Jeter-Gold Glove
markj111
Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
John Dewan's Stat of the Week, Septmeber 27, 2007
Should Derek Jeter win his third consecutive Gold Glove?
Septmeber 27, 2007
Short answer: Are you kidding me?
Fact: Derek Jeter had the second worst plus/minus figure at shortstop in 2005 at -34.
Fact: Derek Jeter had the second worst plus/minus figure at shortstop in 2006 at -22.
Fact: Derek Jeter is tied for the worst plus/minus figure at shortstop thus far in 2007
at -34.
Fact: Virtually every other fielding metric shows similar results.
But Jeter won Gold Gloves in 2005 and 2006. And he’ll probably win again this year. As my good friend Carmen Corica used to say, “Don’t let facts cloud the issues.”
The issue is that Derek Jeter is the best shortstop in baseball. The first shortstop I would pick in all of baseball to play for my team this year or next year would be Derek Jeter (though I would have to consider putting A-Rod back at short as well). Jeter is great offensively and has tremendous leadership skills. But he is not one of the best defensively. The managers and coaches who vote for the Gold Gloves have a hard time separating the best defensive shortstop from the best shortstop.
Here are some more facts to cloud this year’s issues. These are the shortstop plus/minus leaders and trailers at shortstop as we head into the final days of the season:
Leaders
Name Plus/Minus
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies +34
John McDonald, Blue Jays +26
Omar Vizquel, Giants +19
Jason Bartlett, Twins +19
Tony F. Pena, Royals +18
Trailers
Name Plus/Minus
Derek Jeter, Yankees -35
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins -35
Brendan Harris, Devil Rays -19
Michael Young, Rangers -15
David Eckstein, Cardinals -15
The Fielding Bible Awards are our alternative to the Gold Gloves. Adam Everett won our first Fielding Bible Award at shortstop last year and was leading in plus/minus by a wide margin at the time of his injury this year. But despite having played only about a third of the season, he just misses the top five list above at +17.
The Fielding Bible Awards are announced on November 1 in the Bill James Handbook. My first-place vote at shortstop will be going to last year’s runner up to Everett, Omar Vizquel. Troy Tulowitzki will be high on my list as well, maybe even ranked second, but I want to see if his defense is for real next year.
Derek Jeter didn’t make the top ten in the Fielding Bible Awards voting last year and I predict he won’t make it again. He’s certainly not in my top ten when I submit my ballot.
I developed the Plus/Minus System in my book The Fielding Bible about a year ago as a way to measure defensive ability. A number around zero indicates average. If a player is +5, it means he has handled five more plays than could be expected from an average player at his position. A figure of -3, for example, would indicate handling three fewer plays than the average player. For more on the Fielding Bible Awards and the Plus/Minus System, go to www.FieldingBible.com
Should Derek Jeter win his third consecutive Gold Glove?
Septmeber 27, 2007
Short answer: Are you kidding me?
Fact: Derek Jeter had the second worst plus/minus figure at shortstop in 2005 at -34.
Fact: Derek Jeter had the second worst plus/minus figure at shortstop in 2006 at -22.
Fact: Derek Jeter is tied for the worst plus/minus figure at shortstop thus far in 2007
at -34.
Fact: Virtually every other fielding metric shows similar results.
But Jeter won Gold Gloves in 2005 and 2006. And he’ll probably win again this year. As my good friend Carmen Corica used to say, “Don’t let facts cloud the issues.”
The issue is that Derek Jeter is the best shortstop in baseball. The first shortstop I would pick in all of baseball to play for my team this year or next year would be Derek Jeter (though I would have to consider putting A-Rod back at short as well). Jeter is great offensively and has tremendous leadership skills. But he is not one of the best defensively. The managers and coaches who vote for the Gold Gloves have a hard time separating the best defensive shortstop from the best shortstop.
