I know I'm talking about it again), or purchasing several HOF key cards in super high grade.
Ron
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>This is why I collect Mantle's. Mantle's have always stood the test of time in grades 1-8. Mantle's right now are selling great in a 7 grade. I want everyone to keep worrying about 1960-1969 commons graded 8 while I buy the Mantle's. If you buy centered Mantle's you can not lose. Let's face it folks, the only thing that makes a low pop common valuable in the 1960's or 70's is the fact that the registry has fierce competition. Do you really think Marshall Fogel brags at house parties about a 1971 Claude Raymond card which is very hard to get in high grade- I don't think so.
Mickey71
While mantle is probably the safest pick, The graded card market and high end market has not been around log enough to stand any test of time. With statements like that, i think of GE, Coca-Cola, Gold, etc. Companies or investment vehicles that have been around 100+ years. Dont get yourself in trouble by thinking that because it hasnt fallen, it wont fall.
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
Sad part was that it was an example of collectors jumping the gun as 1968's were the easiest to find of 60's cards in gradeable condition so they were the first 9's and 10's to hit the market in some volume. Collectors went wild over these but when the pops kept going up value plummeted.
On the issue of HOF RC's I think the name players will always hold value like blue chip stocks but marginal or no name HOF's that are bringing tons due to scarcity percieved or real, I think are another bubble. Thousands of dollars for Dwight Stephenson?
Here's where I don't agree with you. I believe Mantle's will last the test of time and if they did not, then I believe that would be the end of the card business. Mantle's has always been the leader in cards. Some will say Ruth, Cobb etc., but no-Mantle. Mantle is the most widely collected vintage player in the hobby. If Mantle's were to bottom out that would spell the end to cards. Will markets go up and down-yes.
<< <i>Certainly, the last 2 comments go without saying. People wouldn't give a flip about commons were it not for the registry. They are called "commons" for a reason.
Once again, perhaps dumpage of the entire collection is in order for a '52 Mantle RC in high grade (yeah, I know I'm talking about it again), or purchasing several HOF key cards in super high grade.
Ron >>
Ron - would that make you happy though or is it frustration talking? I know from reading these boards that you have a good eye for cards in general. Isn't part of the fun putting together that raw set that you know meets the quality benchmark you set? You don't need PSA to tell you that or agree with you. If that is what brings you joy despite the variable price tag, then selling everything for a few, great cards, while certainly protecting your collecting interests financially, could sap the fun out of the hobby for you altogether.
You will have to decide what means the most to you and pursue it.
- Chris
<< <i>
On the issue of HOF RC's I think the name players will always hold value like blue chip stocks but marginal or no name HOF's that are bringing tons due to scarcity percieved or real, I think are another bubble. Thousands of dollars for Dwight Stephenson? >>
I agree, especially when you are talking MODERN HOF RCs....Because any scarcity is almost always perceived and not reality..Just too much unopened still out there..Go back to say 1948 Leaf, and it doesn't matter if it is big name or not, because the scarcity is real.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
55+: You were alive, and an impressionable young person when Mantle was playing. You have memories of seeing him play, either in person or on TV. You might even remember collecting his cards straight from packs. You feel you have a strong, personal connection and attraction to him and his cards, and to buy a Mantle card is an emotional experience, even more than a financial investment. It's personal.
50-55: You probably have vague memories of seeing Mantle play, either in person or on TV. You probably collected his cards. Now, you collect his cards to relive your youthful memories, and partially for an investment.
45-50: Mantle is a distant memory from your youth, but your dad probably was a huge fan. To collect Mantle cards revisits memories of your dad. You collect Mantle as a financial investment, but also in memory of your dad.
40-45: You don't have a personal connection to Mantle from his playing days, but as a kid growing up, you could never afford a Mantle. Now, you're successful in your career and now is your time. Buying Mantle brings you back to your early days in the hobby and you know it's a good investment.
30-40: You remember Mantles always being out of your reach as a young collector, but even at this point in your life, good conditioned Mantles are probably still out of reach. Besides, you have NO personal connection to Mantle as a player, so a Mantle card is more about investment for you.
