The real value of silver.

cladking

This has been said a thousand times in a thousand ways
but perhaps Ted Butler has said it in a way everyone will understand. Silver is
dramatically undervalued by any measurement. It is disappearing and there is
so little left at so low a price that the entire supply can be accumulated with only
a small change in psychology or the actions of a few individuals. Its uses are
growing on nearly a daily basis and a reckoning approaches. Whether it's many
years away or in the near future is the only thing open to speculation.

It won't be too many years until silver is rarer than gold and it will still be getting
consumed.

tradedollarnut

I've been hearing that for 20 years now ... and it's barely increased over the inflation rate.

ABC123

Too Much to Dream---Proco Harum

cladking

<< <i>I've been hearing that for 20 years now ... and it's barely increased over the inflation rate. >>



...And every day for twenty years it has become scarcer relative to gold. If the price
went up many fold today it would continue to become scarcer compared to gold.

WoodenJefferson

If NASA keeps sending gold plated ~thing-a-ma-bobs~ into deep space, silver will surpass gold.

Pentimento

<< <i>Too Much to Dream---Proco Harum >>



ABC123-- Why do you always say this in reply to posts? What the hell is Proco Harum? What does 'Too much to dream' have to do with 'Proco Harum?'

Are you referencing the song 'I had too much to dream (last night)' by the Electric Prunes? Are you referencing the band Procol Harum? If so, Procol Harum had a song called "Too much between us," is this what you mean?

lathmach

Some estimates are that there is 900,000 TONS of silver above ground.
It's not a precious metal, and it's not scarce.
Get real.

Ray

dcarr

<< <i>Some estimates are that there is 900,000 TONS of silver above ground.
It's not a precious metal, and it's not scarce.
Get real.

Ray >>



Paper dollars are not scarce. But everybody still wants them.

StrikeOutXXX

<< <i>

<< <i>Too Much to Dream---Proco Harum >>


ABC123-- Why do you always say this in reply to posts? What the hell is Proco Harum? >>



LOL - I'm just happy he didn't fricking quote Sam Walton or Meg Whitman again - 2700 posts and about 2000 of them say the same 2 lines


How much silver is actually expended. I saw the silver into space post, but for the most part, you make something silver, and 100 years later if you don't like it, you melt it and make something new. How many operations actually expend silver?

kranky

What I don't understand in the linked article is this:

The author says he believes there are billions of ounces of silver out there in non-bullion equivalent form. But he then ignores that when calculating the amount of silver available, which he reports to be 1 billion ounces. He uses the 1 billion number again when calculating that the amount of silver owned per capita is only $2 on a worldwide basis. Clearly, if billions of ounces are out there in a non-bullion equivalent form, those can't be ignored when calculating a per-capita figure of silver ownership.

cladking

<< <i>Some estimates are that there is 900,000 TONS of silver above ground.
It's not a precious metal, and it's not scarce.
Get real.

Ray >>



This would be about three quarters of every ounce ever mined.

Silver is destroyed in large quantities because it is used in small amounts in many applications
where it is impractical to recover it. All the tons of silverware that was in use in the early part
of the century rests in landfills with the silver plate eroded away. Even coins get 3 or 4% worn
away and then are melted and recoined. They used to sell silver foil (sterling) in the grocery
back in the '60's. How much of this survives?

The billion ounce figure he quotes is probably a little low but is the sum total of the known stock-
piles. The other two billion ounces he references is probably fairly accurate but this is metal that
won't appear on the market until the price rises considerably. Nor will it all appear at once but a
little at a time as the price escalates.

The silver deficit is small enough relative supply that there is no significant danger of consuming
the available silver. The danger is that eventually investors and speculators will wake up to the
fact that silver stockpiles continue to dwindle and a small amount of money will control them. It
will prove difficult to find sellers because there is only $14 resistance all the way to about $60/ oz.

There are dozens of companies worth more than all the silver in the world. There are little back-
water countries worth more than all the silver. Since silver is the poor man's gold if all the poor
people in the world decided to sink there cash in silver there would be only a quarter ounce or so
for each.

19Lyds

Without reading the entire attachment, I would like to say that I remember reading that at one time platinum was cheaper than silver and was known as "poor man's silver".

