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Classic Commem Market
richardshipp
Posts: 5,647 ✭✭✭
It seems that there is a bunch of very nice pieces all hitting the market about the same time lately. Does everyone know something I don't know, or is it maybe in preparation for making space for some of the monsters coming up in the May Heritage sale?
I've been trying to put some funds together for that sale but its hard not to just pull the trigger on some of the stuff out there right now.
I've been trying to put some funds together for that sale but its hard not to just pull the trigger on some of the stuff out there right now.
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With all due respect to the poster, I would disagree with this statement in part anyway. Commems that have character and are special, either in terms of eye-appeal, grade and hopefully both, have and continue to sell well. And, many of the coins that fit this bill have seen appreciation as well. I agree that generic and otherwise plain jane commems have been stagnant, but the general statement made is not necessarily true. The above statement could be made for many series so it really is the coin and not the category or sector.
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
roadrunner
<< <i>Classic Commem have been dead forever.
With all due respect to the poster, I would disagree with this statement in part anyway. Commems that have character and are special, either in terms of eye-appeal, grade and hopefully both, have and continue to sell well. And, many of the coins that fit this bill have seen appreciation as well. I agree that generic and otherwise plain jane commems have been stagnant, but the general statement made is not necessarily true. The above statement could be made for many series so it really is the coin and not the category or sector. >>
<< <i>
I had no idea who Virginia Dare was until just now. She's credited as being the first child of English descent in the New World. Pretty cool.
PCGS MS68
Commems and Early Type
especially high end commems...stay away from em..at least for a while...
Bruce Scher
Drunner
Commems and Early Type
roadrunner
Seriously, there has been quite a bit of upward pressure on "Nice" gem commem pricing in the past five years. During this same period the sheet pricing has shown little to no increases. The reason is simple. There are more commem dogs in gem TPG holders than any other series. It is the abundance of these barking holders that keep sheet prices from moving up.
And I think it's great. Very nice gem commems can be acquired for only small premiums to these deflated sheet prices. Just stay away from the so called "Monster Toners" that sell for stupid money and you can have a great time putting this set together. Patience is everything because the fact is you could buy a complete barking gem set in a week. So far I have been at it for 5 years and still have more than a handful to go to complete the type set.
My latest chase is a 64-67 type set of early commems. While many experienced collectors have been soured by the commem boom of the eighties and early nineties and the subsequent bust (or at least lack of appreciation), I believe many new collectors will eventually embrace the early commems. They offer much more variety, history and limited mintages than most 20th century issues.
I truly enjoy my other sets but the Connecticut, Hudson, Oregon, Texas, Spanish Trail, Pilgrim, Roanoke, Antietam, Gettysburg and many of the other beautiful early commems are by far the most fun and rewarding set I've chased after. As Keets stated, it requires great patience for me to find my ideal coins, but I love the fact so many good ones are now coming to market.
<< <i>Lots of nice MS63 and MS64 slabbed coins with mintages of 2,500 to 10,000 available for $200 or less... >>
What are the reasons for the relatively low prices and corresponding lack of demand?
$200 is still a substantial collector premium over melt.
especially high end commems...stay away from em..at least for a while...
