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ATTEMPT to CONFIRM PLAT MINTAGES

7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
As of 12/12, per NN issue 12/26, the following sales of coins were recorded and published for Plat 2006-W Unc's

1 oz 484
1/2 oz 573
1/4 oz 670
1/10 oz 1,759
4 cn 1,505

We were told that at sellout, the ESTIMATED final mintages were -

1 oz 500
1/2 oz 650
1/4 oz 700
1/10 oz 1,700
4 cn 2,000

In an attempt to confirm what we have been told and read in these publications, anyone who ordered on 12/13 or after, who has a coin that has been rec'd or currently on backorder (not cancelled) - lets tally the results and try to account for the final numbers

Start with the 1 oz to be less confusing.


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Comments

  • What about the ordering population that did not read your post? And returns?
  • Couldn't you have put this in the thread you already started on mintages?
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Returns can account for a small percentage...true...

    Of course, off forum purchases account for a higher population of orders,

    but I think we have some large purchases on this forum to show that these mintages are a little fishy
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    we need someone like Ericj to comment on this

    and Bear to pick up this poll,

    interest is waning, or no one wants to know the truth....
  • John91CJohn91C Posts: 304 ✭✭✭
    Why should we count the backordered ones...the possiblity is that they won't get theirs. Just like the AGE, ASE sets. I was backordered until they finally cancelled me two weeks ago for the AGE.

    John
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    The easiest way is to just ask the Mint.

    I am sure that they will be happy to give

    you accurate information to all of your questions

    and concerns.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Backordered on the plats is different, no wait list like on the AGE and ASE

    As for asking the mint Bear - you know how far that gets us...

    We can prove or disprove the numbers easily....

    I think you had a thread a week or so ago that could not make heads or tails (pardon the pun) on the 16 1 oz'ers ordered between 12/12 and sellout - the answers per the forum members was well in excess of 16......
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    I , myself, with a few close friends, can account for more than 16 coins ordered after 12/12, delivered already, etc

    Something is definitely wrong with the numbers.....
  • John91CJohn91C Posts: 304 ✭✭✭
    Could NN be wrong?

  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,347 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I do not think everyone has recieved their coins yet. Some may not. The US Mint like any business should accept all orders beyond sellout so as to know how many to produce in 2007. They make the most money when supply meets demand or just slightly shy of it I would suspect. They do not have to store old products and inventory them, or pay to have them melted and re made into coin blanks.

    My thoughts.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    NN is wrong.
  • Just curious,

    Is there a precedent for the mint releasing numbers that led people (us) to believe the final mintage will end up substantially over the (then) reported total?

    Honest question.

    FloridaBill
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,725 ✭✭✭
    I read in another thread that platinum spiked a few weeks back and then came down and that maybe when it did a lot of sets were cancelled. Who knows.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    FloridaBill -

    I believe , as do most, that the Mint is in this game to sell as many coins as they can without regard for the secondary market or collectors having any gains on this stuff in the near future.

    If the mint in all its wisdom believed that there would be a surge in sales in mid December, as happened, as most of us predicted, they would be prepared with sufficient stock.

    Just as we could call this to be a low mintage beauty based on run rates of sales through oct and nov, so could the mint expect a surge in sales in mid december, traditionally when they stop minting current year coins and get busy with 2007 issues, and mint a few 100 more.

    I still believe that this issue is a winner, and low mintage at that, but not as low as reported.
  • I will tell you right now the numbers ARE pretty dang close to what has been reported.

    There were a ton of cancellations and re-buys that hit the system before close-outs, then outright cancellations. I did about 4-5 cancellations and re-buys’s before I settled on my orders. Now add the Credit Card troubles by over-eager buyers in the 2-3 day frenzy at the end and this will account for the huge fluctuation and some of the no-show orders out there.

    When I talked to a Mint Rep a week ago she explained that when an order is received they hit the card to check funds available within 24 hrs of order receipt. All of the 100’s of Credit Card companies out there have different policies when this is done; some CC’s charge it immediately, other CC’s set the amount aside from the available credit balance; other CC companies do nothing.

