I think we will see a drastic appreciation in VF-AU Buffalo nickels, Standing Liberty quarters, and Walking Liberty halves. The supply of these collector grade coins is drying up fast as the commem quarter newbies start branching out into classic series.
Mojo
"I am the wilderness that is lost in man." -Jim Morrison- Mr. Mojorizn
judging by the ana and just back from the dalton show- bust and seated material without problems are very hot -hot -hot. also nice buffaloes are starting to really move, this is good, as the've been slow for a couple years. i had a 1925d buffalo in an ngc ms66 holder ,and the finest i've ever seen for the date realize $57,500.00 in the heritage ana platinum sale. all of a sudden check out the heritage long beach show and look at the high end buffaloes ,consigned coming to market.
<< <i>A one year time horizon is too short a period of time to bet that any particular series, or individual coin is likely to rise in value.
While I always tend to agree with roadrunner on the seated and barber series, even there it is a pure guess as to the extent of interest that will be generated in a 12 month period.
A better approach is to find a series that is undervalued, and likely to catch up over a 3 to 5 year period. The early bust denominations have done great since 2002, but are now pricey in many grades. Early gold went bananas for 3 years, and is slowing down.
My best estimate over the next 3 to 5 years- pq toned capped bust halves-MS 62 to 66.
US-Philippines coins have already seen a dramatic price increase this past year, and they will continue with dramatic increases for the foreseeable future.
They are US currency, denominated in pesos, with relatively low mintages and extremely low survivor rates in all grades due to cultural, economic, environmental, wartime sack-and-loot and other reasons galore.
Millions were dumped into Manila Bay in 1942 to keep from advancing Japanese forces.
Multiple Mass Melts... ...1906 (silver price rose above face value) ...1942 (Japanese looted to help fund their war effort) ...1946 (Philippine Independence saw new monetary system, new government snapped up the older silver for melt / re-minting) ...1980's (Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market drove silver to $40 an ounce)
Generalized poverty has caused (and still cause) coins to be "spent" (today sold for "melt") rather than "collected".
Dealers in a collector market that did exist didn't get the word that "shining up" coins actually decreased their value.
The last pesos were minted in 1912, but they circulated until 1942. A whole lot of wear in that time.
A huge number of the denomination/date/mint combinations have Finest Known's that are less than Gem MS65.
The American Filipino community has now increased to a level that has begun to affect the market.
Huge numbers of children from American/Filipino couples have grown up and are now collecting their "heritage" coins.
What other US coin better represents both the heritage of Filipino-Americans and the heritage of those born to American/Filipino couples, than these coins which have the Spanish word for Philippines on the obverse (Filipinas) and United States of America on the reverse?
What other US coin is denominated in Peso and Centavos?
What other US coin was minted at the US Mint in Manila, the only US Mint outside of the Continental US?
How many other US coins have the date on the reverse?
What other regular issue US coin minted since the 19th century has a lower mintage than the 1904P Peso, 1904P 50 Centavos, 1904P 20 Centavos and 1904P 10 Centavos with total mintages of 10,000 each? And are still affordable? In just about ANY grade?
What other regular issue US coin has less surviving examples (possibly as low as 100) than the 1906 Peso? And it is still affordable in the lower grades, (and "cleaned", often harshly).
Compare the mintage of the intentionally minted "mule" 1928M 20 Centavos (100,000) to the 1916D Dime (264,000), both of whom were set by law as value equivalent (two peso exactly for one dollar), and the 1928 20 Centavos saw huge circulation, since it was greatly needed for circulation, and that was the reason for minting a mule from a 5 Centavos reverse die of 1927, and I recently purchased an AU representative for $100!
These are indeed US coins, but they have been neglected and relegated to the darkside collectors for decades.
However, the market is starting to wake up to see that this is the only category of US coinage still very affordable, even now, but not for much longer. Recently (in the last year) a relatively common date peso sold for over $50,000 by Heritage, but it sold for that amount because it was the top pop at something like MS66, and the current owner of the top pop registry set was in the bidding. He lost!
Your post stated anything goes, so I have submitted these coins, though I should not have to apologize for such coins being discussed in the U.S. Coin Forum, as they are on topic here.
I'll now slink back to the darkside, where I am somewhat welcome as a "graysider".
The second First Spouse Liberty coin in 2008 will have the Liberty from the Sitting Liberty Dime. I believe this will rekindle interest in the Sitting Liberty series.
<< <i>I feel the 09-58 Lincoln Cent will continue to increase in value as 2009 approaches.
The Classic Commem market has been depressed for many years and should rebound, eventually.
>>
I agree that commons will make a move (it's been a while).
Modern crap will go up and tank as always (to many amatures).
Lots of early Lincolns will sell because people will want to jump on the end of the line bandwagon...than it will tank bigtime after the hoopla.
Some seated coinage is still affordable (low mintage and attractive) and reasonable.
Bust halves are a thing of beauty, they might not cool down for a while (if ever).
Gold who knows? Good pieces will always command a high price IMHO.
Nice Shield nickels are very tough if you happen to collect them...and I happen to like the series.
IHC's in mid to lower grade is always a popular series.
2 cent pieces will fair well.
Early copper is always tough.......and will always be expensive in good grades.
Bust quarters, dimes and dollars will always be out of reach for me (at least the grade I would like them in!)
Last but not least, any series with no or very few varieties. (Peace dollar comes to my mind, and i'm not including any of that VAM crap)
Ray
PS CN3 cent pieces will NEVER be popular! Nobody will buy them and not a person in the world would even consider excepting a FREE 1885 MS65 slabbed coin (PCGS by the way) if their life depended on it! Hideous coins IMHO.
<< <i>Hard times are around the corner for the common collector, they will feel it in their pocket and prices will drop, as to the the wealthy collector a few will fall and not be around to bid up the prices of the choice and rare coins that the remainder of the consistantly bullet proof wealthy collectors will scramble for. The economy is going to takr a large nose dive, how can coins not go down with real estate and the stock market. Its all cycles, nothing can go up all the time, look at it as a set of stairs, things will level off, sink a little and eventually go back up and even higher then previously. No big deal if you are into it for the long term and you truly are a collector and not a closet trader. I will take advantage of the impending little dive and get some stuff that I was squeezed out of before. A little shakeup is cool, takes the egotism out of coin collecting, everything is affected by major downturns, when you see the carnage from the real estate debacle that is going to hit get in a bunker and hunker down because its going to be bloody. So to answer your question nothin is going to really appreciate in value over the NEXT 12 MONTHS. >>
The common collector (as you put it) will not feel a thing, if anyone has a sag in their holdings it will be the high end type of collectors. Take a look at current or past prices......what grades tend to change the most, low to mid range or the higher grade coins?
I for one will look for those high quality coins that those so called weathy people will be dumping so they can walk into their home another day.
Early date lincolns. I collect in (XF40-AU58). Problem free even toned coins in these grades are getting harder to find. I have got back into collecting after selling off my coins several years ago, and the prices have definately been going up.
I think Lincolns are going to skyrocket in price as 2009 approaches.
<< <i>everything I've sold in the previous 12 months >>
"government is not reason, it is not eloquence-it is a force! like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master; never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." George Washington
"government is not reason, it is not eloquence-it is a force! like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master; never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." George Washington
The RDV-006 Eisenhower Friendly Eagle Pattern will appreciate quite a bit once folks start to realize that high grades are very difficult to come by. Heck, even the coin itself is difficult to come by!
Additionally, once PCGS and NGC include this variety in the IKE Varieties Set, all those IKE collectors are gonna have to get one and prices for the higher grades will grow astronomically!
All this, in the next 12 months or so. >>
I just received back from PCGS a FEP graded 55 - was hoping for a 58 and YES, I also believe this particular coin will go up in value once the coin collecting world catches on to its rarity and more interestingly, the story behind this unique coin.
currently putting together a EF/AU/BU 18th & 19th Century Type Set; and CC Morgan Set
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
PS CN3 cent pieces will NEVER be popular! Nobody will buy them and not a person in the world would even consider excepting a FREE 1885 MS65 slabbed coin (PCGS by the way) if their life depended on it! Hideous coins IMHO.
Ray
uh Ray..... my life don't depend on it ...but....i'll take that 1885 CN3 cent piece graded MS65 by PCGS...
I'll PM you with my mailing address.
do i need to send any $ to cover shipping and handling?
