<< <i>But the state of the modern hobby still concerns me, which is why I spend so much time writing these long winded posts about it. >>
I would never question your devotion or passion.
But the card companies - at this point - may be between a rock and a hard place about the whole state of affairs.
The whole thing about opening a box and equating it directly and solely by the dollar value may be the problem.
Keep in mind - I don't want this discussion to be personal - not with you or anyone Boo.
When we have to write things down - things can get misunderstood.
I like you guys.
This TOO is part of the hobby - I agree.
mike >>
No, you're totally right here. The card companies are in a JAM, and there's no easy way out. Ever since the roaring '80's we've had this 'speculator mentality' hanging over the hobby, and the overriding problem with this-- and it's something that's completely beyond the card companies' control-- is that modern cards lose money over time. People don't want to admit this to themselves, but for every Pujols there are a thousand Josh Hamiltons, and when that Hamilton refractor goes from $300 to $5 SOMEONE is going to be left holding the bag. If the cards actually trended upwards this wouldn't be any kind of problem at all, since all of our Brien Taylor RC's would be worth thousands today. But they're not. And because of this speculator mentality the prices of modern boxes is driven, at least in part, by this completely irrational yet persistent idea that the proper market price for a card should be based not on what a player has done so far, but on what they might do if everything breaks right for them. Thus, part of the reason people lose their shirts when buying boxes is because those boxes carry RC's of unproven players, and the sell price of the box reflects the ridiculous prices that those RC's carry on the secondary market.
Take 2006 Bowman. Now the price of that box is driven partially by the possibility of the 'big hit', but it's also driven by this crazy idea that $150 is a fair price to pay for an autographed card of a player that hasn't yet made it out of AA ball. And THIS aspect of the hobby is something that is also corrosive and detrimental, and it's completely beyond Topps or UD's sphere of influence. But the one thing Topps and UD can do to make the hobby better, IMO, is to quit charging these crazy prices-- and by crazy I mean $100 plus-- for boxes that yield virtually nothing.
I've totally mixed up who said what and have probably mixed this up with another thread entirely.
I apologize to Boo and Lee.
mike >>
No, Mike, you have nothing to apologize for. Everything you've said is spot on, IMO. I agree that the hobby would be a better place if everyone quit worrying about book value when they break a box. But unfortunately that's not going to happen, and the card companies need to recognize that and change their products to better suit the demands of the hobbyists who want decent $ value from their boxes.
By the very nature of the business, I think greed played a part over the past 15 yrs.
They went crazy when they saw the hobby grow - let the presses run over-time and treated us like all-day- suckers!
I agree - now they're paying for it.
But in fairness to them - how much do they pay for autos? Of the stars?
That's key to the "real" value that we are talking about.
mike >>
YES! We WERE played for suckers, and that's one of the worst feelings a man can have. No wonder so many guys have been turned off from cards. And I don't have any easy answers. I think I've presented some good ideas in this thread, but I know that even if they were implemented the wouldn't solve the whole problem.
I wish some coin guys, like Steve (WinPitcher), would sound off in this thread. How does the coin hobby remain vibrant and satisfying for it's participants? What's different between the coin and card markets? I think we could probably learn a lot from coin and comic collectors if they participated in these boards more often.
Many boxes that have been set with a suggested retail by Topps, e.g., fly out the window when the stores get them.
The minute they see the product is hot - they increase the box price - this is out of the company's hands.
mike >>
I have no doubt that the irrational and irresponsible behavior of many modern card hobbyists and dealers is responsible for a large part of the problem. This thread started off as a critique of the card companies, so I've tried to restrict myself to grousing about their behavior, but if we ever get off on talking about dealers and modern 'collectors' I've got a whole arsenal of complaints to levy against them as well.
By the very nature of the business, I think greed played a part over the past 15 yrs.
They went crazy when they saw the hobby grow - let the presses run over-time and treated us like all-day- suckers!
I agree - now they're paying for it.
But in fairness to them - how much do they pay for autos? Of the stars?
That's key to the "real" value that we are talking about.
mike >>
I think one big step would be to check past Ebay prices for auto prices of various players, and resolve not to pay players any more for their autos then what they're worth on the secondary market. Of course, different card brands will get different prices for the same auto, and the print run is a variable as well, but all of that can be accounted for. If, for example, it's discovered that David Eckstein wants $20 for each sticker he signs, and we see that the only Eckstein autos that sell for more than $20 are either those that come from Ultimate Collection or Triple Threads cards that are limited to a print run of 50, then Topps and UD should only buy enough Eckstein autos to seed the UC and T.Threads packs, and make sure the print runs on the cards that feature his auto are limited to 50 or less.
Any other scheme will do something we DON'T want to see happen, and that's putting extra hobby dollars in the pockets of MLB players. If he wants $20 an auto, and his autos only sell for $8 in Fleer Ultra, then everyone who buys a box of Ultra is 'paying' a percentage of $12 for each David Eckstein auto to David Eckstein. What's the point of that? Let's keep the hobby dollars in the hobby! Some will be siphoned off to Topps and UD, which is unavoidable, but let's not lose anymore than we have to!
Many boxes that have been set with a suggested retail by Topps, e.g., fly out the window when the stores get them.
The minute they see the product is hot - they increase the box price - this is out of the company's hands.
mike >>
I have no doubt that the irrational and irresponsible behavior of many modern card hobbyists and dealers is responsible for a large part of the problem. This thread started off as a critique of the card companies, so I've tried to restrict myself to grousing about their behavior, but if we ever get off on talking about dealers and modern 'collectors' I've got a whole arsenal of complaints to levy against them as well. >>
Interesting point.
On the card companies - it's hard to say how this exactly evolved and who gets blame?
But to start:
1. card company produces cards. 2. people buy them and Beckett reflected higher prices for the cards. 3. card company gets wind of the higher prices and says: 4. "charge more next year" and oh! BTW - let the presses run! 5. people realize there's more Maddux RCs than they thought and he isn't having as good a year as he did before along with Glavine - so card prices drop - set values drop 6. people start to get disillusioned and not happy with the 1992UD/T/D/L sets 7. card companies say...hmmm...what if we add an auto card insert and stuff?
and it goes on and on and on...
Now every kid in America is armed with a Beckett.
And then, also, enter the Grading companies!
And ebay....
And it gets more complicated by the nanosecond! This is not designed to be totally accurate - more like a quick skit on the events of the last 15+ yrs?
<< <i>I think one big step would be to check past Ebay prices for auto prices of various players, and resolve not to pay players any more for their autos then what they're worth on the secondary market. >>
OK...
So if Topps wholesales a box of baseball base brand for - let's say - 36$. How much do you think they can afford to pay - per box - for autos?
I have no idea what it costs to print a box in it's entirety? Then one has to factor in ML players association fees and ML baseball fees - I would guess - then there's marketing - and all the other costs of running a corporation that goes into that box that was produced.
Comments
I had dinner and I swear - only 3 Buds.
I've totally mixed up who said what and have probably mixed this up with another thread entirely.
I apologize to Boo and Lee.
mike
<< <i>
<< <i>But the state of the modern hobby still concerns me, which is why I spend so much time writing these long winded posts about it. >>
I would never question your devotion or passion.
But the card companies - at this point - may be between a rock and a hard place about the whole state of affairs.
The whole thing about opening a box and equating it directly and solely by the dollar value may be the problem.
Keep in mind - I don't want this discussion to be personal - not with you or anyone Boo.
When we have to write things down - things can get misunderstood.
I like you guys.
This TOO is part of the hobby - I agree.
mike >>
No, you're totally right here. The card companies are in a JAM, and there's no easy way out. Ever since the roaring '80's we've had this 'speculator mentality' hanging over the hobby, and the overriding problem with this-- and it's something that's completely beyond the card companies' control-- is that modern cards lose money over time. People don't want to admit this to themselves, but for every Pujols there are a thousand Josh Hamiltons, and when that Hamilton refractor goes from $300 to $5 SOMEONE is going to be left holding the bag. If the cards actually trended upwards this wouldn't be any kind of problem at all, since all of our Brien Taylor RC's would be worth thousands today. But they're not. And because of this speculator mentality the prices of modern boxes is driven, at least in part, by this completely irrational yet persistent idea that the proper market price for a card should be based not on what a player has done so far, but on what they might do if everything breaks right for them. Thus, part of the reason people lose their shirts when buying boxes is because those boxes carry RC's of unproven players, and the sell price of the box reflects the ridiculous prices that those RC's carry on the secondary market.
Take 2006 Bowman. Now the price of that box is driven partially by the possibility of the 'big hit', but it's also driven by this crazy idea that $150 is a fair price to pay for an autographed card of a player that hasn't yet made it out of AA ball. And THIS aspect of the hobby is something that is also corrosive and detrimental, and it's completely beyond Topps or UD's sphere of influence. But the one thing Topps and UD can do to make the hobby better, IMO, is to quit charging these crazy prices-- and by crazy I mean $100 plus-- for boxes that yield virtually nothing.
By the very nature of the business, I think greed played a part over the past 15 yrs.
They went crazy when they saw the hobby grow - let the presses run over-time and treated us like
all-day- suckers!
I agree - now they're paying for it.
But in fairness to them - how much do they pay for autos? Of the stars?
That's key to the "real" value that we are talking about.
mike
<< <i>Now for the late nite debate.
I had dinner and I swear - only 3 Buds.
I've totally mixed up who said what and have probably mixed this up with another thread entirely.
I apologize to Boo and Lee.
mike >>
No, Mike, you have nothing to apologize for. Everything you've said is spot on, IMO. I agree that the hobby would be a better place if everyone quit worrying about book value when they break a box. But unfortunately that's not going to happen, and the card companies need to recognize that and change their products to better suit the demands of the hobbyists who want decent $ value from their boxes.
