How will mint and proof sets fare in a "correction"?

Heywood

What will prices do in the next few years for these (will the end of the state quarters change prices either way?)

I will break them down into 4 groups-

Older- 1950-1958

Common- 1959-1998, ( + anything currently close to issue price)

Recent rareties- 99, 01 silver, 2004 MS,

Variations- No S sets, Small date, Type 2.

I think the commons can't get much lower, but don't have much upside.

the older ( esp through 55 in OGP) should hold even in a down turn, because peole will just hold them longer.

Recent rareties could cool a bit,

Variations will hold, with fewer transactions.

If you had 99-05 silvers would you sell or hold?

If you sold your 99-05 silvers and decided you want them , would you buy back now or wait?

cladking

I don't think the older sets or the ultra-moderns would be affected greatly. The older ones would escape
much affect because they are tougher and the newer ones because they have a very broad base of de-
mand.

The modern sets would be impacted because these are the first thing most dealers sell off when they need
to raise money. The demand on these is thinner and supply is more dependent on what dealers are doing
because there is little depth to supply. Any lower prices would not be great largely because they're already
pretty cheap and they will be among the first things to recover.

Bear

I think PLOP. Sometimes the posted price doesnt change much

but in a significant downturn, dealers wont buy anything that they

dont think they can turn quickly.

SilverEagles92

The 2004 MS set is a rarity? I didn't know that... Cool.

cladking

<< <i>I think PLOP. Sometimes the posted price doesnt change much

but in a significant downturn, dealers wont buy anything that they

dont think they can turn quickly. >>



There's never been a problem in the past in bear or bull markets selling any of the modern mint or proof sets at bid. It seems highly improbable that this would change now that the demand for them has broadened a lot.

segoja

Look at past history. These sets have not moved up with the current market for the most part, so why would they move down.

I think demand is pretty steady for all of them.

Outside of only 10-15 sets, all of them are well under $100...affordable by virtually anyone.

With all the modern coins the mint is putting out, this shold generate some interest in the older like type coins.

Just one guys opinion.

Bear

Just don't be suprised when you hear dealers

politely decline such sets ,saying" I already have several

of those in stock."

cladking

<< <i>Just don't be suprised when you hear dealers

politely decline such sets ,saying" I already have several

of those in stock." >>



When there's a fundamental change in these markets we'll have to remember
to ttt this thread. I simply can't envision your scenario unless it's far in the future
and these sets are at far higher prices and have strong set premiums. There are
a lot fewer of these sets than there were in 1990 when prices weakened and there
were lots of buyers at bid then. Bid came down to reflect what they paid but demand
didn't dry up like not being able to sell them would imply.

There probably won't be a chance to see either way since soon enough the sets will
sell based on the quality of each coin in the set.

rooksmith

Dealers will tell you its going to be a Bear market for coins if you are a seller, and its a Bull Market if youre a buyer.

Heywood

2004 aren't a rarety, but they have experienced a big bump over issue- bid is somewhere around $63

Maybe reaety was a poor choice- how about high premium, or larger than normal demand

jdimmick

Thats absolutely not true, I had a decent size selection of proof sets in original boxes Mostly from 64-90's including a few of the later 90's Blue sets. (no Silver sets) and sold 1 set over the last two shows I set up at. By the way they were priced at CDN bid to the public with no intrest. I had to discount them to 15% back bid before any of the other dealer(s) would even consider them for thier inventory.

jim

jjrrww

I agree with Bear, because I've had that happen more times than I can count. I like Ikes, and I like to look through mint sets for better grade coins. It is rare for me to go into a coin shop, or to visit a flea market coin dealer, etc, and NOT find a fair sized box full of mint sets from the 1973-1978 era. Rarely will they offer to buy any that are offered to them for sale, unless they are dirt cheap. The overall quality of those sets is so poor, it is tough to find ONE coin of ANY denomnation in a set that is exceptionaly nice, much less the whole set. They are basically junk.

Even the 1970, 1973, and 1987 sets are pretty much dead. All of the shops around here have PLENTY of them, and the quality of the 70's and 73's is awful. You have coins in there that you can't get any way else, and yet they just sit. Last week, while I was out of state, I visited one shop owner in a small city. He told me he hadn't sold a 1973 mint set in probably four years. He showed me his stock of about 100 sets from 1973-1978, and he let me look through them. I bought one as a courtesy, and it's mediocre. I doubt that either Ike would bring a 64, and none of the other coins reaches out to me either, but it was the best one out of the whole lot.

Now, by doing this, I will naturally end up with extra sets....I have some now. I'm going to have to wholesale them to one of the "full page ad" dealers in order to move them. One way to turn them over might be to offer them to the public as holiday gifts, for birth years, etc. But, I don't mind buying a few from accomodating dealers, because I know full well they have a business to run. If you are courteous enough to let me go through your sets, you will make a sale to me. It may not be a large sale, but you'll sell me something

I think, for the most part, they are junk....and with a few exceptions, they will stay junk.

keets

in NE Ohio the dealers typically buy/sell Proof and Mint Sets at 7-10% back of bid/ask among themselves and anyone who's a regular customer, i can't recall the last time i paid full fare for a set as listed in the GreySheet. i doubt there would be more than a few percentage points swing, most sets are priced less than $30 as it is. the only ones that might see an noticeable drop are the pre-1960 Proof/Mint Sets and the expensive specialty stuff like Premier and Prestige Sets from the 1990's.

Jcarney

<< <i>Just don't be suprised when you hear dealers

politely decline such sets ,saying" I already have several

of those in stock." >>



That's what Ebay is for.

cladking

<< <i>I agree with Bear, because I've had that happen more times than I can count. I like Ikes, and I like to look through mint sets for better grade coins. It is rare for me to go into a coin shop, or to visit a flea market coin dealer, etc, and NOT find a fair sized box full of mint sets from the 1973-1978 era. Rarely will they offer to buy any that are offered to them for sale, unless they are dirt cheap. The overall quality of those sets is so poor, it is tough to find ONE coin of ANY denomnation in a set that is exceptionaly nice, much less the whole set. They are basically junk.

Even the 1970, 1973, and 1987 sets are pretty much dead. All of the shops around here have PLENTY of them, and the quality of the 70's and 73's is awful. You have coins in there that you can't get any way else, and yet they just sit. Last week, while I was out of state, I visited one shop owner in a small city. He told me he hadn't sold a 1973 mint set in probably four years. He showed me his stock of about 100 sets from 1973-1978, and he let me look through them. I bought one as a courtesy, and it's mediocre. I doubt that either Ike would bring a 64, and none of the other coins reaches out to me either, but it was the best one out of the whole lot.
...
I think, for the most part, they are junk....and with a few exceptions, they will stay junk. >>



There's no question that the sets are junk but this is the way they were made and in
many cases there is no other source for the coins. You can look through these sets
for a good long time and never find a nice '77-D cent or '76 T I dollar. A nice '73 quar-
ter can be tough but if you can't find it in the mint set you can't call the mint and ask
for a bag or two to check or find suck a roll in the market.

If you can't find it in the mint set then you aren't going to find it at all.

I was looking at the rolls back then but didn't bother to save any of them and saved only
precious few of the coins that were in them. They were awful. However bad the mint set
coins are the coins made for commerce were far worse. They not only had as much mark-
ing but they were also badly struck and usually from worn dies.

It's true that the typical '73- '78 mint set won't have a single truly choice coin in it (maybe
a dime), but the Greysheet keeps pretty close tabs on the price and have never shown a
reluctance to raise it in the past if demand ratcheted up or to lower it when the demand de-
creased.

It's also true though that the vast majority of the high grade coins from that era are coming
from the mint sets and this is more true still if focusing only on those coins which simply can't
be found in rolls. If someone has never looked at these sets they seem to believe nearly ev-
ery coin is an MS-70. Those who have given them a fair look seem to think that every coin is
a dog. The truth lies somewhere in between. Some of these coins are excessively scarce in
these sets as a nice gem like the aforementioned dollar will require that you look at over 1,000
original sets to find a gem and some are really not that tough at all like the '78 dime will come
as a nice gem more than 2% of the time.

The proof set market has always had a little depth to it. These may be more common but there
are buyers. It's hardly unusual for someone to walk into a coin shop and buy a proof set at retail.
This means that the market for proof sets has more buyers and sellers and is more stable with
less regional variation. No proof set ever got down to less than about 150% of face value and
this is because of this depth. This is far less true for the mint set market. Few of these have ever
been sold retail in coin shops until the last five years. There was simply no interest by the general
public in buying "pocket change". Anyone who sought a 1965 quarter would get it from his change
jar and there weren't many looking even here or you'd see these sets walking into the coin shops
when their estates were sold. You simply don't see such sets but when you do they are much more
likely to be circulated. This will be changing in the future since these sets are starting to get some
substantial sales.

It has always been the nature of mint sets to build up in each individual dealers' inventory until he
needed the money or they became too cumbersome and then he'd ship them off to Arizona or to
the other big buyers. So long as these buyers aren't swamped in sets then the price stays the
same. When they are swamped then the price declines. It's a very thin market because there are
very few buyers. It stays in fairly good equilibrium most of the time but during big corrections in the
overall market there has in the past been a tendency for large numbers of dealers to liquidate these
non-performing stocks and this caused a decrease in the prices. It should be noted that this tendency
should be less pronounced in the future simply because these sets do retail now days and most deal-
ers will want to retain at least one set of each date for stock.

It should also be noted that you can simply toss out the mintages when you gauge the size of this
market. A large percentage of sets are destroyed when they get on the market. There is a long cycle
in this process of at least four or five years but those sets that aren't sold at retail or at ask are de-
stroyed. Since these markets were so tiny in the past it meant that most of these were destroyed.
The sets reside with the original purchasers and then there are very few available otherwise. Since
the original purchasers are getting few in number it's a safe bet that the availability of many of the
older sets is greatly reduced.

The chances of the prices coming down in an overall correction are not poor. But unless the Greysheet
changes their policy you'll always be able to sell these at bid. And yes, I'm fully aware that there are
fewer buyers at bid right now than at some times in the past but there are extraneous reasons for this
as well.

Those who hate these sets would do well to remember that every year fewer come available on the
market and every year the demand goes up a little more. Since the number on the market is very low
and accounts for nearly the entire available supply there will always be a far higher risk of a buying
panic than a price collapse (except for the next couple months. )

It's not difficult to picture the day that 20,000,000 collectors suddenly decide they want one of each
of the clads that have been made and they want a nice choice example. It will no doubt happen when
virtually the entire supply is one or two of each date set in dealers' stock. There will be 10,000 of these
crappy sets to satisfy a demand of 20,000,000. It would be the biggest buying panic of all time.

ABC123

So Many Crystal Balls, So Little Time !

Bear

Get three crystal balls

and you can open a pawn shop.

ziggy29

Look out below for the most ridiculously overvalued items, such as the 1999 silver proof set.

BillJones

Having been a collector through three or four corrections, I can tell you that the prices for most of the stuff you have listed will drop. And if the prices in the prices guides don't indicate that, the actions of dealers will. They will only buy the material at a discount, or they will refuse to buy it at all.

topstuf

<< <i>Just don't be suprised when you hear dealers

politely decline such sets ,saying" I already have several

of those in stock." >>



Be VERY surprised if you ever hear that. Any dealer with a lick of sense will simply buy them but pay less as they will have to be shipped. But any time you hear a dealer say anything REMOTELY like the above, figure him as really stupid.

291fifth

Demand for the sets from the early 1950's is likely to decline in the near future. Many of these sets are bought as birthday/wedding presents and the people to whom these early dates are important are getting old. This is a pattern seen in other types of dated collectibles. An example is the Christmas plates that have been issued since the early 1900's.

So far as how the sets will fare in a decline (I hate the stock broker term "correction") I am less certain. These sets haven't been driven up much by the current market boom because they are, essentially, common generic junk.
If you have ever been in a dealer's shop when an elderly couple brings in boxloads of this material for sale you will know what I mean. As long as the dealer knows he can unload the sets he will pay a percentage of bid that isn't too far below grey sheet. If he knows he will have trouble unloading the sets he will drop his price regardless of what the sheet says.

