Can you imagine to resubs. There were plenty when you could get a full point bump, now with 1/2 grades it will render pop reports moot.
I see broken PSA slabs.....in piles....not only after you get your sub back ...but 4SC ...whew!!! (wanted: people handy with a screw driver..multiple openings...apply within)
Big revenue boost for PSA which is what they want, and as a free market guy, I say great.
But I am having a hard time convincing myself this is a zero sum win/win (for vintage collectors).
I keep seeing people say that a 9.5 would have devalued the 10, yet somehow, many people feel the opposite is true of 8.5's and their effect on 9's. A 10 isn't the only "Holy Grail Grade". There are plenty of 8's and 9's in collections that are the highest graded, I think it is short-sighted to think of 10 as the peak. For many cards/sets, it is a 7 or an 8.
A PSA 9 '35 Chicle Nagurski - POP 1 - $240k PSA 8 - $58k. Big, BIG difference in price there. What if I get that 8 into an 8.5 holder, what just happened to the "value" of that 9? I'll say it again, the value is judged in different contexts. Marc stated in an earlier post, perhaps a bit more eloquently than I , that this will most certainly have a negative impact on the "top" grade, or in more modern cards, the 9 & 10 grades. How could a 9.5 have de-valued a 10 (and thereby been omitted) yet an 8.5 doesn't devalue a 9. I don't see how that is possible.
<< <i>I keep seeing people say that a 9.5 would have devalued the 10, yet somehow, many people feel the opposite is true of 8.5's and their effect on 9's. A 10 isn't the only "Holy Grail Grade". There are plenty of 8's and 9's in collections that are the highest graded, I think it is short-sighted to think of 10 as the peak. For many cards/sets, it is a 7 or an 8.
A PSA 9 '35 Chicle Nagurski - POP 1 - $240k PSA 8 - $58k. Big, BIG difference in price there. What if I get that 8 into an 8.5 holder, what just happened to the "value" of that 9? I'll say it again, the value is judged in different contexts. Marc stated in an earlier post, perhaps a bit more eloquently than I , that this will most certainly have a negative impact on the "top" grade, or in more modern cards, the 9 & 10 grades. How could a 9.5 have de-valued a 10 (and thereby been omitted) yet an 8.5 doesn't devalue a 9. I don't see how that is possible. >>
The difference IMO, is that when I look at PSA 8s and a PSA 9s the difference is fairly easy to see. If you've scored 1,000s of graded cards in 8 and 9 grade, IMO there is a clear cut difference on 95% of them. Between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10, there isn't as much difference, probably the smallest between any 2 grades except maybe PSA 1 and PSA 2. In most cases you have to look much harder to find the differences between a 9 and a 10. If you read through the grading standards for GEM MINT 10, PSA built the standards so that a card could achieve the 10 grade yet still exhibit very minor flaws. That is where a 9.5 grade would fit, thus pushing the 10 grade to near flawless/unattainable levels. That being said, I haven't seen many "flawless" cards in my lifetime. Changing to 9.5 would mean PSA 10's would now become the absolute perfect "pristine" cards. Unfortunatly, 90% of cards in PSA 10 holders would probably belong in that 9.5 category.
It was a smart move IMO to leave out the 9.5.
Jason
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
how will this hurt the value of the HIGHEST GRADE in a specific make/card/set...etc of a modern card? The highest grade is still the highest grade right? Wouldnt the population report still play the biggest part in modern cards(when dealing with 9's and or 10's)?
"the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting drunk..."
<< <i>It was a smart move IMO to leave out the 9.5. >>
I agree, my point was simply that if a 9.5 grade devalues the 10, why does an 8.5 grade not devalue a 9. I agree with everything you said although I've seen plenty of 8's (particularly modern) that could be in 9 or 10 holders and not look out of place. Heck, I've cracked and resubmitted a number of them. I think we both have.
9's and 10's can be a toss-up and I do agree that in many cases an 8 held next to a 9 can hold a very distinct difference. Personally, I've always thought a 7 to an 8 on vintage was a much bigger difference to the naked eye, but I'll agree that it does exist from 8 to 9 as well.
I'm really curious to see if PSA is going to sway from this decision.
Here's the math on the whole thing:
I send in 1955 Koufax for grading: I hope it's a 9 but pay for service on the PSA 8 level. $60 Card comes back an 8. I really think it should be a 9. I send in for review. $60 Comes back an 8. PSA Introduces half-points! I submit looking for an 8.5 $60 It gets an 8.5! Woo Hoo! I still think it's a 9, so I send it in for review again (now over a $2500 card) it costs me $100 regardless of what happens here, I've now spent $280 in grading fees to get a card to a grade I thought it should have had to begin with.
Josh, you forget to mention how much you paid for the card as a PSA 8, and how much it's now worth as an 8.5. That $280 in grading fees would be chump change compared to how much you increased the value of the card.
I do think 8s and 9s will lose SOME value. As Marc stated, you'll lose a little bit on the straight 8s and 9s, but IMO the gains you can make on the 8.5s will more than make up for it (if you purchased high end cards). All of your grading fees could be covered with one nice .5 upgrade of one expensive card.
As you stated, we've both already seen the plus side to this by the resubs both of us have done looking for a full grade bump. The half grades are no different except that if you don't get any or many bumps and/or you are sending in low value cards you could loose a little value absolutely.
PSA makes out on the deal, I definitely don't dispute that, but I can't wait to send in some of my higher dollar 8's that I've probably already sent before hoping for 9s. If 10% of them bumps a half grade it will more than pay for any grading fees.
Jason
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
In the case of the Koufax, I guess a bump from an 8 to an 8.5 will pay for itself. The "spirit" of that example however was to show the investment needed to get a card to the grade originally thought it could be. If I do that with an $800 card, that becomes a $1000 card the investment is a higher percentage of the cards value. I don't discount that you'll make the money back, but the point is, why should you have to pay 3 or 4 times to get it right. I guess I spent enough time around BGS cards to see the half-grade cards make their way into MUCH higher graded cards over a period of time. I've even seen them do it for free. PSA is now going to get a LOT of money from people trying to bump their nice 8's of Stars, HOF'ers, low pop commons and RC's to a new half grade. I guess I believe that while there is a distinct difference on what a PSA 8 looks like vs a PSA 9, how much less blurred does that distinction become from an 8.5 to a 9?
You said it perfectly. The lack of 9.5 which serves to 'protect' the integrity of the 10s (whatever the intention of that decision), proves that-- by the same logic-- the very existence of the 8.5s undermines the 9s. Bottom line, if you own mostly 8s, you can gain value and Registry standing. If you own 9s, you get only to watch others gain.
<< <i>In the case of the Koufax, I guess a bump from an 8 to an 8.5 will pay for itself. The "spirit" of that example however was to show the investment needed to get a card to the grade originally thought it could be. If I do that with an $800 card, that becomes a $1000 card the investment is a higher percentage of the cards value. I don't discount that you'll make the money back, but the point is, why should you have to pay 3 or 4 times to get it right. I guess I spent enough time around BGS cards to see the half-grade cards make their way into MUCH higher graded cards over a period of time. I've even seen them do it for free. PSA is now going to get a LOT of money from people trying to bump their nice 8's of Stars, HOF'ers, low pop commons and RC's to a new half grade. I guess I believe that while there is a distinct difference on what a PSA 8 looks like vs a PSA 9, how much less blurred does that distinction become from an 8.5 to a 9? >>
That's a good question Josh. We won't, at least I won't, have that answer until I get an opportunity to view a good sampling of 7.5s and 8.5s to see how PSA is grading them.
