This is why I don't buy new cards..
CDsNuts
Posts: 10,092 ✭
Every year I make at least 3 impulse buys on new cards. It might be because I have a gambling problem, but I'm not sure. Today I'm in a cardshop to buy some supplies and the 2006 '52 Style Basketball caught my eye, so I bought a box for $75. Not knowing anything about the cards, I happily opened my box. Got a few refractors, a few chrome, a few autos, and a few jerseys- all commons except a Gervin auto. Last pack has a Chris Paul Chrome which got me pretty pumped up. Surely a RC of the hottest rookie numbered to 499 has to be going for at least $50, right? So I get home and search it on ebay and the last one sold for under $20. What's the freakin point? Unless you pull a 1/1 auto of somebody good, you have absolutely no chance of making your money back. And what the hell are Shannon Elizabeth and Carmen Electra doing in the set? I don't recall the '52 Topps set having Faye Rae or Ava Gardner in the set.
Lee
Lee
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Comments
I can't remember the last wax product that offered a decent bang for the buck. This is one reason that I firmly believe that kids should not be allowed to buy wax.
Rich
<< <i>Every year I make at least 3 impulse buys on new cards. It might be because I have a gambling problem, but I'm not sure. Today I'm in a cardshop to buy some supplies and the 2006 '52 Style Basketball caught my eye, so I bought a box for $75. Not knowing anything about the cards, I happily opened my box. Got a few refractors, a few chrome, a few autos, and a few jerseys- all commons except a Gervin auto. Last pack has a Chris Paul Chrome which got me pretty pumped up. Surely a RC of the hottest rookie numbered to 499 has to be going for at least $50, right? So I get home and search it on ebay and the last one sold for under $20. What's the freakin point? Unless you pull a 1/1 auto of somebody good, you have absolutely no chance of making your money back. And what the hell are Shannon Elizabeth and Carmen Electra doing in the set? I don't recall the '52 Topps set having Faye Rae or Ava Gardner in the set.
Lee >>
Ya know, if Ava Gardner WAS included in the 1952 Topps Set, my Dad might have bought more cards back then. Then he would given them all to me! Screw you Topps for being 54 years too late! BTW, if they really wanted to insult our collective intelligence, they should have included Paris Hilton in this year's set. Eating a drippy cheeseburger on a boss-looking hot rod.....OOOH, Hot Flash, gotta go.......
i make an impulse buy here or there and i feel the same way. it's like having sex with a cheap whore....or eating a big slab of fudge...or drinking that whisky you're not supposed to because of your liver condition....sounds great at the moment, and you get an extreme high during the moment, but after the moment...once you're done....guilt, reflection, introspection causes you to feel like filth. i busted open a 2004 upperdeck something or another box a year ago...got a bunch of insert stars...all are worth less than a used toilet paper from a truck stop portable restroom.
i guess some of it is also just the act of opening packs. i collect predominantly vintage cards....so, pack busting is not in my vernacular...but,every now and then, i get this itch to just open up a pack of cards. Ideally, it would be a 1952 topps pack....since, that doesnt exist, i decide to bust open some modern.
<< <i>i think someone on this board, boo, greg, or someone who collects modern or has a keen eye of the modern market, stated that the box busts that beckett writes about in their publications are rigged. or at least overexaggerated because beckett's profits are tied to mainly modern cards. you read about how they get these great inserts from these boxes...and you're thinking, how come i dont get those types of cards in my box busts?
i make an impulse buy here or there and i feel the same way. it's like having sex with a cheap whore....or eating a big slab of fudge...or drinking that whisky you're not supposed to because of your liver condition....sounds great at the moment, and you get an extreme high during the moment, but after the moment...once you're done....guilt, reflection, introspection causes you to feel like filth. i busted open a 2004 upperdeck something or another box a year ago...got a bunch of insert stars...all are worth less than a used toilet paper from a truck stop portable restroom. >>
LOL! Great post. Although what I was trying to say when I was talking about Beckett's 'box break' articles is that they get the same crap we get, only they try and trump it up and make every card #'d/1999 sound like the pull of a lifetime. Just about every product released is a complete and utter rip-off, but when was the last time Beckett ever flat out said 'don't buy this stuff, it's overpriced and good pulls are as scarce as hen's teeth'?