Bruce Scher >>>>
i totally agree.....people should not buy these coins...stay away until may 13th when the auction is over :-)
now for my hobby notes...imho...but 1st a caveat ....these are my thoughts based on 3 decades in the hobby and learning the nuances of this hobby...nothing i say is absolute ...aka please dont pick out 1 or 2 instances as an example for dispelling a theory as i said nothing is absolute....but if the shoe fits...wear it
imho
the tpg have figured out a way to take the "system" up from a 100 million dollar business plan in 1986 by grading all the coins there are to a 500 million dollar one today ... why???....to give the market what they think it really wants and that is anointing the best..(I CALL IT RANKING COINS)..then the under best...then the 3rd runner up and so on..as that is a big part of collecting ( i did say big part not the only part ).....how?? by grading it so by the number on the coin where as over the last 20 years they keep grading higher coins that they feel deserve to move up and leaving others behind.....this is also called grade flation .....which is very hard for many to understand...aka how can a coin have a 67 on it one day and a 68 the next....but if you think about its like a strainer which gets smaller and smaller constantly weeding out coins until what i call ....THEY ARE RANKED .......... you have to admit the chase for many is the best or under best...or 3rd runner up....or at least a coin in shouting distance .... ....thus i have always chased coins that subscribe to my bum phillips ( my old football coach ) theory when talking about earl campbell ...." if he isnt the best there is it wont take long to call the role"....that covers the very top end of the market.....then you have another tier and that is great coins with fantastic luster and great look ....these coins are also heavily sought after by those who know coins and appreciate them for what they are...great coins ....these coins imho are also under appreciated today and imho are great values at todays prices ....then there is another tier and that is generic coins where as for many commems in the series there are hundreds of examples ....the only way these go up is when the demand increases and reduces the supply ( econ 101 )....with the mint being the biggest coin dealer there is and so many falling into the mints marketing program and spending millions on modern coins that were just made where as there are ( or will be ) tens or hundreds of ms 70 coins made in each date....thus greatly reducing the absurd prices now being paid ....these collectors hopefully will evolve to a more value orientated series and one being commems....that is if they arent sickened by their losses first....hopefully some will endure and caulk it up to their learning curve and proceed in the hobby...now please no modern guys say...but...but... but....i know your ms 70 pop 1 of 2 years ago is now a pop 6...dont wait until it gets to a pop 20 as there is no higher grade than 70 so your ms 70 has hit the proverbial ceiling and cant be " ranked" any higher....thus with a swelling pop.... if there arent 21 people wanting it it wont go up in value
as laura said >>>> highly doubt there are more than a small handful of people out there building high grade sets at the moment. >>>>
she is right on the money as there are only about 10 players seeking aka king monsters....or the under monster and so on ...and if another monster seeker enters the market she can and will help them with their goal and has done so for many years and she has put some of her monsters into my collection starting with my pan pac which she out maneuvered shepherd for about 15 years ago ...
imho there are about 25 astute and knowledgeable collectors seeking what i call great coins in the holders they are in and the look they have .. incase anyone didn't know laura is also a devote collector at heart and quite frankly has a passion for great commems....that being said she knows commems like the back of her hand and she is right on the money when she says this
>>>>If you can handpick NICE PRETTY coins that are accurately graded, you WILL do well. Commems are probably 5x cheaper than they should be. >>>>
the reason is value....and while she and i have never talked about moderns im sure she would much rather you but your hard earned money into a series like commems one that has a much better mathematical chance of increasing in value do to the demand/supply ratio.....as the supply is very much limited when compared to moderns
now again please no modern guys get mad here....its just that there really are way too many made and you would be amazed at how many there will be
i remember when jay parino was exiting the hobby and selling at the fun show and she said to me....." get over to jay`s table and buy his classics...your crazy if you dont " ....i came back with a few classics i bought and showed her...one of which was a 1834 bust quarter which i paid 14,000.....last year someone relieved me of that great coin for 60,000....so i can assure you she knows the market...and has known it all along
one more ditty
some years ago i wrote an article and posted it on legends sight....she might go find it as it talks about how to succeed in this hobby talking about
go where the monsters show up
deal with the monster dealers
buy great coins
or you could go here to see another one i wrote
ok...im done
L8R
gregg bingham
http://www.commems.org/articles.html
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
Cheers,
Bob
<< <i>I've said it before, and I'll say it again...if these were any other coins with these mintage figures they would be going for Moon money. Nowhere else would you be able to purchase a coin with a mintage of under 5,000 for a hundred bucks or so. >>
But these aren't regular coins. Are commems more like SCDs than circulating coins?
The vast majority of commems never circulated so that makes them less interesting to certain collectors. Some of the commemorated events are also very insignificant in the overall scheme of things, and less significant than some of the larger SCD events.
<< <i>But these aren't regular coins. Are commems more like SCDs than circulating coins? >>
THESE commems circulated. And there were a whole lot more. As a matter of fact, I believe the remainder of unsold Columbians were released for circulation. On the other hand, SCD's were medals and had no monetary value.