What you have to do, or at least what I have always done in the past in determining whihc cards to send in for review, which to pop and resubmit etc, is to do a cost/risk analysis. If you have a card that sells for $800 in PSA 8, and only $1200 in PSA 9 then it might not be worth your while to pay to try and get that card upgraded to an 8.5. If its a $800 card in PSA 8, that sells for $2500 in PSA 9, the benfits are obvious. No one should be just grabbing every PSA 8 common they own and send it in. That would be lunacy. Learn how to grade your own cards and if you have a few that are high end, send them in. It won't take a very high % of hits to pay for the grading fees many times over.
I tend to make up my own mind on "right and wrong". Grading is a subjective process. When it comes to half grades, the margin of error is going to be even smaller. One mans 8.5 will be another mans 9...lol
I've always believed in a saying I've heard many times around these parts but can't remember who coined it. That is "every card will eventually end up in its highest possible graded holder."
Jason
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I understand going through you collection and picking cards you think can bump but how in the heck am I supposed to tell a PSA 3 from a PSA 3.5? A 4 from 4.5? I can see it on the higher grades, but it'd be much more difficult for the low-mid grade's IMO..
<< <i>I understand going through you collection and picking cards you think can bump but how in the heck am I supposed to tell a PSA 3 from a PSA 3.5? A 4 from 4.5? I can see it on the higher grades, but it'd be much more difficult for the low-mid grade's IMO..
DAve >>
Yep sure would..and in most cases, not worth the grading fees...
Jason
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
<< <i>I understand going through you collection and picking cards you think can bump but how in the heck am I supposed to tell a PSA 3 from a PSA 3.5? A 4 from 4.5? I can see it on the higher grades, but it'd be much more difficult for the low-mid grade's IMO..
DAve >>
Yep sure would..and in most cases, not worth the grading fees...
Jason >>
except a bump of a T206 Wagner from a 3 to a 3.5 might be.
Packers Fan for Life Collecting: Brett Favre Master Set Favre Ticket Stubs Favre TD Reciever Autos Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set Football HOF Rc's
<< <i>I've always believed in a saying I've heard many times around these parts but can't remember who coined it. That is "every card will eventually end up in its highest possible graded holder." >>
I believe that too. I just want to make sure it is in its highest holder while I own it.
Marc, I see your point and I think it is a valid one, however how is PSAs new grading different than what SGC does? I see cards all the time sell well above SMR in SGC holders and they have the respective 8.5, 8, 9. I think the difference is PSA has a majority of the market share from 1950 up to 1990, and perhaps the supply might outweigh the demand. Does the value really go down that much on a PSA 9 when there is 920 PSA 8's in existance or 440 PSA 8.5s and 480 PSA 8's? I don't think so. Marc, you are a bright guy and I think your opinion is sound. I just can't stop thinking that a PSA 9 is still a PSA 9, regardless of what grades are behind it. I believe that throwing in the 8.5s and the 7.5s might hurt the feelings of the guys on the set registry, it does not mean it will hurt the finances for the set registry participants. Regards, Shane
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
This half point program might be the worst mistake that PSA ever made. In the first place it appears to be a knee jerk reaction to other programs that exist in the marketplace. I own my own business. I do not follow my competition, I lead. Meaning, I do my own thing, I do not worry what my competition does. I believe in what I do and I do it.
Second, this half graded is not about making PSA better or serving it's marketing base. This is about PSA making more money. Already some collectors are re-grading their cards hoping for the better grade. I know of instances where PSA 6 cards finally get into PSA 8 holders. The owner had the card graded and re-graded 4 or 5 times to get his grade. Just how much re-grading is going to get done, I'm not sure, but you get bet on it that there will be thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars made by PSA from those people wanting that 8 in a 8.5 holder!
Ask yourself how does this help the collector? Make the SMR "book" more accurate to the marketplace then talk to me about half-points...
And that is my "point"...
Henri Collector Topps 58,59,60,61,62,63,64 Sets Fleer 60, 61-62 Sets
I wholeheartedly believe that this decision will have a significant, negative impact on the value of PSA 9s.
By giving collectors an option to purchase an 8.5 for a fraction of what a 9 would sell for, combined with the fact that there will be a slew of 8.5s as compared to 9s, it suddenly becomes a viable financial alternative for collectors to upgrade their sets by competing less for PSA 9s and more for PSA 8.5's.
Imagine the scenario where a PSA 8 is an $800 card and a PSA 9 is a $5,000 card. (this happens in many cases, so is not unheard of). Let's further assume that such a card is a Hall of Famer and has a Set Registry weighting of eight.
Buying the $5,000 PSA 9 will get you a significant upgrade on the Registry. However, if you are able to identify to similar HOFers, upgrade to 8.5s of each for $2,000 each, you have achieved the same result on the Registry for less money. Furthermore, given that this is now an option for you, you will not be bidding on the PSA 9s as frequently, thus causing a decrease in demand for that grade. So the new grading paradigm might have a PSA 8 go for $650, the PSA 8.5 for $2,000 and the PSA 9 for $4,500.
The decrease will be felt more on the PSA 8s, but I absolutely am convinced that this will have a demand-side impact on the PSA 9s that will be fairly broad, but for a select few collectors.
Marc
You may be right, but this all assumes that PSA gives half grades the full extra .5 points in the registry, and it doesn't have to be like that (even though that apparently was the initial plan). They could always adjust the scoring for half grades in any number of ways. This plan still hasn't taken effect, and I'm hoping they will consider all these market implications before half grades become a part of the registry.
<< <i>Count me in as someone who is not happy about the idea. This undermines every card I own that is "between" grades. This is going to cost people holding high end 8-9-whatever cards money. Either re-grading fees or lose value to 8.5 and 9.5's UGH!
It turns my stomach just to think about it.
Right now I want to dump every PSA 9 I own. I can't even type what i really think as there are kids in the room.
This is going to sour us registry collectors BIG TIME.
I have two subs at PSA and two I'm picking up at the PO in the morning but right now I'm so pissed about this I don't think I'll even enjoy opening them. >>
another person who doesnt get it....
PSA 9 will GO UP IN VALUE.....
did anyone here everytake a business class or economics class?????????????????????????????
I posted this in another forum here at CU, but it pretty much sums up my thoughts:
You can start a new game, but you can't change the rules in mid-game. This is a sad development for us customers. Major collectors are jumping ship, either losing interest in their current registry sets or considering crossing them to "another" grading company rather than pay PSA re-grading fees perceived as blood money. As long as this program is going to be implemented, the corporate line has to be that it's a good thing and poo poo the scuttle talk - but that's clearly a case of the tail wagging the dog.
I have no problem with half grades. I have a huge problem with PSA changing over to half grades. My feeble mind cannot, at the moment, come up with a solid analogy, but this is just not a stabilizing decision. It will probably generate more immediate revenue for PSA, which is apparently incredibly important right now, but the instability and damage to PSA's credibility will, in the long run, result in less revenue.
I wish PSA the best of luck - personally, I'm not sure how this new business model is going to fit into MY plans, but that's MY business.
Mark (amerbbcards)
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
OMFG, PSA prided itself for so many years on not jumping onto the half-point bandwagon... WTF is this?
Grading is already so subjective that this is totally rediculous. We have all cracked and resubmitted high end 7's and had them come back 9's (not 8's), or excellent 6's that came back as an 8 (or for that matter most of us have also cracked a 9 that we thought should be a 10 only to have it come back as "evid of trimming", LMAO)... I was always of the opinion that while grading is subjective, a simple 8 or 9 gives a buyer (especially over the net) a general idea as to the value of a card, but knowing that no matter what the grade, he could crack it and half the time it would probably come back 1 grade lower or higher, simply because card grading is so SUBJECTIVE.
The buyers should be able to judge if the card is a high end example of the given grade or not as grading is just too SUBJECTIVE... So there are only two things that are going to come out of this... 1, is that a lot of people (not me) are going to be re-sub'ing cards in the hopes of getting that extra ".5", in which case PSA MAKES MORE MONEY (and my guess is that PSA ends up giving out a lot of those .5's to people who want to pay a few thousand dollars to re-sub high end examples of whatever grades they have)... or 2nd, people crack a 6 (example), in hopes of having it come back a 6.5 or higher, and since this has always been such a subjective business the "6.5" comes back as a 7, or 5.5, or a 7.5, or "evid of trimming" so they will have to submit it yet another time... either way, PSA MAKES MORE MONEY.
