ATTEMPT to CONFIRM PLAT MINTAGES
7over8
Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
As of 12/12, per NN issue 12/26, the following sales of coins were recorded and published for Plat 2006-W Unc's
1 oz 484
1/2 oz 573
1/4 oz 670
1/10 oz 1,759
4 cn 1,505
We were told that at sellout, the ESTIMATED final mintages were -
1 oz 500
1/2 oz 650
1/4 oz 700
1/10 oz 1,700
4 cn 2,000
In an attempt to confirm what we have been told and read in these publications, anyone who ordered on 12/13 or after, who has a coin that has been rec'd or currently on backorder (not cancelled) - lets tally the results and try to account for the final numbers
Start with the 1 oz to be less confusing.
1 oz 484
1/2 oz 573
1/4 oz 670
1/10 oz 1,759
4 cn 1,505
We were told that at sellout, the ESTIMATED final mintages were -
1 oz 500
1/2 oz 650
1/4 oz 700
1/10 oz 1,700
4 cn 2,000
In an attempt to confirm what we have been told and read in these publications, anyone who ordered on 12/13 or after, who has a coin that has been rec'd or currently on backorder (not cancelled) - lets tally the results and try to account for the final numbers
Start with the 1 oz to be less confusing.
0
Comments
Of course, off forum purchases account for a higher population of orders,
but I think we have some large purchases on this forum to show that these mintages are a little fishy
and Bear to pick up this poll,
interest is waning, or no one wants to know the truth....
John
I am sure that they will be happy to give
you accurate information to all of your questions
and concerns.
Camelot
As for asking the mint Bear - you know how far that gets us...
We can prove or disprove the numbers easily....
I think you had a thread a week or so ago that could not make heads or tails (pardon the pun) on the 16 1 oz'ers ordered between 12/12 and sellout - the answers per the forum members was well in excess of 16......
Something is definitely wrong with the numbers.....
My thoughts.
Is there a precedent for the mint releasing numbers that led people (us) to believe the final mintage will end up substantially over the (then) reported total?
Honest question.
FloridaBill
Box of 20
I believe , as do most, that the Mint is in this game to sell as many coins as they can without regard for the secondary market or collectors having any gains on this stuff in the near future.
If the mint in all its wisdom believed that there would be a surge in sales in mid December, as happened, as most of us predicted, they would be prepared with sufficient stock.
Just as we could call this to be a low mintage beauty based on run rates of sales through oct and nov, so could the mint expect a surge in sales in mid december, traditionally when they stop minting current year coins and get busy with 2007 issues, and mint a few 100 more.
I still believe that this issue is a winner, and low mintage at that, but not as low as reported.
There were a ton of cancellations and re-buys that hit the system before close-outs, then outright cancellations. I did about 4-5 cancellations and re-buys’s before I settled on my orders. Now add the Credit Card troubles by over-eager buyers in the 2-3 day frenzy at the end and this will account for the huge fluctuation and some of the no-show orders out there.
When I talked to a Mint Rep a week ago she explained that when an order is received they hit the card to check funds available within 24 hrs of order receipt. All of the 100’s of Credit Card companies out there have different policies when this is done; some CC’s charge it immediately, other CC’s set the amount aside from the available credit balance; other CC companies do nothing.
Many CC’s kick over charges to security when hits and cancels occur on the card and freeze the account regardless if credit is there. (Happened to me)
If a reject is hit, the Mint waits 1-2 days and hits the card again. If that is rejected, the let the order hang and try to call the Buyer, most of the time they just let the order will fall off.
NN has been 'spot on' all year and I see no reason to believe otherwise.
They had the Anniv. Silver set numbers, right up until the sellout.
They had, as of Nov. 6th (monday) - 235,000 silver anniv. set sold. The next week, Tuesday (Nov. 14) the first message came from the Mint that a 'list' was being created.
Of course anything can happen, but 100 one way or the other, wouldn't make a difference.
Quit being paranoid and enjoy the coins.
