The declining value of vintage PSA 7's.

RonBurgundy

The last year or so, I've noticed that the value of vintage PSA 7's - particularly commons - have been on a downward spiral. And in the last few weeks I've noticed just how bad the decline has become. I've been taking inventory of my collection and entering all of my graded stuff on VCP, and it's shocking how low some of the prices are for PSA 7 commons. In many cases the prices are so low that they don't exceed the grading fee + the Beckett cost of the card. For example, PSA 7 prices on mid series '57 commons - the rare series - are below $20 for a card that is listed in SMR for $35 (and Beckett price is $20 in NM condition).

I don't get it. PSA 7's are generally very nice cards - after all, near mint was the accepted standard for high grade for a long time - but it seems as though collectors are kicking them to the curb in the never ending quest for super high grade cards. And I'm sure that the new half point system will only drive their prices down further.




Ron

perkdog

I dont collect commons as I dont put together sets but 95% of my Vintage collection is PSA 7, hopefully the HOF and Star players will hold their value, I dont think enough .5 grades are in the market yet to see the effect it will have on straight 7's.

11235813

I think it simply has to do with the laws of supply and demand.

The supply of 7's is plentiful.

Demand for 7's is dropping because the hobby is increasingly being permeated by investors who do not see any potential profit in 7's. Both registry collectors and investors are primarily interested in 8's and 9's.

Therefore prices for 7's are dropping.

With specific regards to the commons, that may be a sign of a decreasing number of set collectors, since there is little demand for them outside of people who collect team and/or complete sets.

Matt

DataDriven05

Agreed... There are plenty of 8's for the taking.

RB - PSA 7's are nice cards, however, there are a lot of 'collectors' that aren't soley concerned with nice. They want to know their cards have value, or maybe they want the best they can afford, and if 8's are plentiful enough, they can now afford them. You are I may not agree with that mentality, but it surely exists. As long as the population keeps rising, even if it's somewhat skewed, the value will drop unless the demand keeps up with it.

As for the stars and HOF'ers, they will hold their values the best - we'll see what the half grades bring. Commons are always a risky proposition, but if you collect them, and thus build graded sets, your concern has to be less with what the long term value of them is going to be and just happy you have set to be proud of.

stown

Hasn't been the case with '55 TAAs, that's for sure.

DataDriven05

<< <i>Hasn't been the case with '55 TAAs, that's for sure. >>



Much less vintage football out there... There are almost 2x more 1957 Topps PSA 8's (approx 40,000) than total graded for the 55AA set (20,221). I would think there are more baseball collectors overall to soak up some of the difference, but as football continues to gain popularity, and without nearly the amount of prewar sets that baseball has, it will probably be strong for some time to come.

julen23

Soloman Grundy,

Insightful & probably expected w/ all changes that have occured w/ grading scale.

I have seen this certainly evident in: 73, 74 & 75 mini's prices.

This works wonders for me, as a raw set collector, I can buy psa 7's at discount prices, w/ no intention of resubmitting. A year ago this luxury wouldn't of been possible.

Thanks PSA

j

bobsbbcards

Hopefully someone will sell me complete sets of '48 through '51 Bowman in PSA 7. Anyone? Hello?

carew4me

"collectors" now pursue 7 and below

"investors" now pursue 8 and up


you just have to decide what you are

knucklehead

I have Topps baseball wax packs 1988-1991 , also Donruss 1988 and 1990 and Fleer 1990. Are any of these of interest. My email address is berniethedog@optonline.net. I am new to the PSA message boards. My ebay name is sercretservgy. Thanks Ronnie

JasP24

<< <i>"collectors" now pursue 7 and below

"investors" now pursue 8 and up


you just have to decide what you are >>



Can't we be both to a certain degree? I know I am...I collect because I love the hobby and enjoy it. But ensuring that the money I spend will not be in waste is also important to me, because I spend quite a bit and I am not rich that I can throw money away on cardboard.