Also, don't compare box breaks with eating fudge! I can't speak for the cheap whores, but gorging on chocolate is much more rewarding than breaking new boxes. As for the guilt, you just have to learn how to fight through that
John
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
And yes, I enjoyed opening the box but to put it into perspective, for my $75 I got what I would consider an above average box with a resale value of around $30. In the late 80s during the height of my collecting, I would bust a $20 box and get AT LEAST $20 worth of cards on average (when cards actually sold for what they were in Beckett).
Lee
<< <i>MajorDanby, Did your guilt and introspection result in the cheap whore, the fudge, and the whiskey all intersecting in a truckstop bathroom at the same time in a life changing experience? >>
yes and no. the whore wasnt cheap, the whiskey was. and my liver wasnt acting up...it was my bladder. that's how i ended up in a truckstop bathroom.
and oh yes, the whore brought the fudge, not I.
<< <i>i think someone on this board, boo, greg, or someone who collects modern or has a keen eye of the modern market, stated that the box busts that beckett writes about in their publications are rigged. or at least overexaggerated because beckett's profits are tied to mainly modern cards. you read about how they get these great inserts from these boxes...and you're thinking, how come i dont get those types of cards in my box busts?
i make an impulse buy here or there and i feel the same way. it's like having sex with a cheap whore....or eating a big slab of fudge...or drinking that whisky you're not supposed to because of your liver condition....sounds great at the moment, and you get an extreme high during the moment, but after the moment...once you're done....guilt, reflection, introspection causes you to feel like filth. i busted open a 2004 upperdeck something or another box a year ago...got a bunch of insert stars...all are worth less than a used toilet paper from a truck stop portable restroom. >>
I nominate this for post of the day. Great post that sums it up perfectly!
Forget blocking him; find out where he lives and go punch him in the nuts. --WalterSobchak 9/12/12
Looking for Al Hrabosky and any OPC Dave Campbells (the ESPN guy)
And, also, you shoulda known before you bought the box!
John
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
<< <i>Yea, but aren't you happy it's not still 1988?? In the collecting sense?
And, also, you shoulda known before you bought the box!
John >>
This is a very good point, and one that often gets lost in discussion of modern cards. The current state of things has a definite downside, but if you really think about it there isn't much the card companies could do to make it any better.
In all seriousness, I did enjoy busting the box and this has been one of the more fun new products I've opened in the last five years. I'm just having trouble with the correllation between the cost of boxes in general and the value of the cards inside. Also, why in the didn't they use the 1957 basketball style?
Lee
Congratulations on a really great box!
You pulled some autos to include Gervin! Outstanding.
Have ya got a scan of the Gervin auto card?
Is it a sticker or a direct auto on the card?
thanx for sharing
mike
Lee
<< <i> I'm just having trouble with the correllation between the cost of boxes in general and the value of the cards inside. >>
Lee
I think you would have way more fun if you throw away the price guide and just enjoy the cards.
I can say this without any reservation - I have collected Heritage every year since it started and have absolutely no idea what the sets are worth to include the subsets and parallel sets.
Modern is best enjoyed served cold on the plate without a side-order of price-guide.
mike
<< <i>
I think you would have way more fun if you throw away the price guide and just enjoy the cards.
mike >>
More pearls of wisdom from the wise sage....and besides in the EBAY era "book value" don't mean jackshot. Enjoy the cards.
For example, to compare this purchase with, say, 5 packs of 1978 Topps baseball from a case-fresh box (via Steve Hart). Obviously, best case scenario I pull one of the big cards in Gem Mint. Since that's somewhat unrealistic (similar to pulling a Lebron auto or some 1/1), I can realistically expect to pull a handful of PSA 9's and maybe a PSA 10 (this is based on my experience with opening his boxes). If I get lucky and any of the Mint cards are a star, then I'm looking great. If they're just commons, I could still do OK if one is a low or semi low pop. If I pull a NM or NM/MT Murray, Molitor/Trammell, Ryan, Morris, Whitaker, Brett, Schmidt, etc... Those all have value according to the marketplace. Basically what I'm saying is that an above average yield from those packs would probably get me close to $75 worth of cards, while an above average yield on my 52 Style box was a lot lower.
