that these coins stand ready to take off has been the mantra for quite a few years and they haven't done that yet, remaining stagnant or going up/down slightly. it may be a long, long wait for them to rise appreciably, but the drop.....................
I love commemerative coins and find the stories behind them as much fun as the coins themselves. It is obvious that if you want to make maximum profit buy low and sell high. Everyone wants to be the perfect investor but few are and they are legends (and often liars)
To an interesting side point: Is coin collecting for you meant to be a hobby or an investment? This is important since it affects how you value your effort put into your collection. Rarely do we the collector value the time spent in our hobby in the cost of the coin. If a hobby, then deduct the value of your enjoyment from the cost of the coin. It will then almost always be a good investment. If an investment, think like a businessperson and add the value of your time to the cost of the coin. Your gain may be less. Just a thought.
My feeling is that, if you don't need the money, just keep them. Early commems are a promoted item and right now they aren't being promoted so it probably isn't a great time to be selling.
It may be wise to stay in the market for commems just to maintain a feel for what is going on. When it comes time to sell the dealers aren't going to do you any favors. You have to know the market.
Some good discussion here. In my opinion I think you should hold them. I see some more interest in the future. besides, its a beautiful set. I look at mine many times a week. Its like artwork to me. I see more and more detail the more I look at them.
>>>>Is coin collecting for you meant to be a hobby or an investment? This is important since it affects how you value your effort put into your collection. Rarely do we the collector value the time spent in our hobby in the cost of the coin. If a hobby, then deduct the value of your enjoyment from the cost of the coin. It will then almost always be a good investment. If an investment, think like a businessperson and add the value of your time to the cost of the coin. Your gain may be less. Just a thought. >>>>
well said.....
the way i look at it ...for me....my commems are both and at some point ( as a % of personal financial assets ) it became both
some do coke....some do teaty bars....some do skiing...some do boating ect....for thier kicks....
i do none of the above ....when my buddy leaves the teatty bars all he has is a memory...i have my coins
and as far as im concerned .... i have had a blast and therefore have nothing in my commems....thus anything i get for them is free gratis
......i cant ever imagine giving some girl an oregon for a table dance
lol
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Hold if you can. As investments, coins really are long term ventures. Flipping is a short horizon, high risk investment. Some thoughts to consider are:
1. Some classic commem issues have low mintages, remember not all members of the coinage population survived or are MS65. 2. Know the series. Kinda tough with both classic and modern commems due to changing designs. 3. Looks for varieties (2*2, etc.) and make sure you have solid coins, not solid plastic. (Certification is good for authenticity provided the grading is correct, if graded) 4. All it takes is a sudden change in psychology and development of young and new collectors to thin availability. 5. Consider also the state quarter collector influx as an influence on total collector population. If we were to move to a plastic, certificate, or other type of currency the value of all series' will move up.
It could be said that number five is true for all series, not just commems.
Dan
I am just throwing cheese to the rats chewing on the chains of my sanity!
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
<< <i>I love them!! This is one of the few areas where hunting for raw gems can be very fruitful!! >>
Agreed!
I have bought a few raw commens at a decent price and have done well, but as "collector coins" I have see very few low grade coins in this series. Modern designs stink compared to the older commens, I think the older series will shine once again in the near future.
I agree with the monsterman..The top coins really bring the money..I know as I have bought a couple..in fact prices many would be embarrassed to admit paying to coax em out as Greg says..like near 40k for a Hawaii in 66?(and i already have the only pcgs 67).I could go on and on..about those top tier coins..but still must say lots of value at the other end..even a nice boring set (to me) in 65 and white would be a tough value to beat..but look at some nice original colorful coins in the 63 to 66 grade..really tough to beat that value..I am hooked (again) on commems and trying to build the best possible set..so much history,50 different designs, tough to beat those low mintages and value of the series,especially in the long..Commems really do it for me..I bought a killer lex in 67 and wish i had my old one back in 68..but at least i have it in my sights again..What a coin nerd am i huh? Bruce Scher
MM - Stop bashing moderns in one broad brush stroke.