<< <i>THESE commems circulated. And there were a whole lot more. As a matter of fact, I believe the remainder of unsold Columbians were released for circulation. >>
Someone circulated a 1982 silver Washington half? I would like to pick that up for 50 cents
Are the circulated ones the exception rather than the rule? There seem to be a lot of uncirculated classic commems out there.
out in the future? sure seems like it.
stuff made to be collected, never seems to hold its value..
stuff that was used and tossed away when worn out, that is
the stuff people will pay good money for now days in great
condition.
classic commems fall into the category of purposely marketed
collectable crap, even though quite old.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Sid Gilman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
That Oregon looks nuked???
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
why thankyou mike
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>Hey, I'm still interested in buying a specific dated Oregon Trail that has the right look. >>>>how is this look >>
Nice but I only buy 19__ 's
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Don
Bruce Scher
<< <i>Great post monsterman...thanks for sharing your insight.
Bruce Scher >>
<< <i>>>>>I think people should not buy these coins..they seem way overpriced..
especially high end commems...stay away from em..at least for a while...
Bruce Scher >>>>
i totally agree.....people should not buy these coins...stay away until may 13th when the auction is over :-)
now for my hobby notes...imho...but 1st a caveat ....these are my thoughts based on 3 decades in the hobby and learning the nuances of this hobby...nothing i say is absolute ...aka please dont pick out 1 or 2 instances as an example for dispelling a theory as i said nothing is absolute....but if the shoe fits...wear it
imho
the tpg have figured out a way to take the "system" up from a 100 million dollar business plan in 1986 by grading all the coins there are to a 500 million dollar one today ... why???....to give the market what they think it really wants and that is anointing the best..(I CALL IT RANKING COINS)..then the under best...then the 3rd runner up and so on..as that is a big part of collecting ( i did say big part not the only part ).....how?? by grading it so by the number on the coin where as over the last 20 years they keep grading higher coins that they feel deserve to move up and leaving others behind.....this is also called grade flation .....which is very hard for many to understand...aka how can a coin have a 67 on it one day and a 68 the next....but if you think about its like a strainer which gets smaller and smaller constantly weeding out coins until what i call ....THEY ARE RANKED .......... you have to admit the chase for many is the best or under best...or 3rd runner up....or at least a coin in shouting distance .... ....thus i have always chased coins that subscribe to my bum phillips ( my old football coach ) theory when talking about earl campbell ...." if he isnt the best there is it wont take long to call the role"....that covers the very top end of the market.....then you have another tier and that is great coins with fantastic luster and great look ....these coins are also heavily sought after by those who know coins and appreciate them for what they are...great coins ....these coins imho are also under appreciated today and imho are great values at todays prices ....then there is another tier and that is generic coins where as for many commems in the series there are hundreds of examples ....the only way these go up is when the demand increases and reduces the supply ( econ 101 )....with the mint being the biggest coin dealer there is and so many falling into the mints marketing program and spending millions on modern coins that were just made where as there are ( or will be ) tens or hundreds of ms 70 coins made in each date....thus greatly reducing the absurd prices now being paid ....these collectors hopefully will evolve to a more value orientated series and one being commems....that is if they arent sickened by their losses first....hopefully some will endure and caulk it up to their learning curve and proceed in the hobby...now please no modern guys say...but...but... but....i know your ms 70 pop 1 of 2 years ago is now a pop 6...dont wait until it gets to a pop 20 as there is no higher grade than 70 so your ms 70 has hit the proverbial ceiling and cant be " ranked" any higher....thus with a swelling pop.... if there arent 21 people wanting it it wont go up in value
as laura said >>>> highly doubt there are more than a small handful of people out there building high grade sets at the moment. >>>>
she is right on the money as there are only about 10 players seeking aka king monsters....or the under monster and so on ...and if another monster seeker enters the market she can and will help them with their goal and has done so for many years and she has put some of her monsters into my collection starting with my pan pac which she out maneuvered shepherd for about 15 years ago ...
Then, there are the guys like me...who have been quietly acquiring a true monster set over the years from top dealers. These are put away and won't see the light of day for years to come. When's the last time you saw a top notch, attractively toned Delaware in PCGS 67, for example? I've got one in hand, right now. Ditto for a 65 Hawaiian with real red and green in it?
imho there are about 25 astute and knowledgeable collectors seeking what i call great coins in the holders they are in and the look they have .. incase anyone didn't know laura is also a devote collector at heart and quite frankly has a passion for great commems....that being said she knows commems like the back of her hand and she is right on the money when she says this
See my above comments. I can add that having a complete typeset, waiting for upgrades now (in grade or higher grade, both based on quality of coins not slab number) is a lengthy process. It's largely dependent on where you rank on the top dealer's "first chance" lists.
