What Year Will Computers Grade Coins?
YaHa
Posts: 4,220 ✭
Hello again, what year do you think computers will start replacing human graders. Do you think it is possible. Are they doing it already with out us knowing.
I think it can happen but I am just a dweeb, what do I know.
All you need is a scanning format for the way they look at a coin now. I sit and think of some of these coin shows having MS/Pr 69 and 70 coins labeled 1 of 13,444 the first week after the coins are release, seems very quick doesn't it, At least it seems that way to me. How can humans grade that many coins plus all of the other submissions "We The People" send in. Give me your insight please. Yaha
I think it can happen but I am just a dweeb, what do I know.
All you need is a scanning format for the way they look at a coin now. I sit and think of some of these coin shows having MS/Pr 69 and 70 coins labeled 1 of 13,444 the first week after the coins are release, seems very quick doesn't it, At least it seems that way to me. How can humans grade that many coins plus all of the other submissions "We The People" send in. Give me your insight please. Yaha
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Comments
Never*
*unless it were under such strict limitations as to make the software itself pretty much useless.
<< <i>Hello again, what year do you think computers will start replacing human graders. >>
The same year a computer can tell us a Picasso is better than a Monet or worse than a Van Gogh or equal to a Modigliani. Not in our lifetime, probably never.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
Some futurists are talking about computers replacing humans for many kinds of thinking, not just coin grading, that day is getting closer. Do a search on singularity and see what some are writing about.
"Open the pod bay doors."
Computerized grading will happen when Mr Data walks among us.
The development of advanced robotic "beings" will be the next major
human development - an event far more important than even the taming
of fire or the invention of the wheel. At least 50-100 years from now,
though.
The only difference will be that robots will argue over the grade before
the humans get their chance to do the same.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
<< <i>Hello again, what year do you think computers will start replacing human graders. Do you think it is possible. Are they doing it already with out us knowing.
I think it can happen but I am just a dweeb, what do I know.
All you need is a scanning format for the way they look at a coin now. I sit and think of some of these coin shows having MS/Pr 69 and 70 coins labeled 1 of 13,444 the first week after the coins are release, seems very quick doesn't it, At least it seems that way to me. How can humans grade that many coins plus all of the other submissions "We The People" send in. Give me your insight please. Yaha >>
never
--Thomas Jefferson
Computer aided coin grading will likely be with us before pure computer grading. Coins are an old school business, with a lot of old school types dominating the business.
One decent way to go about it, is similar to how some computer chess programs work. Assemble a huge database of human standard items. In the case of coins, consensus graded coins. In the case of chess, board positions of all major chess games. With a big enough database, a computer program can cover a lot of ground very quickly. The program would likely be better at spotting identical coins than even the best expert humans. With a large enough database, and good enough imaging, this would be a decent approach, at least for computer aided grading.
All it would take to do the project is money, and time, and lot of images, or access to lots of graded coins. The technology is here today, even five to 10 year old tech could handle the task. The bar to jump is the economics and marketing. Coin grading is a small niche business with revenues flat to down, so it unlikely that the project would attract funding. More likely, it will be hobbyists or students that do this kind of project for fun, and it takes off to the point of being commercially viable. Remember, Google started as an academic project done for kicks, now look at it.
Authorized dealer for PCGS, PCGS Currency, NGC, NCS, PMG, CAC. Member of the PNG, ANA. Member dealer of CoinPlex and CCE/FACTS as "CH5"
<< <i>As soon as they can taste wine. >>
They already have a robot the can.
Link
<< <i>PCGS has used a computer to grade coins before in the past and it didn't work. Until a computer can grade judging on attributes such as eye appeal, strike quality or can detect artificial toning grading will be the sole domain of humans. >>
It did work, but wasn't cost effective. It wasn't 100%, more like 80%. It couldn't deal with toners, and only did Morgans. It cost over $1 million to get to that stage, so the plug was pulled. The economics just didn't make sense. 80% sounds terrible, but some would say the humans are only a touch better than that.
For the computer, a human still had to move the coins for imaging and that likely took more time than a human looking at coins, so again the cost/benefit factor was the killer.
Add a large database to the approach that PCGS had, and accuracy would increase another level. The downside is that identifying resubmits and assigning the same grade already given is a negative to the existing business model.
The day a program can aesthetically grade a coin is still far off. Is there a universal 0110101000101001110 that can dive into 60 power magnification and anylize metal flow paterns in an objective way to bring it all together for how a 1864-s quarter is going to stir the juices of the 17 people that want it. A computer would just have to ask every conceivable question and provide us with the best answers based on it's observations. Heck you and I can do that.
Shhhh....its already being developed as we speak.......
computer buffs and drug addicts are called users.
CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!!
By 2030 the human element will be nearly absent. A friend at the
cutting edge of AI would probably predict closer to 2080. I believe
computers will have actual intelligence before they can get AI even
close to being perfected.
<< <i>In the year 2525. CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!! >>
In 1945 cumputers had many thousands of tubes and wieghed
30 tons. It was predicted that by 1999 they would wiegh only
2 tons and fit in small room. Today we have hand held cumputers
that will fit in a shirt pocket and do as much. Think about it.
.
