Nostradamus, I believe, implied the end would be around 1996.
i guess we dodged the bullet that year!!
"government is not reason, it is not eloquence-it is a force! like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master; never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." George Washington
Even today we have computers read mammograms (which ain't easy). They aren't as good as a rediologist but they do point out things that should be looked at further.
consider this, the grading via a software program, as its not the pc that does the grading, it just runs the program, would only be as good as the person who wrote the program.
translated: a software grading prog written by pee wee herman, would grade like pee wee herman
Starting with basics, computer grading would have to begin with a video of the coin being rotated ("wobbled") so all surface defects could be detected. That is not in the near future but when practical could provide a secure data base for coin identification and an adjunct to human grading.
When computers develope enough AT to be able to actually grade a coin they will be spending too much time laughing at us to bother. Rob
Modern dollars are like children - before you know it they'll be all grown up.....
<< <i>Starting with basics, computer grading would have to begin with a video of the coin being rotated ("wobbled") so all surface defects could be detected. That is not in the near future but when practical could provide a secure data base for coin identification and an adjunct to human grading.
When computers develope enough AT to be able to actually grade a coin they will be spending too much time laughing at us to bother. Rob >>
It sure would be nice if there was a progrman on the internet that could pick out and tell us if that Trade Dollar was real or bogus. I for one see a counterfit detection program that could read images of all the different coins we are finding fakes of as being marketable.
<< <i>A computer cannot tell me whether or not I like the coin, so who cares if/when computers can grade coins? Frankly, they will have merely as much relevance as slabbing companies do now. >>
<STRONG>It is a good thing this logic has not prevailed over the last 500 years. We would still be riding horses and traveling the seas in sail ships. And coins would be struck with a hand held die and hammer. </STRONG> >>
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology.
<< <i>A computer cannot tell me whether or not I like the coin, so who cares if/when computers can grade coins? Frankly, they will have merely as much relevance as slabbing companies do now. >>
<STRONG>It is a good thing this logic has not prevailed over the last 500 years. We would still be riding horses and traveling the seas in sail ships. And coins would be struck with a hand held die and hammer. </STRONG> >>
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology. >>
Current grading can't tell you what a coin is worth to you, just what it's worth to the market.
True grading which describes the coin's state of preservation will, to a large extent, be able to tell you what the coin is worth to you. Computing market value will be more difficult.
There are some aspects of grading that will prove difficult to quantify but once the project is started most of these should fall like dominoes.
Chicken, or more specifically the egg, came from Spain probably as did Columbus. Perhaps there would be fewer choices if no one wanted to try something new.
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology. >>
For the reason of clarification the original question was "what year will computers grade coins"?. This is not a question in the fineries of art but one of science and technology. Your question is ridiculous and beside the point.
In 1990, PCGS changed the industry again, introducing the ultimate grader: a computer called The Expert that was used in tandem with human graders. The Expert used a camera system to "see" each coin as a whole and to scan and scrutinize its surface section by section, noting flaws, nicks, and other signs of wear. It also looked at "light flow," or "reflective analysis," to measure the coin's depth of mirror and luster and its overall "mood." In all, the computer made about 2.2 billion calculations per coin before completing its "digital fingerprint"--storing its data on an optical disk for later use in tracking in the event it was lost or stolen.
>>
Again, combine that approach with a reference database approach, and the computer would be as good or better as most of the pro graders. Definitely be better than most replying to this thread. The computer with a reference database would eventually be much better than humans at detecting resubmits. The caveat is that the current business model of the grading companies likes resubmits.
Again, the problem isn't technology, the tech hurdles were cleared long ago. It is the economic and marketing side of the equation that holds back computerized grading.
