What modern mainstram card will increase in value

tombo

Most people seem to think, and the past few years do seem to indicate, that vintage quality cards are the much better long term investment than modern cards. However, since money is often a deciding factor, what are the 3 best modern (1980 - present), mainstream cards graded PSA 8 or higher for investment purposes?

larryallen73

'81 Topps Joe Charboneau
'86 Donruss Jose Canseco
'89 Gregg Jeffries

These are "can't miss" investments!

thehallmark

1982 Topps Traded Ripken
1984 Donruss Mattingly
1993 SP Jeter

Yankees/HOFers in northeast cities will hold their value over time. (as long as they don't get named in performance enhancing drug discussions)

tombo

What is it about Jeter over the 94 SP Arod? Is it just the general perception that he is more respected? Or that he will be a lifelong Yankee? Because Arod will obviously have the much better career numbers.

TomGshotput

A $2 Willie Randolph card would easily triple in value if the Mets make the World Series next year (and they are the biggest spenders in the NL)

And if not it's never going to decrease in value more than $2

jamesryanbell

My picks would be:

1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens
1982 Topps Traded Cal Ripken, Jr.
1987 Donruss Opening Day Barry Bonds Error

Downtown1974

I like hallmarks list, but instead of the SP Jeter, I would add the 1984 Fleer Update Clemens.

baseballfanatic

I'M NOT AT LIBERTY TO SAY!! if i was i would tell ya. its 100% happeining & it will be a big deal to the hobby. also please dont try to goat me into saying what it is beacause i'm not. you will just have to wait but you heard about it here 1st.

jrinck

Whatever it is, it's going to have to be a PSA 10 and printed before 1987.

digicat

<< <i>'81 Topps Joe Charboneau >>



Heh, ya know, this sells for over $25 in PSA 9 on Ebay. I don't think there's been a PSA 10 yet, but I'm sure it'd probably go for over $100. Registry nuts like me keep it up there.

lawnmowerman

Tom Brady 2000 SP

cwazzy

I need to start reading these posts in their entirety before I post a smart ass comment.

Chris

perkdog

<< <i>Tom Brady 2000 SP >>



My thoughts exactly

Carew29

Interesting pick on Jose Canseco---Talk about someone who "changed" the game!! He may make it into the History books of baseball for being the biggest "Narc" on steroids.

Allen

Tom Brady Contenders Auto

Randy Moss Contenders Auto

Derek Anderson Exquisite Auto

MajorDanby

ARod's rookie, Pujols rookie and Ichiro's rookie.

Rogermnj

84 flee update clemens is not going to increase in value. I would bet anyone that in 5 years it will worth the same or less.
82 ripken is going nowhere.

Cards that have a chance to increase in value in my opinion..

All 1994 arod rookies as he approaches 600-700 Hr's will spike.

( Winning a superbowl this year and going undefeated are almost already priced into brady cards so I will pass on those for now- Maybe pick some up in the off-season)

That might be the only post 1980 card I would say will see increases over the next few years..

IN my opinion if you are going to "invest" in sports cards..

Buy HOFer and key rookies pre 1975ish in high grade for football/bask/hockey
HOF/key rookies pre 1965 in baseball in high grade.

This advice is strictly for investment purposes..

Here are my WORST investment cards:
1986 topps nolan ryan psa 10 for $3000
Any 1979-present pop1 psa common for $100+

1984,85,86 topps football psa 9,10 low pop commons.
These 3 are GREAT sets with lots of collectors...FOR NOW..

I would say the first 10 people to complete anyone of these sets in PSA 9 or better would NEVER be able to recoup the money they put into it.


My thoughts.. FWIW,
Roger-

airjoedan

Tony Romo Contenders/SP Authentic rookies

justmichael

Fot the money I would go with the 2001 SPX Ichiro autographed rookie.There are 2 reasons for my choice 1)he has a very good shot at 3000 hits and 2)Unlike every other modern athlete he does not sign everything that is put in front of him.This makes this card a winner in my book.His auto has to be one of the rarest of any modern player.I don't think he has an autographed card after 2003 or 2004.

JeremyDie1

Are we talking baseball only?

Oh. forget I said that

JackWESQ

1984 Donruss Don Mattingly

If Mattingly gets the Yankee job (better than average chance) and "leads" them to any kind of success, there will be even more interest in his 1984 Donruss card.