So now they are going to have half grades... that will literally FORCE... FORCE anyone who wants to sell an above average card (for the grade) that is worth more than a few hundred to resubmit it in hopes of getting that extra .5, which according to the SMR, that they will without-a-doubt publish, will be worth a couple hundred, or possibly thousands of dollars more...
How many thousands of $2000+ cards are sold every year? I would estimate that it would probably be worth sending in about half of those in hopes of getting that extra .5 (since it is really just a pure gamble) if you were going to sell one... lets also realize that $2000+ cards can't be submitted under any $5 special, but rather must be submitted under one of the rediculously higher grading fees (at least the $60 level)... that equals MORE MONEY FOR PSA.
... that would bring me to another point... why does it cost $10 to have a card worth $499 graded, and yet is costs $250 to have a $10,000 card graded????? Do they hire an armed guard to stand over the $10,000 card for the 1 day ("estimated") that it is at their office?... I think not. Does it take them any longer to grade the more expensive card... I would like to think that they put more thought into it, which they probably do (giving them the benefit of the doubt here)... but do they really spend 25 times longer grading that card... HELL NO.
This is VERY SIMPLY a way for PSA to MAKE MORE MONEY for their BUSINESS... which afterall, is their main concern... I assure you that the shareholders are loving this as I am sure there will be 10's if not 100's of thousands of cards being resubmitted... that could mean MILLIONS for PSA.
Upgrades will not hurt the monitary value of a PSA 9. Regardless of how many cards underneath get reviewed and are changed, the pop. report for a PSA 9 stays the same. Let's say that you have a 1959 Topps PSA 8 Hank Aaron. Someone sends in 65 cards of Hank Aaron to be graded. Out of 65 cards, only two get a PSA 7 and all the rest get 6,5,4,3 and a couple of 2's. Does that change the value of a PSA 9? Your answer should be no. Well if people start reviewing PSA 8's and 7's and some of those get bumped a half a grade up, the pop still remains unchanged for the PSa 9's. Now the value for PSA 8's will go down a little, but the nice quality 8's that get bumped to an 8.5 will bring a very large premium over the "common" 8's. The only change that I see it affecting are the set registry owners. I believe this change will make the set registry more competitive due to the half grades. I would like it if I am chasing someone for the top position, but hate it if I was #1. Shane
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
i think the biggest mistake people are making is that a collectors Registry position equates to dollars and that is not the case...
if a person moves from 4th to 5th on a registry, does that mean there cards went down? no of course not...
when selling cards, will you realize more if your set was #2 or #3? no of course not...
then why all the uproar about registry positions...
so some got with endless pockets passes you on the regitsry because he spent $2000 getting some cards bumped to 8.5....HOW DOES THAT AFFECT YOUR CARDS OR THEIR VALUE--- IT DOESNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
so stop your complaining, i think half of you dont even know what you are complainng about!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You should refer to my previous post. It has nothing to do with the registry.
The simple fact is that an 8 will now be worth less than an 8.5, and for 8's that have a several $1000 difference between their 9 counterparts, this will FORCE sellers into trying to get an 8.5 because it could easily mean an extra few or even several thousand dollar difference on the selling price of the card... so the seller is forced into spending an extra $60+ (in grading fees) trying to "pop" the card .5 points, or he risks losing out on $1000's in the selling price... PSA on the other hand is going to rake in $60+ from any seller who wants to sell a decent grade example of and card worth over $2000 that is in the PSA 7-8 range... maybe even some 5 and 6's on the even higher dollar cards.
If you think this will not lower the value of 7's and 8's, then you are nuts... Likewise, I think you would also be nuts to spend $10,000 to regrade a registry set you intend to keep, just to bump your registry GPA by maybe .15-.2 points.
I can't read every post on this issue, so if someone has already pointed out the obvious, I'm sorry. But here it is:
You have a highend 8. If it's a desirable issue, chances are it sells at greater than old SMR. The buyer cracks it out, gets the half point bump and now it's worth new SMR. Thru re-submission, PSA has taken their no-risk piece out of the increased value of a highend 8. In gaming circles, this is called the "rake".
Anyway you look at it, the "house" ain't dumb.
Mark (amerbbcards)
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
f you think this will not lower the value of 7's and 8's, then you are nuts...
Jon B your first paragrapgh made much sense, I think you nailed that one, however you really have no idea that straight 8's or 7's for that matter will go down. Isn't it also possible that they stay stable? That only the .5 cards go up?
<< <i>Jon B your first paragrapgh made much sense, I think you nailed that one, however you really have no idea that straight 8's or 7's for that matter will go down. Isn't it also possible that they stay stable? That only the .5 cards go up? >>
I think they will go down, at the least slightly. I do see your point, but I have my own thoughts; let me explain...
I think when most people buy cards there is always that thought that if you buy a high end copy of a 7 or 8, that you might be able to get it "bumped" up 1 grade. This leaves the buyers to use their own judgement on which cards that applies to. Inserting half grade tells the buyers "hey, this is a very high end 8, but not a 9". That being said, in general, any straight 8 would have no chance of becoming a 9 (at least in most buyers minds... because if it couldn't get an 8.5, why would they think it would be able to get a 9?). Obviously you will still see 8.0's that are a lot nicer than other 8.0's, but they will command far less of a premium, and probably be sold for what an average 8 is today, but as a whole, I would expect the 8's to go down in value slightly because they no longer are in the group of cards that "just missed being a 9, but instead are now cards that just missed being an 8.5".
Since PSA is in the process of ruining their name, because for years (over a decade) they promised they would never do this half point crap, the least they could do when they start this is label straight 8's as 8.0, and so forth.
At least if they do this, the collector will know when the card was graded, and it would leave more value in an "8" that was graded before the half point junk.
That being said, I still FULLY BELIEVE that grading is so subjective that half points are totally stupid. I can promise you I have some 7's that would come back as 8.5's, and likewise, I have some 9's that would be lucky to come back as 7.5's... so why bother with grading in half grades when you can't even determine consistantly what an 8 or 9 is? It is very simple... PSA is a business, and they need to make money... and this will make them a lot of it through re-subs, its that simple.
Edited:
I am going to quote "JusttheFacts" post from another thread and he said more clearly what I meant... I'll sum it up... Before, an 8 represented a card that was anywhere between an 8.0, and an 8.99, therefore the average 8 price in some buyers minds would be that of an 8.5 (right in the middle of all 8's).
Now, the average grade of an 8.0, will represent cards between 8.0 and 8.49, therefore bringing the average 8 down from an 8.5 to an 8.25... That is just another way to voice what I was thinking, and I totally agree with it. An 8.25 isn't going to be worth as much as an 8.5... does that make more sense?
Three points. I apologize if these have already been made...
1) The set registry will no longer be 100% valid. Collectors with PSA 8's that should be PSA 8.5's but were not re-graded, will lag behind inferior sets that have had all of the 8's bumped. Therefore, the set ranked #1 may actually be the 2nd, 3rd or even lower quality set.... where the 2nd, 3rd or even lower ranked set may be the best quality set. This is only true until EVERYONE has the cards reviewed, which may never happen.
2) I don't believe that sellers will be forced to have high-end 8's reviewed - and may not even want to (fiancially, it could be a mistake). I think the trend *may* be to just sell the high end 8's AS-IF they had been bumped... I.E. force the seller to pay the premium price of an 8.5 on the dealers notion that IF it was reviewed it would get the bump.