Under 30: Sure, a nice Mantle would be cool for your collection, but it's not something you think a whole heck of a lot about.
j
RIP GURU
Chris, with regard to whether continuing to build raw sets would provide me with the enjoyment that it has to date, that's a fair question. I enjoy it greatly, but I also like to have a nice spread between what I pay for cards and what I think I can get out of them if I sold them. With certain aspects of the graded market concerning me, it's fair to ask whether that spread can be maintained if I continue to do what I'm doing. That and the fact that building multiple sets at once is a chore........and you know that when it ceases to be fun that's the time to switch gears.
Ron
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
<< <i>If you are a Mantle collector, then I'd like to ask why. Here are my blanket assumptions about Mantle collectors based on their age...
55+: You were alive, and an impressionable young person when Mantle was playing. You have memories of seeing him play, either in person or on TV. You might even remember collecting his cards straight from packs. You feel you have a strong, personal connection and attraction to him and his cards, and to buy a Mantle card is an emotional experience, even more than a financial investment. It's personal.
50-55: You probably have vague memories of seeing Mantle play, either in person or on TV. You probably collected his cards. Now, you collect his cards to relive your youthful memories, and partially for an investment.
45-50: Mantle is a distant memory from your youth, but your dad probably was a huge fan. To collect Mantle cards revisits memories of your dad. You collect Mantle as a financial investment, but also in memory of your dad.
40-45: You don't have a personal connection to Mantle from his playing days, but as a kid growing up, you could never afford a Mantle. Now, you're successful in your career and now is your time. Buying Mantle brings you back to your early days in the hobby and you know it's a good investment.
30-40: You remember Mantles always being out of your reach as a young collector, but even at this point in your life, good conditioned Mantles are probably still out of reach. Besides, you have NO personal connection to Mantle as a player, so a Mantle card is more about investment for you.
Under 30: Sure, a nice Mantle would be cool for your collection, but it's not something you think a whole heck of a lot about. >>
I dissagree with Jrinck, you can apply the same logic of Mantle collectors and age groups to say Ty Cobb, I dont think there are any collectors that grew up watching him play or have any connection to his playing days yet the popularity of his collectibles remains. Myself Im into 1950's era players and I was born in 1970, people that love the game of baseball and its history will always find interest in the greats of the game and if they are into the card collecting aspect of it then the interest will always be there. If you can afford the high end 8's and even 9's thats what you will buy, most of us though are on limited budgets and like myself have a desire for nice mid range cards such as PSA 7's and can afford them. Its all about affordability, as long as there are a wide range of people with different incomes there will be a market for psa 7's as any other grade.
<< <i>With respect to "demand" I do alot of traveling as a salesperson and I routinely visit card shops across the country. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore. They are being priced out of the hobby but more importantly their interests' are being drawn towards the exciting and ever changing world of electronics. Almost all adult card collectors today were card collectors as kids. It brings back fond memories of our childhood. Consequently with each ensuing generation there will be less and less adults around who collected cards as a kid and thus the overall demand for cards will fall with each new generation. There's a "perfect storm" brewing out there people--it won't happen this year or the next but I see clouds on the horizen and rains and floods will soon follow...... >>
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Yes, less child collectors is not going to help things but, there will always be sports fans....and their will always be people with the collecting "bug"...some might even call it minor OCD. There will always be people with a desire to collect a piece of sports history. At least I am crossing my fingers of that!!! If not, I will be the first in line to buy a Chicle Nagurski for a dollar.
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Regardless, I like many have a large sum of money tied up in cards, but it is mainly money I would spend on something foolish. If you are counting on cards as your primary investment or spending money that would be used for things more important, I suggest you find something else to invest in.
Supposing that you had completed all your set goals - if another 1964 PSA 8 Mantle were up for bid, wouldn't you bid more for it? I would. This suggests to me that long term, there will always be a good market for high end sports cards.
As for vintage commons, there is no such thing as readily available high grade examples. Got a PSA 8 population of 150? Out of several million produced? Doesn't sound too plentiful to me, and it does sound like a good long term investment.