Here are some more facts to cloud this year’s issues. These are the shortstop plus/minus leaders and trailers at shortstop as we head into the final days of the season:
Leaders
Name Plus/Minus
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies +34
John McDonald, Blue Jays +26
Omar Vizquel, Giants +19
Jason Bartlett, Twins +19
Tony F. Pena, Royals +18
Trailers
Name Plus/Minus
Derek Jeter, Yankees -35
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins -35
Brendan Harris, Devil Rays -19
Michael Young, Rangers -15
David Eckstein, Cardinals -15
The Fielding Bible Awards are our alternative to the Gold Gloves. Adam Everett won our first Fielding Bible Award at shortstop last year and was leading in plus/minus by a wide margin at the time of his injury this year. But despite having played only about a third of the season, he just misses the top five list above at +17.
The Fielding Bible Awards are announced on November 1 in the Bill James Handbook. My first-place vote at shortstop will be going to last year’s runner up to Everett, Omar Vizquel. Troy Tulowitzki will be high on my list as well, maybe even ranked second, but I want to see if his defense is for real next year.
Derek Jeter didn’t make the top ten in the Fielding Bible Awards voting last year and I predict he won’t make it again. He’s certainly not in my top ten when I submit my ballot.
I developed the Plus/Minus System in my book The Fielding Bible about a year ago as a way to measure defensive ability. A number around zero indicates average. If a player is +5, it means he has handled five more plays than could be expected from an average player at his position. A figure of -3, for example, would indicate handling three fewer plays than the average player. For more on the Fielding Bible Awards and the Plus/Minus System, go to www.FieldingBible.com
0
Comments
<< <i>The managers and coaches who vote for the Gold Gloves have a hard time separating the best defensive shortstop from the best shortstop. >>
This sentence says it all in a nutshell.
The "best" overall at a position (except pitcher) are usually seen as the best because of their offense, and they already have an award for that -- the Silver Slugger. Only rarely have players been so dominant defensively (Ozzie Smith comes to mind) that they were considered among the best and their greatness comes almost exclusively from their glove.
The Gold Glove should be all about defense and not have offensive production (or the famous so-called "intangibles" which Jeter supposedly oozes from all his pores) factor into it. The simple fact is that Jeter is nowhere near the best defensive SS in the league.
Have you compared your stats to actual chances, errors and FP of past seasons?
The gold glove long ago stopped being about defense and started becoming a popularity contest. Jeter will win another gold glove, and will do so even though he doesn't deserve it (again).
I disagree, it certainly doesnt tell the whole story.
So true.
Rafael Palmeiro
1999 Gold Glove Winner
1999 34 TEX AL
DH 135 games
1B 28 games
<< <i>LOL see what steroids will do! they will make DH's win Gold Gloves! >>
Yeah those voters overdoing it on steroids sure do make crazy decisions!
If the worst fielding players can win fielding awards, then the whole thing is meaningless.
And, Jeter (here we go again) is also not the best SS in baseball. Before his strange second-half collapse this season, I would have picked Reyes, but as it stands now, the best SS in baseball is Jimmy Rollins. And, it's really not even that close.
Jeter is also not even the best SS on his own team (obviously), but I also think Tejada and Michael Young rate higher. Not to mention, if I was building a team today, I would certainly take someone like Hanley Ramirez, JJ Hardy, or Tulowitzki over him. Jeter continues to be over-rated because of the uniform he plays in, and this unfortunately will never change.
He's using his own calculations and variables based upon his opinion of importance.
Just because someone says the word "fact" 6 or so times doesn't make his numbers any more factual.
The values aren't his opinions, they are based on how difficult each ball put in play fared.
It doesn't take a degree in rocket science, however, to see that Jeter is far form the best defensive shortstop the years he's won his gold gloves.
<< <i>I'm not sure how factual his "facts" are.
He's using his own calculations and variables based upon his opinion of importance.
Just because someone says the word "fact" 6 or so times doesn't make his numbers any more factual. >>
That is a Fact! And I agree.
<< <i>The values aren't his opinions, >>
Never said he was.
