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Are Matte Proof Lincolns and Classic Head Gold currently being promoted? (revisiting an old thread f
RYK
Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
The reasons I ask:
I have been an active participant here for five-plus years, and I do not remember much conversation about Matte Proof Lincolns until the last year or so. Now, it seems like there are a number of collectors interested in them and prices are rising. They seem to be common enough that they could be promoted, but rare enough that the market for them could be controlled by a few parties if they wanted.
Similarly, no one here (except maybe Nysoto) was interested in classic head gold as a series five years ago. At last year's FUN show, one dealer had three completely full cases of classic head gold, which was a signal to me that something was up. Three years ago, I rarely saw them in dealers' inventories, and now, you cannot swing a dead cat at a coin show without hitting a few pieces. The major auctions (Heritage and Stack's) seem to be full of them, as well. Despite this, prices seem to be holding firm and even escalating for the better date pieces.
In my mind, there are at least three possible explanations for these observations:
1. Both of these series are interesting and highly collectible. They were dormant for a while, and they have come back into vogue with collectors.
2. The series are under promotion and the markets are being subtly manipulated.
3. My observations and assumptions above are completely wrong.
4. Combination of one or more of the above
5. Other
I have been an active participant here for five-plus years, and I do not remember much conversation about Matte Proof Lincolns until the last year or so. Now, it seems like there are a number of collectors interested in them and prices are rising. They seem to be common enough that they could be promoted, but rare enough that the market for them could be controlled by a few parties if they wanted.
Similarly, no one here (except maybe Nysoto) was interested in classic head gold as a series five years ago. At last year's FUN show, one dealer had three completely full cases of classic head gold, which was a signal to me that something was up. Three years ago, I rarely saw them in dealers' inventories, and now, you cannot swing a dead cat at a coin show without hitting a few pieces. The major auctions (Heritage and Stack's) seem to be full of them, as well. Despite this, prices seem to be holding firm and even escalating for the better date pieces.
In my mind, there are at least three possible explanations for these observations:
1. Both of these series are interesting and highly collectible. They were dormant for a while, and they have come back into vogue with collectors.
2. The series are under promotion and the markets are being subtly manipulated.
3. My observations and assumptions above are completely wrong.
4. Combination of one or more of the above
5. Other
0
Comments
With that in mind, I hope the series does catch on with collectors since these coins aren't a long series and they provide a tough date or two.
I can't say much about MPL's except that it seems that the series has taken off within the last 12 months.
Brother, concerning MPLs, I'd say that numbers 1 and 2 are correct.
One because they have been dormant for a long time. Because of that, they were cheap and available and they do make a beautiful set. Remember, the entire set has a mintage of just 15,314 and less than 5,000 have been slabbed! I seriously doubt that many more will ever be slabbed because they are so hard to identify. To me, it's an impressive set that a working man can still collect.
Two, I do think that thay are being promoted but that isn't a bad thing any more than advertisement is bad. Finally, I get to post about MPLs rather than reasons I didn't get a 70 on my last group of modern submissions.
Lincolns have always been popular but not the mattes. They are hard to spot and the price difference is enormous. Because of the risk involved, no one wanted them. Along comes TPG and the fear has been taken away.
Because of the fear of getting burned no one collected them and their prices were stagnant. Right now they are very popular and ( in this old man's opinion ) cheap for the mintage.
It is hard to promote something that you cannot find. Go to any major show and you will find more 1856 Flying Eagle cents than you will Matte proofs.
I think the recent run up is due to increased collector awareness. I collected Lincolns for years before I even knew about MPLs. The increades price movement has brought more collectors into the group and as you know, just like in the stock market, everyone likes to jump on winners.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It is a beautiful coin, a nice bridge transition to the libs. The no motto, straight forward design, the old timey ms. lib., but the most coolest thing is the craftmanship of the date numbers. For example, one variation of the '36 has a very long 1 and the 8 and 6 looks like someone carved it with dental tool. It is beautiful hand craftsmanship and die work well before the modern presses or die making technology had evolved into. And, think what was going on in '36, the first "modern" presses were delivered to the US Mint, Texas Declares Independence, the Gobrecht dollar was issued... Gobrecht dollar...