Many boxes that have been set with a suggested retail by Topps, e.g., fly out the window when the stores get them.
The minute they see the product is hot - they increase the box price - this is out of the company's hands.
mike
<< <i>On the companies...
By the very nature of the business, I think greed played a part over the past 15 yrs.
They went crazy when they saw the hobby grow - let the presses run over-time and treated us like
all-day- suckers!
I agree - now they're paying for it.
But in fairness to them - how much do they pay for autos? Of the stars?
That's key to the "real" value that we are talking about.
mike >>
YES! We WERE played for suckers, and that's one of the worst feelings a man can have. No wonder so many guys have been turned off from cards. And I don't have any easy answers. I think I've presented some good ideas in this thread, but I know that even if they were implemented the wouldn't solve the whole problem.
I wish some coin guys, like Steve (WinPitcher), would sound off in this thread. How does the coin hobby remain vibrant and satisfying for it's participants? What's different between the coin and card markets? I think we could probably learn a lot from coin and comic collectors if they participated in these boards more often.
<< <i>Another point on pricing.
Many boxes that have been set with a suggested retail by Topps, e.g., fly out the window when the stores get them.
The minute they see the product is hot - they increase the box price - this is out of the company's hands.
mike >>
I have no doubt that the irrational and irresponsible behavior of many modern card hobbyists and dealers is responsible for a large part of the problem. This thread started off as a critique of the card companies, so I've tried to restrict myself to grousing about their behavior, but if we ever get off on talking about dealers and modern 'collectors' I've got a whole arsenal of complaints to levy against them as well.
<< <i>On the companies...
By the very nature of the business, I think greed played a part over the past 15 yrs.
They went crazy when they saw the hobby grow - let the presses run over-time and treated us like
all-day- suckers!
I agree - now they're paying for it.
But in fairness to them - how much do they pay for autos? Of the stars?
That's key to the "real" value that we are talking about.
mike >>
I think one big step would be to check past Ebay prices for auto prices of various players, and resolve not to pay players any more for their autos then what they're worth on the secondary market. Of course, different card brands will get different prices for the same auto, and the print run is a variable as well, but all of that can be accounted for. If, for example, it's discovered that David Eckstein wants $20 for each sticker he signs, and we see that the only Eckstein autos that sell for more than $20 are either those that come from Ultimate Collection or Triple Threads cards that are limited to a print run of 50, then Topps and UD should only buy enough Eckstein autos to seed the UC and T.Threads packs, and make sure the print runs on the cards that feature his auto are limited to 50 or less.
Any other scheme will do something we DON'T want to see happen, and that's putting extra hobby dollars in the pockets of MLB players. If he wants $20 an auto, and his autos only sell for $8 in Fleer Ultra, then everyone who buys a box of Ultra is 'paying' a percentage of $12 for each David Eckstein auto to David Eckstein. What's the point of that? Let's keep the hobby dollars in the hobby! Some will be siphoned off to Topps and UD, which is unavoidable, but let's not lose anymore than we have to!
<< <i>
<< <i>Another point on pricing.
Many boxes that have been set with a suggested retail by Topps, e.g., fly out the window when the stores get them.
The minute they see the product is hot - they increase the box price - this is out of the company's hands.
mike >>
I have no doubt that the irrational and irresponsible behavior of many modern card hobbyists and dealers is responsible for a large part of the problem. This thread started off as a critique of the card companies, so I've tried to restrict myself to grousing about their behavior, but if we ever get off on talking about dealers and modern 'collectors' I've got a whole arsenal of complaints to levy against them as well. >>
Interesting point.
On the card companies - it's hard to say how this exactly evolved and who gets blame?
But to start:
1. card company produces cards.
2. people buy them and Beckett reflected higher prices for the cards.
3. card company gets wind of the higher prices and says:
4. "charge more next year" and oh! BTW - let the presses run!
5. people realize there's more Maddux RCs than they thought and he isn't having as good a year as he did before along with Glavine - so card prices drop - set values drop
6. people start to get disillusioned and not happy with the 1992UD/T/D/L sets
7. card companies say...hmmm...what if we add an auto card insert and stuff?
and it goes on and on and on...
Now every kid in America is armed with a Beckett.
And then, also, enter the Grading companies!
And ebay....
And it gets more complicated by the nanosecond! This is not designed to be totally accurate - more like a quick skit on the events of the last 15+ yrs?
<< <i>I think one big step would be to check past Ebay prices for auto prices of various players, and resolve not to pay players any more for their autos then what they're worth on the secondary market. >>
OK...
So if Topps wholesales a box of baseball base brand for - let's say - 36$. How much do you think they can afford to pay - per box - for autos?
I have no idea what it costs to print a box in it's entirety? Then one has to factor in ML players association fees and ML baseball fees - I would guess - then there's marketing - and all the other costs of running a corporation that goes into that box that was produced.
mike