assuming that the market slows down

Wisconsin

How long does it take before grey sheet levels start showing minus signs?? Which areas or series do you think will be the first to go down??

Nic

They did not show true plus signs on the way up. It will be a while before it, if ever, occurs. K

cladking

It will be much slower if the market's on the way down than it was on the way up.

roadrunner

Well said Nic. Other than on bust halves and some scattered pieces, the CDN has lagged the market for quite a while. It would make no sense if they started going down on truly scarce coins.

The CDN seems to "show" market movement by adjusting one or two coins in the PF/MS type area per issue. I find this almost laughable. Of the entire type coins arena of say 400-500 different issues, only a few go up or down each week.

Back in the boom days of 1989, you would find 10-20% of the issues plussed each week. I don't think I've seen more than 10 plusses
in any issue for the past 5 years...never mind 10%!

roadrunner

michael

Which areas do you think will be the first to go down??


common hyped modern plastic

michael

oh my.........................................................................

Bruceswar

<< <i>Which areas do you think will be the first to go down??


common hyped modern plastic >>



I am not a modern basher, but I agree with you.

cladking

RYK

My WAG is that high grade modern coins will not lead the market down. They seem to have a strong following that continues to defy my expectations.

I predict that the coins that will go down in price/value the most will be the ones that have risen the most in value:

Draped bust dollars
Proof gold
Premium-priced common date Morgans
Better date 20th century gold
$3 gold

are several areas that come to mind. There are a lot of areas that did not materially participate in the rising coin market of the last several years, and while the prices in these areas may soften and the demand slacken, I doubt that there will be deep discounting. As for my collecting niche (primarily No Motto southern gold), I am not sure what will happen. For at least a year, there as been a dearth of quality material available, particularly in the collector sweet spot VF-35 to AU-53 range. These coins tend to be held long term by enthusiastic supporters, and I doubt that, barring an individual financial calamity or two, lower prices are going to drive fresh material out from hiding. I personally have no plans of selling my holdings and will continue to add these coins to my collection when appropriate pieces come available.

kieferscoins

<< <i>They did not show true plus signs on the way up. It will be a while before it, if ever, occurs. K >>



There are minus signs on the greysheet that were passed out by CDN to all the dealers at Long Beach.

Cameron Kiefer

orie

RYK you hit the nail on the head.

originalisbest

I wouldn't mind if an early Bust dollar type came down from the stratosphere - might actually be able to afford one someday.

As for a 1901-S quarter, in a true market slowdown, I'd like to see how well a pricetag of $5000 in G holds up. It is a scarce and desirable piece, but one in G ain't worth 5 g's to me.

michael

I AM NOT A MODERN BASHER EITHER

BUT I DID NOT SAY MODERN COINS

please reread my post and \

PLEASE DO NOT TAKE IT OUT OF CONTEXT

i said common hyped modern PLASTIC

I LIKE MODERNS IN COLLECTIONS

i do not like really expensive plastic around modern coins

cladking

<< <i>I AM NOT A MODERN BASHER EITHER

BUT I DID NOT SAY MODERN COINS

please reread my post and \

PLEASE DO NOT TAKE IT OUT OF CONTEXT

i said common hyped modern PLASTIC

I LIKE MODERNS IN COLLECTIONS

i do not like really expensive plastic around modern coins >>




I don't agree with anything in this post but you certainly have the right to believe and
state it. I misread your earlier post and I was out of line when I slammed you which is
why the post was deleted hours ago, long before your post was made. You apparently
saw it and you deserve an apology in any case. Please consider this it.

Your last statement above is modern bashing. Unless you can show someone who purchased
a piece of plastic then you are supposing that people don't care about the coin. You are assum-
ing no one in his right mind would pay more than you would for the coin. You believe that if the
coin wasn't in the plastic that it would sell differently than a classic coin that wasn't in the plastic.
These assumptions and beliefs have been shown (and in a few cases proven) not to be true yet
you continue to put it forth even in threads where it is entirely inappropriate and off subject.


To get back onto subject, I don't believe there will be much adjustment unless the market
continues to fall from these levels. The coins affected usually will be those where the most
speculation has occurred. I wouldn't expect to see much change in nice collector coins and
most circulated 20th century issues. Now would I expect to see much change in any of the
areas where newbies are buying. This primarily applies to ultra-moderns but their interests
are continuing to expand.