Editied to add: I cannot find nor do I remember where I read this and maybe I am wrong. But at the same time I also recall reading that platinum could be mixed with gold to increase volume without affecting the color of the gold. Unlike silver which changed the color of the gold thereby making its purity (or impurity) visibly evident.

Coxe

Tell the Hunt Bros.

291fifth

Silver is not scarce. The amount of it held by the general public in various forms (such as silverware, jewelry or even coin hoards) is huge. If the price goes up this "hidden" silver supply will emerge just as it did back in 1979-80.

Pentimento

<< <i>The amount of it held by the general public in various forms (such as silverware, jewelry or even coin hoards) is huge. If the price goes up this "hidden" silver supply will emerge just as it did back in 1979-80. >>



I disagree with you on this point. I just don't think that average households took in much silver between 1980-2006 at all. Not when compared to the 25 years before the melts that you reference (especially since this period includes 63/64, when everyone in my family was apparently roll searching and hoarding silver.)

But here is my question-- What is the price that will bring out these hidden sellers?

(edited for math)

291fifth

Much of the "hidden" silver supply has been held in families for many, many years. The 1979-80 boom brought out a very small percentage of the supply. Just think of how many bags of .900 fine silver coins there are out there. The amount is huge.

What price will bring the silver out? Hard to say, but it will have to be much higher than today's level.

ricko

There will be NO shortage of silver even unto our great- great grandchildren's time. Market manipulations (vis a vis Hunt Bros.), perhaps, but no shortage - there a plentiful supplies. Cheers, RickO

coynclecter

Silver has not been scarce in our lifetimes because of two factors.

First off, the billions or ounces that were dug out of Nevada in the 19th century (Comstock)were purchased by the US gov't and stored until 1962 when they began to dump the 3 billion oz stockpile. Since then the price has been depressed due to this dishoarding. In the mean it has been unprofitable to mine more at 5 bucks or so an ounce so there have been few new mines opening. This stockpile is gone and even the Gov't starting buying for the coin program around 2004 (about the same time as the price rise started).

In addition, the silver users association in coordination with COMEX has managed to convince buyers that a "contract" is a good as the real thing. There are owners out there of 5 +billions of ounces that only exist on paper. They like it that way because of no storage costs. If they ever wanted delivery they wouldn't be enough to deliver even 5%. If you want a million ounces just call your broker. They have it available for sale right now.....in paper form.

Right now the usage outpaces the demand. New mines take 8-10 years to start producing. When the scramble for real silver instead of paper starts it will be furious. My only worry is when the Feds decide that silver has become a "critical material" for the security of the Homeland. Then they will want to take it in exchange for "vouchers" ala 1933.

When you buy, take delivery and don't leave a paper trail.

morgannut2

And the reson is simple--silver is almost entirely a biproduct, of gold and or copper mining.
Gold and copper mining activity is a function of the rate if inflation impacted by petroleum prices, and the
world econonmic demand for the basic metals verses these costs. An example today is the insatable need for copper by Chinese conctruction,
verses oil demand/cost..

konsole

Assuming there is still plenty of silver left in the earth to mine, then eventually if silver becomes commonly realized as being scarce above ground, sending the price way up for a short period of time. At that time wouldnt mining then just go crazy just to make profit on that price which then would cause the price to go way back down due to large amounts that were mined?

coynclecter

<< <i>Assuming there is still plenty of silver left in the earth to mine >>






Incorrect assumption. A very high end silver producing mine will produce silver like this

ECU Silver Mining, Inc.: Discovery on Level 18 of New Massive Sulfide Vein of 7.74 Meters '25.4 feet' Yielding 18.57 g/t Gold, 41 g/t Silver, 0.89% Pb and 1.99% Zn;
October 10, 2006 Technical Report on the Velardeña Property
September 22, 2006 ECU's New Discovery at San Mateo - 84 Meters of 5.02 g/t Gold & 526 g/t Silver
September 12, 2006 Recent Gold and Silver Discovery Reaches 70 Meters (230 Feet) in Length; In-Filling Sampling Confirms Grades
September 06, 2006 ECU Silver Mining drills 0.47 m of 17.31 g/t Au, 426 g/t Ag


There are few places on earth left that can produce this kind of ore. All the surface ones that could be "open pit" mined are depleted. If you figure those averages at 300g/t, thats about 10 oz of silver (120 bucks) from a ton (2000lbs) of ore that had to be mined a half mile down, transported, crushed and heated. There are no "Comstock lodes" left sitting below the surface.