<< <i>He's using his own calculations and variables based upon his opinion of importance. >>
As to the book review you provided:
<< <i>So a player gets credit if he makes a play on a ball that at least one other player at his position missed that season, and loses ground if he misses a ball that at least one other player at his position made. Each player starts with a score of zero, and his final score is the sum of all their plusses and minuses over the season, rounded to the nearest integer. >>
<< <i>The values aren't his opinions,
Never said he was.
He's using his own calculations and variables based upon his opinion of importance. >>
There's some sort of disconnect going on here...either they are his opinion or they aren't...you said at first they were his opinion, then said he wasn't using, them used your original quote of 'his opinion'.
heh
I suspect dip$hit clowns like markmya$$hurts who is a jealous sole because the Braves have completely underachieved the past 15 years will still be barfing from the mouth about this nonsense as Jeter approaches MANY seemingly unapproachable milestones down the road. Seriously ..... Derek Jeter plays day in and day out a SOLID shortstop. Where is the outrage for fat slobs like David Ortiz and the like who couldn't POSSIBLY PLAY a defensive position in these arguements. They like to cry about MVP's they should have won ..... and for WHAT. A one dimensional effort in the game?
SPARE ME.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
nobody's trying to 'tear down' jeter, simply saying that the gold glove system is flawed and jeter hasn't been deserving of his awards.
<< <i>softy-
nobody's trying to 'tear down' jeter, simply saying that the gold glove system is flawed and jeter hasn't been deserving of his awards. >>
Come on Brian. Its the SAME guys all the time. There is NO DOUBT an effort to tear down Jeter. This clown mark with all of the penises following his name is ALWAYS doing this with Jeter in mind when he posts his drivel. Ctsox ALWAYS chimes in with the anti Jeter slanted stuff, and you Brian have done the same for so long. Lets be real for a second. A Shortstop plays OFFENSE AND DEFENSE. The gold glove has apparantly become the rallying cry for the anti Jeter crowd as it becomes more and more evident that arguing against his offense and base running is just plain foolish. Not to mention that the players mentioned in marktheDUMB bravesfan thread would EVER be mentioned as "TOP SHORTSTOPS" when offense, base running and leadership come into play.
This thread and so many of mark THE DUMB Braves fan is hor$esh!t
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Give Jeter another gold glove. We need him at short.
Soren, please, don't make stupid comments without ANY substance behind them. If you think the Yankees lost any post season series because of Derek Jeter's play at shortstop then you don't have a clue about the Yankees or Derek Jeter. Its just more hot air from the peanut gallery who wouldn't know a great ball player if he landed in your company softball league.
Derek Jeter plays a SOLID shortstop. Not the best with the glove and certainly not the worst. He boots balls more then the guys with glove talent ONLY but he sure as hell plays a SOLID shortstopn.. This theory Soren has about Jetermoving to centerfield is just looney tunes.
Lets go Jeter haters ...... bring me more of your slop .....
edited to say .... Soren's comment about double play balls is just DUMB. DUMB DUMB DUMB. Jeter turns 2 just as well as anybody. This is what suck$ about message boards like this. ANYBODY can just say ANYTHING no matter how wrong and baseless their comments are.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
<< <i>
edited to say .... Soren's comment about double play balls is just DUMB. DUMB DUMB DUMB. Jeter turns 2 just as well as anybody. This is what suck$ about message boards like this. ANYBODY can just say ANYTHING no matter how wrong and baseless their comments are.
Sure he turns two well. He just doesn't do it that frequently.
I just can't resist poking you guys. At least your guys are still playing, so cheer up. Jetes is still the third or fourth best defensive shortstop.....on the Yanks playoff roster.
Jerry, am I right that Rico Petrocelli is the ONLY Sox shortstop from the beginning of Sox time to hold down this position for 10 years? I think I am ...... and he couldn't get into the same room as Jeter's jock. Nope .......... lunacy this is.
Edited to add that Jeter is a BETTER fielder then Rico the man was
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I realize picking on Jeter's defense is like saying I'd throw the playmate of the year out of bed for having fake boobs.
Doesn't mean I won't keep picking on Jeter's glove.
<< <i>At least I got the Vikes to cheer for.... Gophers Hockey does start a new season in a week, so all is not lost.