3) I think the value of 8's may go up, and not down .. to some degree. As with point #2, I believe that a lot of buyers will want to pick up (sometimes at a premium) PSA 8's that have the possibility of getting the bump. Where a collector may have been satisfied to have one nice PSA 8, he may now pick up several additional to send in for the bump. This creates a greater demand for the 8's, and an upward swing in value.
I have no doubt that after this starts an "8" will be worth more than an "8.0", for a few months... yes, in the short term there may be a slight bump because people will think a higher end "8" can get a bump, but in the long run, and "8.0" will be worth less than what an "8" is now (assuming no inflation).
That is why I believe that if you send in an "8" to see if it can get a bump, and while they won't lower the grade, they should reholder it as an "8.0"... that way you know its a true 8.0, and doesn't have a chance at an 8.5.
But... I doubt PSA labels straight 8's as 8.0's, and I'll tell you why... MORE MONEY FOR PSA (hehe, lol, had to sneak that in here somewhere)...
If they just leave the very nice, high end "8" in the "8" holder, and don't reholder it into an "8.0" holder, they could potentially have 5-10 people submit it, all hoping and thinking it should get an 8.5 instead of an 8... what does this mean; an extra few hundred dollars (if not thousands) in grading fees... for the same card, which has never been taken out of a holder, lol... that would mean a boat load of easy money for PSA.
I am a "newbie", although I read the message board quite regularly. However, due to PSA's new edict I felt compelled to join the discussion. I too am on the PSA registry and wonder how when the dust settles my collection willl be affected.
I am glad that some of these new people joining this discussion have been greeted warmly as this change does come with some shock value that I believe lurkers will finally comment. There was a thread entitled about how some of you sicken Lee, I think the attitude any newbie complaining about PSA's changes must be a SGC/BGS shill sickens me. Everyone should be given the opportunity to contribute or hang themselves without us jumping on them with "who are you with 3 posts to complain?'
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
I appreciate the warm greeting. I have NEVER submitted any cards to anyone but PSA. I have my own suspicions about PSA and their subjectivity on grading. I have always felt that since I was not an individual that had huge submission orders that my grades always reflected such. Here is a question sure to draw alot of commentssince everyone is discussing re-submitting already graded cards, how does one go about "cracking" the cards from the holder without doing possible damage to the card itself?.
Since PSA slabs are 'tamper evident' they are actually rather easy to crack. I use an exacto, others use a screw driver and what we do is on the side we basically pry it open.
Others have been known to use a pliers and crack the top corner then pry.
I would think it would be better to send them back within the slab though.
The way I see it..... collectors have already paid more for high end examples within current grades. Most people spending big bucks on cards are already looking for the higher end examples. The half grade thing is for those looking to get a higher GPA on the Set Registry.
I had a Hank Aaron Rookie 1954 Topps I had graded. I really thought it might grade 7. Centering was well within what I've seen on 7's and some low grade 8's. It had the high gloss, sharp corners and edges, it had been sitting in a shoe box for 50+ years in an attic. It had a slightly notched lower right corner and even that corner was sharp other than the notching (slight bend). The card graded PSA 6. The card sold for PSA 7 SMR value. My point..... if it received a 6.5 grade vs. the 6 grade it received..... what difference would it have made..... NONE.....the high end collector (usually) knows what they are looking for! If they see a good example even in a 6 holder they (usually) pay more for the card!
8's getting bumped to 8.5 is a cash cow for the grading companies and good for the GPA of collectors registered sets. Collectors are already paying more for high end 8's now. When the half grades come out and people pay more for them it will be viewed as a success by many..... but in my humble opinion this is already going on even without the half grades!!
I hope to heck PSA will come up with some way to differentiate between cards graded after Feb. 1 (under the new system) and cards graded when the 1-10 scale was in effect. Otherwise, there's no doubt our collections have been cheapened. It's outrageous that PSA expects us to resubmit cards at full grading price for review. What a cash scheme!
Its going to be interesting to see how market values are impacted. Once the dust settles a bit from these changes, I would expect the following to occur:
1.) The value of PSA-9s will INCREASE as going forward there will be fewer cards that make it into PSA 9 holders. Graders will likely conservatively assign high-end 8s to an 8.5 holder instead of "stretching" to get them into a PSA 9 holder. Frankly, this should lead to more accurate grading.
2.) I agree with many on this board that feel the impact on the market value of cards in their current holders will decline but for different reasons. Collectors likely will have more confidence in the grading-accuracy of cards assigned a half-point grade which will be easily identifiable as being graded under the new grading system and therefore may be willing to pay a slight premium for these cards. Conversely, going forward it will not be easy to identify which grading system was utilized to grade the majority of cards that received a "whole-point" grade. Many collectors are likely to be willing to pay a premium to know "for sure" their card is accurately graded.
This is an issue that SGC does not have to deal with and one that I'm not sure how PSA can answer.
Competition on the Set Registry might have a positive impact on the value of cards receiving half-point grades, but once set registry collectors do the math and realize how many half-point "bumps" are needed to raise a set's GPA (hint: its double the number of "bumps" it takes to raise a set's GPA under the current grading system) many may lose interest in trying to upgrade their sets with the process becoming cost prohibitive for many collectors.
3.) With the possible exception of high-dollar cards, the level of speculation in the market in the form of cracking cards out of existing holders likely will DECLINE. Think about it, the speculative value of cracking a card out that is perceived to be under-graded has now been halved. For example, cracking out a PSA-8 graded card in hopes of getting it bumped to a PSA 9 is now likely to get into an 8.5 holder at best. A full point bump can still happen but will now become a rare event. The potential return a collector can realize from the resubmitting process has been diminished by the new grading system to the point that the majority of collectors will likely reach the conclusion the cost of resubmitting isn't worth it except for higher valued cards. For some collectors such as set builders or registry participants whose primary motivation is not the monetary value of their cards, resubmitting will continue to make sense. My perception is the number of collectors (i.e. no dealers) in this category will diminish over time.
Been off the board for a number of years (*kids, change jobs, you know the drill) and I see some familiar names right off the bat. (pun intended.) Why am I here? I picked up a few cards and wanted to upgrade my set and found the announcement on the grade change. WOW is right!
BTW - Hello Shane - Still working on the 1964 stand-up set and will catch you now that I can get 8.5's... LMK what you have left in the shoebox...
Here are some thoughts on the topics in this thread:
Checked SGC and see they will charge me $5 a card to swap out my registered set. So if I really wanted a second opinion (that's what a graded card is - an opinion with and ecomonic consequence) then $5 is the going rate. The question is - does the card market feel the grades between PSA and SGC are equal substitutes? Whose grade do you trust more?
So, I feel resubmit fees at PSA should be $5 for all registered set owners, and, only for those that are regraded and reslabbed in order for PSA to keep my long term and loyal business.
Value - my first thought was make a play for all high end 8's of high value cards in the SHORT RUN ONLY. Go the bank, mortgage the farm and start buying. Why? If you can buy with a good eye, then your investment is at least a break even for resale in the short term with a major chance of an upside return for the cards that come back 8.5. Strong 8's will still be 8's even if they don't get the 8.5 upgrade. It's the lousy 8's that will loose. And if you bought on speculation and are wrong, then you should lose.
In the long term - recognize SMR is for the AVERAGE selling price, so average 8's prices will go down as the high end 8's move to 8.5. I've rarely paid SMR price for an 8 - have you? If you did it's because you could see the grade did not do justice for the card. My investment should be safe and so should that of a careful buyer. (All you guys and gals have told me time and time again - buy the card and not the grade. Now this truth is coming home to roost.)
Cracking - I bet more strong 6's and 7's will be cracked that might get the bump to 7 or 7.5 or 8 rather than submitted for regrading. The gap in the grading criteria is narrow as it is. It happens already and there is no incentive not to change this practice. Having a cheaper fee for regrading in the slab might reduce the cracked resubs.