Late 20th cen O mint 10 gold coins. They have tiny mintage's (high teens-low 20,000) and are unavailable in mid mint state grades. Try to buy one for sheet.
Comments
Mojo
-Jim Morrison-
Mr. Mojorizn
my blog:www.numistories.com
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
or no motto < 1869.
we have a dealer blog saying he cannot even find them.
theee expert in branch half eagles who visits so many shows..
i fully expect to get outbid on most nice half eagles now days
because i cannot compete.
<< <i>A one year time horizon is too short a period of time to bet that any particular series, or individual coin is likely to rise in value.
While I always tend to agree with roadrunner on the seated and barber series, even there it is a pure guess as to the extent of interest that will be generated in a 12 month period.
A better approach is to find a series that is undervalued, and likely to catch up over a 3 to 5 year period. The early bust denominations have done great since 2002, but are now pricey in many grades. Early gold went bananas for 3 years, and is slowing down.
My best estimate over the next 3 to 5 years- pq toned capped bust halves-MS 62 to 66.
Capped bust quarters AU 58 to MS 64.
Flowing hair half dimes in MS 62 to 66. >>
I always enjoyed these kinds of columns in the old Coinage magazine where notable numismatists would conjecture on the underrated series, thanks guys!
<< <i>The 1852-O Seated Quarter is undervalued in the lower grades, and will see an increase. The increase will come sooner, rather than later.
Ray >>
I posted this a couple days ago.
Look what this one just sold for.
About double what the price guides say.
Ray
US-Philippines coins have already seen a dramatic price increase this past year, and they will continue with dramatic increases for the foreseeable future.
They are US currency, denominated in pesos, with relatively low mintages and extremely low survivor rates in all grades due to cultural, economic, environmental, wartime sack-and-loot and other reasons galore.
Millions were dumped into Manila Bay in 1942 to keep from advancing Japanese forces.
Multiple Mass Melts...
...1906 (silver price rose above face value)
...1942 (Japanese looted to help fund their war effort)
...1946 (Philippine Independence saw new monetary system, new government snapped up the older silver for melt / re-minting)
...1980's (Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market drove silver to $40 an ounce)
Generalized poverty has caused (and still cause) coins to be "spent" (today sold for "melt") rather than "collected".
Dealers in a collector market that did exist didn't get the word that "shining up" coins actually decreased their value.
The last pesos were minted in 1912, but they circulated until 1942. A whole lot of wear in that time.
A huge number of the denomination/date/mint combinations have Finest Known's that are less than Gem MS65.
The American Filipino community has now increased to a level that has begun to affect the market.
Huge numbers of children from American/Filipino couples have grown up and are now collecting their "heritage" coins.
What other US coin better represents both the heritage of Filipino-Americans and the heritage of those born to American/Filipino couples, than these coins which have the Spanish word for Philippines on the obverse (Filipinas) and United States of America on the reverse?
What other US coin is denominated in Peso and Centavos?
What other US coin was minted at the US Mint in Manila, the only US Mint outside of the Continental US?
How many other US coins have the date on the reverse?
What other regular issue US coin minted since the 19th century has a lower mintage than the 1904P Peso, 1904P 50 Centavos, 1904P 20 Centavos and 1904P 10 Centavos with total mintages of 10,000 each?
And are still affordable?
In just about ANY grade?
What other regular issue US coin has less surviving examples (possibly as low as 100) than the 1906 Peso? And it is still affordable in the lower grades, (and "cleaned", often harshly).
Compare the mintage of the intentionally minted "mule" 1928M 20 Centavos (100,000) to the 1916D Dime (264,000), both of whom were set by law as value equivalent (two peso exactly for one dollar), and the 1928 20 Centavos saw huge circulation, since it was greatly needed for circulation, and that was the reason for minting a mule from a 5 Centavos reverse die of 1927, and I recently purchased an AU representative for $100!
These are indeed US coins, but they have been neglected and relegated to the darkside collectors for decades.
However, the market is starting to wake up to see that this is the only category of US coinage still very affordable, even now, but not for much longer. Recently (in the last year) a relatively common date peso sold for over $50,000 by Heritage, but it sold for that amount because it was the top pop at something like MS66, and the current owner of the top pop registry set was in the bidding. He lost!
Your post stated anything goes, so I have submitted these coins, though I should not have to apologize for such coins being discussed in the U.S. Coin Forum, as they are on topic here.