I realize picking on Jeter's defense is like saying I'd throw the playmate of the year out of bed for having fake boobs.
Doesn't mean I won't keep picking on Jeter's glove. >>
alrighty then, and thank you for that addmission. I guess Jeter's solid but not great defense is the ONLY thing left to pick on a truly GREAT ballplayer. I want to hear from Jerry about the abysmal shortstops that have littered Fenway. I respect Jerry for alot of reasons ..... mainly because he is as rabid a Sox fan as I am a Yankee fan. mark penis penis penis I don't care about. Brian Shearon? ehhh .... he just hates us....... but Jerry? Yeah.... I want to hear from him.
These are guys who claim Jeter would not be "known" if he played in Kansas City when he has had a career that BLOWS AWAY any AND ALL shortstops that have EVER played for a "storied" franchise like the Boston Red Sox? And his career is FAR from over.
Ahhhh... I love this
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Red Sox SS better than Jeter? How long have you got?
Off the top of my head, how about Johnny Pesky? Lifetime .307 hitter, its commonly held among many baseball fans that his three years of military service cost him a place in Cooperstown. In another example of Yankee bias, you have Phil Rizzuto in the Hall, while in 10 seasons, Pesky had 1,455 hits in 4,745 at-bats for a lifetime .307 average. Rizzuto, in more than 1,000 extra at-bats had just 133 more hits for a .273 career average.
Rick Burleson was a defensive standout (I believe his record for most double plays in a season turned by a SS still stands) but admittedly didn't play as long as your Captain Intangibles. You also seem to have forgotten Rico Petrocelli, Hall-Of-Famer Joe Cronin, and going way back - Everett Scott, who played on three Red Sox World Championship teams and led the AL in fielding percentage for eight straight years. Have you already forgotten Nomar? I admit, a lot of Sox fans seem to have forgotten him, but he had far superior numbers to Captain Intangibles during the 10+years he played in Boston.
Also, you have Luis Aparicio, Lou Boudreau, and Vern Stephens...but I won't count them, as they seem to have had their best years either before or after Boston.
Jeter does have his own cologne, though - so I guess that is worth a few points.
<< <i>Sorry for the delayed response, I was watching that crazy Rockies-Padres game.
Red Sox SS better than Jeter? How long have you got?
>>
We're still talking defense only right?
<< <i>
<< <i>Sorry for the delayed response, I was watching that crazy Rockies-Padres game.
Red Sox SS better than Jeter? How long have you got?
>>
We're still talking defense only right? >>
That's primarily what I was referring to, yes.
Johnny Pesky .307 hitter.
Derek Jeter .317 hitter
Of Johnny Pesky Jerry says "its commonly held among many baseball fans that his three years of military service cost him a place in Cooperstown"
ummmmmm commonly held opinions of Red Sox fans Jerry? ummmm yeah.
Derek Jeter has out homered, out stole bases, out hit for average, out DOUBLED, out RBI'ed, and MATCHES his fielding %.
Pesky is FLUSHED down the toilet in comparison to Jeter.
Rick Burelson ....
Rick Burelson the .273 hitter? Rick Burelson who has just .004 better fielding % then Jeter? Rick Burelson who couldnt PRAY to steal as many bases as Jeter? Rick Burelson whos OBP absoultley BLOWS compared with Jeter? Rick Burelson who is not ONE THIRD of the home run hitter Jeter is? Rick Burelson whos slugging % compared with Jeter is SO SMALL YOU CAN'T SEE IT, Rick Burelson the guy who lasted just EIGHT decent seasons? Ohhhhhhh I don't think so Jerry. Burelson is FLUSHED DOWN THE TOILET
I "have not forgotten" Rico Petrocelli. Just look at his numbers. No arguement needed ANYWHERE.
Joe Cronin? HAHAHAHAHAHAH Jeter's fielding numbers BLOW AWAY Cronin's ...... as do Jeter's Offensive numbers...... Cronin? Down the chute you go .....
Everett Scott ..... Jeters career fielding numbers are BETTER! Do I need to go any further?
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
You really need to do research before you post. Those guys are not in the same league as Jeter. Its NOT EVEN CLOSE.
next?
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
See, the problem is that the LAST possible space for air for the anti Jeter guy is in the defense corner. BUT ...... he stacks up VERY WELL with names that have been just thrown around ..... when the realization FINALLY came up that debate CAN NOT be won.
So, here we are, in the Jeter tear down circle .... wanting to JUST TALK ABOUT DEFENSE.
Jerry, how is David Ortiz's defense?
unreal .......
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
<< <i>
<< <i>Sorry for the delayed response, I was watching that crazy Rockies-Padres game.
Red Sox SS better than Jeter? How long have you got?
>>
We're still talking defense only right? >>
oh yeah, yes yes yes. We can now ALMOST critisize Jeter now that we stripped away everything but defense. Jerry, your guys don't even stack up with Jeter in that department. Except for Burleson
Topics that limit telling the real story of a player are HORSE$HIT ..... especially when the usual jealous suspects circle the wagons to try and tear that guy down.
Horrible thread ..... misleading, inaccurate, and SLANTED to the few who wish Jeter was on his team.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
All that was said in the original post was that Jeter has won gold gloves without being the best defensive shortstop. He's not, he won't ever be. That's not a slam against Jeter, its simply pointing out the obvious truth. He will win again this year despite every measurement showing Jeter's not the best defensive shortstop.
Then this rant about 'he's better than any red sox SS ever!!!'
Wow.
Plain and simple truth: Jeter is a subaverage fielder, yet wins the gold globe because of his name. There is no disputing these facts.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The values aren't his opinions, >>
Never said he was.
He's using his own calculations and variables based upon his opinion of importance. >>
There's some sort of disconnect going on here...either they are his opinion or they aren't...you said at first they were his opinion, then said he wasn't using, them used your original quote of 'his opinion'.
heh >>
Let me go slow for you, since you take things out of context.
This is how he calculates his formula:
"So a player gets credit if he makes a play on a ball that at least one other player at his position missed that season, and loses ground if he misses a ball that at least one other player at his position made. Each player starts with a score of zero, and his final score is the sum of all their plusses and minuses over the season, rounded to the nearest integer."
Now how he gets the values is based upon on field action. These values aren't opinions... The player either makes the play or he doesn't.
However, because of so many other variables that can effect each play (runners on, situational positioning, field conditions, etc), his logic is flawed and the final result is based upon his opinion of importance, not facts.
In other words, it's his opinion that Jeter was the worst and 2nd worst fielding SS, not FACTs.
Is that clearer for you?
"So John Dewan brought me the printouts from his defensive analysis, and he explained what he had done. John’s henchmen at Baseball Info Solutions had watched video from every major league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit (the vector) the type of hit (groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, mob hit, etc.) and by how hard the ball was hit (softly hit, medium, hard hit). Given every vector and every type of hit, they assigned a percentage probability that the ball would result in an out, and then they had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs. One of their conclusions was that Derek Jeter was probably the least effective defensive player in the major leagues, at any position.
So I said, “Well, maybe, but how do I know? How do I know this isn’t just some glitch in the analysis that we don’t understand yet?”
“I knew you would say that,” said John. “So I brought this DVD.” The DVD contained video of 80 defensive plays:”
The 20 best defensive plays made by Derek Jeter.
The 20 worst defensive plays of Derek Jeter, not including errors.
The 20 best defensive plays of Adam Everett, who the analysis had concluded was the best shortstop in baseball.
The 20 worst plays of Adam Everett, not including errors.
How do we define “best” and “worst”? It’s up to the computer. Every play is entered into the computer at Baseball Info Solutions. The computer then computes the totals, and decides that a softly hit groundball on Vector 17 is converted into an out by the shortstop only 26% of the time. Therefore, if, on this occasion, the shortstop converts a slowly hit ball on Vector 17 into an out, that’s a heck of a play, and it scores at +.74. The credit for the play made, 1.00, minus the expectation that it should be made, which is 0.26. If the play isn’t made—by anybody—it’s -.26 for the shortstop.