Consistency - Maybe the new standards will help with consistency. It seems like it's needed considering the chat on the board. I bet my new 7's look better than those old 8's on the historic registry. I've always thought PSA puts too much value on the corners and not enough on centering (though it's stated as a criteria), color and image registration.
9's: they should hold their own or decrease very slightly. No matter how many 8's come back as 8.5's the pop of 9's is the same but the gap is smaller, so the percieved difference in quality is less and some buyers might drop out of the 9's market.
For those of you speak "econ" this grading change is a movement along the demand curve, not a shift in the demand curve. Demand for cards as a whole will not change, only some buyers will buy up, and some will buy down. A market shift is more a case of scarcity (vintage vs modern), overall buying ability (recession, anyone?), culturual change in the way we value sports and sports cards (steriods scandal) and general market forces. A grading policy change will not move the market.
PSA grading change has certainly done a good job of motivating people like myself that have read but never been a part of any discussion and other people to come out of the woodwork to once again join the boards. I agree with the last post that 9's will NOT be devalued and that it may actually be harder to obtain that particular grade with the newly 8.5 grade being handed out. Having never intentionally "cracked" a card, I am actually looking forward to trying that on some cards I always felt were misgraded or undergraded.
By the way, I am listed on the PSA registry as SeminoleLaw and have a T-206, T-205, T-3,1967 topps, 1968 Topps and 1978 Topps sets currently being put together. I would appreciate any and all advice and help in these pursuits(crazy or not). I know that Ihave purchased cards from "Rbdjr" in the past and see him post regularly. I really could use help on the T-3 and T-206.
The 5.00 SGC deal is that for any card? Even a card that books, say for ahhh, 2000.00?
If so then it is a deal.
As for the market, IMO both grade equally as well. However, besides the prewar market PSA cards still bring more on resale. The gap has tightened though.
Comments
No putting lipstick on this money pig.
Can you imagine to resubs. There were plenty when you could get a full point bump, now with 1/2 grades it will render pop reports moot.
I see broken PSA slabs.....in piles....not only after you get your sub back ...but 4SC ...whew!!! (wanted: people handy with a screw driver..multiple openings...apply within)
Big revenue boost for PSA which is what they want, and as a free market guy, I say great.
But I am having a hard time convincing myself this is a zero sum win/win (for vintage collectors).
Loves me some shiny!
A PSA 9 '35 Chicle Nagurski - POP 1 - $240k
PSA 8 - $58k. Big, BIG difference in price there. What if I get that 8 into an 8.5 holder, what just happened to the "value" of that 9? I'll say it again, the value is judged in different contexts. Marc stated in an earlier post, perhaps a bit more eloquently than I , that this will most certainly have a negative impact on the "top" grade, or in more modern cards, the 9 & 10 grades. How could a 9.5 have de-valued a 10 (and thereby been omitted) yet an 8.5 doesn't devalue a 9. I don't see how that is possible.
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<< <i>I keep seeing people say that a 9.5 would have devalued the 10, yet somehow, many people feel the opposite is true of 8.5's and their effect on 9's. A 10 isn't the only "Holy Grail Grade". There are plenty of 8's and 9's in collections that are the highest graded, I think it is short-sighted to think of 10 as the peak. For many cards/sets, it is a 7 or an 8.
A PSA 9 '35 Chicle Nagurski - POP 1 - $240k
PSA 8 - $58k. Big, BIG difference in price there. What if I get that 8 into an 8.5 holder, what just happened to the "value" of that 9? I'll say it again, the value is judged in different contexts. Marc stated in an earlier post, perhaps a bit more eloquently than I , that this will most certainly have a negative impact on the "top" grade, or in more modern cards, the 9 & 10 grades. How could a 9.5 have de-valued a 10 (and thereby been omitted) yet an 8.5 doesn't devalue a 9. I don't see how that is possible. >>
The difference IMO, is that when I look at PSA 8s and a PSA 9s the difference is fairly easy to see. If you've scored 1,000s of graded cards in 8 and 9 grade, IMO there is a clear cut difference on 95% of them. Between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10, there isn't as much difference, probably the smallest between any 2 grades except maybe PSA 1 and PSA 2. In most cases you have to look much harder to find the differences between a 9 and a 10. If you read through the grading standards for GEM MINT 10, PSA built the standards so that a card could achieve the 10 grade yet still exhibit very minor flaws. That is where a 9.5 grade would fit, thus pushing the 10 grade to near flawless/unattainable levels. That being said, I haven't seen many "flawless" cards in my lifetime. Changing to 9.5 would mean PSA 10's would now become the absolute perfect "pristine" cards. Unfortunatly, 90% of cards in PSA 10 holders would probably belong in that 9.5 category.
It was a smart move IMO to leave out the 9.5.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
- Westerberg
<< <i>It was a smart move IMO to leave out the 9.5. >>
I agree, my point was simply that if a 9.5 grade devalues the 10, why does an 8.5 grade not devalue a 9. I agree with everything you said although I've seen plenty of 8's (particularly modern) that could be in 9 or 10 holders and not look out of place. Heck, I've cracked and resubmitted a number of them. I think we both have.
9's and 10's can be a toss-up and I do agree that in many cases an 8 held next to a 9 can hold a very distinct difference. Personally, I've always thought a 7 to an 8 on vintage was a much bigger difference to the naked eye, but I'll agree that it does exist from 8 to 9 as well.
I'm really curious to see if PSA is going to sway from this decision.
Here's the math on the whole thing:
I send in 1955 Koufax for grading: I hope it's a 9 but pay for service on the PSA 8 level. $60
Card comes back an 8.
I really think it should be a 9. I send in for review. $60
Comes back an 8.
PSA Introduces half-points!
I submit looking for an 8.5 $60
It gets an 8.5! Woo Hoo!
I still think it's a 9, so I send it in for review again (now over a $2500 card) it costs me $100
regardless of what happens here, I've now spent $280 in grading fees to get a card to a grade I thought it should have had to begin with.
Racket? I think so.
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I do think 8s and 9s will lose SOME value. As Marc stated, you'll lose a little bit on the straight 8s and 9s, but IMO the gains you can make on the 8.5s will more than make up for it (if you purchased high end cards). All of your grading fees could be covered with one nice .5 upgrade of one expensive card.
As you stated, we've both already seen the plus side to this by the resubs both of us have done looking for a full grade bump. The half grades are no different except that if you don't get any or many bumps and/or you are sending in low value cards you could loose a little value absolutely.
PSA makes out on the deal, I definitely don't dispute that, but I can't wait to send in some of my higher dollar 8's that I've probably already sent before hoping for 9s. If 10% of them bumps a half grade it will more than pay for any grading fees.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
<< <i>For some reason the descision I made earlier yesterday regarding selling off my PSA cards does not seem so bad now.
Steve >>
Steve, Please dont get rid of any 55s without checking with me first.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
I think we all should wait and see how the market acts before we claim what will happen.
Steve0
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You said it perfectly. The lack of 9.5 which serves to 'protect' the integrity of the 10s (whatever the intention of that decision), proves that-- by the same logic-- the very existence of the 8.5s undermines the 9s. Bottom line, if you own mostly 8s, you can gain value and Registry standing. If you own 9s, you get only to watch others gain.
<< <i>In the case of the Koufax, I guess a bump from an 8 to an 8.5 will pay for itself. The "spirit" of that example however was to show the investment needed to get a card to the grade originally thought it could be. If I do that with an $800 card, that becomes a $1000 card the investment is a higher percentage of the cards value. I don't discount that you'll make the money back, but the point is, why should you have to pay 3 or 4 times to get it right. I guess I spent enough time around BGS cards to see the half-grade cards make their way into MUCH higher graded cards over a period of time. I've even seen them do it for free. PSA is now going to get a LOT of money from people trying to bump their nice 8's of Stars, HOF'ers, low pop commons and RC's to a new half grade. I guess I believe that while there is a distinct difference on what a PSA 8 looks like vs a PSA 9, how much less blurred does that distinction become from an 8.5 to a 9? >>
That's a good question Josh. We won't, at least I won't, have that answer until I get an opportunity to view a good sampling of 7.5s and 8.5s to see how PSA is grading them.
