The 1938-D Half Dollar...why is it so overvalued?

291fifth

The 1938-D half dollar isn't rare or even scarce, yet it carries very high valuations in the pricing guides ($125 in G4 in the Numismatic News Coin Market, as example.) What are the dynamics behind the inflated price of this issue?

AceK

Umm . . . how about third lowest mintage in the series at 491,600?

291fifth

<< <i>Umm . . . how about third lowest mintage in the series at 491,600? >>



But with a VERY high survival rate.

AceK

<< <i>But with a VERY high survival rate. >>


Are you basing that on the population reports? If so, I would theorize that those reports are skewed, because people are more likely to submit high value coins for grading, especially in the lower grades. There are also more 1921 and 1921-Ds graded than you might expect based solely on mintage.

Of course, this is just a theory and possibly a highly flawed one.

construct

Because it's the toughest date in a short set, and there are more short set collectors than long set collectors.

AU58WALKERS

<< <i>

<< <i>Umm . . . how about third lowest mintage in the series at 491,600? >>



But with a VERY high survival rate. >>



VERY high survival means nothing....look at the 1916 standing liberty quarter.

You can buy a half dozen or so bu's anytime you want to "pony up" the silly ask price.

jdimmick

Extremely over priced at current levels IMO, but demand from short set builders as well as few inexpereinced folks who view rarity based on mintage figures keeps demand up. The local places I stop in, always sell 38-d halves, and most of these get bought by flea market and & local coin show vendors.

jim

originalisbest

It's just gone up a lot since I snagged a VF for $40. Promotions and the like, I guess.

BillJones

If the coin is overvalued, it's been overvalued for a very long time. Back when I lived in New Jersey, which is now coming up on 30 years ago, I sold one in VG for about $20.

ARCO

The coin is not scarce or difficult to find by any stretch. However, as a lower mintage date, and in company with other dates exponentially more available....and a huge collector base. You get a date that is going to command a premium over its true scarcity. I wouldn't be surprised if in this market, the date isn't hoarded substantially.

Tyler

291fifth

<< <i>

<< <i>But with a VERY high survival rate. >>


Are you basing that on the population reports? If so, I would theorize that those reports are skewed, because people are more likely to submit high value coins for grading, especially in the lower grades. There are also more 1921 and 1921-Ds graded than you might expect based solely on mintage.

Of course, this is just a theory and possibly a highly flawed one. >>



I'm sure that most of these are uncertified. Pop. reports won't be of much use for the circulated grades.

supertooth

The 38D is readily available in grades up to a VF. You can buy them on Ebay by the dozens. But go try and find a nice XF45--Au coin---uncleaned and not dipped or messed with. You will soon see how difficult it really is to find a truly nice coin. Personally, I looked for 7 years on Ebay to find a high MS coin that hadn't been dipped. I recently found two coins from the same seller and bought both coins. So, the coin is not rare---but the quality that is out there is certainly suspect most of the time. Bob [supertooth]

InYHWHWeTrust

<< <i>The 1938-D half dollar isn't rare or even scarce, yet it carries very high valuations in the pricing guides ($125 in G4 in the Numismatic News Coin Market, as example.) What are the dynamics behind the inflated price of this issue? >>



? guessing the same psychology as that which underlies the 1909 s VDB, for example?

Don

au58

The reason for its price is as follows:
During the coin collecting heydays (late 50s, early 60s), Volume 2 of the Walker set could be completed out of circulation. EXCEPT for the 38-D. This put lots of pressure on the price.
Even though there is less demand for it today, history prevails.

carl

I think it's because so many of my freinds were born that year. I've seen lots of them at coin shows and never noticed an unusual high price. Now I've got to go looking.
It may be treads like this one that raise the price of some coins. With a possible 20,000 viewers or more they may all be running out and buying what ever some one says is rare.

21Walker

About a year ago, I figured the 38D was a sleeper. I bought 5 or 6 VF's in the $50-$60 range. I also bought a superb XF for my primary collection for $78. Judging from the price swings on this coin, I do believe it is not a sleeper anymore.............Rick

majorbigtime

An earlier version of the '50 D nickel phonem!

21Walker

ttt.............want to see other folks opinions.........Rick

seateddime

demand

21Walker

ttt.................for 291fift..............Rick

BlindedByEgo

<< <i>demand >>



Pretty much sums it up.

lkenefic

1932-D and 32-S quarters have similar mintages yet they're fetching substantially more than the 38-D Walker...twice as much for the '32-D in XF [according to FMV]...so what gives???

Leo

rec78

Even though there is less demand for it today, history prevails.
If there is less demand there would not be a higher price.
The main difference between the collecting mentality of today vs 30-35 years ago--Today buy it if you want it -price does not matter- just get it. 30-35 years ago everyone just waited for the right coin at a good price. Greysheet bid became retail-If you did not sell at or below greysheet bid you did not sell very many coins. That is certainly not true today.
The 1938-D walker half is not the only example of an overpriced coin-The market is still hot on most key and semi-key issues-what happens when it cools off a little bit? Four years ago you could have gotton a nice VF1916 SL quarter for about $2000 now this same coin is $8-10,000. These are around and are way overpriced at this level. However coins are a "whatever the market will bear" type market. As long as people are willing to pay too much (at least in my opinion)for certain coins they will stay in this arena or may go even higher..

lasvegasteddy

blah-blah-blah i say...it's in a low mintage semi or key status...how many true over priced coins are there and how many posts could be on specific coins....all i know is they look nice in my books and undervalued in my eyes

fivecents

The 1938-D walker is undervalued in the MS grades of MS60 - MS64. Especially when compared to the lower circulated prices.

mnmcoin

<< <i>1932-D and 32-S quarters have similar mintages yet they're fetching substantially more than the 38-D Walker...twice as much for the '32-D in XF [according to FMV]...so what gives???

Leo >>



You are forgetting the demand side of the economics model.

morris <><

lkenefic

<< <i>

<< <i>1932-D and 32-S quarters have similar mintages yet they're fetching substantially more than the 38-D Walker...twice as much for the '32-D in XF [according to FMV]...so what gives???

Leo >>



You are forgetting the demand side of the economics model.

morris <>< >>



...so there's THAT much more demand for Washington Quarters than Walking Lib Halves?? wow...I'd have thought the reverse would have been true.

L

BillJones

<< <i>An earlier version of the '50 D nickel phonem! >>



No, the situation is nowhere near as bad as the '50-D nickel phenom was. In that case a couple of dealers were able to corner the market and actually control it well enough for enough years to make some (then) serious money.

This coin might be overrated, but it is a lower mintage date from the popular and affordable end of a popular series. And, unlike the '50-D nickel, Mint State examples don't grown on trees although they can be found with a little effort. The coin was issued at the end of The Great Depression, and most of them did end up in circulation.

BillJones

<< <i>1932-D and 32-S quarters have similar mintages yet they're fetching substantially more than the 38-D Walker...twice as much for the '32-D in XF [according to FMV]...so what gives???

Leo >>



#1. Those two coins were issued during the depths of The Great Depression. Not many people could afford to set a quarter aside, when putting food on the table and keeping a roof over your head was a challenge. The 1938-D half was issued at the end of the Great Depression when it was more likely that people could collect and save them.

#2. Some Mint State examples of the '32 quarters were set aside, but once the coin got some wear on it, few were saved. They got used HARD. As a result high grade circulated coins in collector grades like EF are scarce.

#3. Because of the State Quarter program, the Washington quarter has become a popular collectors' item. This might not continue once the program ends in a few years.

lkenefic

Thanks Bill...I knew someone would have plausible reasons for this phenomenon. Leo