There are great modern and ultra modern coins, like super low pop Proof Platinum "Type" coins (with mintages at 5,000 - 8,500 just like older Commems), Cheerios dollars, etc., etc., etc. If the pop rises from (2) MS68 top pop Cheerios Dollars to 6 or 8 Cheerios Dollars in MS68, IMHO, it would only mean 4 or 6 more record prices as each coin sold publicly. Another undergrade coin made the front page of Coin World this week!
SELECTIVITY is the key with moderns, just as MM points out how selectivity is vital to classic Commem collecting.
And has Bruce Scher mentioned, a special HI Commem in just the undergrade can cost close to $40,000. Meanwhile the entire 1997-2007 Proof Plat collection of 44 different type coins, with about 16 mintages under 8,500 AND A MELT VALUE OF MORE THAN $31,000!! can cost less than that single Commem. - I quoted out the 44 pc set to a board member this past week. IMHO, it's hard to beat a collection of the lowest mintage type coins the US Mint has put in ages (a few of the lowest mintage Proof Plats are in the 5,000-6,000 range) and have the protection today of nearly 80% of what you paid for your collection in the melt value of your set!! The 70's are not for everyone (more risk) - but, with a mintage of a scant 5,000 or 6,000 coins spread all over the World, there is simply only so many "perfect" coins on a number of the "selected" issues as well (and PR70DC Plat keys that are super tough to locate in the series as well - for example the 1997 PR70DC $100 has doubled in price in the Guide over the past couple years as the pop rose from 3 to 8). Selectivity again at work!
OK I've said my piece. MM please carry on with your thoughtful and thought provoking posts and Happy New Year!!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Saw this again on the front page, so thought I would update on my OP.
The advice here has been super, and I've discussed with several numismatists the quality and 'power' of the words here. I've thought about it and yes, I did lay them all out on my desk. Much different than just pulling them out 1 at a time from a PCGS box.
I'm going to cull out the 7 from the set that are 'average for the grade' and keep the rest indefinitely. I think of what I went through to find each and every one and I'd have a hard time replacing anything similar for the money. Granted, I could do OK even in this market. I put them together slowly, raw, and was picky. I only bought a few already in plastic and they had to be nice. I had some tremendous upgrades from my 'raw' prices so in a way, I took care of the 'investment' quotient as I bought so even though they haven't plussed through the Greysheet roof, I've done well (for my level).
I'll work on replacing those 7 so that the entire set is PQ for the grade. I like that better than trying to upgrade when I like most of them anyway.
>>>MM - Stop bashing moderns in one broad brush stroke.
sorry to disagree with you but
a commem made in the 20s...30s...40s or 50s with a total made of a few thousand like boones....most btw... most w/c .... most all were not all kept back then with all the knowledge of preservation and care we have today....most were passing fancies, gifts, oddities of collectors of " stuff" and memories of the times thus most through the years have seen their " better days " when minted and it has been down hill from there for most of them....many collectors back even polished their coins when tarnished with cleaning solutions which in turn ruined them....just as many collectors with cabinets ( special display furniture with drawers ) often rubbed and dusted their coins to take off contaminants and dust further reducing it`s grade....also many were put into albums causing finger prints and slide marks and the like.....even the new age protection of the flips ( pre 1980s ) was a huge contributor to the demise of 10s of thousands of coins ( personally i think its 100s of thousands ) ....aka pvc which im sure you know have ruined so many coins ....even the Smithsonian`s own curators of yester year have ruined thousands of our nations treasures by polishing them and even lacquering them .i could go on and on
bottomline is there are indeed very limited commem coins today exceeding gem condition directly due to all of the above...