If my hobby were golfing, I would not only want to learn to play as best I can, but would also want to have the best set of clubs that I can afford. If 10 years later, I was still a terrible golfer, I would feel that money spent on clubs and greens fees would be wasted money. Even though I enjoyed it along the way, I would feel there was no payoff in the end. I would want someway to measure my success. Same with cards. I want to know that what I collect/own is valued not only by me, but the hobby in general. It isn't the ONLY reason I collect, but value does play a part.

Just my collecting opinion of course,
Jason

RonBurgundy

Good comments, Jason.

Actually, I've also noticed nosediving prices on certain PSA 8's as well, particularly easier to find commons which can be had for less than half of SMR from the late 50's issues on up. Almost seems like if it ain't low pop, or a star, fuhgeddabout getting anything close to retail for it.



Ron

VitoCo1972

<< <i>"collectors" now pursue 7 and below

"investors" now pursue 8 and up


you just have to decide what you are >>



I think real "investors" on product that's pre-1970 are really only worried about 9's and 10's. It's been discussed ad nauseam on this board, but there is definitely high grade raw vintage left out there. If I were an investor, I wouldn't want to invest in a market where the demand is only ever going to see modest increase but the supply is guaranteed to increase. That's why the modern low-pop common thing is ridiculous, but the same can be said to a far smaller extent about "undiscovered" raw vintage. There are houses and houses out there with attics of cards from the 50's/60's. It's crazy to think otherwise. So for anyone to invest in an 8 with a pop of 100 or so from 1959, it should be done with the understanding that 10 years from now there will probably be 150 8's. That's why I believe investors can only worry about super high grade. If a card in a PSA 9 is pop 30, you have to think there won't be 100 9's in 10 years. Thus, that would be a decent "investment."

poppie

Welcome knucklehead. perfect name for you !!

Stone193

<< <i>I have Topps baseball wax packs 1988-1991 , also Donruss 1988 and 1990 and Fleer 1990. Are any of these of interest. My email address is berniethedog@optonline.net. I am new to the PSA message boards. My ebay name is sercretservgy. Thanks Ronnie >>

Stone193

<< <i>The last year or so, I've noticed that the value of vintage PSA 7's - particularly commons - have been on a downward spiral. And in the last few weeks I've noticed just how bad the decline has become. I've been taking inventory of my collection and entering all of my graded stuff on VCP, and it's shocking how low some of the prices are for PSA 7 commons. In many cases the prices are so low that they don't exceed the grading fee + the Beckett cost of the card. For example, PSA 7 prices on mid series '57 commons - the rare series - are below $20 for a card that is listed in SMR for $35 (and Beckett price is $20 in NM condition).

I don't get it. PSA 7's are generally very nice cards - after all, near mint was the accepted standard for high grade for a long time - but it seems as though collectors are kicking them to the curb in the never ending quest for super high grade cards. And I'm sure that the new half point system will only drive their prices down further.




Ron >>

Ron

Have you checked sets acrossed the board or just a few?

If this is a fact - it might be a reflection of the times - some say for all practical common reasoning, we're in a recession - are many dumping their cards? Has the supply of 7's increased on ebay?

This may be a good time to work on sets.

Give it time - the economy will get better and so will the prices.

And - maybe not?

Either way - the entertainment value of having a hobby far outweighs a little loss on the value of one's collection IMO.

I'ld still rather spend a bit on this than do what I used to with the money when I was young - blow it in bars! Talk about ROI?

mike

smtjoy

I would have to agree with some of the comments that there is an abundance of card from certain years and that has pushed the effective price down on easy to get cards. I think this hurts common cards a lot more than the superstars, as mentioned above the only person who really collects commons are set and team collectors. I think the mass submission of companies like 4SC is having an effect, not only do they sell off tons of psa 9, 8 and 7 but tons of NM raw cards, this has to have an effect on the market.

I collect Clemente cards and there has been a general downward movement on most of his topps cards (excluding his first couple years). Looking at vcp his topps psa 8's are down a little and same goes for his 7's, they are not down huge amounts but still they have been going down. I think again its more the supply has continued to increase and the demand has just stayed steady. The opposite has been true on the more scarce Clemente issues, the prices have been going up a ton, things like Kahns, Bazooka, Macgregor are thru the roof.