I'll now slink back to the darkside, where I am somewhat welcome as a "graysider".
<< <i>I feel the 09-58 Lincoln Cent will continue to increase in value as 2009 approaches.
The Classic Commem market has been depressed for many years and should rebound, eventually.
I agree that commons will make a move (it's been a while).
Modern crap will go up and tank as always (to many amatures).
Lots of early Lincolns will sell because people will want to jump on the end of the line bandwagon...than it will tank bigtime after the hoopla.
Some seated coinage is still affordable (low mintage and attractive) and reasonable.
Bust halves are a thing of beauty, they might not cool down for a while (if ever).
Gold who knows? Good pieces will always command a high price IMHO.
Nice Shield nickels are very tough if you happen to collect them...and I happen to like the series.
IHC's in mid to lower grade is always a popular series.
2 cent pieces will fair well.
Early copper is always tough.......and will always be expensive in good grades.
Bust quarters, dimes and dollars will always be out of reach for me (at least the grade I would like them in!)
Last but not least, any series with no or very few varieties. (Peace dollar comes to my mind, and i'm not including any of that VAM crap)
Ray
PS CN3 cent pieces will NEVER be popular! Nobody will buy them and not a person in the world would even consider excepting a FREE 1885 MS65 slabbed coin (PCGS by the way) if their life depended on it! Hideous coins IMHO.
Ray
<< <i>US gold...bought some AU $10 Libs for $325 last weekend...about 1% premium over melt >>
Looks like you did very well in a weeks time.
Ray
McLaughlin Coin Group!
right on the mark. 2008 may well prove
to be a difficult year. However, it is a normal
part of the economic cycle and the sooner we get
thru it the better.
Camelot
<< <i>Hard times are around the corner for the common collector, they will feel it in their pocket and prices will drop, as to the the wealthy collector a few will fall and not be around to bid up the prices of the choice and rare coins that the remainder of the consistantly bullet proof wealthy collectors will scramble for. The economy is going to takr a large nose dive, how can coins not go down with real estate and the stock market. Its all cycles, nothing can go up all the time, look at it as a set of stairs, things will level off, sink a little and eventually go back up and even higher then previously. No big deal if you are into it for the long term and you truly are a collector and not a closet trader.
I will take advantage of the impending little dive and get some stuff that I was squeezed out of before.
A little shakeup is cool, takes the egotism out of coin collecting, everything is affected by major downturns, when you see the carnage from the real estate debacle that is going to hit get in a bunker and hunker down because its going to be bloody.
So to answer your question nothin is going to really appreciate in value over the NEXT 12 MONTHS.
The common collector (as you put it) will not feel a thing, if anyone has a sag in their holdings it will be the high end type of collectors.
Take a look at current or past prices......what grades tend to change the most, low to mid range or the higher grade coins?
I for one will look for those high quality coins that those so called weathy people will be dumping so they can walk into their home another day.
Nothing is bullet proof.
Ray
I think Lincolns are going to skyrocket in price as 2009 approaches.
<< <i>2006-S San Fran Gold Unc. >>
I believe this could be the "sleeper." PCGS graded 69's are already selling for about 50% above issue price...Only time will tell.
<< <i>everything I've sold in the previous 12 months >>
BUFFS FOR SURE!
<< <i>In my eye this is simple!
The RDV-006 Eisenhower Friendly Eagle Pattern will appreciate quite a bit once folks start to realize that high grades are very difficult to come by. Heck, even the coin itself is difficult to come by!
Additionally, once PCGS and NGC include this variety in the IKE Varieties Set, all those IKE collectors are gonna have to get one and prices for the higher grades will grow astronomically!
All this, in the next 12 months or so. >>
I just received back from PCGS a FEP graded 55 - was hoping for a 58 and YES, I also believe this particular coin will go up in value once the coin collecting world catches on to its rarity and more interestingly, the story behind this unique coin.
just completed 3d tour to Iraq and retired after 28+ years in the US Army
Ray
uh Ray..... my life don't depend on it ...but....i'll take that 1885 CN3 cent piece graded MS65 by PCGS...
I'll PM you with my mailing address.
do i need to send any $ to cover shipping and handling?
Gold, Silver, Nickel & Copper ones.