Remember 99% of all the gold mined is still being held somewhere. remelted time and again. Most of all the silver mined has already been consumed never to be recovered

roadrunner

I've been hearing that for 20 years now ... and it's barely increased over the inflation rate.

Famous last words when it comes to long term market cycles.
The longer it has been kept down, the longer it's gonna eventually run and go up. The previous highs from the 1980's for gold and silver will be exceeded. It's just the nature of inflation and cycles.
And it's precisely the track record of 20 years that has made everyone distrust the PM's. Their rise will catch everyone off guard.


roadrunner

tradedollarnut

The previous high for silver was artificially induced. If it's exceeded again, I'll personally buy you a beer at the next show we attend together.

Don't hold your breath waiting for it!

roadrunner

TDN, every market high since the 1960's has been artificially induced if you think about it (stocks, bonds, art, coins, housing, etc.). Especially so with the FED at work and a fiat currency. Why single out silver? The silver price may have run up even without the Hunts just to keep pace with gold. Was gold manipulated? As far as I know no one was hoarding it. It went to $875 to balance out the excessiveness in the paper currency markets, plus it hadn't been allowed to seek a true value for decades. Was the stock market rise from 1000 to 12000 over the past 20 years anything but artificially induced by the FED and company? And there is still an accounting correction overdue on that 12X increase as well. And if the Central Banks were indeed selling thousands of tons of gold in this period to keep gold at bay wouldn't that also be articially induced? Normally gold follows the increase in currency and liquidity creation (similarly for silver). So why not in the 1983-2000 period?
Liquidity increased by at least a factor of 4X.

Silver is going to follow gold and eventually try to re-establish the 16:1 or better relationship. It's only a matter of time. And when the right players sense a move, they will tip the charts even more in the favor of silver. No different than what the stock market traders do day in and day out. As we speak the coin market is being artificially induced, and will continue to do so until it goes kerplunk.

I already owe CoinLt a pizza and giving him a beer to wash it down would be a nice gesture. Thanks.

roadrunner

tradedollarnut

I agree with you that gold will exceed its high ... but not silver ..... not for a very long time.

I wonder what that beer will cost when it finally does.

roadrunner

What the FED's did to the Hunt Brothers was far more artificial than anything the Hunts were doing. They in fact beat the comex and the govt at its own game...legally. If such a thing were to occur today I don't think the powers to be would have it as easy to knock someone down. As many of these Billion dollar hedge funds fizzle out overnight, eventually Joe Public will get the idea to shift to PM's.

If gold does head to numbers like $1000+ you can bet that beer that silver will be with it or ahead of it.

roadruner

Deadhorse

<< <i>Their rise will catch everyone off guard.

roadrunner >>



Not everyone.

There are new uses for silver coming on line everyday. In refined .999 form there is 8 times the gold on the planet than there is silver.

When gold is used, it gets melted and re-used. When silver is used, it really is used and it's gone, non recoverable.

Yes, 1980 was artificial and it didn't last long thanks to the Feds violating the law in order to save their wealthy contributors' hides.

Otherwise, it might be called "Hunt Street" these days

Still, the day of reckoning is coming and it's not as far away as some here would like to believe and it has nothing at all to do with artificial highs back in 1980.

I've picked up 11 100 ounce bars in just the last couple weeks alone and feel quite good about it.

The naysayers on this forum have been continually wrong about silver as long as I've posted here as well as prior to that when I just lurked for a year or so.

roadrunner

Welcome deadhorse. Interesting that even with all the negative PM talk, silver lurks right at the $12 level, only 2-3 dollars from the previous high.

roadrunner

Nic

I would think the demand for silver from industry has fallen fast. Not true? Silver of late is a by product of other mining. Love gold, like silver, have ?'s about palladium and platinum. The rarer yet metals are for someone other than myself.

K

cladking

Don't lose sight of the fact that the Hunts bought a mere 160 million ounces of siler.