I think scarce issues with much lower pop's have not and might not ever reach a saturation point, I think the 55 Topps AA football set is a good example. A set with solid demand in all conditions, which translates to me into more demand for this set top to bottom than supply. I look at sets like E93, E94, E98's where there is a lot more demand than supply and no one is surprised that prices have been rising for years on all grades.

RonBurgundy

"I think real "investors" on product that's pre-1970 are really only worried about 9's and 10's. It's been discussed ad nauseam on this board, but there is definitely high grade raw vintage left out there. If I were an investor, I wouldn't want to invest in a market where the demand is only ever going to see modest increase but the supply is guaranteed to increase. That's why the modern low-pop common thing is ridiculous, but the same can be said to a far smaller extent about "undiscovered" raw vintage. There are houses and houses out there with attics of cards from the 50's/60's. It's crazy to think otherwise. So for anyone to invest in an 8 with a pop of 100 or so from 1959, it should be done with the understanding that 10 years from now there will probably be 150 8's. That's why I believe investors can only worry about super high grade. If a card in a PSA 9 is pop 30, you have to think there won't be 100 9's in 10 years. Thus, that would be a decent "investment." "



I almost hate to say this because I don't want this thread to morph into something else, but add in the fact there are known card trimmers out there who are getting cards into 8 and 9 holders - thus increasing the "supply" of tough, high grade cards- there is no doubt that the pop reports will be increasing in addition to what is mentioned above.

Mike - I've checked several years, but not all of them. Certain years will be hot where there is registry competition going on, but by and large 7's are dead.



Ron

carew4me

Its not a hard line between collector/investor....but there are definetly two types of buyers

My point is that if your are looking for 8 or higher...you are much more concerned about the "value of your collection"

If you are buying 7 or below then you ar not worried so much about "how much its worth or going to be worth in the future".

I dont see too many threads complaining about "my psa 7s are fetching what I paid...whats up?!?!?!"

Of course high dollar rookies and other sought after cards would drive this theory to lower grades, but in general
I have found this to be true.

Morgoth

I have actually switched my collecting mentality from all 8's to 8's, 7's and 6's with good eye appeal.

My reasons are that in the years I collect there isn't any true rarity out there so why pay alot more for an 8 when the better centered 7 gives me just as much joy?

Also, I have been used to trading and selling with dealers who don't normally touch 7's and below post war. With Ebay and these boards I have found much better avenues to sell or trade parts of my collection I don't want anymore.

And by allowing myself to trade down I can actually own Hank Aaron or Clemente RC and not just wait until I make alot more money or get a good tax return to be able to afford an 8.

JasP24

<< <i>Its not a hard line between collector/investor....but there are definetly two types of buyers

My point is that if your are looking for 8 or higher...you are much more concerned about the "value of your collection"

If you are buying 7 or below then you ar not worried so much about "how much its worth or going to be worth in the future".

I dont see too many threads complaining about "my psa 7s are fetching what I paid...whats up?!?!?!"

Of course high dollar rookies and other sought after cards would drive this theory to lower grades, but in general
I have found this to be true. >>



This is what I collect:

1933-1949---PSA 7
1950-1969---PSA 8
1970-1987---PSA 9
1988-present---PSA 10

I based my minimum collecting standards on what I could realistically expect to own, based on prices and populations. I wanted an attainable goal in my sets. PSA 8's from 1948 Leaf football or 1935 Chicle football are above what I can afford..In the 50's-60s, PSA 9s in most cases are very low pop and nearly impossible to find. Same for PSA 10's of the 1970s. You get to modern cards, and in most cases PSA 8's or even PSA 9's are virtually worthless. PSA 10's are in most cases easily attainable (1989 Score is a prime example).

So, does this make me an investor? I don't feel it does. I've been collecting PSA graded football HOF RCs for 9, almost 10 years now. I'm not a dealer, although I do sell the cards I upgrade along the way. Any money/profit I make goes back into buying more cards for my collection. But I also don't think I need to be chasing PSA 7's from 1975 in order to consider myself a collector. I guess I'm a hybrid, and most guys I know who collect the football HOF RC set are similar in how they do business.