Also, here's a theory on when you know a card might appreciate a value.

1. Identify an active star player;
2. Check POP and confirm that the star player has literally thousands, if not tens of thousands, of cards graded;
3. Check ebay and curiously see that the player has virtually no cards up for auction.

The best example I can think of right now is Kobe Bryant. I don't have access to the PSA population, but I am certain that he has literally thousands of cards graded. Heck, in the BGS population report, Kobe has 43678 cards graded. Add in PSA, you're probably easily looking at 100,000 cards.

Yet, go to ebay and type in kobe (psa*, bgs*) and you get all of 84 items, plus another 297 on ebay express. So what, 381 items out of approximately over 100,000 cards. How crazy is that. I understand private collections, but I think this is indicative that a lot of people are holding back Kobe's cards for the "right time" to sell.

Same goes for Ichiro. According to the BGS report, he has 30017 cards. Add in PSA, you'll probably looking at 80,000 cards. Yet, on ebay ichiro (psa*, bgs*) results in 32 items.

Amazing.

/s/ JackWESQ

JeremyDie1

I say right at this moment, while still somewhat cheap;

Ryan Braun
Adrian Peterson
Brandon Roy

ripkenintheminors

The Peyton Manning '98 Contenders is already pretty high considering that a raw copy just sold for $2,499. However, copies of that card in a PSA/BGS 9 make up less than 1/3 of the current graded population with BGS being especially tough on the card.

thehallmark

<< <i>What is it about Jeter over the 94 SP Arod? Is it just the general perception that he is more respected? Or that he will be a lifelong Yankee? Because Arod will obviously have the much better career numbers. >>



I was factoring in the possibility of performance enhancers devaluing Arod's cards in the future.

Estil

Actually, I'm not convinced (with VERY rare exceptions) that ANY sports cards (singles or sets) will go up over the long term. If anything, 99% or more of them go DOWN in value. For example, compare how much sets from the 1950s-80s went for say, in the late 80s/early 90s (when sports card collecting was arguably was at its peak popularlity) to what they book for now and you'll see what I mean. And as the supply of PSA graded cards continues to increase thanks to collectors sending more cards in to "try their luck at a 10", that supply will continue to only go up which of course will lead to a decline in those values (since most who want those key cards already got 'em for the most part).

In my judgement, the only real chance at any kind of investment in sports cards is in unopened material. After all, compared to graded cards where the supply only goes up as more people submit cards, unopened material supply will only decrease as more people open them. And as long as the seller is a trustworthy source that does not search and pick through stuff, people have increasingly LOVED getting unopened packs/boxes, especially from the 70s and before. Also, factory sets can be a good investment as there are always far fewer of those than open/hand collated sets; just be sure the factory set is totally sealed the way its supposed to and that the corners aren't smashed or anything (especially for Score factory sets as their boxes were thinner/weaker than other companies). I don't think say, late 80s/early 90s stuff will really go up any (but at least it's not likely to go any further DOWN as it can't go much further down), though. Not that there's anything wrong with that stuff mind you, it's just there's just too much of it for it to gain any value.

So judging from my experience in the hobby as both a collector and historian, the only good investment source long term is vintage unopened material.

Brian48

<< <i>

<< <i>Tom Brady 2000 SP >>



My thoughts exactly >>



I surely hope so!

Allen

Brian I think the Contenders Brady will pass it. The Championship ticket you have is sweet, I wouldn't pay the $1,300 for one back in the summer. I did get a regular one in BGS 8 for $575 though.

Brian48

Yeah, I lucked out with the championship ticket. Picked it up for about $285 a couple of years ago. It's got an outside chance of getting a 9 by my estimation, but I haven't gotten to sending it in. Since the regular Contender is autographed also, I can't imagine there being that many of them either. Certainly less than the SP Authentics.

gemint

Any raw high grade modern Nolan Ryan card with a PSA 10 population of 0.

Unfortunately I can't give any insight on what will be the next hot card for a short term investment because it's all luck. The market for modern cards moves so fast that what's hot one day or month will be not the next. I think what most people are assuming and commenting on are what would be the best long term investments of modern cards. I don't know if I'd list the AROD card because of the steroid allegations. Canseco is apparently ready to unload the goods on him too. I frankly don't trust any of the modern athletes. It's impossible to know who's on drugs and who's clean.