Coin ON!
Also, it was a one post thread...no responses. It was just all so curious.
1. Both of these series are interesting and highly collectible. They were dormant for a while, and they have come back into vogue with collectors.
I know of at least one collector on this forum who is selling a ton of stuff so they can afford
nice mattes. The discussion level of these coins have really ramped up on this forum and I
think the market is so small, it only takes 5-10 people wanting a set to increase competition
as well as discussion.
As for classic head, i feel that they are not very popular to this day. People may want one
for the type set but I see very few people chasing a complete set, or even a date set.
interesting post. neat to think about how series increase in activity and why.
<< <i>Brother, concerning MPLs, I'd say that numbers 1 and 2 are correct.
One because they have been dormant for a long time. Because of that, they were cheap and available and they do make a beautiful set. Remember, the entire set has a mintage of just 15,314 and less than 5,000 have been slabbed! I seriously doubt that many more will ever be slabbed because they are so hard to identify. To me, it's an impressive set that a working man can still collect. >>
Cruly, either your not up on the traditional "working man's" salary, or that stuff is getting to you too early this morning. It's making you talk crazy.
Awesome VDB by the way!
wes
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
And I, for one, am sick of these well managed promotions. Am I the only one on these boards who thinks these are market manipulation? The dealers who run these promotions are a detriment to the hobby and if they were in any other industry, they would face dire consequences. However, in the coin industry, they are touted as heros and they claim these market manipulation practices as their birthright.
[sorry for the sassy reply, but I changed too many diapers today, and it is only 11:30 AM
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
"Lower grade Dahlonega $5's are skyrocketing in price!! >"
would these be considered promotional? Or just statements of fact for the enlightenment of the collecting community?
<< <i>If a dealer who was a specialist in Dahlonega gold often started threads like:
"Lower grade Dahlonega $5's are skyrocketing in price!! >"
would these be considered promotional? Or just statements of fact for the enlightenment of the collecting community? >>
I think that if a specialist dealer wrote such a thread, which covers the lightning fast increase in prices in a series that he mainly deals in, then I would assume it is a promotional statement and would dismiss it. Granted, dealers make their millions by selling coins, so one would have to assume some element of promotion in such a statement. Sort of like the Strict Scrutiny standard in Constitutional law.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Hey RYK,
I put up a post like that yesterday, It showed how strong the recent auction prices for MPL's are. Take it anyway you want but that is the facts. Here is the paste of the post.
most recent Heritage archive sales.
1912 PR60BN cleaned ANACS $575.00/// PCGS Price guide $250
1914 NGC PR63BN $862.50///PCGS Price guide $380
I saw both of these coins in hand at the FUN show and I can tell you neither was toned or PQ IMO.
I am a dealer and I specialize in these "rare beauties" and have been known to promote the series on occasion.
Thank you for being forthright in your position on this.
Robert
<< <i>
<< <i>Brother, concerning MPLs, I'd say that numbers 1 and 2 are correct.
One because they have been dormant for a long time. Because of that, they were cheap and available and they do make a beautiful set. Remember, the entire set has a mintage of just 15,314 and less than 5,000 have been slabbed! I seriously doubt that many more will ever be slabbed because they are so hard to identify. To me, it's an impressive set that a working man can still collect. >>
Cruly, either your not up on the traditional "working man's" salary, or that stuff is getting to you too early this morning. It's making you talk crazy.
Awesome VDB by the way!
wes >>
Wrong brother, I spent 38 years working for Navistar ( International Harvester ) 15 years on their assembly line and 23 years in their power plant. I've drawn nothing but an hourly wage all those years yet any dealer that has sold to me knows my checks are good.