Jason

Estil

Well, as you guys already know, I'm starting to do the PSA thing myself after being a fuddy duddy raw traditionalist sort of collector since the beginning. My goal is to get the key cards from 1974-79 (and then start on 1973 if there's enough left over) in PSA 7, possibly PSA 8 for 1978-79. I figure PSA 7 seems to be the "par" grade for that time period (in fact it seems a good rule of thumb is to "match the decade"; do PSA 7's for 1970s, PSA 8 for 1980s, PSA 9 for 1990 onward). I for one am quite fortunate that 70s PSA 7's are now quite affordable. Doing sets with PSA 8 keys would be definetly out of the question as far as affordablity goes.

carew4me

If you look forward to a nice payday "if" you ever have to sell....

you are an investor.....ok you are a collvestor!

I does not make you a bad person or less pure, but it does mean that monetary/market value considerations come into play.

You are not the same as the guy putting together a low grade set for the love of it.

and thats just fine.


after all what is the point of the .5 bump resub? greed! Be proud of of it!

bigfische

They might be declining in value, but it is a correction that needs to happen in every market when prices get artificially inflated. Vintage commons from the fifties on up probably shouldnt be worth a whole lot. They are, afterall, commons. They have been been riding a wave of false scarcity and pride (set registries) that was impossible to sustain.

jrinck

The Set Registry is a hell of a drug.

I've always viewed the registry as a bubble. When it was new, everybody wanted in on it. To some, it seems, it's more about "winning" than it is amassing a decent set.

But there is no inherent value in being #1 in the set registry--and as time goes on, you'll see fewer and fewer people care. They'll still collect the cards--they just won't care too much about 7,8,9 or 10.

But what the registry bubble DID do is entice speculators to send in cards looking for 8,9,10--and when they didn't get them, the casual collector market sees a flood of the 6s and 7s.

So the registry is at least good for that. Those cards wouldn't be slabbed 6 or 7 without the registry.

JasP24

<< <i>If you look forward to a nice payday "if" you ever have to sell....

you are an investor.....ok you are a collvestor!

I does not make you a bad person or less pure, but it does mean that monetary/market value considerations come into play.

You are not the same as the guy putting together a low grade set for the love of it.

and thats just fine.


after all what is the point of the .5 bump resub? greed! Be proud of of it! >>



I'll agree with that...Value, definitely comes into play...BUT, I also collect for the love of it...Although I wouldn't categorize it as "looking for a nice payday" if I ever sell, but rather would like to at least get my money back. The difference between me and someone putting together a low grade set is that I have spent high 5-close to 6 digits on my collection, rather than a few hundred or maybe a couple thousand. I don't think it makes me an investor for not wanting to take a 5 digit loss "if" I ever sell. I definitely don't look upon my cards that way. I have scans of every card I own on the Registry just so I can view them when I am away from home...I spend years scouring ebay and dealer inventories looking for high end cards for my collection. I'm not a "slab" collector.

In summary, my reason for responding initially was that you insinuated that you have to be one or the other, collector or investor and I just don't think that is the case. You can be both, and you can lean more heavily in any direction you please. As long as I enjoy the hobby and I'm not flushing large amounts of money down the toilet doing so.

Greed? Pretty harsh judgment towards anyone who resubs their cards because they believe that they belong in a higher graded holder. Your opinion I guess..I won't even go there...

Jason

MajorDanby

7 has traditionally been labeled the "collector's grade." Most collectors feel a card graded a 7 is of high enough quality in terms of condition...but low enough that it isnt too expensive. It's like a mid price product, basically. For consumer who dont want to spend a lot, but are getting features above the lowest standards. I dont want to eat at McDonalds or Burger King, that's way too below me. But, I know I cant afford to eat at a Chez Panisse (bay area folks know what i am talking about) or any other fancy restaurant...because 1.) I need to eat 3 meals a day and at $40 a plate, i dont think i can afford eating at a fancy restaurant every meal and 2.) Although i like to splurge on a meal once in awhile for a special occasion, i dont see a big difference in terms of overall satiation between a high priced and a mid priced restaurant. Of course, apply this analogy to sports cards.

Now, many above have already mentioned several reasons for this empirical finding that PSA 7 cards are going down in value. I think supply is exceeding demand. I think collectors are perhaps feeling that PSA 6 is the new collectors grade...maybe because of the recession talk, an overall disenchantment of grading in general leading to a disbelief in the accuracy of the grades ("a 6 looks like a 7 to me...the graders are just stupid") or perhaps a demand for lower graded cards to fund an expansion in the collection (many post war collectors are now going into prewar...where prices are astronomical). I dont think there is an upward trend, i.e. either collectors are now labeling PSA 8 as the collectors grade or just an overall interest in upgrading one's collecting standards to NrMt-Mt status. But, I may be wrong (i think someone mentioned empirical evidence pointing to a decrease in PSA 8 prices, which would lend evidence to the later argument). The half grade system shouldnt explain the decrease...at least not yet. The half grade system was barely introduced and instituted this past month. The decrease in PSA 7 prices has been happening months before. We might see the new collectors grade pushed up to 7.5 or 8, but we cant empirically prove that until a half year or even a year from now when more half grade cards enter the system.

11235813

Vito,

I would question your assertion that

<< <i>there is definitely high grade raw vintage left out there. >>



There is, to be certain, still some raw vintage out there waiting to be discovered in attics and warehouses, but I seriously doubt that such finds would be "high grade". Even if they have survived the years undamaged and are in pristine condition with four sharp corners, they will still be just as likely to suffer from poor centering and printing defects as cards already in circulation.

After all, even if you were to buy and open a wax pack from the 50's/60's this weekend, probably less than 50% of the cards in the pack would be centered well enough to be PSA 8 quality or higher.

bifff257

<< <i>Welcome knucklehead. perfect name for you !! >>




I almost lost my lunch from laughing so hard at that comment..










<< <i>"collectors" now pursue 7 and below >>





I consider myself a collector and Mid Grade vintage 6-7 is the only way to go.....

Even if I had deep pockets I just cant see paying 8-9 prices for vintage material.

carew4me

Jason,

If greed is the wrong word, how about "the quest for financial enrichment wrapped around a hobby you first loved as a kid"

better...

Now go ahead and tell me that most people seeking to .5 bump do it because they rest easy knowing the card is now graded "correctly"

Come on dude...it is because there card/set/collection has now increased in value($$$$).

Is that so bad?

Greed is good!

smtjoy

Lots of good points here, the more I think of it the more I think its just over supply. I was just looking at the pop report for 1967 Topps (I dont collect the set and only own the Clemente). I picked two commons to look at-


# 1967 Topps PSA Registry sets- 99


Card #90 Jim Nash (pop PSA 7- 20, 8- 37, 9-4, 10- 0 for a total pop of 73 graded)

VCP 5 sale ave- PSA 7- $29.21, PSA 8 $131.23, PSA 9 $1000


Card #258 Lee Maye (pop PSA 7- 14, 8- 136, 9- 77, 10- 6 for a total pop of 243 graded)

VCP 5 sale ave- PSA 7- $6.95, PSA 8 $8.75, PSA 9 $26.28


Just by looking at these two you can understand a huge disparity in price. I think it also shows how saturated a card can get, just look at the Maye, 77 PSA 9's is a ton. It's no wonder the 8's sell for under $9 even thou SMR has common 8's at $15 and the 9's sell for $26 and SMR is $60. There are just too many of these cards graded and I would bet the price will never go up. There are only 99 registered sets and if they all had card # 258 that would still leave 114 PSA 8+ out there, ouch.

So my view is that if I was an investor I would stay away from #253 in any grade but if I was a collector I would think this is great I can have my choice on an 8 or a 9 and I can get the card cheap.

Overrated

Do not Invest in cards! enjoy them. cards are like real estate, never get in over your head. Invest your money in a Ira. Cards are not a investment, they are cardboard heros to enjoy.