then enter the modern era where as knowledge of preservation and exactly how to do it has now reached the pinnacle of capability....and in fact a regular joe like myself can now provide exactly what a museum can for their coins to insure as much preservation as humanly possible for the future generations
the fact is the damage has already been done to most of the commems that will be done ( for all intent and purposes )....and what we have left is what we have.......period
now enter the modern era of coins.....where as all the knowledge is out there and most all are gingerly taken care of from the mint to the end user as the knowledge of preservation is now mainstream and done
mint air handling systems ( keeping dust out of the air ) are now on par with making computer chips...in fact the whole mint process is designed to make a perfect coin every time...at least that's what the guys at the mint told me when i was there.....and im not surprised....
you see.....if you dont have a gem mint 10 joe dimaggio rookie card from the 30s....i can certainly understand why......and if you dont have a gem mint 10 roger clements rookie card from the 80s i can`t understand why not
as they are as different in difficulty as night and day......so too with commems vrs moderns
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Its 2-3 pieces a year for me. I will add a key in 2008 that I have waited patiently for. Hopefully, I won't get caught by the coming diruption in our economy. I am looking to move to Charlotte, NC or near abouts, from Columbia, SC. Right now I drive.
I am just throwing cheese to the rats chewing on the chains of my sanity!
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
MM - Some excellent points there and, as always, a great read.
But, I wanted to point out something you might not have thought of...
Take the 2004 Proof Platinum Eagle set with a mintage of about 5,000 sets worldwide. The mint sold this set for $2500 back in the first quarter of 2005 before closing off sales. The set is now less than (3) years old and wholesales for about $7,400. So, the set has tripled in just 3 years. No let down in sight (see below).
So, yes, while these 5,000 sets do exist somewhere in the world consider that it is a mighty big world out there. The US Mint has customers from all over the globe buying these precious metal related products. Heck, I spoke with a customer recently who told me his brother in the middle east buys huge quantities of these Eagle coins and has since 1997 (and has no plans to have them ever leave his country). Think about it - a scant 5,000 Proof Plat sets from 2004 spread over the entire world - one here, one there, one held by this grandfather, one held by that grandmother, twenty in Singapore, twenty in Australia, and on and on. Do you know what would happen Greg to the price on this 2004 Proof Plat set if just (1) investor wanted to buy up (500) sets over the next year? IMHO, the set could double from here. My best guess is perhaps a grand total of (50) - (100) sets hit the CCE dealer network all of 2007!!
Now, consider, the pattern registry. Great coins those pattern coins. I have the one and only Liberty Nickel pattern set in the registry. Consider that after 4-5 years, there are a grand total of about (50) registry sets for patterns covering every denomination of pattern coin from the 1700's to date!! Compare that to about 600+ registry sets already for Sac Dollars that started in 2000!! And, (300)+ Registry sets for Platinum Eagles started in 1997. My point... a worldwide mintage of 5,000 Proof Plat coins is VERY TINY regardless of whether a portion were harmed or lost to poor storage, etc. That is why those who bought the 2004 Proof Plat sets in early 2005 have already made a 200% return on their money, while those collectors who bought MS65 gem graded classic Commems over the same 3 year period have made possibly less than a good CD at their bank (and, of course, your monster quality toned Commems have done great for you these past 3 years, because you know the system inside and out, while "average Joe" has little clue and little chance to get anywhere near your returns - right?). And, that is why the 2005 Plat Proof set with a 5,900 mintage has also returned 100% return to its buyers in less than 2 years - even buyers with virtually no coin expertise - just a keen sense that sub-6,000 mintages on type coins produced by the US Mint have great potential, especially with the growing coin collecting base in these products.
So, what % of coins, classic or modern (not counting upgrade coins that only 1%-2% of the buying public has any chance of mastering) have come close to the performance of 2004 of 2005 proof Plat coins (raw or slabbed?) -with 100%-200%+ returns in just a couple years. So, while I agree with all your analysis on classic commems having a bright future, I also see SELECT moderns potentially outperforming nearly any other sectors of the coin market IMHO.