What you have to do, or at least what I have always done in the past in determining whihc cards to send in for review, which to pop and resubmit etc, is to do a cost/risk analysis. If you have a card that sells for $800 in PSA 8, and only $1200 in PSA 9 then it might not be worth your while to pay to try and get that card upgraded to an 8.5. If its a $800 card in PSA 8, that sells for $2500 in PSA 9, the benfits are obvious. No one should be just grabbing every PSA 8 common they own and send it in. That would be lunacy. Learn how to grade your own cards and if you have a few that are high end, send them in. It won't take a very high % of hits to pay for the grading fees many times over.
I tend to make up my own mind on "right and wrong". Grading is a subjective process. When it comes to half grades, the margin of error is going to be even smaller. One mans 8.5 will be another mans 9...lol
I've always believed in a saying I've heard many times around these parts but can't remember who coined it. That is "every card will eventually end up in its highest possible graded holder."
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
DAve
FINISHED 12/8/2008!!!
<< <i>I understand going through you collection and picking cards you think can bump but how in the heck am I supposed to tell a PSA 3 from a PSA 3.5? A 4 from 4.5? I can see it on the higher grades, but it'd be much more difficult for the low-mid grade's IMO..
DAve >>
Yep sure would..and in most cases, not worth the grading fees...
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
<< <i>
<< <i>I understand going through you collection and picking cards you think can bump but how in the heck am I supposed to tell a PSA 3 from a PSA 3.5? A 4 from 4.5? I can see it on the higher grades, but it'd be much more difficult for the low-mid grade's IMO..
DAve >>
Yep sure would..and in most cases, not worth the grading fees...
Jason >>
except a bump of a T206 Wagner from a 3 to a 3.5 might be.
Collecting:
Brett Favre Master Set
Favre Ticket Stubs
Favre TD Reciever Autos
Football HOF Player/etc. Auto Set
Football HOF Rc's
<< <i>I've always believed in a saying I've heard many times around these parts but can't remember who coined it. That is "every card will eventually end up in its highest possible graded holder." >>
I believe that too. I just want to make sure it is in its highest holder while I own it.
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I see your point and I think it is a valid one, however how is PSAs new grading different than what SGC does? I see cards all the time sell well above SMR in SGC holders and they have the respective 8.5, 8, 9. I think the difference is PSA has a majority of the market share from 1950 up to 1990, and perhaps the supply might outweigh the demand.
Does the value really go down that much on a PSA 9 when there is 920 PSA 8's in existance or 440 PSA 8.5s and 480 PSA 8's? I don't think so. Marc, you are a bright guy and I think your opinion is sound. I just can't stop thinking that a PSA 9 is still a PSA 9, regardless of what grades are behind it. I believe that throwing in the 8.5s and the 7.5s might hurt the feelings of the guys on the set registry, it does not mean it will hurt the finances for the set registry participants.
Regards,
Shane
Second, this half graded is not about making PSA better or serving it's marketing base. This is about PSA making more money. Already some collectors are re-grading their cards hoping for the better grade. I know of instances where PSA 6 cards finally get into PSA 8 holders. The owner had the card graded and re-graded 4 or 5 times to get his grade. Just how much re-grading is going to get done, I'm not sure, but you get bet on it that there will be thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars made by PSA from those people wanting that 8 in a 8.5 holder!
Ask yourself how does this help the collector? Make the SMR "book" more accurate to the marketplace then talk to me about half-points...
And that is my "point"...
Collector
Topps 58,59,60,61,62,63,64 Sets
Fleer 60, 61-62 Sets
Shane-
I wholeheartedly believe that this decision will have a significant, negative impact on the value of PSA 9s.
By giving collectors an option to purchase an 8.5 for a fraction of what a 9 would sell for, combined with the fact that there will be a slew of 8.5s as compared to 9s, it suddenly becomes a viable financial alternative for collectors to upgrade their sets by competing less for PSA 9s and more for PSA 8.5's.
Imagine the scenario where a PSA 8 is an $800 card and a PSA 9 is a $5,000 card. (this happens in many cases, so is not unheard of). Let's further assume that such a card is a Hall of Famer and has a Set Registry weighting of eight.
Buying the $5,000 PSA 9 will get you a significant upgrade on the Registry. However, if you are able to identify to similar HOFers, upgrade to 8.5s of each for $2,000 each, you have achieved the same result on the Registry for less money. Furthermore, given that this is now an option for you, you will not be bidding on the PSA 9s as frequently, thus causing a decrease in demand for that grade. So the new grading paradigm might have a PSA 8 go for $650, the PSA 8.5 for $2,000 and the PSA 9 for $4,500.
The decrease will be felt more on the PSA 8s, but I absolutely am convinced that this will have a demand-side impact on the PSA 9s that will be fairly broad, but for a select few collectors.
Marc
You may be right, but this all assumes that PSA gives half grades the full extra .5 points in the registry, and it doesn't have to be like that (even though that apparently was the initial plan). They could always adjust the scoring for half grades in any number of ways. This plan still hasn't taken effect, and I'm hoping they will consider all these market implications before half grades become a part of the registry.
<< <i>The POP Report will be worthless fpor the most part. All the crackouts will just destroy it. >>
100% wrong, this will actually lessen the crackouts.....come on man, its not rocket science
there will be less crackouts and more resubmits.....
PSA stated that during a review, there is no way to go down, only up.....
<< <i>Count me in as someone who is not happy about the idea. This undermines every card I own that is "between" grades. This is going to cost people holding high end 8-9-whatever cards money. Either re-grading fees or lose value to 8.5 and 9.5's UGH!
It turns my stomach just to think about it.
Right now I want to dump every PSA 9 I own. I can't even type what i really think as there are kids in the room.
This is going to sour us registry collectors BIG TIME.
I have two subs at PSA and two I'm picking up at the PO in the morning but right now I'm so pissed about this I don't think I'll even enjoy opening them. >>
another person who doesnt get it....
PSA 9 will GO UP IN VALUE.....
did anyone here everytake a business class or economics class?????????????????????????????
You can start a new game, but you can't change the rules in mid-game. This is a sad development for us customers. Major collectors are jumping ship, either losing interest in their current registry sets or considering crossing them to "another" grading company rather than pay PSA re-grading fees perceived as blood money. As long as this program is going to be implemented, the corporate line has to be that it's a good thing and poo poo the scuttle talk - but that's clearly a case of the tail wagging the dog.
I have no problem with half grades. I have a huge problem with PSA changing over to half grades. My feeble mind cannot, at the moment, come up with a solid analogy, but this is just not a stabilizing decision. It will probably generate more immediate revenue for PSA, which is apparently incredibly important right now, but the instability and damage to PSA's credibility will, in the long run, result in less revenue.
I wish PSA the best of luck - personally, I'm not sure how this new business model is going to fit into MY plans, but that's MY business.
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Grading is already so subjective that this is totally rediculous. We have all cracked and resubmitted high end 7's and had them come back 9's (not 8's), or excellent 6's that came back as an 8 (or for that matter most of us have also cracked a 9 that we thought should be a 10 only to have it come back as "evid of trimming", LMAO)... I was always of the opinion that while grading is subjective, a simple 8 or 9 gives a buyer (especially over the net) a general idea as to the value of a card, but knowing that no matter what the grade, he could crack it and half the time it would probably come back 1 grade lower or higher, simply because card grading is so SUBJECTIVE.