JasP24

<< <i>Jason,

If greed is the wrong word, how about "the quest for financial enrichment wrapped around a hobby you first loved as a kid"

better... >>



You can call it whatever you want. I collect the highest graded, highest quality cards that I can afford. If that offends you or causes you to call those who do so "investors" so be it.

I love football. I study NFL history. Before cards, I collected vintage game footage (not cheap, and you can't re-sell legally)...For me the cards are a way of bringing a piece of each HOF players history into my house. I also collect autographed pieces as well. I'm glad they have value, because it validates to others (specifically the wife) the amount of money I spend.

Carew, do you even collect graded cards? If so, how do you determine how much you will pay for a particular card? If a 1989 Score has great artwork and perfect corners do you bid $2,000? Not sure I understand how value/price doesn't play a part in how every collector views this hobby..

Jason

Ahmanfan

I'd rather find that '57 in exmt or nm for $8 instead of paying $20-30 for the psa 7. maybe a lot of collectrs think the way I do?

perkdog

<< <i>I'd rather find that '57 in exmt or nm for $8 instead of paying $20-30 for the psa 7. maybe a lot of collectrs think the way I do? >>



Yes and no, there are thousands of collectors out there that swear by PSA 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, raw, poor,fair,vg,ex,nm,mint, sgc, gai, gem,bggs,bvg. NOBODY knows what the future market will bring, period.

Collect what fits your wants/needs and you cant go wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TJMAC

Good topic. I have no PSA commons in my collection, but collect basically PSA 5-6 superstars and HOFers from the 50's, PSA 6-7 from the 60's. PSA 6, 7 and 8 from the 70's and PSA 8 and up in the 80's and after. Though, I have seen changes in the 70's pricing the 50's and 60's have remained very steady and may have gone up a little in these grades.

BigDaddyBowman

I think that it depends on what your buying. Vintage football HOFer's and Stars seem to have held their value...if not gone way up. Just off the top of my head, I remember buying an Otto Graham PSA 7 rookie and a Bart Starr PSA 7 rookie off of ebay about 5 years ago...both for just under $300 a piece. What would they sell for now? I am confident that I could get at least $100 more for them if not more. If you buy the card, not the holder and you choose cards with good eye appeal, you will do alright in the long run. In the short term, vintage card prices will fluctuate based on supply and demand, the overall economy of our country, and just a little luck. Every year, the demand for vintage goes up, yet the supply remains fairly constant. Sure there might be that rare high grade vintage "find," but I don't believe enough cards would enter the market to make that much of a difference in price. I do believe that the prices of commons can be very volatile and are at times grossly inflated due to the registries. RonBurgundy mentioned that in the last year he has noticed a downward spiral in prices. Although, I have not noticed a major difference in what I buy, you just have to look at the economic times. As we are nearing (if not officially already in) a recession, it makes sense that the the prices of collectibles would suffer. Less disposable income=less money in the hands of collectors to buy the cards. In the city I live and work in, our school tax levies are on the ballot today. One a renewal levy, and one a new money levy. Renewals almost always pass. As of the last reports on our local news, BOTH of our school levies are failing. The new money levy would cost about $200 more per year...yet people are not willing to pay it. Will they spend $200 on a PSA 7 right now. Doubt it. In a few years, hopefully the economy becomes stronger, more disposable income enters the market, and prices will again rise.

EDITED with results: The renewal levy passed by about 2,000 votes out of about 40,000 voters..whew! to close for my liking. The new money levy failed miserably by over 16,000 votes. Economic times are tough for many and its showing in the votes. I believe that every new money school levy failed in the Cleveland Area.

2dueces

One mans junk is another mans treasure. I personally love the h@ll out of PSA 6' and 7's with good centering and great eye appeal. If the prices are lower now it's a great time to buy. Remember buy low and sell high or buy low and enjoy a beautiful collection. When people kick them to the curb you can grab them at bargain prices. There are only so many 9's out there and the demand eventually will trickle down to your 7's that you picked up for a steal. Enjoy the low prices now. SOme day when they sell for $100 you'l say, " I remember when I could get a cart full for $20.00. Ahhh, those were the days. Joe

hofautos

collect rookies of the superstars, and collect the highest grade within your budget and you will see more appreciation than depreciation...