My sentimental favorite would be Ben Roethlisberger. It would be perfectly fine by me for him to win several more superbowls for my Steelers, making his card a hot commodity.

TheCARDKid

I've saved some old Mark Murphy ads from the early, mid 90's, and its interesting how things have moved all over the place.

I agree that boxes have been a pretty decent investment. Even something like an 80 topps football box is up 50% in 10 years. Not alot. But if you take the Simms rc, or Payton, those have been flat to down for 15 years in nm-mt.

Some 80's OPC hockey boxes have doubled in 10 years (83/84 for example).

86 Fleer basketball box has doubled in 10 years.

Individual players...maybe Mattingly. He's got such a following. He must be the moved loved players of the 80's, maybe in any sport (at least as a non HOF'er). If he has any success with the Yanks, his cards could move up.

But you can lose so much money in cards, its easier to predict the downside vs upside. 89 Donruss Griffeys 10's were selling for $500-750 not that long ago. The declines from hot to cold are ruthless.

tennesseebanker

What are the Chances of pulling a Brady from a box of the 2000 Sp ? Doesn't a box go for around $250 ??

2dueces

Brian, Those are some sweet Brady cards.

I remember when packs of 86 Fleer basketball were going for $30 a pack in 89/90. 4 of us were in Vegas and stopped in a shop and he had an unopened box. We all put in $250 and had pack wars. 9 packs each. The only stipulation we had was everyone would get at least one Jordan if we pulled 4 or more. I pulled 1 and lost it in a pack war and then won one back later. We pulled 5 from the box and 6 Jordan stickers. I had 5 of the stickers, (they weren't that hot back then). I just sent in the Jordan and one sticker last week. They came back a 7 on the rookie and an 8 on the sticker. I guess I did pretty good for my $250.

DeutscherGeist

You can call me bias, but hear me out. I don't think the clemens, Puckett, Boggs or Gwynn rookie cards have any upside left. Even though Clemens in not in the HOF, his cards already sell like he is in. No one doubts he will make it, so him actually being inducted is not going to be a surprise. Sandberg has no upside in sight either. Those are excellent players, but there is so much out there and nothing in sight that will generate interest.

The 1984 Don Mattingly card is already decently priced. It does not matter if he enters the HOF or not, people still pay like he is in. He is a well liked player. THe steroids era have made him look even better. He has a chance at managing and will be in the spot light again. If he has any kind of success, his cards will jump up. If he does get elected to the HOF in 20 years, then that will cause another rise because it is a big surprise, not as predictable as with Boggs, Gwynn, etc. Mattingly's card has also been a hobby significance. Because of his card, the Upper Deck company made tamper proof cards. Mattingly's donruss card was counterfeited a lot.

1neatstuff

since i collect vintage packs i kinda agree that down the road unopened packs will climb for sure..imo..to me the 3 best 80s investment cards would be #1,cal ripken jr.topps traded,#2 1984 fleer update roger clemens,and joe montana 1981 topps rookie...

gstarling

edit

proofer2

Ok, in my humble opinion, the only way I see sportscards (vintage in particular) going down in value is if our enthusiam in sports in general declines over the years. Most cards in grade 9 or 10 (pre-1976) are actually increasing in population at a DECREASING rate. This is very important. For example, say 4 years ago, 1972 topps psa 9's were increasing at a rate of 50% per year. Currently, while the population numbers on an absolute basis are still increasing, the rate of increase has dropped to around 30%. This phenonema, over the long run has to continue, since there are only a finite amount of these cards in existence. So if the collecting population (# of collectors) will increase in the future (and it should if our population in general is increasing), and the population of high grade cards is increasing but at a decreasing rate, the demand will eventually overwhelm the supply. Sorry if this sounds kinda geeky, but it's my economics and math background at work here. I've been tracking psa populations of about 25 topps sets for the last 4 years and with the exception of a few sets, this decreasing rate phenonema is typical.

hofautos

limited print rookie (autos where they exist) of future hofers are the best choice (ie pujols, ichiro,wright)
Bowman chrome has a big following, and will likely be the best vintage of the future.

jmbkb4

1993 Refractor #61 Shane Mack.

1neatstuff

i still like pre 1987 stuff thats just me but who knows as long as we all have fun and enjoy collecting