In the meantime, I'll just keep running my same buy ad on the BST board I have been running for this entire year.. buying 2004 Proof Platinum sets at (what I believe to be) the highest level I see any coin dealer posting a buy for the set anywhere - today $7,400 (up more than 200% from Mint issue price in less than 3 years now).
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
By the way, Wondercoin--Did you ever wonder why the Plats with their micro-mintages haven't taken off yet into the stratosphere? They're but-ugly IMO--But that's what makes this so much fun, isn't it? We can collect what we want.
not as super as the coins pics you keep putting up :-)
also not a great as some of yur historical posts which are out of this world....btw...you need to insert a link here to them
mitch
you also have some good points as there is no doubt a new type of collector out there hunting those plats.....so keep up the good work on making a market for those guys....as i know darn well you still love a monster commem when you see one and buy them when you can...or at least thats what a dealer told me when i missed one not to long ago.....he said " sorry...mitch just beat ya to it "
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
"as i know darn well you still love a monster commem when you see one and buy them when you can"
You know it! One of the problems I believe with many of the 144 pc Commems is simply that they are TOO SCARCE!! No major dealer / telemarketer can buy a position of them to offer out. In today's world, often times, one needs a large position of a product to do the proper marketing campaign (i.e. "promotion"), which can be very costly. You simply can't find a large position of the key date Arkansas, Boone, , etc. heck - these coins have mintages as low as 2,000 -3,000 or so coins and sell for next to nothing - sometimes almost as low as a modern coin that has a "pop" of 2,000! LOL.
Sure, you can buy a few here and a few there (at nearly every auction and often times the same coins recycling and recycling), but, it would be darn near impossible to buy a 500 coin position of many of the low pop coins - even though they currently sell for just a few hundred dollars per!! Hence, no major promoting of the classic Commem series and no price increases, year after year after year - further scaring away many collectors (who get a taste of the fresh kill of a smoking hot US Mint product, as nearly all the 06-W gold and silver products were, and want more).
And, again, the monster toned Commems that Greg and Bruce enjoy are simply out of the league of 95%+ of the collector base out there. Even if they had an opportunity to buy a KILLER HI in 66 (Grey Sheet bid $8k) at close to $40k (which they wouldn't because the pecking order for classic commem rarities has been long set with your names at the top of the list), nearly all couldn't step up and buy it anyway (without risking divorce from their spouse) - right? On the other hand, there is great opportunity in moderns for even the beginner numismatist who cares to study up series such as clad quarters, or MS Kennedy half dollars, or even state quarters. One can still cherrypick a high end coin out of a $1 cardboard 2x2 at a show. Heck, you can even find a $100,000+ 69-S Doubled Die Cent that cost you less than a quarter!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Thats a great lookin Bama in AU..wow..what a value there..Im with Greg on Lee G's series of informative commem posts..they are just the best..concise and very informative with always something new to learn about the coin.. Bruce Scher
there you go again ...coming up with another monster....i look at commems like a beauty contest....and lee ....your entries are show stoppers and...i can assure you... we all marvel at
i think i can speak for bruce here when i say....can we order a 100 as we want to split em between us..........please!!!!!!!!!!
yo bruce ...why cant we order au 55 bamas that look like that ...like we order tires???? :-).........oh i forgot they are fookin rare
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Ya i would split those 100..shoot em on over..bet a couple might even go up a tick or 2.. wish i would've left a few alone in their old holders..im surprised sometimes by what goes up or is in a high holder and what doesnt make the cut..but regardless of the grade Lee does show the goods..i would so buy that coin.. Bruce
Yes, Classic Commems are no good! Baaaaaad coins. Baaaaaaaaaaad! Selll them now and buy moderns! Moderns are so goooooooood! Classics are baaaaaaaad!
I'm baaaaaaaaad too so offer your claaaaaaaasics to me!