To paraphrase a thought from a long-ago president, fear is the great crippler of the future. Vintage cards in PSA 7 or better from 1973 and earlier really should be worth far more than they now sell for. One day the current situation of supposed supply/demand will be looked at as the good old days! Buy and hold!
We've been hearing this for years now. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore.
There have been many good points made on this thread. If you've been collecting for a while you've heard all the gloom and doom before. In my opinion, the comparisons to Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig etc are good ones - did we see them play? Not likely. Are they classic collectibles? Absolutely. Do you have to have seen them play to know who they are? Nope. Are they rare in good condition? Oh yeah.
Why would Mantle, Mays, Aaron be any different? Because of X Box or PS3?
If you've looked at a few of the threads where members have posted their ages, this is not a hobby made up of only people who saw the stars of the 50s and 60s play. I would guess the average age here to be 35-40. Meaning the stars pre-1970 are desirable because of 1) they are the heart of this grand old game and 2) they are still popular.
I don't see their popularity lessening - it may actually increase because they accomplished what they did before roids.
If the average age of a serious collector is say 40, why would you think the value of vintage cards is in danger?
"Molon Labe"
"Molon Labe"
<< <i>Lee, if they made a baseball card of you I'd buy it! >>
me too, I think we might have something here, BTW ever check out the gallery of the SGC board members?
1964 PSA 8 Mantle were up for bid, wouldn't you bid more for it? I
Sometime I will place a bid in the slightly lower than average area of a low pop, or star from a set since if I win it, I can probably flip it within a few bucks of VCP sales, or compare and sell the lesser of the same grade. Buy the card..lol
"Molon Labe"
<< <i>We've been hearing this for years now. The owners all say the same in that the kids just aren't coming in anymore.
If you've looked at a few of the threads where members have posted their ages, this is not a hobby made up of only people who saw the stars of the 50s and 60s play. I would guess the average age here to be 35-40. Meaning the stars pre-1970 are desirable because of 1) they are the heart of this grand old game and 2) they are still popular.
I don't see their popularity lessening - it may actually increase because they accomplished what they did before roids.
If the average age of a serious collector is say 40, why would you think the value of vintage cards is in danger? >>
it does seem like many collectors on this board are the 35-45ish range. but haven't most been collection since they were kids or collected as kids, stopped for a while and then got back into the hobby? most kids today are not in the hobby so when they are 35-45ish range beginning to collect baseball cards would be brand new for most and not a hobby they are getting back into after a 20 break.
There will always be enough demand for pre-1980 superstars, but I think that by 2040-2050 demand for just about everything else will decrease and post-1980 cards will become virtually worthless.
I think one thing the hobby has going for it is such a strong tradition in baseball. 100+ years of World Series play. Solid brand management (not as strong as the NFL, but baseball hasn't done anything too stupid to ruin the link with the past).
By 2050, baseball will still be one of the top sports. I hope they don't dilute the league by then or do something really dumb. Demand pre 80 could be really strong. And even demand up to 87-93 could be strong, so many kids collected cards then. Real strong emotional attachment with the game. Some of the excesses might be killed off by then (junk wax being thrown in the trash). And supply is so limited in other sports (86 fleer basketball or 80's opc hockey, its hard to see how they'll ever be worthless).
But then maybe there will be whole new sports by then (i.e. x games) or maybe one of the big 4 leagues will fold (NHL??). Then you're up a creek. It'd be like holding onto crockett cards or horse racing cards from 80 years ago.
If I had to rank the strength of the leagues, probably
1. NFL
2. MLB
3. NBA (it could change drastically in the next decade or two. Does it move to Europe? Does it go international? The decline of quality american players would be a concern)
4. NHL???
Other than Rube and Stone, probably no one.
Heck, Stone opened T3's as a kid, tacked them to the wall, and did other nasty stuff like trim them. Then somehow they all ended up in RipbulicanInMass's hands.
PSA 4: -11%
PSA 5: +8% (?)
PSA 6: -11.5%
PSA 7: -7%
PSA 8: -1%
Black & White:
PSA 4: -1%
PSA 5: -2%
PSA 6: -7%
PSA 7 : -9%
PSA 8: -5.5%
With the exception of the Color PSA 5, where there are a couple of collectors assembling 5 sets, it appears everything's off, but 6s and 7s are hardest hit.