    Many CC’s kick over charges to security when hits and cancels occur on the card and freeze the account regardless if credit is there. (Happened to me)

    If a reject is hit, the Mint waits 1-2 days and hits the card again. If that is rejected, the let the order hang and try to call the Buyer, most of the time they just let the order will fall off.
  • aficionadoaficionado Posts: 2,309 ✭✭✭

    NN has been 'spot on' all year and I see no reason to believe otherwise.

    They had the Anniv. Silver set numbers, right up until the sellout.

    They had, as of Nov. 6th (monday) - 235,000 silver anniv. set sold. The next week, Tuesday (Nov. 14) the first message came from the Mint that a 'list' was being created.

    Of course anything can happen, but 100 one way or the other, wouldn't make a difference.

    Quit being paranoid and enjoy the coins.

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Coinboy - you too will be surprised in the coming weeks when the one ounce coin hits 1000 pieces....

    As for credit card issues, the mint NEVER calls the customer, its up to you to clear up your issues, its two tries and you are cancelled.

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    No paranoia here, just factual evidence , having fun with this group of coin nerds.

    I am a big fan of these Platinum coins and have been posting about this being a potential for a super low mintage issue for 2 months, and still believe it to be a real low mintage, but, the numbers are not correct.

    The 1/2 and 1 ounce reported mintages are understated.

  • Why are you so 'smart' and everyone else so dumb?

    Do you work for the Mint and have a line?

    Or does your hair dresser just know for sure?




  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,514 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Why are you so 'smart' and everyone else so dumb?

    Do you work for the Mint and have a line?

    Or does your hair dresser just know for sure? >>


    image

    Mintage numbers won't be factual until the RED BOOK prints it image That's my opinion. Everything else is speculation.
  • Hmmm…me smells an attempt to get us to sell the plats on the cheap…Big time marketers, for once, got ambushed by us little people on this forum (THANK YOU ERIC). Maybe for the first time in history the “little people” have the upper hand…AND THEY ARE NOT SELLING!

    Just my 2 cents

    FloridaBill

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Nope, never was or will be a gov't employee.

    The numbers don't lie, and if you look at them and see the abnormal low growth in pieces sold compared with surging orders in the final week, most would expect the numbers to be higher. That combined with orders yet to be filled through 1/13......adds up to several hundred more coins minted.

    If you want to believe that the 500 number is good, then go ahead - so be it.



  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    As most of you will do as well, I am not a seller of my coins at current levels. This can and will go much higher.

    The only thing that can hurt these coins from skyrocketing in price in the longer term is if the USM gets into lower and lower mintage issues.....thus hurting long term growth of this issue.
  • Definately potential for problems with credit cards. Their security features flag anything odd or out of the usual. I have a card with a very high limit but even with that I still sometimes call ahead to confirm large hits when they are coming.


  • << <i>I read in another thread that platinum spiked a few weeks back and then came down and that maybe when it did a lot of sets were cancelled. Who knows. >>




    That is a very good point. There was a 1 day spike above $1350 on Nov. 21st.
    I along with probably many others placed large orders on that day most of which were cancelled over next week as prices dropped below $1200.
  • I'd like to know what is the production the Mint gets out of a die running through Platinum blanks.
  • The 1/4 oz may end up being the king.
    Successful BST transactions: clackamas, goldman86, alohagary, rodzm, bigmarty58, Hyperion, segoja, levinll, dmarks
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    good point about plat pricing in late nov spiking and possibly having effect on orders with subsequent cancellations....

    however, the beloved, NN figures dont show any dropoff in the numbers over that period, rather a ramping up when you would expect a reversal

    in fact the numbers "hover" close to the final numbers as published for 2 week prior to sellout......

    so everyone believes there was a scant 16 1 oz coins sold in 1 week (12/12-12/19)

    If you believe that, there is a big bridge I have for sale
  • I'm just as certain with my numbers as you are with yours.

    You say the Mint never goes against precedent and wouldn't ‘under stamp’ the number of 1 oz….hmmmm…

    1.) The Mint in EVERY year reported always Mints more Platinum $25 coin than Platinum $50, yet if we go by the report, this is the FIRST YEAR in 10, they didn't. The $50 is the hardest to stamp.

    That seems like a huge precedent to me.

    2.) Any final number that comes out is still the lowest mintage in almost 100 years.