That means you too Lee G. Nobody wants those tarnished coins. They're Yucky and Old! When are you selling me that XXXXXX that you teased me with a couple months ago? That's not nice Lee G. That's baaaaaaaaad.
Will you be at FUN? I will. Sell me that bad coin!
<< <i>Yes, Classic Commems are no good! Baaaaaad coins. Baaaaaaaaaaad! Selll them now and buy moderns! Moderns are so goooooooood! Classics are baaaaaaaad!
I'm baaaaaaaaad too so offer your claaaaaaaasics to me!
That means you too Lee G. Nobody wants those tarnished coins. They're Yucky and Old! When are you selling me that XXXXXX that you teased me with a couple months ago? That's not nice Lee G. That's baaaaaaaaad.
Will you be at FUN? I will. Sell me that bad coin! Heh >>
Can't make FUN, but will be in Balt in Feb. Sorry about that earlier situation, couldn't part with it. Will have some GEM's with me in Balt. Not looking to sell, but every coin has it's price.
Comments
It is obvious that if you want to make maximum profit buy low and sell high. Everyone wants to be the perfect investor but few are and they are legends (and often liars)
To an interesting side point:
Is coin collecting for you meant to be a hobby or an investment? This is important since it affects how you value your effort put into your collection.
Rarely do we the collector value the time spent in our hobby in the cost of the coin.
If a hobby, then deduct the value of your enjoyment from the cost of the coin. It will then almost always be a good investment. If an investment, think like a businessperson and add the value of your time to the cost of the coin. Your gain may be less. Just a thought.
It may be wise to stay in the market for commems just to maintain a feel for what is going on. When it comes time to sell the dealers aren't going to do you any favors. You have to know the market.
>>>>Is coin collecting for you meant to be a hobby or an investment? This is important since it affects how you value your effort put into your collection.
Rarely do we the collector value the time spent in our hobby in the cost of the coin.
If a hobby, then deduct the value of your enjoyment from the cost of the coin. It will then almost always be a good investment. If an investment, think like a businessperson and add the value of your time to the cost of the coin. Your gain may be less. Just a thought.
>>>>
well said.....
the way i look at it ...for me....my commems are both and at some point ( as a % of personal financial assets ) it became both
some do coke....some do teaty bars....some do skiing...some do boating ect....for thier kicks....
i do none of the above ....when my buddy leaves the teatty bars all he has is a memory...i have my coins
and as far as im concerned .... i have had a blast and therefore have nothing in my commems....thus anything i get for them is free gratis
......i cant ever imagine giving some girl an oregon for a table dance
lol
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
1. Some classic commem issues have low mintages, remember not all members of the coinage population survived or are MS65.
2. Know the series. Kinda tough with both classic and modern commems due to changing designs.
3. Looks for varieties (2*2, etc.) and make sure you have solid coins, not solid plastic. (Certification is good for authenticity provided the grading is correct, if graded)
4. All it takes is a sudden change in psychology and development of young and new collectors to thin availability.
5. Consider also the state quarter collector influx as an influence on total collector population. If we were to move to a plastic, certificate, or other type of currency the value of all series' will move up.
It could be said that number five is true for all series, not just commems.
Dan
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
<< <i>I love them!! This is one of the few areas where hunting for raw gems can be very fruitful!! >>
Agreed!
I have bought a few raw commens at a decent price and have done well, but as "collector coins" I have see very few low grade coins in this series.
Modern designs stink compared to the older commens, I think the older series will shine once again in the near future.
Ray
Bruce Scher
There are great modern and ultra modern coins, like super low pop Proof Platinum "Type" coins (with mintages at 5,000 - 8,500 just like older Commems), Cheerios dollars, etc., etc., etc. If the pop rises from (2) MS68 top pop Cheerios Dollars to 6 or 8 Cheerios Dollars in MS68, IMHO, it would only mean 4 or 6 more record prices as each coin sold publicly. Another undergrade coin made the front page of Coin World this week!