BigE2

You'll be able to spend those common ones.

cladking

<< <i>Having been a collector through three or four corrections, I can tell you that the prices for most of the stuff you have listed will drop. And if the prices in the prices guides don't indicate that, the actions of dealers will. They will only buy the material at a discount, or they will refuse to buy it at all. >>



Again, I've never seen this for mint and proof sets and have been watching these
markets since 1972 (almost since they started). The price may well come down but
they are always saleable at bid. This is probably because the Greysheet tracks these
pretty close.

It is true that individual dealers might lower their offers relative to bid but the wholesale
(as listed by the Greysheet) price has always matched actual bid/ ask markets.

cladking

<< <i>You'll be able to spend those common ones. >>



This may be true and has happened in the past but I don't believe it will happen again.
There is simply much more interest in the sets and a much broader base of demand than
ever before. Right now even those these markets are a little suppressed you'll see bids
are all well higher than face value. Even the lowly 1979 set which has little going for it
because of high mintage, scarcity of desirable coins, and containing no key dates is selling
at a staggering $6 bid for a $3.82 face value. This would imply that collectors are looking
at these sets and seeking gems however tough they might be. The '80 set is also bidding
at $6 for $4.82 face which might be even more surprising. There are a lot more gems in this
date too.

When the price gets under face then dealers start cutting up massive numbers of them.
There are so few coming on the market now days that the deficit would become apparent
pretty quickly. These are being retailed now days and there is still substantial demand for
the denomination sets so it would be at least a little surprising to see drops of this nature.
losses would probably be in the higher priced sets but some of these are immune. The '86
set for instance is down to $12 but the coins in it sell for around $15. How much lower can
it drop. The '70 set is a candidate but there is a lot of demand for nice attractive half dol-
lars from this set. Perhaps this is where the divergence in price for the set and quality pieces
will start. It's extremely easy to sell this set if it has a nice half. This date is getting heavily
picked over. The '73 may be subject to promotion so a drop here is improbable. This just
doesn't leave a lot of dates. The SMS's might be susceptible even though they have been in
demand for the first time ever. The other '85 to '94 sets could get set back a little but the
mintages on these are not very high and there aren't all that many walking into the shops.
The post '94 sets may be most suscepible but here there is simply huge demand. Large broad
based drops seem improbable.

You might see some easing in prices but the simple fact is that the dynamics of these markets
has changed dramatically since they were decimated by the 1990 correction. Most dealers don't
have the massive supplies they did in those days. Not only are there far fewer sets for them to
buy but their attention was distracted by the huge amounts of money they were making in other
coins. They didn't care if their mint set stocks grew to the ceiling so long as they didn't fall over or
they didn't get underfoot. Generally these stocks are not as large now days. They have been sel-
ling a few over the counter and fewer have been coming in. Even if they do have too many, they
wouldn't send them all in.

The modern markets have been growing very steadily from day one. They are small and the growth
is low but it has been steady. But these markets are still directly tied to the overall market and when
it sneezes the moderns can get a cold. But this should be kept in perspective. Even if all 10,000 sets
of each date get shipped to the wholesalers tomorrow there is going to be no huge influx of high grade
moderns come on the market. This is partially because gems are none too common in these sets and to
a lesser extent some of these sets have already been checked for varieties and gems.

It's not impossible that the moderns can weather even a major storm in the other markets, though I'm
not expecting they will.

The weather man is often wrong and can't even predict current conditions. Let's hope that's what
we're dealing with here.

DHeath

My 2 cents worth, I've been buying the common stuff 10% back of bid all the way through the bull market, so I expect it'll be weak in a down market as well, but most of it is so cheap it won't drop much, it'll just be slower selling.

Older- 1950-1958 - OK, but soft unless there is strong color.

Common- 1959-1998, ( + anything currently close to issue price) - unchanged price, less sellable.

Recent rareties- 99, 01 silver, 2004 MS, - will rise and fall with mint created SQ demand.

Variations- No S sets, Small date, Type 2. - core collector stuff, and will remain strong as a boutique market.

JMO