<< <i>
<< <i>In the year 2525. CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!! >>
In 1945 cumputers had many thousands of tubes and wieghed
30 tons. It was predicted that by 1999 they would wiegh only
2 tons and fit in small room. Today we have hand held cumputers
that will fit in a shirt pocket and do as much. Think about it.
. >>
It won't be many years until a PC has as many connections as a brain.
I suspect the internet already does and is just hooked up wrong. One
of these mornings we'll get up and the computer will already be awake.
Once you take the eye appeal factor out of coin grading, you've lost me.
<< <i>Be carefull for what you wish for, you may just get it.
Once you take the eye appeal factor out of coin grading, you've lost me. >>
With almost all other human activity obsolete we'll have plenty of time to argue about whether or not there's such a thing as eye appeal.
<< <i>Be carefull for what you wish for, you may just get it.
Once you take the eye appeal factor out of coin grading, you've lost me. >>
Once you add eye appeal to the "grade" you have such nonsense as stating that coins with wear should be graded Uncirculated, because the market dictates an Uncirculated price, not an AU price, or that bust haves graded MS66 can show rub. ( both statements from a TPG's written standards)
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Sunshine Rare Coins
sunshinecoins.com/store/c1/Featured_Products.html
<< <i>
<< <i>In the year 2525. CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!! >>
In 1945 cumputers had many thousands of tubes and wieghed
30 tons. It was predicted that by 1999 they would wiegh only
2 tons and fit in small room. Today we have hand held cumputers
that will fit in a shirt pocket and do as much. Think about it.
. >>
Right on point. I think some are afraid to admit it. The knowledge of the most intelligent in any field only contains the knowledge that we know now at this point in time.
As for eye appeal, if one can specify in their own mind what parameters determine a coin has a certain level of eye appeal a coin has, then one will be able to set the parameters within computer programming to do the same.
We are already able to do that with a lot of different programming.
It doesn't require a "positronic technology like Mr. Data" to due such things.
edited to correct grammar
<< <i>
<< <i>In the year 2525. CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!! >>
In 1945 cumputers had many thousands of tubes and wieghed
30 tons. It was predicted that by 1999 they would wiegh only
2 tons and fit in small room. Today we have hand held cumputers
that will fit in a shirt pocket and do as much. Think about it.
. >>
Me thinkie that was a spoofie on the old Zager and Evans song "In the Year 2525"
<< <i>I believe that some day, computers will be called upon to provide a *component* of a coin's overall grade based on the factors that are not subjective. But as long as coins are market graded (i.e. assigned a "value" not necessarily aligned with the objective/technical grade), computers will be only provide part of the overall assigned grade. >>
They will still have a human "finalizer" no?
<< <i>They will still have a human "finalizer" no? >>
As long as the push is for market grading, subjective factors will enter the valuation and the market will want coins priced rather than graded. So yes, this implies we will continue to see the human element.
It could be here sooner than you think. Hell I can google my home from outer space and see what kind of satellite dish is on my roof. Yaha
<< <i>On the crackout issue when someone breaks open a coin from a slab and has it regraded for a higher grade. I think a computer system would not "Miss" a grade of a coin the first time. >>
You may be right, but again -- as long as numismatics is seeking market grading -- to have coins PRICED rather than strictly graded -- some human element will decide that a VERY nice coin that a computer keeps grading AU-58 should be put in a 62 holder. And maybe the "human element" might decide to give it 63 once, at which time it's likely in a coffin.
<< <i>In the year 2525.
CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!! >>
In the year 2525
Zager and Evans
Reached #1 in July of 1969
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive they may find
In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies
Everything you think do and say
Is in the pill you took today
In the year 4545
You ain't gonna need your teeth won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you
In the year 5555
Your arms hangin' limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin' to do
Some machine's doing that for you
In the year 6565
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube
In the year 7510
If God's a comin' He oughta make it by then
Maybe He'll look around Himself and say
Guess it's time for the judgement day
In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head
He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been
Or tear it down and start again woh oh
In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive
He's takin everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothin woh oh
Now it's been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew
Now man's reign is through
But through eternal night
The twinkling of starlight
So very far away
Maybe it's only yesterday
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find......
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>As far as AT goes, humans can't figure that out either. >>
<< <i>In the year 2525.
CAC Computer Aided Coingrading!! >>
is it nostradamus that said...............................don't make any plans after 2012?
of checkers with 200 computers working every day since 1988.
The program has solved over 500 billion checker positions and
the best a human can do is draw. The task was completed in April 2007.
In view of this a coin grading program is very possible.
--Christian
<< <i>is it nostradamus that said...............................don't make any plans after 2012?
I believe this originates from a poor interpretation of Mayan calendrical practices.
Nostradamus, I believe, implied the end would be around 1996.
These dates have always come and gone in the past and 2012 will likely be the same.
Ed. S.
(EJS)
<< <i>A computer cannot tell me whether or not I like the coin, so who cares if/when computers can grade coins? Frankly, they will have merely as much relevance as slabbing companies do now. >>
It is a good thing this logic has not prevailed over the last 500 years.
We would still be riding horses and traveling the seas in sail ships.
And coins would be struck with a hand held die and hammer.
my car art & My Ebay stuff
It's being done right now with "bad" grading companies and to a lesser extent with "first tier" grading companies. The only difference is that now, when it suits our needs, we are ignoring what grades the humans assign.
Lane
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces