Tim Raines and HOF
gregmo32
Posts: 2,648 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Two questions:
Do you think Tim Raines should be a HOFer?
Do you think the voters will put him in?
This should be fun.
Do you think Tim Raines should be a HOFer?
Do you think the voters will put him in?
This should be fun.
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Comments
2. Eventually.
If his claim to fame was getting on base and manufacturing runs by stealing bases, his career OBP shows he was 132nd all time.
302nd all time in batting average.
326th all time in OPS.
256th all time in OPS+.
There's a reason he hasn't been inducted - he's not a HoFer.
I found the quote from Neyer-
Tim Raines is absurdly qualified for the Hall of Fame. He was good enough to play in the majors when he was 21, and when he was 41, and he played long enough to collect 2,605 hits. He stole 808 bases and was caught stealing only 146 times. Generally, we (fans, writers, Martians) overestimate the impact of the running game, but when you steal that many bases with that kind of success rate, you're adding an impressively large number of runs to the ledger. Raines routinely posted on-base percentages among the best in the National League, and during the 1980s he ranked -- with Mike Schmidt and Dale Murphy -- among the three best players in the league.
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<< <i>Ax, there are 2 major problems with your assessment of Raines.
1) You're comparing across eras and Raines is on the unfortunate end of the era he played in so your simple analysis does not give him the due credit he deserves. >>
Well if that's what you want to do, how many times did Raines finish in top 3 in OBP? Three, out of a 23 year career.
<< <i>2) Probably more importantly, everyone throws OPS numbers around like it's the end all. While I agree it is the single best stat, it has 2 MAJOR flaws in my opinon. One is double counts the players accomplishment because much of what in the OBP is again included in the SLG. Two, it does not take into account SBs in its measurement. If Net Steals (SBs - CSs) were included in the OPS calculations (as much as a walk would be which would be fair), then his OPS numbers would be SIGNIFICANTLY higher. I mean SIGNIFICANTLY. >>
No way a stolen base is as valuable as a walk.
And honestly, if stolen bases is your sole argument for his induction, then that alone should tell you he doesn't belong.
It's not the hall of very good, it's the hall of fame. Let's not water it down any more than it already has been.
<< <i>So Ax, just to be clear, lets say Ichiro winds up having 5 more years EXACTLY like his average career year thus far but doesn't get to 3,000 hits, should he get in? >>
Yes, absolutely, as he has DOMINATED the league, not just been a so-so guy.
Throw in an MVP award, countless 200 hit seasons, the single season hit record, etc. etc and yes, he's a hall of famer and it won't even be close.
It's not the hall of very good, it's the hall of fame. Let's not water it down any more than it already has been. >>
I agree, but Raines would not water it down. He was better than Brock. and virtually as good as Gwynn. I agree that we should not put "A"in just because he's as good as "B", who is in already. However, Gwynn was a first ballot inductee with about 98% of the vote. Raines is perhaps a hair below Gwynn, but he deserves to be in. Bill James' Win Shares book has Gwynn tied for 46th all-time; Raines is 53rd. Players ranking behind Raines include Seaver, Joe Dimaggio, Carew, Clemente, Berra, Nolan Ryan (well behind) and a host of other HOFers.
<< <i>So the fact that he would have an OPS+ LESS than Raines for an entire career and that his SBs would be substantially less somehow would make him a more worthy candidate?
Also, Ichiro has had a high BA to be sure but he has NEVER 'dominated' ANYTHING in the mind of any knowledgeable fan. >>
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Yes an MVP isn't dominating.
Having the highest career batting average of any active player isn't dominating.
4 time league leader in hits.
Yeah, he's not dominating anything, right chump?
Raines' drug use was self destructive, not performance enhancing, like McGwire's. Not an accurate analogy, IMO.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Raines was a phenomenal player, one of the best NL players for a decade. Solid hitter, superb baserunner and got on base a lot via the walk. I don't know if he gets in the HOF, but he's gotta be top 5 career wise on SB and top 50 for runs scored.
<< <i>
Raines' drug use was self destructive, not performance enhancing, like McGwire's. Not an accurate analogy, IMO. >>
You're right that it isn't accurate. Using drugs destructively is far worse than using them productively, so it seems it would be treated even more harshly by the voters
<< <i>The hits and the average are all included in an OPS+ evaluation so don't try to segregate them and make them something extra when they're not. You referenced OPS 3 times in declining the reason why Raines should not get in, which you seem totally convinced of. Yet, even assuming Ichiro can hold up this pace (which would be a BIG assumption), Ichiro would fail to surpass Raines OPS numbers compared to their respective leagues so how is one dominating and the other not? Also, once again, Raines was a MUCH better base stealer. As for the MVP season, that is one year. Roger Maris got 2 MVPs and is not in the HoF. So you reaching there big time. >>
He wasn't a 'much better base stealer', they both have success rates near 80%...Raines just attempted more. The era we're in now has far less need for stolen bases, so much fewer are attempted. Please don't mistake more stolen bases with more ability. Look at success percentages - they are nearly even.
Why did I bring up Ichiro's MVP award? Not to say it would be the only reason he makes it in, but to show you Ichiro has shown he can dominate the era he plays in. The only thing Raines dominated in was stolen bases. Sorry, stolen bases alone don't get you into the hall.
It's apparent you don't want to look at numbers, you'd rather go with your 'guts' and make decisions.
Raines, Hall of Very Good? Sure. Hall of Fame? Not in a million years.
On the contray, I don't think there's any question that the voters consider using performace enhancing drugs as a much worse offense than using drugs (or alcohol for that matter) destructively.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
Raines was a phenomenal player, one of the best NL players for a decade. Solid hitter, superb baserunner and got on base a lot via the walk. I don't know if he gets in the HOF, but he's gotta be top 5 career wise on SB and top 50 for runs scored. >>
Runs scored (and RBI for that matter) are more a function of the team around you than your abilities.
Stolen bases are the product of a long gone era...with the bigger power numbers of today's era, the stolen base has been relegated to the back burner.
<< <i>Please don't mistake more stolen bases with more ability >>
But you make the Hall-of-Fame for what you do, and what Raines did was steal more bases. Each stolen base does help give his team a better chance of scoring a run, albeit a smaller chance than a hit or walk
And Ichiro didn't deserve his MVP, OPS+ isn't close to everything, but everything Ichiro did that year did not come close to making up the difference between 202 and 127
<< <i>
But you make the Hall-of-Fame for what you do, and what Raines did was steal more bases. >>
He made outs at about the same rate attempting to steal bases as Ichiro does. Raines wasn't necessarily a *better* basestealer, he simply had more chances to do so....doesn't mean he was better at it.
<< <i>Each stolen base does help give his team a better chance of scoring a run, albeit a smaller chance than a hit or walk >>
And the tiny amount of additional runs that 70 or so stolen bases adds per year is hardly HoF material.
<< <i>And Ichiro didn't deserve his MVP, OPS+ isn't close to everything, but everything Ichiro did that year did not come close to making up the difference between 202 and 127 >>
Ichiro led his Mariners to a record 116 wins. Yeah, I think he was *most* valuable.
<< <i>
<< <i>Having the highest career batting average of any active player isn't dominating. >>
You bring down Batting Average as an important stat more than anyone on the board. Again, proving the point that you argue with everything just to draw attetnion. We are all impressed.
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
http://sportsfansnews.com/author/andy-fischer/
Raines a very nice player, had a solid career, was never the guy who dominated his era in anything other than stolen bases.
Stolen bases are a thing of the past in today's game, since so many more guys hit for so much more power, the risk involved in attempting to steal bases is not worth it. That would explain why so few stolen bases are attempted now. You honestly think that someone with Ichiro's speed and baserunning ability couldn't steal 100 bases if he wanted to? Of course he could, but the game has changed to where stolen bases are no longer as necessary as they once were. Funny thing, though, is that Ichiro's stolen bases per 162 games is 39, Raines' was only 52. Talking 13 a year? Wow, what an amazing difference!!!!
Throw in Ichiro's nearly flawless defense and significantly better bat and you have a player destined for the hall. Raines? Not so much.
if you walk, then steal 2nd, your certainly helping your own cause though
<< <i>On the contray, I don't think there's any question that the voters consider using performace enhancing drugs as a much worse offense than using drugs (or alcohol for that matter) destructively. >>
You may be right. But when baseball went so many decades without instituting any drug policy it is stupid to consider drug use enough of an offense to not make the Hall-of-Fame. Yet the writers went ahead and did so anyway. So who knows what they'll do
<< <i>And the tiny amount of additional runs that 70 or so stolen bases adds per year is hardly HoF material
<< <i>
When coupled with other offensive abilities close to players like Gwynn and Molitor it most certainly is. Those extra steals (at a better rate, too) is worth about 10 extra runs a year. Over a 2500 game career, that certainly is a very good benefit.
Raines definitely was a better base stealer. To say he wasn't simply because they had similar success rates would be like saying Bob Hamelin was a better homerun hitter than Stan Musial because he hit them at a higher rate
<< <i>Ichiro led his Mariners to a record 116 wins. Yeah, I think he was *most* valuable
<< <i>
And many others think his teammates were more valuable. . .
You are entitled to make an uninformed, ignorant, BS argument. You are not entitled to pull numbers out of your butt. Raines stole nearly 500 more bases than Gwynn, but was caught only 15-20 more times. Raines also grounded into more than 100 fewer DPs than Gwynn. I realize that win shares are not perfect, but I trust the opinion of a man who has devoted most of his adult life to studying the game over someone who believes that Gwynn and Raineshad about the same SB%.
<< <i>
You are entitled to make an uninformed, ignorant, BS argument. You are not entitled to pull numbers out of your butt. Raines stole nearly 500 more bases than Gwynn, but was caught only 15-20 more times. Raines also grounded into more than 100 fewer DPs than Gwynn. I realize that win shares are not perfect, but I trust the opinion of a man who has devoted most of his adult life to studying the game over someone who believes that Gwynn and Raineshad about the same SB%. >>
What are you talking about? I was comparing Ichiro and Raines...where did Gwynn come from?
Raines's best five years in situational Batter Runs/Stolen base runs were 49,43,41,36, and 36, 205 total.
He had a best five years of 205 and a career total of 450 for situational batter/stolen base runs. Other 80ish guys....
Murray.......260/515
Brett .........270/505
Schmidt......246/560
Henderson.258/660
Boggs........241/403
Winfield.....235/460
Raines........205/450
There are a few things that alter those figures, but not enough to change the general idea. I wouldn't cement them, but you get the picture.
The turf players, and Henderson had ballparks that inflates those figures a bit. They are all park adjusted, but Fenway hurts more than it should...as this metric gives credit to the batter for how often base runners advanced. Memorial Stadium really supressed this aspect and hurts Murray(For ex, it was harder to drive in a runner for 1B on a double at Memorial. Murray gets deducted for that and it is a ballpark tendency). Fenway hurts Boggs to a lesser extent. So the only players that are lower than they should be are Murray and Boggs, everyone else is helped to a similar degree. I didn't include some guys who played a lot in this current era, as this metric isn't great for cross era's. Gwynn's career was not nearly as good in the 80's as it became in the inflated era.
The Kings of the era are, Schmidt, Henderson, Murray, and Brett. Raines does fall short of every one of them in terms of peak, and that is usually the perception of people. I can look at the next best five years to get a better idea, but I don't have the time, and I think it mirrors that above anyway.
You got guys like Yount and Ripken who get there on a combination of defense and offense. All those guys are corner guys, and only Schmidt really has the defensive boom to add to his arsenal.
Is Raines good enough? He could be. He looks to be the best of the remaining eligibles of that era, though some guys are extremely close to him that aren't in either, including a fellow druggie
The Ichiro/Raines stolen base sidebar....
1) Tim Raines added approximately 90 runs above the average player via the stolen base. It is a case of semantics when one says a piddly few or the other said it made a difference. It is 90 runs above average, plain and simple, and that includes the value of the base/out situatin of the stolen base. Ichiro has added appx 24 stolen base runs above average.
2) There is a bit of era bias working against Ichiro when looking from the All Time perspective for SB (ask Willie Mays
3) Raines stole 529 bases on turf, and just 279 on grass fields. He was helped a bit there because of his environment. So Raines has a slight edge in the overall picture via the Stolen Base. I wouldn't be uncomfortable saying in the end he will have probably a 20 run value lead in that department.
Ron
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Gossage gets in as does Blyleven and possibly Dawson, I say no to Edgar and Jim Rice, just not going to happen.
He is on my team.
Edited to add: Raines is on my team before Ichiro and Suziki is a great player, but Pat Burell gets on base more often.
<< <i>Tim Raines is a hands down Hall of Famer. One of the top five players of the 1980s, arguably the second best leadoff man in the past 40 years( next to Henderson). Small market, black, Canada, drugs all work against him.
He is on my team.
Edited to add: Raines is on my team before Ichiro and Suziki is a great player, but Pat Burell gets on base more often. >>
One of the top 5 players of the 80's? Really? What about Boggs, Gwynn, Ripken, Mattingly, Strawberry, Brett, Murray, Molitor, Yount, Dawson, Henderson, Schmidt, Murphy, Sandberg, Fisk, Carter, O.Smith, Winfeild, Puckett,R.Jackson, Rose...and that's not even counting pitchers!!
Raines was good, real good, but let's be real - he's not Hall Of Fame.
And against Ichiro? Please! Let's compare lifetime batting avg. - How many MVPs did Raines win? Ichiro was also Rookie Of The Year, also set single season hits record. And he's not done yet!
I have no disrespect for Tim Raines, and let's not limit him to being a 80's player either as he was very productive up thru the mid - 90's, (I remember him being a big part of the '96 Yankees) all I'm saying is you can't put everyone in the Hall and in my very humble opinion he falls short.
Raines Gwynn
ABs 8872 9228
Walks 1330 790
Sac 39 31
Sac Fly 76 85
HBP 42 24
PAs 10359 10158
SB 847 319
CS 146 125
GIDP 142 260
RS 1571 1383
RBI 980 1138
Total 2551 2521
OBP 0.385 0.388
SLG 0.425 0.459
OPS 0.81 0.847
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With the numbers that MARKJ111 put up, its compelling.
But....
The Hall Of Fame isnt ALWAYS about JUST STATS.
They look at stats with mastering the game or position.
Even though Raines stats are favorable in many ways to Gwynn's stats. Gwynn mastered hitting. OBP, walks, runs, are a very valuable indeed. But MASTERING the contact of a baseball is what got the % of votes for the HALL. 7 batting titles, .338 Avg. Thats what makes him miles apart in many eyes.
Many others contributed to their teams sucess for the playoffs, and World Series. Many will never come close to getting in. Tim Raines was a huge talent. Rickey Henderson killed his legacy. When you steal almost as many bases as Cobb. That crazy. But when the guy next to you has 1500, it kind of takes away from Raines in the eyes of many.
I think that with todays voting, and all the talent out there now. You will only get in if its a " NO BRAINER" for Hall voters.
If a guy like Thome is considered a maybe right now. That shows you how different things are know. He stacks up with many legends of the game. Power hitters that is. Doubles and Slugging % are awesome.
With around 20 guys playing right now that are considered locks, or soon to be locks. Raines may be left out because of his timing, and the new generation out there right now.
Ramirez, Thomas, Thome, Delgado, Chipper, Pujols, Helton, A-Rod, Jeter, Guerrero, Griffey, Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell, Soriano, Sosa, are in or on their way in or in a few more years. Most will say. Thats a new tough standard.
Not to mention Reyes, Suzuki and all the really new guys who havnt even played the 10 year min requirement.
Heres the funny thing though. I think he's a victim of the 80's. He played in a decade when numbers were bland in many ways. .300 avg, 30 homers, 100 R.B.I. That was an all star with triple crown potential. Now its Posada batting 8th for the Yankees!!!!
Thats why I love the 80's. Advantage Pitchers!!! Batters really had to EARN it. All the way, every day. 40 Homers won you a Homerun title. 109 R.B.I. won that too. If you werent Boggs, Gwynn, you didnt win much either. Great gloves were much more respected too.
Thats just me though.
Yeah, he's not dominating anything, right chump?
Why anyone replies to this guy (anymore) is beyond me.
name calling is so last year...............
lets all move and and have spirited debates and ignore those that insist on lowering the bar here.
JMHO
Yes Raines does belong in the HOF. knowledgable fans know that he does and will one day grace the hall.
Steve
Wow I am almost at 10k
good related article on him -- his vote totals are increasing but have a long way to go -- from 37.5%
Raines HOF argument
Erik