Nearly eight times that amount has been destroyed in the years since this hoard was
dispersed. There is 8 times as much silver than the Hunts owned less silver in the world
than in 1981. Mining has fallen 1.25 billion ounces short of demand since 1981. It's not
a simple matter of ratcheting up production simply because silver tends to be an insignif-
icant by-product of other mining. They take out tons of copper and a few ounces of silver.

Also there has been attrition on the other types of silver since 1979/ '80. Every house
fire destroys a little silver. Every garbage truck at the dump contains a little silver. The
piles of debris from New Orleans contained silver. There have been a lot of house fires,
a lot of trucks at the dump, and more than a few natural disasters in the last generation.

Deadhorse

<< <i>Welcome deadhorse. Interesting that even with all the negative PM talk, silver lurks right at the $12 level, only 2-3 dollars from the previous high.

roadrunner >>



Hi, RR

I'm still around, don't post as much but I do monitor the forum when I can.

Silver is just fine and it's been very, very good to me over the years, as you know.

Next year will bring modern highs, probably sooner than later. Highs that aren't artificial.

You know it and I know it, but everyone's entitled to an opinion, no matter how shortsighted it may be.

cladking

<< <i>I would think the demand for silver from industry has fallen fast. Not true? Silver of late is a by product of other mining. Love gold, like silver, have ?'s about palladium and platinum. The rarer yet metals are for someone other than myself.

K >>



Most silver demand is nearly impervious to price. There is only a tiny amount of silver
in most applications and a many fold increase in price would have little effect on the
cost of the product.

Demand for silver should maintain a shallow geometric increase for many years no mat-
ter what the price does.

MrKelso

Nic

Cladking,
Not what I meant. The big demand for silver in the past was never based on price. Xrays, photography, etc. A lot of this has went away and not been replaced. What are the current major uses of silver? Are they growing? There is a lot of silver above ground. Not being negative in any way ... just comparing this to other metal hedges.

K

Pentimento

Take a look at MrKelso's picture. Will Dell be using silver-zinc laptop batteries by mid-2007? That's the most cited example of future industrial uses.

fishcooker

Egads. The Ted Butler BS hurts the case for silver more than helps.

Deadhorse

<< <i>Cladking,
Not what I meant. The big demand for silver in the past was never based on price. Xrays, photography, etc. A lot of this has went away and not been replaced. What are the current major uses of silver? Are they growing? There is a lot of silver above ground. Not being negative in any way ... just comparing this to other metal hedges.

K >>



Medicines and high tech are going to begin gobbbling up silver at rates nobody yet expects.

Consider the bacteria killing properties. Now imagine all ductwork and air filters, for human breathing, not cars, as being a requirement in public buildings as a followup to all hospitals doing it first. People will soon follow in their homes. It's why we have "silver"ware.

More highend tech aplications are about to come on line as well. Photography hasn't really fallen off much yet as third world countries are just now getting into traditional photography.

The uses are growing exponentially, the supply dwindling.

Deadhorse

<< <i>Take a look at MrKelso's picture. Will Dell be using silver-zinc laptop batteries by mid-2007? That's the most cited example of future industrial uses. >>



Only because it's been patented and the name Dell is attached.

coynclecter

In addition to the new zijnc-silver battery, how many circuit boards are manufactured out there requiring solder??

According to the European Union Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive (WEEE) and Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive (RoHS), lead had to be eliminated from electronic systems by July 1, 2006, leading to much interest in lead-free solders. These contain tin, copper, silver, and sometimes bismuth, indium, zinc, antimony, and other metals in varying amounts. The lead-free replacements for conventional Sn60/Pb40 solder have higher melting points, requiring re-engineering of most components and materials used in electronic assemblies. Lead-free solder joints may produce mechanically weaker joints depending on service and manufacture conditions, which may lead to a decrease in reliability using such solders. "Tin Whiskers" are another problem with many lead-free solders, where slender crystals of tin slowly grow out of the solder joint. These whiskers can bridge a short circuit years after a device's manufacture.