The best plays are the plays made by shortstops on balls on which shortstops hardly ever make plays, and the worst plays are No Plays made on balls grounded right at the shortstop at medium speed. Sometimes these actually don’t look like bad plays when you watch them. Sometimes the ball takes a little bit of a high hop and Ichiro is running, and he beats the play on something the computer thinks should be a routine out—but it’s still a legitimate analysis, because the shortstop didn’t have to play Ichiro that deep. He could have pulled in two steps; he could have charged the ball. He weighed the risks, he used his best judgment, and he lost. That happens.
That being said, watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. The two men could not possibly be more different in the style and manner in which they run the office. Jeter, in 40 plays, had maybe three plays in which he threw with his feet set. He threw on the run about 20-25 times; he jumped and threw about 10-15 times, he threw from his knees once. He threw from a stable position only when the ball, by the way it was hit, pinned him back on his heels.
Everett set his feet with almost unbelievable quickness and reliability, and threw off of his back foot on almost every play, good or bad. Jeter played much, much more shallow than Everett, cheated to his left more, and shifted his position from left to right much, much more than Everett did (with the exception of three plays on which Everett was shifted over behind second in a Ted Williams shift. Jeter had none of those.)
Jeter gambled constantly on forceouts, leading to good plays when he beat the runner, bad plays when he didn’t. Everett gambled on a forceout only a couple of times, taking the out at first base unless the forceout was a safe play.
Many or most of the good plays made by Jeter were plays made in the infield grass, slow rollers that could easily have died in the infield, but plays on which Jeter, playing shallow and charging the ball aggressively, was able to get the man at first. These were plays that would have been infield hits with most shortstops, and which almost certainly would have been infield hits with Adam Everett at short.
For Everett, those type of plays were the bad plays, the plays he failed to make. The good plays for Everett were mostly hard hit groundballs in the hole or behind second base, on which Everett, playing deep and firing rockets, was able to make an out. These, conversely, were the bad plays for Jeter—hard-hit or not-too-hard-hit groundballs fairly near the shortstop’s home base which Jeter, playing shallow and often positioning himself near second, was unable to convert. And there was literally not one play in the collection of his 20 best plays in which Jeter planted his feet in the outfield grass and threw. There were only three plays in the 40 in which Jeter made the play from the outfield grass, two of those were forceouts at third base, and all three of them occurred just inches into the outfield grass.
First of all, there is the summary of Jeter’s plays made and plays not made. Both Jeter and Everett had plays that they made on the types of balls a shortstop does not usually make a play on, and both Jeter and Everett had plays they didn’t make on balls a shortstop should make the play on. But, as in the case of A-Rod and Casey Blake at the bat, the numbers are quite a bit different.
Adam Everett had 41 No Plays in 2005 on which, given the vector, velocity and type of play, the expectation that the shortstop would make the play was greater than or equal to 50%. Derek Jeter had 93 such plays. 93 plays you would expect the shortstop to make, Jeter didn’t make—52 more than Everett.
On the other side of the ledger, Derek Jeter had 19 plays that he did make that one would NOT expect a shortstop to make (less than 50% probability). Adam Everett had 59. Calling these, colloquially, Plus Plays and Missed Plays:..." END.
MY CONCLUSIONS
1)This system is far, far more telling than any fan, player, or coach watching or opinionizing the defensive merit of any player. Every single defensive play was studied via video and research, and was dissected by some bright people. The notion that a mere fielding percentage, or that it is merely an opinion really doesn't hold any weight. If it is considered to be an opinion, then it is the most informed and strongest opinion on the planet in regard to defense. Take your choice, the most informed opinion on the planet, or a mere speculative one that is typically given??
Do you want the opinion of the head doctor at the Mayo clinic, or some 19 year old kid who works at Jewel Osco stocking pharmacy shelves?
2)Sure, there are varibles, like how hard the ball was hit, how tricky the hop(though a good player can be better at playing the best hop), but those type of variables certainly even out. I don't think Jeter would be the only guy getting tricky hops...and getting them every year, while everybody else gets high scores because they don't get tricky hops. That is foolish.