Think back to 1990 and the computers available. That 1990 era program was reported to be 80% accurate. Computers are at least a thousand times more powerful, than 17 years ago. The problem is money. It just doesn't make economic sense for one of the big companies to go to computerized grading. That's why I think it will be a small start up, or a hobbyist project that brings it to market.
most all on this board have some good knowledge of numismatics......so put on your thinking caps
tpg grading began for one reason....to create liquidity to coins
pre tpg
for example a coin a mid range 65 and
in 64 that was worth 5,000 and in 65 was worth 35,000
in an expanding market all worked fine...but in a shrinking market the arguements started ( actually they werent arguements per se...they were a no write the check because i grade it a 64 ....so there was a problem with money flow...aka liquidity....add to that if there was a hint of a slow down everyone headed for the exits fast....the problem was the coin market was a very very dangerous place for a collector thus demand was muted and the hobby didnt grow much except for a few nurds like me
but in 1986 this was addressed with the tpg and coins became very liquid and the hobby grew to what it is today
in 1986 the "founding fathers" planed on a 100 million dollar biz plan....however as the market morphed they started the registry...i was 1 of the first back then....and the registry was run by the night clean up lady ( tongue in check )) as they didnt have a clue what a huge influence it would have...the fact is...the registry changed the once 100 million dollar biz plan into a 500 millions dollar biz plan
because.....what people call grade flation is actually the tpg giving the market what it wanted.....and that is
ranking coins...yep...ranking them..for the registry collectors....where as the grades go higher for the better coins and the mid range stay there...this has allowed the tpg to grade the same coins several times over and over again...making them richer and richer
so there you have it
so here is how a collector wins....buy great coins for the grade...aka the coin not the holder...dont just buy one tpg....if you do youve lost already.....have a good eye...have good contacts in the market place...if your not connected the " goods " will be picked over and thats what you will end up with..picked over...stay in the hobby a long time and let your purchases grow in value
now for the next subject.....i collect monster commems and the coins i love do not trade anywhere near the sheet prices...i canceled my grey sheet years ago because it was useless....the problem is pricing ....since im right near the market i know the levels...but anyone new is clueless...thus is at a very big disadvantage ...which is not condusive to cultivating a new collector and growing the hobby even fiurther
1 idea i have is...expanding the ngc star...by doing that aka...2 stars...3 stars
even though technical grading is some what technical... eye appeal is not...its more like an art and some have it and some dont...if you dont ...you cant play in numismatics very well
but by taking the present price sheet and letting the market figure out that a star** trades for double grey sheet and a star*** trades for 4 times grey sheet....then monster coins would become even more liquid as the guess work on pricing would be answered....now there is some good substance to this as most all star* coins are very nice....( please please please we have all seen some that are not so nice so dont make a big deal out of a coin here or coin there)
2 years ago or so the gurus floated trying a 100 point system...it was all targeted at one thing...making the tpg more money by taking thier 500 million dollar biz plan to a billion dollar biz plan ( go away wall street )
ok now let the cussin at me begin
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Resources and desire not withstanding computer based technical grading should be easily done today. Eye appeal could be also added by determining the characteristics that a dozen graders assign to tens of thousands of coins to increase or decrease a coins technical grade. One possible advantage of computer based grading would be consistency as long as conditions were kept constant. All coins would be computer software fingerprinted.T his would mean loss of re-submission $ to TPG. Rarely is anything good for everybody. I suspect within 20 years another serious effort to complete this task will be done.
One problem is that someone will have to tell the electronic gizmo what a ms63 is and right now two major grading companies can't always agree on what a 63 is. Secondly go to a major show and there will be several hundred Morgans in ms 63 none of which are technically alike, so which one will be the standard?
Within 10 years, I have no doubt. I, for one, believe it to be a good thing too. The TPG who develops an accurate, consistent and non bias system will prevail. All other TPG's will eventually go to the wayside. I truly believe this is the future of coin grading. Counterfeiting/altering surfaces will become a thing of the past. Book mark this post and check back around 2015/2016. You heard it here first
This is the year 2007 if none of you have no clue...Computers have been in existence for a good many years.Their software and hardware has indeed enhanced our lives and have changed it many ways.They ..(computers).. do and I stress do have the capability to grade and process a complete grading scenario of a given coin if programmed. Whether or not we choose to accept this criteria is like endorsing the CAC as another TPG. Do we need it or want it and are we willing to accept it as our way of collecting is our choice....????
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology. >>
<STRONG>For the reason of clarification the original question was "what year will computers grade coins"?. This is not a question in the fineries of art but one of science and technology. Your question is ridiculous and beside the point. </STRONG> >>
We both know that computer grading has already existed (or, more precisely, something called computer grading). The more important question is, so what? I answered that question, and called you on your resulting insult.
Comments
<< <i>Oh, those goofy hippies.....
<< <i>"If the doors of perception were cleansed, every thing would appear to man as it is, infinite."
Wm. Blake, 1791 >>
Nostradamus, I believe, implied the end would be around 1996.
i guess we dodged the bullet that year!!
translated: a software grading prog written by pee wee herman, would grade like pee wee herman
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
When computers develope enough AT to be able to actually grade a coin they will be spending too much time laughing at us to bother. Rob
Questions about Ikes? Go to The IKE GROUP WEB SITE
<< <i>Starting with basics, computer grading would have to begin with a video of the coin being rotated ("wobbled") so all surface defects could be detected. That is not in the near future but when practical could provide a secure data base for coin identification and an adjunct to human grading.
When computers develope enough AT to be able to actually grade a coin they will be spending too much time laughing at us to bother. Rob >>
I'm not laughing at anybody, just the concept.
It really might never be funny.
However he is very sensitive about being a computer
so we do not talk about it. Mums the word.
Camelot
I for one see a counterfit detection program that could read images of all the different coins we are finding fakes of as being marketable.
<< <i>
<< <i>A computer cannot tell me whether or not I like the coin, so who cares if/when computers can grade coins? Frankly, they will have merely as much relevance as slabbing companies do now. >>
<STRONG>It is a good thing this logic has not prevailed over the last 500 years.
We would still be riding horses and traveling the seas in sail ships.
And coins would be struck with a hand held die and hammer.
</STRONG> >>
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology.
Ed. S.
(EJS)
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>A computer cannot tell me whether or not I like the coin, so who cares if/when computers can grade coins? Frankly, they will have merely as much relevance as slabbing companies do now. >>
<STRONG>It is a good thing this logic has not prevailed over the last 500 years.
We would still be riding horses and traveling the seas in sail ships.
And coins would be struck with a hand held die and hammer.
</STRONG> >>
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology. >>
Current grading can't tell you what a coin is worth to you, just what it's worth to the market.
True grading which describes the coin's state of preservation will, to a large extent, be able to
tell you what the coin is worth to you. Computing market value will be more difficult.
There are some aspects of grading that will prove difficult to quantify but once the project is
started most of these should fall like dominoes.
Chicken, or more specifically the egg, came from Spain probably as did Columbus. Perhaps there
would be fewer choices if no one wanted to try something new.
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology. >>
For the reason of clarification the original question was
"what year will computers grade coins"?. This is not a
question in the fineries of art but one of science and technology.
Your question is ridiculous and beside the point.
from
http://www.answers.com/topic/collectors-universe-inc?cat=biz-fin
link
In 1990, PCGS changed the industry again, introducing the ultimate grader: a computer called The Expert that was used in tandem with human graders. The Expert used a camera system to "see" each coin as a whole and to scan and scrutinize its surface section by section, noting flaws, nicks, and other signs of wear. It also looked at "light flow," or "reflective analysis," to measure the coin's depth of mirror and luster and its overall "mood." In all, the computer made about 2.2 billion calculations per coin before completing its "digital fingerprint"--storing its data on an optical disk for later use in tracking in the event it was lost or stolen.
>>
Again, combine that approach with a reference database approach, and the computer would be as good or better as most of the pro graders. Definitely be better than most replying to this thread. The computer with a reference database would eventually be much better than humans at detecting resubmits. The caveat is that the current business model of the grading companies likes resubmits.
Again, the problem isn't technology, the tech hurdles were cleared long ago. It is the economic and marketing side of the equation that holds back computerized grading.
