Art auction market retreats: warning for the coin market?
Trime
Posts: 1,863 ✭✭✭
As the stock market fell , the art auction market retreated!!!!!
Does this have any predictive importance on other collectibles ( i.e. coins)
Friday November 09, 2007 (01:00 AM EST)
Will Wall Street Weakness Whack Sotheby's?
The auction house could be in for some rough times if wealthy art buyers fret about the market fallout from the credit crunch
Modern paintings such as Wheat Fields, painted by Vincent Van Gogh at the end of his life, can often have an disquieting effect on art lovers. But the well-heeled buyers at Sotheby's (BID) auction Wednesday night were likely spooked more by the rout on Wall Street just hours earlier.
"The take at the New York auction house's Impressionist&Modern Art Evening Sale on Nov. 7 came to $238.8 million, 33% below estimated proceeds. That prompted Banc of America analyst Dana Cohen to downgrade Sotheby's stock to neutral from a buy rating and to slash her target price by nearly 31% to $45 from $65 a share.
The disappointing revenue suggests some slowing in art sales, while the fact that nearly one-quarter of the lots went unsold may reflect fears related to subprime, credit, and housing issues in the U.S., Cohen said in a Nov. 8 research note. (Banc of America has provided investment banking services for Sotheby's, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates within the past 12 months and the firm and/or its affiliates owns 1% or more of Sotheby stock.)
Sotheby shares plummeted 33.7% on Nov. 8, after trading just one dollar above the bottom of its 52-week range earlier in the session"
Does this have any predictive importance on other collectibles ( i.e. coins)
Friday November 09, 2007 (01:00 AM EST)
Will Wall Street Weakness Whack Sotheby's?
The auction house could be in for some rough times if wealthy art buyers fret about the market fallout from the credit crunch
Modern paintings such as Wheat Fields, painted by Vincent Van Gogh at the end of his life, can often have an disquieting effect on art lovers. But the well-heeled buyers at Sotheby's (BID) auction Wednesday night were likely spooked more by the rout on Wall Street just hours earlier.
"The take at the New York auction house's Impressionist&Modern Art Evening Sale on Nov. 7 came to $238.8 million, 33% below estimated proceeds. That prompted Banc of America analyst Dana Cohen to downgrade Sotheby's stock to neutral from a buy rating and to slash her target price by nearly 31% to $45 from $65 a share.
The disappointing revenue suggests some slowing in art sales, while the fact that nearly one-quarter of the lots went unsold may reflect fears related to subprime, credit, and housing issues in the U.S., Cohen said in a Nov. 8 research note. (Banc of America has provided investment banking services for Sotheby's, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates within the past 12 months and the firm and/or its affiliates owns 1% or more of Sotheby stock.)
Sotheby shares plummeted 33.7% on Nov. 8, after trading just one dollar above the bottom of its 52-week range earlier in the session"
Trime
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I posted a comment in his thread. It does not bode well for the coin market.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>Board member Michigan scooped you on this already.
I posted a comment in his thread. It does not bode well for the coin market. >>
The auctions at the FUN show in early January should be a major test of the strength of the coin market.
Senior Numismatist
Legend Rare Coin Auctions
401-K mutual funds and stocks seem awfully shakey now, and there's much erosion of the old bromide that stocks will be the long-term safest investment--particularly since baby-boomer don't just have years and years of time left to wait for "corrections." If you keep your stash in cash, you're watching it erode with the visibly sinking dollar and the unreported inflation. Real estate is the usual hard asset and hedge, but we all know what's happening to real estate these days.
What's left but PMs and collectibles? I just don't believe this downturn in the art market--without knowing anything else at all about it--is a permanent or long-term phenomenon.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Gold is in a long term bull market (or to say the dollar is in a long term bear market) with no real sign of any letdown. When has the coin market retracted and folded up while gold has been in a raging longer term bull market?
Some coin auctions have only sold 66-80% of the lots. The reason for this is often dealer owned coins with high reserves or total crap with medium reserves (ie lots of fishin'). Who knows what underlines a particular art auction's outcome.
When gold has cashed in the chips...then it's time to worry. For now, gold is the flagman of the coin market.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear