Thome & HOF
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ESPN.com: Baseball [Print without images]
Friday, September 14, 2007
Updated: September 16, 6:53 PM ET
Thome likely needs 600 homers to reach HOF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com
A few hours after Jim Thome hit his 499th home run, I happened to find myself sitting at a table with seven serious (or semi-serious) baseball fans. So I asked each of them, "Is Thome a Hall of Famer?"
Five said yes, two said no. Five out of seven is 71 percent; if this had been an official Hall vote, Thome would have fallen just 4 percent short. Now, you might think this means nothing, because of course my "voters" didn't have any evidence at hand, and in fact I asked them to respond without thinking about it.
But it does mean something, because some significant percentage of the real voters evaluate Hall of Fame candidates exactly that way. No, I don't mean to suggest that the voters don't think about each player. They do. By the time a player has reached Thome's age -- he turned 37 a few weeks ago -- most of the voters have done a lot of thinking over the years, and they've come to a conclusion. Which isn't to say they don't change their minds. Sometimes they do. We're talking about now, though. Realistically.
So what do the Hall of Fame voters of the future think about Thome right now? For an idea, we can look at how he's fared in the MVP balloting over the years.
Thome has never won an MVP Award. He's never come close. He does have four top-10 MVP finishes: a fourth, a sixth and two sevenths. This constitutes a real problem for his candidacy. Thome has been an RBI man with a number of good teams, and MVP voters typically reward that sort of player. MVP voters essentially are a subset of Hall of Fame voters. If they don't appreciate him while he's playing, will they appreciate him when he's eligible for the Hall?
Only six post-1950 first basemen have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Here's a simple representation of how each fared during his career in MVP balloting, counting only top-nine finishes through the years:
Post-1950 HOF 1B
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Harmon Killebrew 1-2-3-3-4-4
Eddie Murray 2-2-4-5-5-5-6
Rod Carew 1-4-5-7-9
Willie McCovey 1-3-9
Orlando Cepeda 1-2-9
Tony Perez 3-7-8
As you can see, four of the Hall of Fame first basemen won the award once, and all of them finished as high as third at least once.
Next, my first tier of Hall of Fame candidates at first base; these two players clearly have established themselves as favorites in the minds of the MVP/Hall of Fame voters.
FIRST TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Frank Thomas 1-1-2-3-3-4-8-8-8
Jeff Bagwell 1-2-3-7-7-9
For those who think Bagwell is going to have problems getting into the Hall of Fame, it's worth noting that he looks very good here relative to his peers at first base. And Frank Thomas blows everybody out of the water, with the caveat that he's actually logged more games as a DH than as a first baseman. Of course, as we've seen with McGwire, the steroids issue means nobody's a sure thing. But absent performance-enhancing drugs, we can figure that both of these guys will cruise right into the Hall.
Next, the second tier. These guys all were MVPs and put up big numbers, but in abbreviated careers.
SECOND TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Keith Hernandez 1-2-4-8
Don Mattingly 1-2-5-7
Jason Giambi 1-2-5-8
Quite a coincidence, how closely these New York first basemen match in the MVP balloting. All three were great players in their times, each with first- and second-place finishes in the voting, and all three suffered debilitating injuries that severely impacted their Hall of Fame chances (Giambi has had some other issues, of course).
Here's the third tier:
THIRD TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Mark McGwire 2-4-5-6-7
Will Clark 2-4-5-5
Jim Thome 4-6-7-7
Fred McGriff 4-6-6-8
None of the players in the second tier is likely to become a Hall of Famer, and here's Thome in the third tier. Which doesn't bode well for his chances, obviously. And he doesn't match up with Clark and McGriff in MVP votes.
And finally, our fourth tier, completing the list of post-1950 first basemen who have been seriously discussed as Hall of Fame candidates (or who deserve to be).
FOURTH TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Carlos Delgado 2-4-6
Todd Helton 5-7-9
Rafael Palmeiro 5-6-8
Gil Hodges 7-8
Carlos Delgado has been a great hitter for a long time. But did you know that he's been an All-Star only twice? As things stand now, I believe he'll have a difficult time getting elected. He's only 35 and has time to build his counting stats. He'll need to. Helton's candidacy is hurt by all those years with losing teams and by the stigma that comes with playing all those games in Coors Field. He needs to pile up those counting stats, too.
Hodges doesn't stack up, but he has always benefited from his association with the '69 Mets. And Palmeiro? Despite the poor showing in MVP voting, he probably was close to a lock before he got busted for steroids. But that's because he cleared 3,000 hits, which has always been an automatic qualifier (notwithstanding suspension-worthy offenses).
Looking at the first basemen who are in the Hall of Fame, only Tony Perez has anything like Thome's "MVP profile" -- no award, no finish better than third, not many top 10s -- and Perez benefited from a halo effect that comes with having been a key component of the Big Red Machine (and even then, it took him nine years to get elected).
So in a sense, the Hall of Fame voters -- in the guise of MVP voters -- already have passed judgment on Thome, and they have found him wanting. Can he change their minds? Certainly. Just as Palmeiro turned into a likely Hall of Famer by collecting his 3,000th hit, Thome can become one by hitting 600 home runs. But 500's not going to be nearly enough.
So Thome has not, today, done enough to be elected. Realistically, that is. But what about idealistically? Does he deserve to be elected, based on the merits of his case? Well, as Mickey Mantle once told Congress, "My views are just about the same as Casey's."
Rob Neyer writes for ESPN Insider and regularly updates his blog for ESPN.com. You can reach him via rob.neyer@dig.com. His most recent book ("Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders") is available everywhere.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ESPN.com: Baseball [Print without images]
Friday, September 14, 2007
Updated: September 16, 6:53 PM ET
Thome likely needs 600 homers to reach HOF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com
A few hours after Jim Thome hit his 499th home run, I happened to find myself sitting at a table with seven serious (or semi-serious) baseball fans. So I asked each of them, "Is Thome a Hall of Famer?"
Five said yes, two said no. Five out of seven is 71 percent; if this had been an official Hall vote, Thome would have fallen just 4 percent short. Now, you might think this means nothing, because of course my "voters" didn't have any evidence at hand, and in fact I asked them to respond without thinking about it.
But it does mean something, because some significant percentage of the real voters evaluate Hall of Fame candidates exactly that way. No, I don't mean to suggest that the voters don't think about each player. They do. By the time a player has reached Thome's age -- he turned 37 a few weeks ago -- most of the voters have done a lot of thinking over the years, and they've come to a conclusion. Which isn't to say they don't change their minds. Sometimes they do. We're talking about now, though. Realistically.
So what do the Hall of Fame voters of the future think about Thome right now? For an idea, we can look at how he's fared in the MVP balloting over the years.
Thome has never won an MVP Award. He's never come close. He does have four top-10 MVP finishes: a fourth, a sixth and two sevenths. This constitutes a real problem for his candidacy. Thome has been an RBI man with a number of good teams, and MVP voters typically reward that sort of player. MVP voters essentially are a subset of Hall of Fame voters. If they don't appreciate him while he's playing, will they appreciate him when he's eligible for the Hall?
Only six post-1950 first basemen have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Here's a simple representation of how each fared during his career in MVP balloting, counting only top-nine finishes through the years:
Post-1950 HOF 1B
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Harmon Killebrew 1-2-3-3-4-4
Eddie Murray 2-2-4-5-5-5-6
Rod Carew 1-4-5-7-9
Willie McCovey 1-3-9
Orlando Cepeda 1-2-9
Tony Perez 3-7-8
As you can see, four of the Hall of Fame first basemen won the award once, and all of them finished as high as third at least once.
Next, my first tier of Hall of Fame candidates at first base; these two players clearly have established themselves as favorites in the minds of the MVP/Hall of Fame voters.
FIRST TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Frank Thomas 1-1-2-3-3-4-8-8-8
Jeff Bagwell 1-2-3-7-7-9
For those who think Bagwell is going to have problems getting into the Hall of Fame, it's worth noting that he looks very good here relative to his peers at first base. And Frank Thomas blows everybody out of the water, with the caveat that he's actually logged more games as a DH than as a first baseman. Of course, as we've seen with McGwire, the steroids issue means nobody's a sure thing. But absent performance-enhancing drugs, we can figure that both of these guys will cruise right into the Hall.
Next, the second tier. These guys all were MVPs and put up big numbers, but in abbreviated careers.
SECOND TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Keith Hernandez 1-2-4-8
Don Mattingly 1-2-5-7
Jason Giambi 1-2-5-8
Quite a coincidence, how closely these New York first basemen match in the MVP balloting. All three were great players in their times, each with first- and second-place finishes in the voting, and all three suffered debilitating injuries that severely impacted their Hall of Fame chances (Giambi has had some other issues, of course).
Here's the third tier:
THIRD TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Mark McGwire 2-4-5-6-7
Will Clark 2-4-5-5
Jim Thome 4-6-7-7
Fred McGriff 4-6-6-8
None of the players in the second tier is likely to become a Hall of Famer, and here's Thome in the third tier. Which doesn't bode well for his chances, obviously. And he doesn't match up with Clark and McGriff in MVP votes.
And finally, our fourth tier, completing the list of post-1950 first basemen who have been seriously discussed as Hall of Fame candidates (or who deserve to be).