rube26105

Hasn't been the case with '55 TAAs, that's for sure

50 bow fb either!!!!!!! i did see some pecious 8.5 1/1 pops for sale!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! im not buying anymore unless it something i cant live without till everybody gets done cracking and resubbing all the 50 bowman stuff they have, i have some stars in 8 that would go up to 8.5 im sure- my jim finks looks good,thats about as far as ive gotten in the boxes the sets in

if i take a break from it i can start slabbing my all autographed set

BugOnTheRug

GAI has been secretly making huge strides against the PSA current this very minute. When they finally have everything in place and their corregated tin roof is fastened tight, GAI will again become a household name, sending psa 7's and lower to the chump-change arena.

AlmostPerfect

<< <i>I have Topps baseball wax packs 1988-1991 , also Donruss 1988 and 1990 and Fleer 1990. Are any of these of interest. My email address is berniethedog@optonline.net. I am new to the PSA message boards. My ebay name is sercretservgy. Thanks Ronnie >>



Um, how should I say this.....


No

TheCARDKid

I think the supply and demand picture for psa 7 and 8 commons isn't going to be pretty.

I don't follow that market closely, but long term I think the price of commons post 1960 is going to be the grading fee plus the raw cost of the card, and not much higher. Especially post 1970, 73. How many more 75 Topps commons are out there from vending? Or 77?

The market will flatten out. Low prices will keep the submission numbers stable, there's no incentive to submit weak cards if you can barely get the cost of the grading fee.

Maybe at some point a return back to a preference for raw cards? Maybe the tide will turn on 7's and 8's.

thedutymon

Good Morning,
I am a Non Sport guy mostly and am seeing across the board what you guy's in the Sports world are seeing happening. 3-5 years ago their were numerous major Non Sports sets from the 1960's (My collecting and E-baying niche). I was the first one to start off a lot of those sets with submissions and for the first couple of years I could get back 8's and 9's and get top dollar, were talking $100-300 on commons for the major sets like Topps 66 Lost In Space. When I submitted my first lot of those there were like 80 Graded NM-MT 8's and 21 MINT 9's/ Here it is 2 years later there are 655 8's and 40 Nines, so the MINT 9's will still bring top dollar, but you can barely give away an 8 !! And this is just one example, With 4SC jumping into this arena big time and the plethora of cards that are being Graded, sets that will return some reasonable return for the trouble to have them Graded have dwindled explosively !!! Most of the Vintage 60's stuff unless I need it for my sets I have just given up even bothering, when you go to all the trouble to Garde, ect. and you can't give away a NM-MT 8 for .99 cents...its over for now. And I do believe the recession is playing into this. It is also cyclable and as more and more Dealers get stuck giving this stuff away, they will submit less and less and the old Supply and Demand comes into affect again.

Just my .02

Neil

Morgoth

I think that all collectors keep an eye on value it's just human nature, we don't want to get screwed on a deal and if we have to sell we need to know what to expect to get in return.

Ron, I think that if you look at post war baseball, the pop explosion is just starting for some years. With bulk submitters not caring about pop reports they are basically hammering all years and cards. True low pop cards may be out there but what we considern rare now (less than 15 in PSA 8 or better) may be 2 to 3 times that in the future when all is said and done.

Commons are a bubble market and busting in some years (68 for one). I would suggest maybe going back to raw sets with graded stars for most of the 60's and 70's sets.

11235813

I think that instead of looking at a specific grade, you should look at the pop numbers (as unreliable as they are because of crack-outs). Any card whose population in a given grade rises over ten (arbitrary line, I admit), will probably have trouble maintaining its value.

There are even already plenty of 50's/60's PSA 9's whose populations are already in double digits, and 70's/80's PSA 9's whose population is in triple or even quadruple digits (there are 193 PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC's for example, 394 PSA 9 Bird/Magic RC's, 962 PSA 9 Joe Montana RC's, 1201 PSA 9 Elway RC's, and 3382 PSA 9 Cal Ripken RC's). Even a lot of 80's PSA 10's are already in triple digits (127 PSA 10 Jordan RC's, 161 PSA 10 Ripken RC's, and 181 PSA 10 Marino RC's, for example).