SELECTIVITY is the key with moderns, just as MM points out how selectivity is vital to classic Commem collecting.
And has Bruce Scher mentioned, a special HI Commem in just the undergrade can cost close to $40,000. Meanwhile the entire 1997-2007 Proof Plat collection of 44 different type coins, with about 16 mintages under 8,500 AND A MELT VALUE OF MORE THAN $31,000!! can cost less than that single Commem. - I quoted out the 44 pc set to a board member this past week. IMHO, it's hard to beat a collection of the lowest mintage type coins the US Mint has put in ages (a few of the lowest mintage Proof Plats are in the 5,000-6,000 range) and have the protection today of nearly 80% of what you paid for your collection in the melt value of your set!! The 70's are not for everyone (more risk) - but, with a mintage of a scant 5,000 or 6,000 coins spread all over the World, there is simply only so many "perfect" coins on a number of the "selected" issues as well (and PR70DC Plat keys that are super tough to locate in the series as well - for example the 1997 PR70DC $100 has doubled in price in the Guide over the past couple years as the pop rose from 3 to 8). Selectivity again at work!
OK I've said my piece. MM please carry on with your thoughtful and thought provoking posts and Happy New Year!!
Wondercoin
The advice here has been super, and I've discussed with several numismatists the quality and 'power' of the words here. I've thought about it and yes, I did lay them all out on my desk. Much different than just pulling them out 1 at a time from a PCGS box.
I'm going to cull out the 7 from the set that are 'average for the grade' and keep the rest indefinitely. I think of what I went through to find each and every one and I'd have a hard time replacing anything similar for the money. Granted, I could do OK even in this market. I put them together slowly, raw, and was picky. I only bought a few already in plastic and they had to be nice. I had some tremendous upgrades from my 'raw' prices so in a way, I took care of the 'investment' quotient as I bought so even though they haven't plussed through the Greysheet roof, I've done well (for my level).
I'll work on replacing those 7 so that the entire set is PQ for the grade. I like that better than trying to upgrade when I like most of them anyway.
Thanks again.
Drunner
>>>MM - Stop bashing moderns in one broad brush stroke.
sorry to disagree with you but
a commem made in the 20s...30s...40s or 50s with a total made of a few thousand like boones....most btw... most w/c .... most all were not all kept back then with all the knowledge of preservation and care we have today....most were passing fancies, gifts, oddities of collectors of " stuff" and memories of the times thus most through the years have seen their " better days " when minted and it has been down hill from there for most of them....many collectors back even polished their coins when tarnished with cleaning solutions which in turn ruined them....just as many collectors with cabinets ( special display furniture with drawers ) often rubbed and dusted their coins to take off contaminants and dust further reducing it`s grade....also many were put into albums causing finger prints and slide marks and the like.....even the new age protection of the flips ( pre 1980s ) was a huge contributor to the demise of 10s of thousands of coins ( personally i think its 100s of thousands ) ....aka pvc which im sure you know have ruined so many coins ....even the Smithsonian`s own curators of yester year have ruined thousands of our nations treasures by polishing them and even lacquering them .i could go on and on
bottomline is there are indeed very limited commem coins today exceeding gem condition directly due to all of the above...
then enter the modern era where as knowledge of preservation and exactly how to do it has now reached the pinnacle of capability....and in fact a regular joe like myself can now provide exactly what a museum can for their coins to insure as much preservation as humanly possible for the future generations
the fact is the damage has already been done to most of the commems that will be done ( for all intent and purposes )....and what we have left is what we have.......period
now enter the modern era of coins.....where as all the knowledge is out there and most all are gingerly taken care of from the mint to the end user as the knowledge of preservation is now mainstream and done
mint air handling systems ( keeping dust out of the air ) are now on par with making computer chips...in fact the whole mint process is designed to make a perfect coin every time...at least that's what the guys at the mint told me when i was there.....and im not surprised....
you see.....if you dont have a gem mint 10 joe dimaggio rookie card from the 30s....i can certainly understand why......and if you dont have a gem mint 10 roger clements rookie card from the 80s i can`t understand why not
as they are as different in difficulty as night and day......so too with commems vrs moderns
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
>>>>> wish i had my old one back in 68.
sorry bruce but that coin is not a moon coin.....that coin is from another universe all together as it is absolutely out of this world!!!
if you are lucky enough to get it back ....you will of sucessfully completed a headerectomy....lol
>>>>What a coin nerd am i huh?
me too!!!!!!!!!!!!!