Think back to 1990 and the computers available. That 1990 era program was reported to be 80% accurate. Computers are at least a thousand times more powerful, than 17 years ago. The problem is money. It just doesn't make economic sense for one of the big companies to go to computerized grading. That's why I think it will be a small start up, or a hobbyist project that brings it to market.
first a few givens
most all on this board have some good knowledge of numismatics......so put on your thinking caps
tpg grading began for one reason....to create liquidity to coins
pre tpg
for example a coin a mid range 65 and
in 64 that was worth 5,000 and in 65 was worth 35,000
in an expanding market all worked fine...but in a shrinking market the arguements started ( actually they werent arguements per se...they were a no write the check because i grade it a 64 ....so there was a problem with money flow...aka liquidity....add to that if there was a hint of a slow down everyone headed for the exits fast....the problem was the coin market was a very very dangerous place for a collector thus demand was muted and the hobby didnt grow much except for a few nurds like me
but in 1986 this was addressed with the tpg and coins became very liquid and the hobby grew to what it is today
in 1986 the "founding fathers" planed on a 100 million dollar biz plan....however as the market morphed they started the registry...i was 1 of the first back then....and the registry was run by the night clean up lady ( tongue in check )) as they didnt have a clue what a huge influence it would have...the fact is...the registry changed the once 100 million dollar biz plan into a 500 millions dollar biz plan
because.....what people call grade flation is actually the tpg giving the market what it wanted.....and that is
ranking coins...yep...ranking them..for the registry collectors....where as the grades go higher for the better coins and the mid range stay there...this has allowed the tpg to grade the same coins several times over and over again...making them richer and richer
so there you have it
so here is how a collector wins....buy great coins for the grade...aka the coin not the holder...dont just buy one tpg....if you do youve lost already.....have a good eye...have good contacts in the market place...if your not connected the " goods " will be picked over and thats what you will end up with..picked over...stay in the hobby a long time and let your purchases grow in value
now for the next subject.....i collect monster commems and the coins i love do not trade anywhere near the sheet prices...i canceled my grey sheet years ago because it was useless....the problem is pricing ....since im right near the market i know the levels...but anyone new is clueless...thus is at a very big disadvantage ...which is not condusive to cultivating a new collector and growing the hobby even fiurther
1 idea i have is...expanding the ngc star...by doing that aka...2 stars...3 stars
even though technical grading is some what technical... eye appeal is not...its more like an art and some have it and some dont...if you dont ...you cant play in numismatics very well
but by taking the present price sheet and letting the market figure out that a star** trades for double grey sheet and a star*** trades for 4 times grey sheet....then monster coins would become even more liquid as the guess work on pricing would be answered....now there is some good substance to this as most all star* coins are very nice....( please please please we have all seen some that are not so nice so dont make a big deal out of a coin here or coin there)
2 years ago or so the gurus floated trying a 100 point system...it was all targeted at one thing...making the tpg more money by taking thier 500 million dollar biz plan to a billion dollar biz plan ( go away wall street )
ok now let the cussin at me begin
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Eye appeal could be also added by determining the characteristics that a dozen graders assign to tens of thousands of coins to increase or decrease a coins technical grade.
One possible advantage of computer based grading would be consistency as long as conditions were kept constant. All coins would be computer software fingerprinted.T his would mean loss of re-submission $ to TPG. Rarely is anything good for everybody.
I suspect within 20 years another serious effort to complete this task will be done.
the devil is in the details.
Whether or not we choose to accept this criteria is like endorsing the CAC as another TPG.
Do we need it or want it and are we willing to accept it as our way of collecting is our choice....????
<< <i><STRONG> </STRONG> >>
Do you consult your computer before deciding whether you like chicken or pork more? We are, after all, talking about aesthetics here, not technology. >>
<STRONG>For the reason of clarification the original question was
"what year will computers grade coins"?. This is not a
question in the fineries of art but one of science and technology.
Your question is ridiculous and beside the point.
</STRONG> >>
We both know that computer grading has already existed (or, more precisely, something called computer grading). The more important question is, so what? I answered that question, and called you on your resulting insult.
Ed. S.
(EJS)