<< <i>
Wrong brother, I spent 38 years working for Navistar ( International Harvester ) 15 years on their assembly line and 23 years in their power plant. I've drawn nothing but an hourly wage all those years yet any dealer that has sold to me knows my checks are good. >>
Thanks for sharing. Many years of hard, diligent work are paying off. Salute!
BTW..your set of MPL and FE's are awesome!
cheers,
Ken
<< <i>Brian,
Thank you for being forthright in your position on this.
Robert >>
Robert,
Thanks,
I would like to add that I deal in the upper graded MPL's PR65-67 and you can verify that with a visit to my website. The coins I commented about in yesterdays post were grades that I would rarely handle. I was stunned to see these 2 coins bring these kind of prices in auction and wanted to share this with the people over here who might have a lower graded example of an MPL. 99% of my posts are on the registry forum and that is where I talk about these coins and sometimes will put up a coin that I have for sale over there. Once in awhile a will put up a picture of an MPL cent that I have sold on LeeG "copper for the weekend". I have also commented on the US coin forum when an MPL cent question is presented were I believe I can offer some help with the answer.
Brian
Brothers, I'm just a collector, not an investor, and like all collectors, I want as rare as I can get for my money.
Now, let's take a look at this:
An 1893 S Morgan dollar has a total mintage of 100,000 and two have been graded by PCGS as MS 67 with a value of $800,000.
A 1910 MPL has a mintage of 1,733 and four have been graded PF 67 and I own one at a cost of $7,500. That was at least double book value when I bought it. Now let's leave out popularity here and look at it from a collector's point of view. Brothers, I want a rare coin and I'm not rich so which coin can I reasonably expect to own? I have a coin that compares with a '93 S. If everybody in the world that owns all the 1893 S Morgans and 1910 MPLs that are graded 67 gathered at my house, we could set at my dining room table.
Much of what is happening with MPLs, IMO, is predictable to some extent. Next year will be the centennial of the Lincoln cent, and who knows how long any cent coin will continue to be made by the U.S. mint? Lincoln cent collectors comprise a big slice of the coin collector base, and many known MPLs have poor eye appeal (spotting, too bright as a result of cleaning, etc.). I don't think that a run-up in market value like this will occur (prior to 1913) for matte proof Buffalo nickels because of the smaller collector base and likely greater number of 'nice' coins available.
What surprises me most about all of this is the interest in low-grade MPLs (PF63 and below).
The lincoln cent anniversary is coming up (all things lincoln coin related seem to be going up as well).
There has been a, relative, flurry of posts in the last few months on the MPLs. Some offered with no fanfare on the BST that went well.
Yes, I think they have been promoted. The grade of promotion for something like this doesn't matter. I also think they are cool, as a type, to have. Not sure I would want the entire set and I don't think, given the numbers, that it is worth it to really pay for the harder ones at high levels. They will hit a peak since most people can't own them (due to pure numbers).
Interest may well wane in the coming months/year or two. They are neat to have at least one of though.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
In 2008, there were periods that half of the threads or more on the PCGS Registry Forum concerned MPLs. Now, there is very little activity of any kind. Over here, there were "MPLs for Monday" and "Look, a ____ MPL on ebay" threads regularly. Now, hardly anything. The dealer that was involved in this promotion rarely posts on the forum.
As for the classic head gold, there is a lot of the common Philly coins continually on the market. Many of the coins are problem coins or, at the very least, problematic for me. To me, they are the "Short Set Walkers" or GSA CC dollars of 19th century gold: somewhat interesting but way too common to get too excited about.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
WS
<< <i>Since this thread was last up in 2008, prices are down slightly for the common Philly Mint Classic Head Gold. The $5 C and D Mint were not part of the dealer hoard, and the prices of these have been stable. As RYK eluded to, the series is not much of a collecting challenge as a year set, all Philly Mint years are common and most are dipped. The $5 1838-C is really tough, with a lot of demand for it and not many decent coins that are not dipped and banged up. I have been unable to upgrade my PCGS VF25 after five years. The CHG set is numismatically interesting as it spans the US Mint's improvements into the steam press, fully hubbed dies, and reducing lathes.