As for credit card issues, the mint NEVER calls the customer, its up to you to clear up your issues, its two tries and you are cancelled.
I am a big fan of these Platinum coins and have been posting about this being a potential for a super low mintage issue for 2 months, and still believe it to be a real low mintage, but, the numbers are not correct.
The 1/2 and 1 ounce reported mintages are understated.
Do you work for the Mint and have a line?
Or does your hair dresser just know for sure?
<< <i>Why are you so 'smart' and everyone else so dumb?
Do you work for the Mint and have a line?
Or does your hair dresser just know for sure? >>
Mintage numbers won't be factual until the RED BOOK prints it
Just my 2 cents
FloridaBill
The numbers don't lie, and if you look at them and see the abnormal low growth in pieces sold compared with surging orders in the final week, most would expect the numbers to be higher. That combined with orders yet to be filled through 1/13......adds up to several hundred more coins minted.
If you want to believe that the 500 number is good, then go ahead - so be it.
The only thing that can hurt these coins from skyrocketing in price in the longer term is if the USM gets into lower and lower mintage issues.....thus hurting long term growth of this issue.
<< <i>I read in another thread that platinum spiked a few weeks back and then came down and that maybe when it did a lot of sets were cancelled. Who knows. >>
That is a very good point. There was a 1 day spike above $1350 on Nov. 21st.
I along with probably many others placed large orders on that day most of which were cancelled over next week as prices dropped below $1200.
however, the beloved, NN figures dont show any dropoff in the numbers over that period, rather a ramping up when you would expect a reversal
in fact the numbers "hover" close to the final numbers as published for 2 week prior to sellout......
so everyone believes there was a scant 16 1 oz coins sold in 1 week (12/12-12/19)
If you believe that, there is a big bridge I have for sale
You say the Mint never goes against precedent and wouldn't ‘under stamp’ the number of 1 oz….hmmmm…
1.) The Mint in EVERY year reported always Mints more Platinum $25 coin than Platinum $50, yet if we go by the report, this is the FIRST YEAR in 10, they didn't. The $50 is the hardest to stamp.
That seems like a huge precedent to me.
2.) Any final number that comes out is still the lowest mintage in almost 100 years.
That seems like a huge precedent to me.
But what do I know? Can’t let facts get in the way of juicy speculation!
That fact, is for BOTH Proof and Unc Mintages for the entire series of Plat coinage since inception.
Wondercoin
The $25 or 1/4 oz is at a much more tolerable price point under $500.
Generally more $10's are minted than $25's , and more $25's than $50's.
The difference comes when you hit the "increment" of choice - the 1 oz or $100. There are generally more 1 oz'ers minted than $50's. Why? Because it is the full "unit" and denomination of choice.
As for credit card issues, the mint NEVER calls the customer, its up to you to clear up your issues, its two tries and you are cancelled.
I'll call BS on that one. I've been called, and mailed.
There is a lot of money involved with owning these coins and some will stop at nothing to put doubt into the minds of weak Plat holders. It is too bad some fall for it.
I was one of the old timers on the HealthSouth message board when the scandal broke open. Many of us picked up shares at 4 cents to .49 cents. The shares now trade near $22 after a reverse 5-1 split. The point is that posters who wanted shares bashed and bashed as the weak hands sold into the BS. Weak hands don't do their homework and doubt the good fortune they have, despite everything being in front of them that says it is good! All it takes is a sharp operator with a few pals and you TALK anyone into selling.
I could be wrong, but I give that possibility about as much as a chance that 7by8’s coin order is real.
you can take one off the resale list for the 1/4 oz
this sweetheart is already locked up in the safety deposit box for the next 20 years.
<< <i>Personally, I have now factored in the possibility of their
being upward of 1,000 $100 coins and not 500.
That said, I am buying sealed sets today at $3,800/set >>
Whoa! That's mighty nice of ya'! I love it when people, especially
dealers, make offers based on speculation. Especially when they
know these are still going to skyrocket in value. It's amazing how
they can justify their offers. The key operative word here being
"possibility." How subtle!