SnAgCu solders are used by two thirds of Japanese manufacturers for reflow and wave soldering, and by about ¾ companies for hand soldering.
SnAg3.0Cu0.5, tin with 3% silver and 0.5% copper, has a melting point of 217-220 °C and is predominantly used in Japan. It is the JEITA recommended alloy for wave and reflow soldering, with alternatives SnCu for wave and SnAg and SnZnBi for reflow soldering.
SnAg3.5Cu0.7 is another commonly used alloy, with melting point of 217-218 °C.
SnAg3.5Cu0.9, with melting point of 217 °C, is determined by NIST to be truly eutectic.
SnAg3.8Cu0.7, with melting point 217-218 °C, is preferred by the European IDEALS consortium for reflow soldering.
SnAg3.8Cu0.7Sb0.25 is preferred by the European IDEALS consortium for wave soldering.
SnAg3.9Cu0.6, with melting point 217-223 °C, is recommended by the US NEMI consortium for reflow soldering.
SnCu0.7, with melting point of 227 °C, is a cheap alternative for wave soldering, recommended by the US NEMI consortium.
SnZn9, with melting point of 199 °C, is a cheaper alloy but is prone to corrosion and oxidation.
SnZn8Bi3, with melting point of 191-198 °C, is also prone to corrosion and oxidation due to its zinc content.
SnSb5, tin with 5% of antimony, is the US plumbing industry standard. Its melting point is 232-240 °C. It displays good resistance to thermal fatigue and good shear strength.
SnAg2.5Cu0.8Sb0.5 melts at 217-225 °C and is patented by AIM alliance.
SnIn8.0Ag3.5Bi0.5 melts at 197-208 °C and is patented by Matsushi*a/Panasonic.
SnBi57Ag1 melts at 137-139 °C and is patented by Motorola.
SnBi58 melts at 138 °C.
SnIn52 melts at 118 °C and is suitable for the cases where low-temperature soldering is needed.
Different elements serve different roles in the solder alloy:

Silver provides mechanical strength, but has worse ductility than lead. In absence of lead, it improves resistance to fatigue from thermal cycles.
Copper lowers the melting point, improves resistance to thermal cycle fatigue, and improves wetting properties of the molten solder. It also slows down the rate of dissolution of copper from the board and part leads in the liquid solder.
Bismuth significantly lowers the melting point and improves wettability. In presence of lead and tin, bismuth forms crystals of Sn16Pb32Bi52 with melting point of only 95 °C, which diffuses along the grain boundaries and may cause a joint failure at relatively low temperatures. A lead-contaminated high-power part can therefore desolder under load when soldered with a bismuth-containing solder.
Indium lowers the melting point and improves ductility. In presence of lead it forms a ternary compound that undergoes phase change at 114 °C.
Zinc lowers the melting point and is low-cost. However it is highly susceptible to corrosion and oxidation in air, therefore zinc-containing alloys are unsuitable for eg. wave soldering, and zinc-containing solder pastes have shorter shelf life than zinc-free ones.
Antimony is added to increase strength without affecting wettability.

tradedollarnut

roadrunner: let's make it a little more interesting. When silver breaks the old record, I'll buy you a full case of brew of your choice. In the meantime, you buy me two beers of my choice per year that it doesn't [starting with 2007]. Twelve years to beat me on that bet!

LEAP269

since time is on my side, i like my chances with silver rounds, bars, and eagles.

i have been buying it now for some time and have not sold any, even at 15bux and oz.

who on the boards is getting the monster box for us to share?

BlindedByEgo

<< <i>

<< <i>Too Much to Dream---Proco Harum >>



ABC123-- Why do you always say this in reply to posts? What the hell is Proco Harum? What does 'Too much to dream' have to do with 'Proco Harum?'

Are you referencing the song 'I had too much to dream (last night)' by the Electric Prunes? Are you referencing the band Procol Harum? If so, Procol Harum had a song called "Too much between us," is this what you mean? >>



ABC123 is an idiot with a high post count from posting crap. His contribution to this board is only slightly greater than miy own (although at least my crap is written in complete sentences)

Edited to add that I think that silver is so cheap that I have not sold any for 15+ years; I just continue to accumulate it. A pound here and a kilo there - pretty soon it looks like real money

Myqqy

LOL - I'm just happy he didn't fricking quote Sam Walton or Meg Whitman again - 2700 posts and about 2000 of them say the same 2 lines