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Is a one point upgrade worth 100 times the value ?
STEWARTBLAYNUMIS
Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭
I can buy a very high end ms 67 red 1935 Lincoln cent for $100.
Why is the value of an ms 68 red 1935 Lincoln cent $10,000 ?
The pop in ms 68 red is 5
The pop in ms 67 red is 378
Stewart
Why is the value of an ms 68 red 1935 Lincoln cent $10,000 ?
The pop in ms 68 red is 5
The pop in ms 67 red is 378
Stewart
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There are more collectors who want them than supply.
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Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
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Wouldn't you willingly sacrifice an hour's wage for a one point upgrade to the finest?
<< <i>Is a one point upgrade worth 100 times the value? >>
Not to me in most any conceivable scenario, and definately not in the one you describe.
The difference in actual appearance between even an accurately graded 1935 Lincoln in 67 RD and 68 RD would be so minute as to be, for all practical purposes, meaningless. Even someone who buys coins based strictly on labels (and doesn't even look at the coins in your example) would have to be concerned that the underpop was sufficiently large that the pop of 68 RDs would inevitably increase over time.
On the other hand, I am a believer in paying strong premiums for condition rarities if they are spectacular, and if they are sufficiently finer than the next tier down to truly be considered condition rarities.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>At first blush - no. But on second thought - it depends. Suppose that represents only a part of a day's wage for somebody, or even an hour's wage - it's all relative.
Wouldn't you willingly sacrifice an hour's wage for a one point upgrade to the finest? >>
Oh man, I'm saving that!
Russ, NCNE
Similarly, many AU58s are infinitely more aesthetically pleasing than MS60-61 pieces, yet the latter go for more money... often much more. Quite frequently an AU58 is a 63 or 64 with a rub... Technically, yes MS60 and MS61 are higher grade coins, but most 60s and 61s are beaten like they're a pinata and someone wasn't wearing a blindfold. I'll take most AU55-58s any day.
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<< <i>At first blush - no. But on second thought - it depends. Suppose that represents only a part of a day's wage for somebody, or even an hour's wage - it's all relative.
Wouldn't you willingly sacrifice an hour's wage for a one point upgrade to the finest? >>
Its all perspective. Think about guys like Paul Allen. I want to watch my TV shows when ever and where ever I want, so I go buy a satelite just for myself. $10K for what you want is to some people trivial.
Ahhh - but that's a different subject of discussion!
<< <i><<< Is a one point upgrade worth 100 times the value ? >>>
Only in the world of plastic and Registry Sets.
Before we had the grading services to tell us what all our coins are now worth and all the big game trophy hunters paying absurd prices for labels in many cases, a superb gem coin (MS67) typically brought about 10X what a gem (MS65) coin would bring, and a world class superb gem (MS67++) would maybe bring 3-7X what a superb gem would bring.
There is also the fact to consider is the worst holdered MS68 coin really a better coin then the best holdered MS67 coin, and would the MS68 holdered coin still be worth 100X as much if both were raw and placed side by side? I think the saavy collector will always choose the very best MS67 coin and then get it into a 68 holder one day
Before we had the slabbing companies there was no internet. Before we had the registry
sets we still had people who sought out the finest coins. Of course in those days it was ex-
ceedingly difficult to find the finest 1935 cent because people didn't pay much attention to
such things so most of those with rolls or collections didn't look and wouldn't have advertised
to sell them. When I started collecting there wasn't much of a premium at all for quality. Sure,
a gem would sell much faster than a dog but it wouldn't necessarily sell at a premium. The quest
for quality has been a growing trend for several decades and this was not caused by the grading
companies nor the registries.
<< <i>
<< <i><<< Is a one point upgrade worth 100 times the value ? >>>
Only in the world of plastic and Registry Sets.
Before we had the grading services to tell us what all our coins are now worth and all the big game trophy hunters paying absurd prices for labels in many cases, a superb gem coin (MS67) typically brought about 10X what a gem (MS65) coin would bring, and a world class superb gem (MS67++) would maybe bring 3-7X what a superb gem would bring.
There is also the fact to consider is the worst holdered MS68 coin really a better coin then the best holdered MS67 coin, and would the MS68 holdered coin still be worth 100X as much if both were raw and placed side by side? I think the saavy collector will always choose the very best MS67 coin and then get it into a 68 holder one day
Before we had the slabbing companies there was no internet. Before we had the registry
sets we still had people who sought out the finest coins. Of course in those days it was ex-
ceedingly difficult to find the finest 1935 cent because people didn't pay much attention to
such things so most of those with rolls or collections didn't look and wouldn't have advertised
to sell them. When I started collecting there wasn't much of a premium at all for quality. Sure,
a gem would sell much faster than a dog but it wouldn't necessarily sell at a premium. The quest
for quality has been a growing trend for several decades and this was not caused by the grading
companies nor the registries. >>
Technology, TPGs and an increasingly sophisticated market have enabled collectors/investors to make evermore finer discriminations as to where they put their money. I still just collect what I can!
<< <i>How about a 1945 Merc that's worth $30 in MS65, but over $10K in MS65FB? >>
It takes a much more rational and inteligent person than myself to understand things like this. I guess I'll maintain my ignorance in numismatics. They do say ignorance is bliss.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Wouldn't you willingly sacrifice an hour's wage for a one point upgrade to the finest?
NFW would I pay $9900 for a half point upgrade on a 1935 cent, not even if it was only a minute's wages. It's not like I have to spend all my money on Lincolns. I'd rather put the money into something else or give it to a worthy charity.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Suppose that represents only a part of a day's wage for somebody, or even an hour's wage - it's all relative.
Wouldn't you willingly sacrifice an hour's wage for a one point upgrade to the finest?