Please stop!!! Sounds like an act of desperation!
I'm striving to maintain some respect for you and others here.
These low offers for the coins end up in every post I read!
It's almost as annoying as advertising and a nagging wife!
Offers belong on the BST!
The main thing is that anyone and everyone who got at least one coin
owns a part of numismatic history! Accept it! Deal with it! Enjoy it!
Box of 20
im not playing anyone or have any other motive in my posts other than seeking FACTUAL information on these mintages
why must you resort to thinking someone is trying to "get over on you" or get nasty when you can't intellectually answer the post with factual evidence.
I hold many of these coins (probably many more than you) and have not made one offer to buy ANY, and I dont intend to, I have enough
one thing I dont do is "drink the kool aid" like many of you have from the very start with regard to these mintage numbers.
time will tell who is right and who is wrong
You are the one with about 150 posts explaining how your order was goofed up, but it wasn't your CC, you had it on authority that it was a waiting list, blaa, blaa, blaaa bla bla..
You are shaking for coins, which is fine.
I just pointed it out.
Looking at the Mint's published data, one would conclude that the Kings of the Series are the 2005s, not the 2004s. (Of course, that ignores what happened in 2006.) But really, does anyone have a bead on the real 2005 data? Thanks.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>coinboy
im not playing anyone or have any other motive in my posts other than seeking FACTUAL information on these mintages >>
Numismatic News Mintage Figures.
Compiled December 26, 2006 - Numbers provided by the US Mint.
I guess these figures are no surprise to those on this forum!
SoundPoint
Happy New Year!
you are just uninformed.
I have three small orders left to be filled (which prompted me to seek the truth in these mintages), 97% of mine are filled and in hand and i have bulk grading orders at pcgs right now.
i have not and will not be looking for any coins for sale.
John
you are correct, even at if the minatge number increases by 500 on the 1 oz coin, this is still an excellent buy and the first of a three part series.
this will also bring interest to the upcoming 10th anniversary platinum sets, to be released in 2007.
You just posted: "I have three small orders left to be filled (which prompted me to seek the truth in these mintages), 97% of mine are filled and in hand and I have bulk grading orders at PCGS right now"
You, me and many others here have bulk plat gradings on the way to PCGS, but so what? Lets go further to why I think your motives are more than what you claim:
1.) It was your 30-40+ posts concerning the above "three small orders left to be filled " that sent up a little flag for me. A bit of over-kill for a very common problem, me thinks....
2.) The fib : "the mint NEVER calls the customer" which is wrong; I have gotten a call on a non-plat order and so has another poster, I am sure we could start a thread or a poll on that, but lets move on...into your 'facts' that are suggesting/implying that the mint was filling orders by additional production, which we all know is economically and logistically, absurd.
3.) The omniscient proclamation: "1/2 ounce and one ounce coins inventories at Memphis have been depleted and they are awaiting further shipments from the minting facility. There are no wait lists, lots of "good" orders backordered with expected delivery dates of 1/13. This has been confirmed."
4.) The indignant "im not playing anyone or have any other motive in my posts other than seeking FACTUAL information on these mintages"
5.) Then when challenged and accused of worring paranoia, your defensive and quite arrogant retort was: "No paranoia here, just factual evidence , having fun with this group of coin nerds."
Like I said, best of luck on the coin shaking, it is a tough job and someone has to do it.
I totally agree! I feel quite lucky to have moved on them when I did.
The Plats sure are beautiful.
i assume your constant rebuttals are just to ensure the fevor of ultra low numbers exist so you can unload your coins.
if you had any brains in your head you would realize that these mintages are not final. IMO, they will be low, but not as low as published numbers.
you must not be doing this for long. 6 months at best?
I'm breaking my own rules here and posting again......this is it.....no more on this thread from me
Good luck to everyone selling these into the secondary market, if you choose to do so.