3)If I didn't know that this was so video intensively studied, then I would be a little less on board. To the Yankee fan that is in the seats and proclaims that he sees every Jeter player, and therefore thinks his opinion holds more weight than true evidence....then how does that Yankee fan feel about the 'opinion' of a group of intelligent men who studied EVERY defensive play in the major leagues of EVERY shortstop? Would that not then hold that many times more weight if observational evidence is being touted as such?
4) There is still a bit more margin of error on this(though the video reduces it siginificantly as opposed to other defensive metrics), as compared to hitting stats(which are in the high 90's percentile of accuracy).
5) FInally, in regard to Jeter specifically! As Softparade said, it is only one element of the game, and overall he is better than all of those guys on that list, and that is what really matters. Historically he may end up in the top three to five all time shortstops. Whether value is placed on peak vs. career is opinion, but it isn't opinion on how many runs the man saved/created. I can see the defensive shortcomings of Jeter as some rallying points for the fans who dislike him...afterall, what the heck else is there to complain about the guy? Nothing. That is the only thing he can be knocked for, though in the end it won't prevent him from a lofty all time ranking, and that is the bottom line.
-Skinpinch
<< <i>Jeter, in 40 plays, had maybe three plays in which he threw with his feet set. He threw on the run about 20-25 times; he jumped and threw about 10-15 times, he threw from his knees once. He threw from a stable position only when the ball, by the way it was hit, pinned him back on his heels. >>
First of all, nice post. Is that really you posting, skinpinch?
Second, that quote really shows one of the main fundamental problems with Jeter's game, and ironically, its one of the things that Jeter marks seem to think makes him so "great". He is frequently out of position on plays, and is always forced to make that little "jump and throw" that looks good on the highlight reels (I guess) but would not be necessary if Jeter was playing proper defensive shortstop.
The reality is, and always will be - Jeter is perhaps not as bad as I always paint him to be, but he is hardly the "greatest of all time" that Yankee fans seem to think either. And when you are talking strictly defense - he doesn't even belong in the group of best defensive SS in the game currently, let alone all-time.
In the immortal words of the Donger, "yeah that me."
I understand your perspective and appreciate your thoughts.
My point is if he's going to study every single play via video and research, he should do a thorough analysis of ALL of the variables.
This theory should factor everything, regardless of how minor other varibles may appear. Disregard a variable based upon an assumption rather than testing it and giving it a definative value?
When they claim something to be a "FACT", why they don't cover all of their bases?
Maybe a coach told a player to play closer to the bag. He misses and get penalized when in reality, it was the coach's fault. How do you put a number on that?
Regardless of how minor it may be, it's an instance that isn't covered, which doesn't make it an absolute "FACT".
But that's just my humble opinion.
PS - The "FACT" comments are based upon the article, not anything you said, skin.
I agree that it isn't absolute fact, and that there are other variables involved.
One you point out is, "maybe a coach told a player to play closer to the bag." Things like this happen, and players are often moved due to scouting reports etc...
FIRST:No matter how one tries to evaluate defensive value, there is always going to be that one big hurdle to get over, and that is the impact of the type of pitchers on your team that have an effect on balls hit in play. It isn't like when batting where Jeter will face all the same pitchers(save for his own team) that Nomar will also face. No. Nomar never gets to field behind Jeter's pitchers, and vice versa. Every fielder in baseball fields exclusively behind 11 different men, and at their unique position. Even players in the same infield can be impacted differently based on who the pitchers are. There is not a single player to contrast to unless there are players playing equal time at a position. Even that could be a problem if they platoon with only certain pitchers on the mound. So it becomes a little harder to isolate the individual measurement on different teams.
Heck, the ability of the third baseman and second baseman also play a role in how many extra outs a player gets to or not.