NFW would I pay $9900 for a half point upgrade on a 1935 cent, not even if it was only a minute's wages. It's not like I have to spend all my money on Lincolns. I'd rather put the money into something else or give it to a worthy charity. >>
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Not to me.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i><< Is a one point upgrade worth 100 times the value ? >>
Not to me.
So if an ugly MS60 is for sale for two cents and a nice MS61 costs $2, you'll pass?
<< <i>Yes, I'm certain there are plenty of people that feel the same. Yet there are plenty that don't. Combine the willingness to waste $10k on frivolities [expensive wine, first class tickets to Europe, etc] with the expectation that one's money is recoverable down the line and the challenge to build the finest set on paper and 'bingo' - you've got $10k condition rarity common date coins. >>
True... but $10K can still buy some terrific examples of rare coins that are still in a lofty state of preservation...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I can see spending ten grand on a rare wine. Given sufficient wealth and a sufficient appreciation of fine wines, I could also see drinking it. (Someone's gotta do it, might as well be me!) But spending ten grand on a common Lincoln would make me feel like an idiot, which is one of my least favorite things. I'll pass.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
If I MADE $10,000 an hour I guess I might ! ....what can I get for $20.00?
TDN: In reply to your above quoted question, I would pass on the ugly coin, no matter what the value. I personally would not pay even an order of magnitude (10x) more for a coin one grade higher.
I think that coin grades are less important than high eye appeal. It's just a statement of my personal collecting preference.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>Combine the willingness to waste $10k on frivolities [expensive wine, first class tickets to Europe, etc] with ... and 'bingo' - you've got $10k condition rarity common date coins.
I can see spending ten grand on a rare wine. Given sufficient wealth and a sufficient appreciation of fine wines, I could also see drinking it. (Someone's gotta do it, might as well be me!) But spending ten grand on a common Lincoln would make me feel like an idiot, which is one of my least favorite things. I'll pass. >>
But you are an expert, with preconceived notions regarding coin value. Some people have lots of money and none of those preconceived notions.
I spend $10k all the time on one point upgrades ... it's not so farfetched to me. I agree that for significant money I'd much rather have a PQ undergrade for 1/100th the overgrade ... but some wouldn't. And there would be some lower price level where I'd play the game ... as would most of us.
It would be more unusual if someone paid even 10 times the under grade on an already expensive rare date.
Like the 1904-S barber half in MS 66-- at over $50,000, would even the ego maniac pay $500,000? for the only 67?
NO
But if the MS 67 only trades for $100, like the common date lincoln, $10,000 is not out of reach. Stupid, but not as unlikely as the Barber half example.
We have the same escalation in prices for the colorfully toned commems. 67's that would trade for $400(if white), but a 68 might bring $20,000. Again, it may seem stupid, but some pretty smart collectors have done well in this upper strata.
Stewart, what would you pay for the top pop 1909-svdb lincoln in MS 68, that was truly nicer than any of the 67's?
There have been plenty of examples posted here for the same coin submitted repeatedly.
<< <i>How about a 1945 Merc that's worth $30 in MS65, but over $10K in MS65FB?
Russ, NCNE >>
Not quite the same thing. I can't find my pre-TPG Redbook, but I'm pretty sure that there's been quite the premium on that particular coin for quite some time. Set registries have made it a bigger one.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
These aren't "preconceived notions". They're opinions based on knowledge and experience.
Some people have lots of money and none of those preconceived notions.
Again, it's not so much "preconceived notions" that are lacking. What they truly lack are knowledge, experience and numismatic perspective.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I can buy a very high end ms 67 red 1935 Lincoln cent for $100.
Why is the value of an ms 68 red 1935 Lincoln cent $10,000 ?
The pop in ms 68 red is 5
The pop in ms 67 red is 378
Stewart >>
More perplexing may be the question, "Why is the value of an MS68RD 1935 Lincoln cent, at least 20% of which must be low end $10,000?"
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
Don't get me wrong . . . if the thought of having one of 5 MS68s in the world is exciting to you . . .the feeling is probably identical to the one I get when I display one of my eye-appealing MS67s. It's just different . . .not better or worse.
Drunner
These aren't "preconceived notions". They're opinions based on knowledge and experience.
A rose, by any other name ....
With a pop difference of around 75 to 1, the most one should theoretically pay imo is 75X the price of the MS67 or $7500. But let's apply the rule of 2 to 3. A price halving typically occurs on a doubling to tripling of the population. Roughly speaking that's either 2 to the 6th power or 3 to the 4th. $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600, $3200, $6400.
Why I'd not be a buyer of said coin, a price in the $1600 to $6400 range makes more sense to me than $10,000.
roadrunner
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>My answer is no. But then, I'm a guy who collects 200 year old coins in grades like "very good" >>
Baley, IMO, 200 year old coins are very collectible and in fairly high demand in grades like VG. Especially if there are no problems with the coin. I love buying these kind of coins, because I know they'll sell!
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
In certain areas of life, what seems ridiculously expensive today, may seem like a bargain tomorrow. Who has vision? Six years ago, I let a dealer talk me out of buying a PCGS PR66RD 1909 VDB Matte Proof for $20,000. He said it was insane and we could find one cheaper. I wish I had stood up and bought it anyway.
If you step up and pay 100 times the cost for a one point upgrade then you will ALWAYS pay 100 times the cost for a one point upgrade.
If you like A$$holes taking shots at you ALL the time.........
Go For It......and smile when you bend over
Stewart
Especially if the motivation to pay 100x for a 1 point upgrade is due to a COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE (the grade itself), WHOLLY ARTIFICIAL, EXTRINSICLY IMPOSED, MARKETING PLOY created by a compny called PCGS.
Lotsa people have more money than brains - particularly when they know there are others like themselves (so as to see an exit strategy on the horizon if one is ever needed).