>>>>If you can handpick NICE PRETTY coins that are accurately graded, you WILL do well. Commems are probably 5x cheaper than they should be. >>>>
Probably?????
the reason is value....and while she and i have never talked about moderns im sure she would much rather you but your hard earned money into a series like commems one that has a much better mathematical chance of increasing in value do to the demand/supply ratio.....as the supply is very much limited when compared to moderns
All too true, IMHO
now again please no modern guys get mad here....its just that there really are way too many made and you would be amazed at how many there will be
I just made the 18th PR70DCAM in a platinum $10. series last month. To think that coin is worth 5x to 10x more than the same coin in PR69DCAM is crazy. In time, these folks will come around to classic traditional coins.
one more ditty
some years ago i wrote an article and posted it on legends sight....she might go find it as it talks about how to succeed in this hobby talking about
go where the monsters show up
deal with the monster dealers
Ah, but some of the best are also some of the very most quiet. They go by word of mouth. You don't tell your neighbor who the great babysitters are, do you?
buy great coins
gregg bingham
I bow before one of the truly great ones. I cherish your old, sweetly toned, Grant with Star that is now put away for a good, long time.
http://www.commems.org/articles.html >>
<< <i>ok...im computer challenged..thus you have to click da coin >>
Gregg, I got one about 80 percent close to that, including an obverse Indian with red skin in PCGS 68
However, it's not for sale.
i know you have many monsters.....a certain grant star comes to mind which results in a substancial coin woody...:-)
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>I LOVE classic commems. I have been bullish on them for years. However, sugar coat it all you want, they absolutely ARE in the DUMPER right now. You can buy coins like an MS65 Elgin for practically NO premium over an AU coin! And high grade pieces-forgettabout it! >>
As a collector, I've looked at this as an opportunity to start building a nice "Bang for the Buck" set. High grades don't interest me as much as attractive, middle-grade coins that are actually PQ for the grade -- a really nice Pilgrim in 64 or Sesqui in 63 picked from a typical large show selection is a steal when you look at the prices one grade up. When you compare the artwork with modern commems, you realize how much more bang for the buck you get with the classics (except for a few, like York, New Rochelle, Spanish Trail). The art deco style of many of the 1930s issues, while not everyone's cup of tea, is in stark contrast to the sterile captioned illustrations of today's.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
<< <i>>>>>Gregg, I got one about 80 percent close to that, including an obverse Indian with red skin in PCGS 68
i know you have many monsters.....a certain grant star comes to mind which results in a substancial coin woody...:-) >>
Hehehe, considering it is one of your greatest "throwbacks" for those of us who are that next rung of the ladder under you and Bruce, I will take that as a high compliment indeed from one of the masters.
30,000 of new orleans criminals are still on the streets here in spite of spending 100 million on police over time trying to catch them
you see the dumb a$$ mayor forgot to think......bad move for a mayor he just let them all in
the warden is out of jail cells....he says it would take 10 years to build enough cells...the da is under water and his desk is piled to the ceiling with files
so they just process 5,000 and release 5,000...leaving....you guesed it 30,000 more crimiinals on the streets
houses here have lost 6 figures in value....businesses have had to hire armed guards...at the fookin grocery store mind you
called 9-11 last week and got put on hold!!!
evryone here is packing guns now ....heck ive shot 2 already
i dont know where jackson or sharpton are ....nor where the bleeding heart libs are or the national media...guess they will come right after they apologise to the duke lacross team
all the tv stations have crime trackers he now and report it at 10 pm news...
if it werent for oil at 65 a barrel we would be a ghost town...
but if you googled or u-tubed youd see
i dont know if this url will come through but meet my neighbors
as they say a picture tells a thousand words...welcome to the new murder capital of the world...not to mention rape,assault,robery and car jacking
other than that all is greaaaat!
monsterman
ps....still lookin for some bleeding heart lib recruits to come edumacate these people so they can get some skill and provide for themselves ...so if you know any ....have them come on down and make a difference....but personally i remeber a coach once told me you cant make chicken salad out of chiiken sheet
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
roadrunner