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
But, I wanted to point out something you might not have thought of...
Take the 2004 Proof Platinum Eagle set with a mintage of about 5,000 sets worldwide. The mint sold this set for $2500 back in the first quarter of 2005 before closing off sales. The set is now less than (3) years old and wholesales for about $7,400. So, the set has tripled in just 3 years. No let down in sight (see below).
So, yes, while these 5,000 sets do exist somewhere in the world consider that it is a mighty big world out there. The US Mint has customers from all over the globe buying these precious metal related products. Heck, I spoke with a customer recently who told me his brother in the middle east buys huge quantities of these Eagle coins and has since 1997 (and has no plans to have them ever leave his country). Think about it - a scant 5,000 Proof Plat sets from 2004 spread over the entire world - one here, one there, one held by this grandfather, one held by that grandmother, twenty in Singapore, twenty in Australia, and on and on. Do you know what would happen Greg to the price on this 2004 Proof Plat set if just (1) investor wanted to buy up (500) sets over the next year? IMHO, the set could double from here. My best guess is perhaps a grand total of (50) - (100) sets hit the CCE dealer network all of 2007!!
Now, consider, the pattern registry. Great coins those pattern coins. I have the one and only Liberty Nickel pattern set in the registry. Consider that after 4-5 years, there are a grand total of about (50) registry sets for patterns covering every denomination of pattern coin from the 1700's to date!! Compare that to about 600+ registry sets already for Sac Dollars that started in 2000!! And, (300)+ Registry sets for Platinum Eagles started in 1997. My point... a worldwide mintage of 5,000 Proof Plat coins is VERY TINY regardless of whether a portion were harmed or lost to poor storage, etc. That is why those who bought the 2004 Proof Plat sets in early 2005 have already made a 200% return on their money, while those collectors who bought MS65 gem graded classic Commems over the same 3 year period have made possibly less than a good CD at their bank (and, of course, your monster quality toned Commems have done great for you these past 3 years, because you know the system inside and out, while "average Joe" has little clue and little chance to get anywhere near your returns - right?). And, that is why the 2005 Plat Proof set with a 5,900 mintage has also returned 100% return to its buyers in less than 2 years - even buyers with virtually no coin expertise - just a keen sense that sub-6,000 mintages on type coins produced by the US Mint have great potential, especially with the growing coin collecting base in these products.
So, what % of coins, classic or modern (not counting upgrade coins that only 1%-2% of the buying public has any chance of mastering) have come close to the performance of 2004 of 2005 proof Plat coins (raw or slabbed?) -with 100%-200%+ returns in just a couple years. So, while I agree with all your analysis on classic commems having a bright future, I also see SELECT moderns potentially outperforming nearly any other sectors of the coin market IMHO.
In the meantime, I'll just keep running my same buy ad on the BST board I have been running for this entire year.. buying 2004 Proof Platinum sets at (what I believe to be) the highest level I see any coin dealer posting a buy for the set anywhere - today $7,400 (up more than 200% from Mint issue price in less than 3 years now).
Wondercoin
By the way, Wondercoin--Did you ever wonder why the Plats with their micro-mintages haven't taken off yet into the stratosphere? They're but-ugly IMO--But that's what makes this so much fun, isn't it? We can collect what we want.
Best of luck in the upcoming year all!