The buyers should be able to judge if the card is a high end example of the given grade or not as grading is just too SUBJECTIVE... So there are only two things that are going to come out of this... 1, is that a lot of people (not me) are going to be re-sub'ing cards in the hopes of getting that extra ".5", in which case PSA MAKES MORE MONEY (and my guess is that PSA ends up giving out a lot of those .5's to people who want to pay a few thousand dollars to re-sub high end examples of whatever grades they have)... or 2nd, people crack a 6 (example), in hopes of having it come back a 6.5 or higher, and since this has always been such a subjective business the "6.5" comes back as a 7, or 5.5, or a 7.5, or "evid of trimming" so they will have to submit it yet another time... either way, PSA MAKES MORE MONEY.
So now they are going to have half grades... that will literally FORCE... FORCE anyone who wants to sell an above average card (for the grade) that is worth more than a few hundred to resubmit it in hopes of getting that extra .5, which according to the SMR, that they will without-a-doubt publish, will be worth a couple hundred, or possibly thousands of dollars more...
How many thousands of $2000+ cards are sold every year? I would estimate that it would probably be worth sending in about half of those in hopes of getting that extra .5 (since it is really just a pure gamble) if you were going to sell one... lets also realize that $2000+ cards can't be submitted under any $5 special, but rather must be submitted under one of the rediculously higher grading fees (at least the $60 level)... that equals MORE MONEY FOR PSA.
... that would bring me to another point... why does it cost $10 to have a card worth $499 graded, and yet is costs $250 to have a $10,000 card graded????? Do they hire an armed guard to stand over the $10,000 card for the 1 day ("estimated") that it is at their office?... I think not. Does it take them any longer to grade the more expensive card... I would like to think that they put more thought into it, which they probably do (giving them the benefit of the doubt here)... but do they really spend 25 times longer grading that card... HELL NO.
This is VERY SIMPLY a way for PSA to MAKE MORE MONEY for their BUSINESS... which afterall, is their main concern... I assure you that the shareholders are loving this as I am sure there will be 10's if not 100's of thousands of cards being resubmitted... that could mean MILLIONS for PSA.
-just my 2cents
Now the value for PSA 8's will go down a little, but the nice quality 8's that get bumped to an 8.5 will bring a very large premium over the "common" 8's.
The only change that I see it affecting are the set registry owners. I believe this change will make the set registry more competitive due to the half grades. I would like it if I am chasing someone for the top position, but hate it if I was #1.
Shane
if a person moves from 4th to 5th on a registry, does that mean there cards went down? no of course not...
when selling cards, will you realize more if your set was #2 or #3? no of course not...
then why all the uproar about registry positions...
so some got with endless pockets passes you on the regitsry because he spent $2000 getting some cards bumped to 8.5....HOW DOES THAT AFFECT YOUR CARDS OR THEIR VALUE--- IT DOESNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
so stop your complaining, i think half of you dont even know what you are complainng about!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You should refer to my previous post. It has nothing to do with the registry.
The simple fact is that an 8 will now be worth less than an 8.5, and for 8's that have a several $1000 difference between their 9 counterparts, this will FORCE sellers into trying to get an 8.5 because it could easily mean an extra few or even several thousand dollar difference on the selling price of the card... so the seller is forced into spending an extra $60+ (in grading fees) trying to "pop" the card .5 points, or he risks losing out on $1000's in the selling price... PSA on the other hand is going to rake in $60+ from any seller who wants to sell a decent grade example of and card worth over $2000 that is in the PSA 7-8 range... maybe even some 5 and 6's on the even higher dollar cards.
If you think this will not lower the value of 7's and 8's, then you are nuts... Likewise, I think you would also be nuts to spend $10,000 to regrade a registry set you intend to keep, just to bump your registry GPA by maybe .15-.2 points.
You have a highend 8. If it's a desirable issue, chances are it sells at greater than old SMR.
The buyer cracks it out, gets the half point bump and now it's worth new SMR.
Thru re-submission, PSA has taken their no-risk piece out of the increased value of a highend 8.
In gaming circles, this is called the "rake".
Anyway you look at it, the "house" ain't dumb.
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
I don't know, this move was made based on "......a ton of feedback from hobbyists throughout the industry."
Always looking for 1957 Topps BB in PSA 9!
Jon B your first paragrapgh made much sense, I think you nailed that one, however you really have no idea that straight 8's or 7's for that matter will go down. Isn't it also possible that they stay stable? That only the .5 cards go up?
Steve
<< <i>I don't know, this move was made based on "......a ton of feedback from hobbyists throughout the industry." >>
That is a full load of total BS, and everyone here knows it.
<< <i>Jon B your first paragrapgh made much sense, I think you nailed that one, however you really have no idea that straight 8's or 7's for that matter will go down. Isn't it also possible that they stay stable? That only the .5 cards go up? >>
I think they will go down, at the least slightly. I do see your point, but I have my own thoughts; let me explain...
I think when most people buy cards there is always that thought that if you buy a high end copy of a 7 or 8, that you might be able to get it "bumped" up 1 grade. This leaves the buyers to use their own judgement on which cards that applies to. Inserting half grade tells the buyers "hey, this is a very high end 8, but not a 9". That being said, in general, any straight 8 would have no chance of becoming a 9 (at least in most buyers minds... because if it couldn't get an 8.5, why would they think it would be able to get a 9?). Obviously you will still see 8.0's that are a lot nicer than other 8.0's, but they will command far less of a premium, and probably be sold for what an average 8 is today, but as a whole, I would expect the 8's to go down in value slightly because they no longer are in the group of cards that "just missed being a 9, but instead are now cards that just missed being an 8.5".
Since PSA is in the process of ruining their name, because for years (over a decade) they promised they would never do this half point crap, the least they could do when they start this is label straight 8's as 8.0, and so forth.
At least if they do this, the collector will know when the card was graded, and it would leave more value in an "8" that was graded before the half point junk.
That being said, I still FULLY BELIEVE that grading is so subjective that half points are totally stupid. I can promise you I have some 7's that would come back as 8.5's, and likewise, I have some 9's that would be lucky to come back as 7.5's... so why bother with grading in half grades when you can't even determine consistantly what an 8 or 9 is? It is very simple... PSA is a business, and they need to make money... and this will make them a lot of it through re-subs, its that simple.
Edited:
I am going to quote "JusttheFacts" post from another thread and he said more clearly what I meant... I'll sum it up... Before, an 8 represented a card that was anywhere between an 8.0, and an 8.99, therefore the average 8 price in some buyers minds would be that of an 8.5 (right in the middle of all 8's).
Now, the average grade of an 8.0, will represent cards between 8.0 and 8.49, therefore bringing the average 8 down from an 8.5 to an 8.25... That is just another way to voice what I was thinking, and I totally agree with it. An 8.25 isn't going to be worth as much as an 8.5... does that make more sense?
It all makes alot of sense the only problem I have with all these scenarios is that until the market speaks we really do not know.
And with so many cards out there some cards graded 8 will still be nicer then those graded 8.5.
Thanks for clarifying.
Steve
1) The set registry will no longer be 100% valid. Collectors with PSA 8's that should be PSA 8.5's but were not re-graded, will lag behind inferior sets that have had all of the 8's bumped. Therefore, the set ranked #1 may actually be the 2nd, 3rd or even lower quality set.... where the 2nd, 3rd or even lower ranked set may be the best quality set. This is only true until EVERYONE has the cards reviewed, which may never happen.
2) I don't believe that sellers will be forced to have high-end 8's reviewed - and may not even want to (fiancially, it could be a mistake). I think the trend *may* be to just sell the high end 8's AS-IF they had been bumped... I.E. force the seller to pay the premium price of an 8.5 on the dealers notion that IF it was reviewed it would get the bump.
3) I think the value of 8's may go up, and not down .. to some degree. As with point #2, I believe that a lot of buyers will want to pick up (sometimes at a premium) PSA 8's that have the possibility of getting the bump. Where a collector may have been satisfied to have one nice PSA 8, he may now pick up several additional to send in for the bump. This creates a greater demand for the 8's, and an upward swing in value.