There is no way demand will keep up with supply for these cards. Anybody who is paying top dollar for the above-mentioned cards in these grades is going to get killed financially down the road.

stown

<< <i>I think that instead of looking at a specific grade, you should look at the pop numbers (as unreliable as they are because of crack-outs). Any card whose population in a given grade rises over ten (arbitrary line, I admit), will probably have trouble maintaining its value.

There are even already plenty of 50's/60's PSA 9's whose populations are already in double digits, and 70's/80's PSA 9's whose population is in triple or even quadruple digits (there are 193 PSA 9 Ozzie Smith RC's for example, 394 PSA 9 Bird/Magic RC's, 962 PSA 9 Joe Montana RC's, 1201 PSA 9 Elway RC's, and 3382 PSA 9 Cal Ripken RC's). Even a lot of 80's PSA 10's are already in triple digits (127 PSA 10 Jordan RC's, 161 PSA 10 Ripken RC's, and 181 PSA 10 Marino RC's, for example).

There is no way demand will keep up with supply for these cards. Anybody who is paying top dollar for the above-mentioned cards in these grades is going to get killed financially down the road. >>



You are being way too general and generic with your statements.

For early 50's (50-55) football, there are essentially no 9s even being close to double digits. Also, there's only a handful of 10s for all of the sets over the years.

As the years progress, yes, you do uncover more higher grade cards but that's a given..

If you want to only focus on 80s and 90s product, I cannot argue your point. However, millions upon millions were produced, so it's simple economics.

RonBurgundy

Interesting thoughts so far. Much of it seems to validate the increasingly popular strategy of doing raw/partially graded sets. Morgoth mentioned 1968 baseball......I have 300-400 commons from that set that should grade 8 or better, and they will never be graded for the reasons he mentioned. Same with most of my 70's stuff.




Ron

11235813

Stown,

I think we probably agree, even though we don't realize it. All I was pointing out is that there are already quite a few cards from the 50's/60's who populations are in double digits in PSA 9.

"Quite a few" is just that....it doesn't mean "all" or even "many". And there are of course, plenty of issues (for example the early football which you collect) for which PSA 9's are still very, very scarce.

But take a popular set like 1960 Topps....most of the stars are well into double digits in PSA 9, with the Mantle AS having 55 PSA 9's. Even if you go back to 1954, most of the stars are in double digits in PSA, with there being 20 PSA 9 Aaron RC's.

Whereas a couple of years ago, PSA 9's were truly scarce (populations <5 in most cases), with more and more cards being submitted, they are now, in many cases, much less difficult to find.

Mickey71

This is why I collect Mantle's. Mantle's have always stood the test of time in grades 1-8. Mantle's right now are selling great in a 7 grade. I want everyone to keep worrying about 1960-1969 commons graded 8 while I buy the Mantle's. If you buy centered Mantle's you can not lose. Let's face it folks, the only thing that makes a low pop common valuable in the 1960's or 70's is the fact that the registry has fierce competition. Do you really think Marshall Fogel brags at house parties about a 1971 Claude Raymond card which is very hard to get in high grade- I don't think so.
Mickey71

JasP24

<< <i>This is why I collect Mantle's. Mantle's have always stood the test of time in grades 1-8. Mantle's right now are selling great in a 7 grade. I want everyone to keep worrying about 1960-1969 commons graded 8 while I buy the Mantle's. If you buy centered Mantle's you can not lose. Let's face it folks, the only thing that makes a low pop common valuable in the 1960's or 70's is the fact that the registry has fierce competition. Do you really think Marshall Fogel brags at house parties about a 1971 Claude Raymond card which is very hard to get in high grade- I don't think so.
Mickey71 >>



I think the same applies to vintage football rookies...Prices haven't come down at all...I've never collected commons, only star rookies. It's players that I care to learn about and who played a meaningful part in football history. They are cards that will always be popular because the players on them were/are popular and well known. Johnny Unitas, Jim Brown, Joe Namath..Even the average fan knows who these guys are.

Jason