>>>>Super thread!
not as super as the coins pics you keep putting up :-)
also not a great as some of yur historical posts which are out of this world....btw...you need to insert a link here to them
mitch
you also have some good points as there is no doubt a new type of collector out there hunting those plats.....so keep up the good work on making a market for those guys....as i know darn well you still love a monster commem when you see one and buy them when you can...or at least thats what a dealer told me when i missed one not to long ago.....he said " sorry...mitch just beat ya to it "
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>not as super as the coins pics you keep putting up :-) >>
<< <i>also not a great as some of yur historical posts which are out of this world....btw...you need to insert a link here to them
monsterman >>
Classic Commem History
You know it! One of the problems I believe with many of the 144 pc Commems is simply that they are TOO SCARCE!! No major dealer / telemarketer can buy a position of them to offer out. In today's world, often times, one needs a large position of a product to do the proper marketing campaign (i.e. "promotion"), which can be very costly. You simply can't find a large position of the key date Arkansas, Boone, , etc. heck - these coins have mintages as low as 2,000 -3,000 or so coins and sell for next to nothing - sometimes almost as low as a modern coin that has a "pop" of 2,000! LOL.
Sure, you can buy a few here and a few there (at nearly every auction and often times the same coins recycling and recycling), but, it would be darn near impossible to buy a 500 coin position of many of the low pop coins - even though they currently sell for just a few hundred dollars per!! Hence, no major promoting of the classic Commem series and no price increases, year after year after year - further scaring away many collectors (who get a taste of the fresh kill of a smoking hot US Mint product, as nearly all the 06-W gold and silver products were, and want more).
And, again, the monster toned Commems that Greg and Bruce enjoy are simply out of the league of 95%+ of the collector base out there. Even if they had an opportunity to buy a KILLER HI in 66 (Grey Sheet bid $8k) at close to $40k (which they wouldn't because the pecking order for classic commem rarities has been long set with your names at the top of the list), nearly all couldn't step up and buy it anyway (without risking divorce from their spouse) - right? On the other hand, there is great opportunity in moderns for even the beginner numismatist who cares to study up series such as clad quarters, or MS Kennedy half dollars, or even state quarters. One can still cherrypick a high end coin out of a $1 cardboard 2x2 at a show. Heck, you can even find a $100,000+ 69-S Doubled Die Cent that cost you less than a quarter!
Wondercoin
Bruce Scher
au 55 bama
there you go again ...coming up with another monster....i look at commems like a beauty contest....and lee ....your entries are show stoppers and...i can assure you... we all marvel at
i think i can speak for bruce here when i say....can we order a 100 as we want to split em between us..........please!!!!!!!!!!
yo bruce ...why cant we order au 55 bamas that look like that ...like we order tires???? :-).........oh i forgot they are fookin rare
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Bruce
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
First Place Winner of the 2005 Rampage design contest!
Bruce Scher
did you get my email to the tirebiz address.....i have a few coins im going to sell
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
I'm baaaaaaaaad too so offer your claaaaaaaasics to me!
That means you too Lee G. Nobody wants those tarnished coins. They're Yucky and Old! When are you selling me that XXXXXX that you teased me with a couple months ago? That's not nice Lee G. That's baaaaaaaaad.
Will you be at FUN? I will. Sell me that bad coin!
Heh
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Yes, Classic Commems are no good! Baaaaaad coins. Baaaaaaaaaaad! Selll them now and buy moderns! Moderns are so goooooooood! Classics are baaaaaaaad!
I'm baaaaaaaaad too so offer your claaaaaaaasics to me!
That means you too Lee G. Nobody wants those tarnished coins. They're Yucky and Old! When are you selling me that XXXXXX that you teased me with a couple months ago? That's not nice Lee G. That's baaaaaaaaad.
Will you be at FUN? I will. Sell me that bad coin!
Heh >>
Can't make FUN, but will be in Balt in Feb. Sorry about that earlier situation, couldn't part with it. Will have some GEM's with me in Balt.