Wow, Bill, you are going to have difficulty upgrading that one, but when you do, PLEASE contact me first to buy yours!
I purchased a 38-D in lovely P53 last year (sorry no decent photo available), and it needs company.
<< <i>Well let me remind you the run up and out right frenzy on MPL's was based on the fact that 2009 was coming and it looked like the end of the cent was near and at worst, a redesign was coming. That has past. MPL's are dropping in value. Just look at the price guide. I like to think I was part of the frenzy as I was the one who posted the weekly list of available MPL's. I started it out of shear frustration of trying to find the #$%^& coins. Others jumped on, and with SEVERAL dealers support some great sets were built and are mostly still there today. I stopped the list because it was a 5-6 hour labor project. But I often felt such efforts were needed for 16 D dimes, and other rarities, that while they may not truly be rare, the prices are all over the place. It sure did bring uniformity to the MPL pricing and really got folks seeing the difference in high end, colorful specimens vs. value.
WS >>
Watersport's efforts were greatly appreciated and he definitely created a buzz for MPLs at the time. What I see going on now is that the average to lower-end ones are dropping in price bringing down the guide, but the PQ ones are in strong hands and still trade for multiples of guide (if you can even find any fresh ones!). What I think resulted though is that the hype has brought their rarity to light and a virtual floor on value has been created. Mintages were low to begin with and survival rates are 1/3 of that. The downside is a lot less than it used to be.
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
<< <i>I think that both promotions have fizzled.
In 2008, there were periods that half of the threads or more on the PCGS Registry Forum concerned MPLs. Now, there is very little activity of any kind. Over here, there were "MPLs for Monday" and "Look, a ____ MPL on ebay" threads regularly. Now, hardly anything. The dealer that was involved in this promotion rarely posts on the forum.
As for the classic head gold, there is a lot of the common Philly coins continually on the market. Many of the coins are problem coins or, at the very least, problematic for me. To me, they are the "Short Set Walkers" or GSA CC dollars of 19th century gold: somewhat interesting but way too common to get too excited about. >>
There is a misconception out there that Classic Heads are "common". The population of even the most common Philly dates in CHG are dwarfed by many other dates in other gold series. Here is a quick chart that totals the overall current PCGS population for comparable gold series (too lazy to add the NGC numbers):
$2 1-2 $5
Draped Bust 491 2,667
Capped Bust 479 2,435
Classic Head 2,631 3,316
Liberty Head 58,853 12,853
Indian 104,588 83,513
Doug Winter recently called out the Draped and Capped Bust $ 2 1/2 as very much overlooked for their rarity, and just looking at these numbers you can see why. You can also see that Classic Heads are in no way common compared to other gold, and it can't be explained away either by its short lived run (only minted for five years), even taking that into account still leaves many dates in CHG uncommon as compared to most dates in other series.
And Proof Classic Head Gold (perhaps more appropriately referred to as Master Coins) are so damn rare they are more easily forgotten as essentially non-existant rather than being compared to their Liberty and Indian counterparts. Proof CHG $5 are listed in the 100 Geatest U.S Coins, as a series no less rather than specific dates, but I'd bet that most of you who have read the book probably skip over that page.
Early gold has generally been defined in the marketplace as dates pre-1834. Later "modern" gold starts with the Libertys of 1839. Classic Head Gold is stuck in the middle, the Rodney Dangerfield of U.S. gold coins.
While the Classic Head gold coins are scarcer than the later dates, they are out of the gold collector mainstream. Most collectors think in terms of the four, eight and twelve piece type sets and leave it at that. As a kid collector who completed the 12 piece type set, I was intrigued by these coins and added them to my collection when I was in college. Most collectors don’t advance that far, however.