FOURTH TIER OF 1B HOF CANDIDATES
PLAYER MVP FINISH
Carlos Delgado 2-4-6
Todd Helton 5-7-9
Rafael Palmeiro 5-6-8
Gil Hodges 7-8
Carlos Delgado has been a great hitter for a long time. But did you know that he's been an All-Star only twice? As things stand now, I believe he'll have a difficult time getting elected. He's only 35 and has time to build his counting stats. He'll need to. Helton's candidacy is hurt by all those years with losing teams and by the stigma that comes with playing all those games in Coors Field. He needs to pile up those counting stats, too.
Hodges doesn't stack up, but he has always benefited from his association with the '69 Mets. And Palmeiro? Despite the poor showing in MVP voting, he probably was close to a lock before he got busted for steroids. But that's because he cleared 3,000 hits, which has always been an automatic qualifier (notwithstanding suspension-worthy offenses).
Looking at the first basemen who are in the Hall of Fame, only Tony Perez has anything like Thome's "MVP profile" -- no award, no finish better than third, not many top 10s -- and Perez benefited from a halo effect that comes with having been a key component of the Big Red Machine (and even then, it took him nine years to get elected).
So in a sense, the Hall of Fame voters -- in the guise of MVP voters -- already have passed judgment on Thome, and they have found him wanting. Can he change their minds? Certainly. Just as Palmeiro turned into a likely Hall of Famer by collecting his 3,000th hit, Thome can become one by hitting 600 home runs. But 500's not going to be nearly enough.
So Thome has not, today, done enough to be elected. Realistically, that is. But what about idealistically? Does he deserve to be elected, based on the merits of his case? Well, as Mickey Mantle once told Congress, "My views are just about the same as Casey's."
Rob Neyer writes for ESPN Insider and regularly updates his blog for ESPN.com. You can reach him via rob.neyer@dig.com. His most recent book ("Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders") is available everywhere.
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Comments
Hmm. Perhaps the new "HoF Shoe-In" homerun marks will be:
500 hrs w/ 1 or more MVP awards
or
600 hrs w/o MVPs
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
Hit 40 or more Homers 5 times and over 50 once. 9 times 100+ RBI; Four times ranked in the top 10 in MVP. Definitely a feared and respected slugger. Lifetime On base average over .400 He is going to finish his career in the top 15 or so Home Run hitters. That is a HOF lock, especially when steroid clowns like Sosa, McGwire and Palmeiro are going to be after thoughts.
Wade Boggs fared as badly as Thome did with Hall-of-Fame voters. Molitor, Winfield, Billy Williams, Brock, Gwynn were not too much better. All played a lot more games than Thome has so far, but it does show that his peak value is at a Hall-of-Fame level
2) Thome has oustanding percentage stats, and one of the reasons why he does is that he simply didn't hit off of the tough lefties(even the mediocore ones) for a good part of his career. He has a little Ken Phelps syndrome going. MVP voters probably take that into account either from ignorance(simply looking at low RBI totals), or from thinking..."how valuable can a guy be if he has to get pinched hit for when a lefty comes into the game?" It is in this vein where looking at his MVP rankings has some merit, despite some of the obvious flaws of MVP voting.
-Skinpinch
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
I would tend to disagree
Thome is going to end up with 550+ homers maybe more; he can still crush the ball. high On Base Avg. great slugging numbers, classy guy, involved with the community, a true ambassador of the game. He's going to have the numbers AND a nice guy too boot. thats a lock.
Shame on you, Neyer. If you want to question Thome's HOF credentials, fine, but good grief can you let the ink dry on the 500 HR story first? And by the way, Thome IS a Hall of Famer. If you want to measure the 500 HR hitters by the lowest standard, then you probably need to look at Harmon Killebrew, who did not hit for average or do anything else of consequence but hit home runs. He is in the Hall. Thome is a better all around player than Harmon. Hall of Famer, period.
Ron
Buying Vintage, all sports.
Buying Woody Hayes, Les Horvath, Vic Janowicz, and Jesse Owens autographed items
Not yet sold on Thome in Hall
posted: Monday, September 17, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
If you don't know anything about Jim Thome, you would learn a lot from reading the details of Toni Ginnetti's story this morning:
Before batting in the first inning on Sunday, Thome wrote the name of his mother into the dirt. He awarded the fan who retrieved the milestone career home run No. 500 ball a pair of season tickets. He intends to personally deliver his mementos to the Hall of Fame, with his father. These details reflect the kind of person he has always been since he broke into the big leagues.
So you feel like a jerk when you suggest that he is not quite a rock-solid, first-ballot Hall of Famer yet, and that he has more work to do before achieving that status. That is what I'm going to do now, and then, after that, I'm going to slam the door in the face of Girl Scouts selling cookies, cancel our family Christmas and retrieve that $10 I put in the collection plate at church.
Here's the thing: I think Thome absolutely will get into the Hall of Fame eventually even if he doesn't play another game (and we know that he will continue to play). I might even vote for him on the first ballot if he didn't play another game.
But I do think that the standards for the Hall of Fame voters have shifted in recent years. Five hundred home runs was once a golden ticket into the Hall, but I don't think that's the case any more, with so many hitters achieving that milestone in recent years. There was a lot of conversation in the winter about the questions surrounding Mark McGwire's alleged use of performance-enhancing drugs, but a lot of voters also indicated that they felt that McGwire's résumé was a little hollow, beyond the home runs.
There are some holes in Thome's current resume:
• He currently ranks 67th in career RBI, despite playing in an offense-rich era. There are 10 players with more RBI than Thome whose names have already appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot who haven't gotten in -- guys like Jim Rice and Harold Baines and Andre Dawson. For Thome, a power guy whose credentials are built on run production, that's a problem.
• He's never finished in the top three in MVP voting in any season, which is unusual for a Hall of Fame candidate whose credentials are built on power. The only current member of the 500-homer club about whom that is true is Rafael Palmeiro. Everybody else either was an MVP or finished second at one time or another.
• His defense may not hurt him, but it doesn't help him, either.
• He is one of the all-time leaders in OPS, but some of the OPS argument is diluted by the fact that nine of the 19 greatest OPS hitters are currently playing.
• He ranks 105th all-time in runs scored, behind Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez and others.
In summation, Thome has hit a ton of homers and drawn a ton of walks, but he hasn't been extraordinary at scoring runs or driving them in, and to get in the Hall of Fame, you either have to be exceptional at one or the other. Or be an extraordinary fielder, or a pitcher.
So my own sense is that to be a first-ballot selection, he'll have to climb into the Frank Robinson stratosphere of home runs -- into the 580s. And he'll probably do that.
If you were to give him points for the kind of person he is, he'd be a unanimous selection. He's always treated me terrifically. But I've never taken credit away from Hall candidates who've been jerks to me, personally, and I don't think it's right to give Thome extra consideration because he's a great guy.
OK, I'm finished with that rotten work. Now I'll head off and make the kids scrub the basement floor with toothbrushes.
He's 37 now so if you figure that over the next 3 years he averages 75 Runs & 75 RBI here's how he will stack up
Thome 1550 Runs 1650 RBI
Mantle 1677 Runs 1509 RBI
Schmidt 1506 RUns 1595 RBI
Jackson 1551 Runs 1702 RBI
Banks 1305 Runs 1636 RBI
Killebrew 1283 Runs 1584 RBI
McCovey 1229 Runs 1555 RBI
So if you have to be exceptional at one or the other to get in the hall, then either his #'s are exceptional, or there are a lot of 500 HR guys that apparently don't belong in the Hall. Ranking a player before he retires is a dumb way to determine his Hall-worthiness. I know he is saying he's not sold on him "yet" but he should project out the stats before using them against him.
/s/ JackWESQ
what a smart guy.
He was a LOCK then and is even more so today. Same classy guy, same powerful slugger. Maybe he was never truly dominant because the guys leading the league were jacked up on roids. He hit over 40 HR's several times, led the NL one year and hit 52 another season. he is among the top 40 or 50 players OPS, Walks, RBI's & runs created. along with Griffey and Frank Thomas, i think the true sluggers of the past 20 years.
James
Brian
curious why it would take several attempts? maybe (and this is a big maybe) if in the same year he was up against 3 or 4 other true HOF'ers like maddux, griffey etc. but i recall one year where Yount was elected (first ballot) and brett and someone else were elected.
has any member of the 500+ HR club not been elected in the first year of eligibility....ooh, a good trivia question for you folks with time on your hands today!
<< <i>"I think he's a lock for the HOF even if it takes him several attempts to get in the hall. "
curious why it would take several attempts? maybe (and this is a big maybe) if in the same year he was up against 3 or 4 other true HOF'ers like maddux, griffey etc. but i recall one year where Yount was elected (first ballot) and brett and someone else were elected.
has any member of the 500+ HR club not been elected in the first year of eligibility....ooh, a good trivia question for you folks with time on your hands today!
I only said several attempts because you never know about the writers and who else is eligible at the time...I would hope he is a first ballot hof.
Brian
<< <i>maybe (and this is a big maybe) if in the same year he was up against 3 or 4 other true HOF'ers like maddux, griffey etc. >>
Since Maddux is retired and Thome is still active, that one won't be happening.
<< <i>has any member of the 500+ HR club not been elected in the first year of eligibility....ooh, a good trivia question for you folks with time on your hands today! >>
Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Eddie Matthews, Harmon Killebrew, Mark McGwire
<< <i>Even if he is still below Thomas and Bagwell, he definitely deserves to be in the Hall-of-Fame >>
Already more than 100 HR's ahead of Bagwell and about 35 ahead of Thomas. Don't think either will be passing him.