Set collecting and most Vintage isn't big, but autos are.
Also what is popular with the more well off and serious collectors are
rare rookies.
Rookies have always been popular until the common 80s killed them, but since 1993, rare rookies exist and i believe those will be the "vintage" of tomorrow.
Suggest collecting the classic vintage rookies (48 jackie, 55 koufax, 54 aaron, 34 dimaggio, 33 ruth, 63-64 rose, etc..) and rare rookies of current players to minimize depreciation, and collecting on-card autos of hofers and future hofers for hobby. At least that is my direction, and i have seen mostly appreciation.
<< <i><<Did anyone here on the boards see Walter johnson pitch, or Ty Cobb hit?>>
Other than Rube and Stone, probably no one.
Heck, Stone opened T3's as a kid, tacked them to the wall, and did other nasty stuff like trim them. Then somehow they all ended up in RipbulicanInMass's hands. >>
yes, I Stone's great great great....love child
I see four things causing the decline in prices for PSA 7s. Excluding star cards, which will always retain their value.
#1 The never-ending cracking out of PSA 7s to seek the higher grade has (IMO) highly diluted the actual POP of the PSA 7 arena. I speak primarily of the mid 50s vintage sets. If someone cracks out a PSA 7 and sends it in raw, and it comes back as a PSA 7 again, well, the POP just went up by one, but in fact it's the same card. I think this is the prime culprit in the decline of the PSA 7 market. Yes, I'm guilty, and yes I've been successful at it, particularly when the card comes back at a higher grade. However, the main issue is that many, many PSA 7s come back as PSA 7s. I would also suspect that someone with a very nice vintage PSA 7 and is able to safely do crack outs, may turn the card over and over and over again until he/she either succeeds or accepts the fact that he has a PSA 7 and no more. I would venture to say that perhaps 20% or more of the POP report is falsely inflated by this tactic. Thus, supply and demand take over and drive down the PSA 7 price. Again, this is exclusive of the Star cards, regardless of the POP, these will continue to go up, or at least certainly not declilne in value. An example of this would be the 55T #3 Art Fowler PSA 7 card, who was as rare as hen's teeth just 4 years ago, with a POP in the low 20s, now that card has a POP (I think) close to 60). I will not be convinced that in 4 years almost 40+/- Art Fowler true raw cards have been submitted and came out as PSA 7s. While the Fowler is a common, the desire for the higher grade, which if it came back as a PSA 8, would certainly be a HUGE cha-ching moment for the owner. I'd say a leap from a $200+ card to a $1.7k++ card back in 2004.
#2 The SMR is beyond fallacy status. I do not buy the hype in the SMR rag that they do all this scouring and searching to find market value prices. It just ain't so. This is predominant in the PSA 8 level, but is now showing up in the PSA 7 arena as well. VCP does not discern between a qualifier card and a non-qualifier card, and this may contribute to the impression that someone got "x" card for cheap. While I am not enamored with SMR, it is what it is, and it is used by many, many collectors as the be all of collecting prices...this coupled with VCP's non-qualifier distinction can lower card values. To use the Art Fowler example above, SMR has had the card in a PSA 8 priced at $80 since I can remember. There is nowhere on this planet you are gonna get that card for that price unless you steal it. I paid more than 10 times that for my Fowler 8, and it was a bargain when I got it.
#3 The economy is not helping in retaining PSA 7 values. I suspect some sellers are selling because they need the money. This gets compounded by the fact that some sellers have not a clue "how" to sell their cards. While they may think it is saving them $$ by starting a listing with 99 cents, or no reserve, they should in fact be selling at a modest opening bid price that is more closely in line with what they want for the card, not roll the dice and end up with an eBay sale well below expectation.
#4 The lack of new collectors in the mix. Let's face it, it does take a committment to endure putting a set together. Many give up and sell, others just stop, or get bored by the inability to get the cards they need fast enough to satisfy the completion of their goals. It many cases, it can easily take years to put together even a modest set...unless of course you go visit Levi and just hand over a bunch of cash 'cause you hit the lotto and don't care.
Al
Just a theory.
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