    That seems like a huge precedent to me.

    But what do I know? Can’t let facts get in the way of juicy speculation!
  • "The Mint in EVERY year reported always Mints more Platinum $25 coin than Platinum $50, yet if we go by the report, this is the FIRST YEAR in 10, they didn't. "



    That fact, is for BOTH Proof and Unc Mintages for the entire series of Plat coinage since inception. image
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,991 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Personally, I have now factored in the possibility of their being upward of 1,000 $100 coins and not 500. That said, I am buying sealed sets today at $3,800/set (until filled), which is still close to a 65% premium over the US Mint's offering price earlier this month. Whatever the mintage does or does not turn out to be, right now buyers of the sets can cash out for a 65% return in less than a month. That's an annualized return of more than 750% if my math is right. IMHO, not too bad a set regardless of what happens next.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    The $50 or 1/2 oz plat is the black sheep of the set, always has been. For one, it is at a high "price point".

    The $25 or 1/4 oz is at a much more tolerable price point under $500.

    Generally more $10's are minted than $25's , and more $25's than $50's.

    The difference comes when you hit the "increment" of choice - the 1 oz or $100. There are generally more 1 oz'ers minted than $50's. Why? Because it is the full "unit" and denomination of choice.

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Wonder - you also see the situation for what it is, I agree 1000+ single coins for the 1 oz , not 500.
  • You are wavering here...steady boy! image
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭

    As for credit card issues, the mint NEVER calls the customer, its up to you to clear up your issues, its two tries and you are cancelled.

    I'll call BS on that one. I've been called, and mailed.
  • I agree, I think ‘7by8’ is a scammer trying to shake for Plat coins. I did a search and went through his posts. It is quite obvious to me he is playing many here for fools.

    There is a lot of money involved with owning these coins and some will stop at nothing to put doubt into the minds of weak Plat holders. It is too bad some fall for it.

    I was one of the old timers on the HealthSouth message board when the scandal broke open. Many of us picked up shares at 4 cents to .49 cents. The shares now trade near $22 after a reverse 5-1 split. The point is that posters who wanted shares bashed and bashed as the weak hands sold into the BS. Weak hands don't do their homework and doubt the good fortune they have, despite everything being in front of them that says it is good! All it takes is a sharp operator with a few pals and you TALK anyone into selling.

    I could be wrong, but I give that possibility about as much as a chance that 7by8’s coin order is real.
  • image

    you can take one off the resale list for the 1/4 oz
    this sweetheart is already locked up in the safety deposit box for the next 20 years.


  • << <i>Personally, I have now factored in the possibility of their
    being upward of 1,000 $100 coins and not 500.
    That said, I am buying sealed sets today at $3,800/set >>



    Whoa! That's mighty nice of ya'! I love it when people, especially
    dealers, make offers based on speculation. Especially when they
    know these are still going to skyrocket in value. It's amazing how
    they can justify their offers. The key operative word here being
    "possibility." How subtle! image

    Please stop!!! Sounds like an act of desperation!
    I'm striving to maintain some respect for you and others here.
    These low offers for the coins end up in every post I read!
    It's almost as annoying as advertising and a nagging wife!
    Offers belong on the BST!

    The main thing is that anyone and everyone who got at least one coin
    owns a part of numismatic history! Accept it! Deal with it! Enjoy it!
    image
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,991 ✭✭✭✭✭
    CC2GO - I am trading them within a roughly 15% spread. And, of course, the discussion of final mintages of these coins is merely a discussion of the "possibilities" at this point. Heck, it is my view that the Mint's "final" 2005 Proof mintages are still not truly final even to this day. Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,725 ✭✭✭
    Even with a 1000 single issues instead of the 500 of the $100 it still remains a low mintage in the series. 2000 sets + 1000 single issue one ounce=3000. Still one of lowest in the series. Only time will tell. I am in it for the long haul either way.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    coinboy
    im not playing anyone or have any other motive in my posts other than seeking FACTUAL information on these mintages
    why must you resort to thinking someone is trying to "get over on you" or get nasty when you can't intellectually answer the post with factual evidence.
    I hold many of these coins (probably many more than you) and have not made one offer to buy ANY, and I dont intend to, I have enough

    one thing I dont do is "drink the kool aid" like many of you have from the very start with regard to these mintage numbers.
    time will tell who is right and who is wrong

  • LOL! Thanks Jim Jones...