SECOND:
I am still not clear on how they deal with the advantage of having more balls hit into the area from a staff. It seems to me that the more balls hit into the area of the player can skew things. If you are above average at getting to balls, then the more balls hit in your area, the more points you will get(then send a thank you note to the pitching staff). If that same player got traded to a team that had less balls hit to his area, then he may not have as many opportunities to rack up points. A true measurement would account for this, and that same player should have equal value regardless of team. If not, then it is flawed. They may account some way, but it won't be perfect even if they do, as it is very difficult to do so.
THIRD: Subjectivity of hardness of hit balls. It is hard to tell how hard a ball is hit. This may be minor, but it is a factor.
It tells a story much better than what we had relied on in the past though, and that is nice tool. I would like to see it correlated with other measurements to see how it compares. If it correlates high, then it could give the other methods a little more credence as those are the only other ones that can be used historically.
Currently it may be the best fielding measurement among the ones out there. None of them are as sound as the hitting ones. Among the best fielding measurements used, I liken it to choosing boxers vs. briefs on a scorching hot day. The briefs will chafe you a bit more, but your balls will still be sweaty and itchy in either one.
Tired old fielding stats.
Sort them anyway you'd like and make an arguement why Jetes is the best defensive short stop in the AL.
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Jeter is a great player, denying it is foolish. I just think the Yanks would win more games with in CF. My belief is they would dramatically improve two positions defensively after about a half season of Jeter getting the hang of the new position. Teams would no longer have an automatic run scoring from second on base hits up the middle. This wouldn't necessarily make a difference in a short playoff series where their starting pitching has basically imploded in several of their recent eliminations.
People who rely on fielding percentages are, to me, the same people who use batting average as a way to judge a batter's value.
<< <i>I see that Softparade has thousands of posts. Is he really as ignorant as he appears in comments about Jeter, or is he just a Yankee homer who can not see the truth? I do not see how the Braves not being as good as the Yankees has anything to do with Jeter being a really lousy defensive shortstop. I do wish Jeter was on the Braves. He would make a fine CF if Andruw leaves. Ih he stays, we can put Jeter in left. >>
Mark, one thing Softparade is not, is ignorant. He is a passionate Yankee fan, and very knowledgeable about the game and his team. Insults like that really have no place here.
Going beyond the scope of simply Jeter, there will always be Yankee players who get elevated by the media and the "mystique" into being greater players than they actually are, or were. I've come to accept it, but that doesn't mean I like it.
Too many unaccounted variables for him to say his conclusions are FACTs.
As a side note, I don't think anyone has said that Jeter is the best defensive SS in the majors.
The problem is that he's not the worst or 2nd worst, as the article states.
In my opinion, I'll take some of Jeter's perceived shortcomings at SS for his all-around abilities over my main man Everett any day.
<< <i>Mark, one thing Softparade is not, is ignorant. He is a passionate Yankee fan, and very knowledgeable about the game and his team. Insults like that really have no place here. >>
I will second that!
<< <i>
As a side note, I don't think anyone has said that Jeter is the best defensive SS in the majors.
The problem is that he's not the worst or 2nd worst, as the article states.
>>
When defense alone is considered, the article is close to the truth than that gold glove voters.
None of it really matters. The games will be decided on the field starting today.
I don't know for certain as I haven't seen their whole formula, but it looks like the more chances an above average player gets, the greater his score would be. For instance, if Everett comes from a team that gave him 500 chances and he is an above average shortstop, then lets say he will get +40. So +40 would be his ability. If he was then traded to a team that only gave him 450 chances, then say he is a +35. If he gets traded to another team that gives him 550 chances, then he is +45. We would have three different numbers describing the same guy!
If a player was exactly average, then he would get +-0 regardless if he had 450, 500, or 550 chances.
If a player was below average, then the more chances he gets the worse it is for him. In Jeter's case if he is indeed getting a high amount of balls hit into his vector, then it could be making him look worse than he is because he fields at a below average rate. If he gets hit less balls to him, then his score actually improves. Again, I don't know if they are accounting for this or not, but it doesn't look like they are.
I certainly agree it is the best fielding method so far, but it still does not come as close as the hitting ones do. If anybody has the book, maybe it explains the above scenario.