Just my 2 cents.
Paul H.
www.jamesbondcards.com
www.vintagestarwarscards.com
paul@disc-or-die.com
transparentpunk@hotmail.com
I have no doubt that after this starts an "8" will be worth more than an "8.0", for a few months... yes, in the short term there may be a slight bump because people will think a higher end "8" can get a bump, but in the long run, and "8.0" will be worth less than what an "8" is now (assuming no inflation).
That is why I believe that if you send in an "8" to see if it can get a bump, and while they won't lower the grade, they should reholder it as an "8.0"... that way you know its a true 8.0, and doesn't have a chance at an 8.5.
But... I doubt PSA labels straight 8's as 8.0's, and I'll tell you why... MORE MONEY FOR PSA (hehe, lol, had to sneak that in here somewhere)...
If they just leave the very nice, high end "8" in the "8" holder, and don't reholder it into an "8.0" holder, they could potentially have 5-10 people submit it, all hoping and thinking it should get an 8.5 instead of an 8... what does this mean; an extra few hundred dollars (if not thousands) in grading fees... for the same card, which has never been taken out of a holder, lol... that would mean a boat load of easy money for PSA.
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Welcome to the boards!
Steve
Since PSA slabs are 'tamper evident' they are actually rather easy to crack. I use an exacto, others use a screw driver and what we do is on the side we basically pry it open.
Others have been known to use a pliers and crack the top corner then pry.
I would think it would be better to send them back within the slab though.
Steve
I had a Hank Aaron Rookie 1954 Topps I had graded. I really thought it might grade 7. Centering was well within what I've seen on 7's and some low grade 8's. It had the high gloss, sharp corners and edges, it had been sitting in a shoe box for 50+ years in an attic. It had a slightly notched lower right corner and even that corner was sharp other than the notching (slight bend). The card graded PSA 6. The card sold for PSA 7 SMR value. My point..... if it received a 6.5 grade vs. the 6 grade it received..... what difference would it have made..... NONE.....the high end collector (usually) knows what they are looking for! If they see a good example even in a 6 holder they (usually) pay more for the card!
8's getting bumped to 8.5 is a cash cow for the grading companies and good for the GPA of collectors registered sets. Collectors are already paying more for high end 8's now. When the half grades come out and people pay more for them it will be viewed as a success by many..... but in my humble opinion this is already going on even without the half grades!!
Not saying that market was not already there mind you it is now on paper if you will.
Also, not all hi end for the cards brought hi end money. Now with the .5 scale that could help them.
Steve
1.) The value of PSA-9s will INCREASE as going forward there will be fewer cards that make it into PSA 9 holders. Graders will likely conservatively assign high-end 8s to an 8.5 holder instead of "stretching" to get them into a PSA 9 holder. Frankly, this should lead to more accurate grading.
2.) I agree with many on this board that feel the impact on the market value of cards in their current holders will decline but for different reasons. Collectors likely will have more confidence in the grading-accuracy of cards assigned a half-point grade which will be easily identifiable as being graded under the new grading system and therefore may be willing to pay a slight premium for these cards. Conversely, going forward it will not be easy to identify which grading system was utilized to grade the majority of cards that received a "whole-point" grade. Many collectors are likely to be willing to pay a premium to know "for sure" their card is accurately graded.
This is an issue that SGC does not have to deal with and one that I'm not sure how PSA can answer.
Competition on the Set Registry might have a positive impact on the value of cards receiving half-point grades, but once set registry collectors do the math and realize how many half-point "bumps" are needed to raise a set's GPA (hint: its double the number of "bumps" it takes to raise a set's GPA under the current grading system) many may lose interest in trying to upgrade their sets with the process becoming cost prohibitive for many collectors.
3.) With the possible exception of high-dollar cards, the level of speculation in the market in the form of cracking cards out of existing holders likely will DECLINE. Think about it, the speculative value of cracking a card out that is perceived to be under-graded has now been halved. For example, cracking out a PSA-8 graded card in hopes of getting it bumped to a PSA 9 is now likely to get into an 8.5 holder at best. A full point bump can still happen but will now become a rare event. The potential return a collector can realize from the resubmitting process has been diminished by the new grading system to the point that the majority of collectors will likely reach the conclusion the cost of resubmitting isn't worth it except for higher valued cards. For some collectors such as set builders or registry participants whose primary motivation is not the monetary value of their cards, resubmitting will continue to make sense. My perception is the number of collectors (i.e. no dealers) in this category will diminish over time.
Been off the board for a number of years (*kids, change jobs, you know the drill) and I see some familiar names right off the bat. (pun intended.) Why am I here? I picked up a few cards and wanted to upgrade my set and found the announcement on the grade change. WOW is right!
BTW - Hello Shane - Still working on the 1964 stand-up set and will catch you now that I can get 8.5's...
Here are some thoughts on the topics in this thread:
Checked SGC and see they will charge me $5 a card to swap out my registered set. So if I really wanted a second opinion (that's what a graded card is - an opinion with and ecomonic consequence) then $5 is the going rate. The question is - does the card market feel the grades between PSA and SGC are equal substitutes? Whose grade do you trust more?
So, I feel resubmit fees at PSA should be $5 for all registered set owners, and, only for those that are regraded and reslabbed in order for PSA to keep my long term and loyal business.
Value - my first thought was make a play for all high end 8's of high value cards in the SHORT RUN ONLY. Go the bank, mortgage the farm and start buying. Why? If you can buy with a good eye, then your investment is at least a break even for resale in the short term with a major chance of an upside return for the cards that come back 8.5. Strong 8's will still be 8's even if they don't get the 8.5 upgrade. It's the lousy 8's that will loose. And if you bought on speculation and are wrong, then you should lose.
In the long term - recognize SMR is for the AVERAGE selling price, so average 8's prices will go down as the high end 8's move to 8.5. I've rarely paid SMR price for an 8 - have you? If you did it's because you could see the grade did not do justice for the card. My investment should be safe and so should that of a careful buyer. (All you guys and gals have told me time and time again - buy the card and not the grade. Now this truth is coming home to roost.)
Cracking - I bet more strong 6's and 7's will be cracked that might get the bump to 7 or 7.5 or 8 rather than submitted for regrading. The gap in the grading criteria is narrow as it is. It happens already and there is no incentive not to change this practice. Having a cheaper fee for regrading in the slab might reduce the cracked resubs.
Consistency - Maybe the new standards will help with consistency. It seems like it's needed considering the chat on the board. I bet my new 7's look better than those old 8's on the historic registry. I've always thought PSA puts too much value on the corners and not enough on centering (though it's stated as a criteria), color and image registration.
9's: they should hold their own or decrease very slightly. No matter how many 8's come back as 8.5's the pop of 9's is the same but the gap is smaller, so the percieved difference in quality is less and some buyers might drop out of the 9's market.
For those of you speak "econ" this grading change is a movement along the demand curve, not a shift in the demand curve. Demand for cards as a whole will not change, only some buyers will buy up, and some will buy down. A market shift is more a case of scarcity (vintage vs modern), overall buying ability (recession, anyone?), culturual change in the way we value sports and sports cards (steriods scandal) and general market forces. A grading policy change will not move the market.
It will be intersting to see what happens.
1975 mini's
1954 Wilson Franks
By the way, I am listed on the PSA registry as SeminoleLaw and have a T-206, T-205, T-3,1967 topps, 1968 Topps and 1978 Topps sets currently being put together. I would appreciate any and all advice and help in these pursuits(crazy or not). I know that Ihave purchased cards from "Rbdjr" in the past and see him post regularly. I really could use help on the T-3 and T-206.
If so then it is a deal.
As for the market, IMO both grade equally as well. However, besides the prewar market PSA cards still bring more on resale. The gap has tightened though.
Oh and by the way, WELCOME BACK!!
Steve