    You are the one with about 150 posts explaining how your order was goofed up, but it wasn't your CC, you had it on authority that it was a waiting list, blaa, blaa, blaaa bla bla..

    You are shaking for coins, which is fine.

    I just pointed it out.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,170 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are there any real mintage figures for the 2005 Plats at this time? I have seen the Mint's webpage, but somewhere along the line, I also saw some larger numbers.

    Looking at the Mint's published data, one would conclude that the Kings of the Series are the 2005s, not the 2004s. (Of course, that ignores what happened in 2006.) But really, does anyone have a bead on the real 2005 data? Thanks.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • SoundPointSoundPoint Posts: 255 ✭✭✭


    << <i>coinboy
    im not playing anyone or have any other motive in my posts other than seeking FACTUAL information on these mintages >>



    Numismatic News Mintage Figures.
    Compiled December 26, 2006 - Numbers provided by the US Mint.

    I guess these figures are no surprise to those on this forum!

    SoundPoint
    Happy New Year!
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    coinboy-
    you are just uninformed.
    I have three small orders left to be filled (which prompted me to seek the truth in these mintages), 97% of mine are filled and in hand and i have bulk grading orders at pcgs right now.
    i have not and will not be looking for any coins for sale.


  • John91CJohn91C Posts: 304 ✭✭✭
    500 or 1000, I don't really care...all that matters to me is that it's the INAUGURAL issue. I think that can be the key importance of this issue. People are going to be looking for this set/coins when they finally figure out there's a 3 part series. The #'s are still pretty low 500 or 1000, so to the few who did buy these coins they are the lucky few! Good thing I missed out on the 20th AGE because that left me with this set, which I think will be a better potential for return in the years to come.

    John
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    John,

    you are correct, even at if the minatge number increases by 500 on the 1 oz coin, this is still an excellent buy and the first of a three part series.
    this will also bring interest to the upcoming 10th anniversary platinum sets, to be released in 2007.
  • If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it is a duck. I just call it the way I read it.


    You just posted: "I have three small orders left to be filled (which prompted me to seek the truth in these mintages), 97% of mine are filled and in hand and I have bulk grading orders at PCGS right now"

    You, me and many others here have bulk plat gradings on the way to PCGS, but so what? Lets go further to why I think your motives are more than what you claim:

    1.) It was your 30-40+ posts concerning the above "three small orders left to be filled " that sent up a little flag for me. A bit of over-kill for a very common problem, me thinks....

    2.) The fib : "the mint NEVER calls the customer" which is wrong; I have gotten a call on a non-plat order and so has another poster, I am sure we could start a thread or a poll on that, but lets move on...into your 'facts' that are suggesting/implying that the mint was filling orders by additional production, which we all know is economically and logistically, absurd.

    3.) The omniscient proclamation: "1/2 ounce and one ounce coins inventories at Memphis have been depleted and they are awaiting further shipments from the minting facility. There are no wait lists, lots of "good" orders backordered with expected delivery dates of 1/13. This has been confirmed."

    4.) The indignant "im not playing anyone or have any other motive in my posts other than seeking FACTUAL information on these mintages"

    5.) Then when challenged and accused of worring paranoia, your defensive and quite arrogant retort was: "No paranoia here, just factual evidence , having fun with this group of coin nerds."

    Like I said, best of luck on the coin shaking, it is a tough job and someone has to do it.
  • John91C


    I totally agree! I feel quite lucky to have moved on them when I did.

    The Plats sure are beautiful.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    your stash of 16 coins you mention does not make a bulk order. 100 plus does.
    i assume your constant rebuttals are just to ensure the fevor of ultra low numbers exist so you can unload your coins.
    if you had any brains in your head you would realize that these mintages are not final. IMO, they will be low, but not as low as published numbers.
    you must not be doing this for long. 6 months at best?
    I'm breaking my own rules here and posting again......this is it.....no more on this thread from me
    Good luck to everyone selling these into the secondary market, if you choose to do so.


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