Obviously, looking at a box break strictly in terms of monetary value is a very cold way to look at something that's fun, exciting, and relaxing. However, money and value has to be taken into account because that's what you're giving up in return for the box. Afterall, the card companies come up with a price for the boxes, and my guess is that it would be what they feel collectors will pay, rather than what they incurred in terms of productions costs, or the actual value of the cards inside the packs. They are fleecing us with these new products, and probably have been since the late 90s.
Lee
<< <i>Mike- I guess that's a good way to look at it from a mental health standpoint, but a little "dreamland-ish," at least for me. The $75 I spent on the box could by me a nice dinner with my girlfriend, a good bottle of booze, or a nice pair of shoes. If I can't compare what I'm getting for my money in terms of what I could get for the same money, then I would have no sense of what a dollar's worth. While the "experience" of opening a box of cards is worth a lot to me, the "experience" directly correllates to what I can realistically (and sometimes unreallistically) get out of a box.
For example, to compare this purchase with, say, 5 packs of 1978 Topps baseball from a case-fresh box (via Steve Hart). Obviously, best case scenario I pull one of the big cards in Gem Mint. Since that's somewhat unrealistic (similar to pulling a Lebron auto or some 1/1), I can realistically expect to pull a handful of PSA 9's and maybe a PSA 10 (this is based on my experience with opening his boxes). If I get lucky and any of the Mint cards are a star, then I'm looking great. If they're just commons, I could still do OK if one is a low or semi low pop. If I pull a NM or NM/MT Murray, Molitor/Trammell, Ryan, Morris, Whitaker, Brett, Schmidt, etc... Those all have value according to the marketplace. Basically what I'm saying is that an above average yield from those packs would probably get me close to $75 worth of cards, while an above average yield on my 52 Style box was a lot lower.
Obviously, looking at a box break strictly in terms of monetary value is a very cold way to look at something that's fun, exciting, and relaxing. However, money and value has to be taken into account because that's what you're giving up in return for the box. Afterall, the card companies come up with a price for the boxes, and my guess is that it would be what they feel collectors will pay, rather than what they incurred in terms of productions costs, or the actual value of the cards inside the packs. They are fleecing us with these new products, and probably have been since the late 90s.
Lee >>
There's another dynamic at work here too, and that's the simple (and altogether too familiar) feeling of having been made for a sucker. Case in point: The last modern box I ripped was a box of 2000 Topps Gold Label baseball. I was at a local shop looking for something to buy, and the guy behind the counter told me he had these boxes marked down from $120 to $105. Now I had no idea what big pulls were possible in that box, but I figured what the hell-- for $105 there's bound to be something decent in there, and maybe it will be some kind of Griffey card (who was getting all kinds of hobby love at the time).
So I plunk down the money and take the box home. But it's only when I finally get the box back to my desk and start doing some homeword that I discover there's NOTHING in that box that could possibly be worth a damn. And I mean nothing. Oh, there may have been some kind of exotic auto seeded 1: 15000 packs or something, but realistically I had no chance of pulling anything but base cards and maybe a $10 insert card. WTF? I'm paying $105 for this box, and I could just jump into Ebay and buy the contents of 99.5% of these boxes for $15. And as I sat there, sorting out my feelings about this entire transaction, I realized that I wasn't really all that mad about being ripped off, since that's a feeling you're bound to get acclimated to if you screw around with this hobby long enough, but I was furious over the fact that Topps had played me for a mark. They KNEW that a certain % of potential customers would end up in a card shop somewhere with no idea what they wanted to buy, and they further figured that a certain % of those people would somehow end up buying one of these boxes, and so, while the sales of these boxes may be fairly small, the profit would be enormous. They didn't CARE about giving customers 'value' for this box-- it was designed for the simple purpose of gouging the few unlucky shleps who didn't do their homework before going to the card shop and ended up buying one of these POS's.
That's exactly how I feel about almost everything Upper Deck puts out. Has anyone here seen the 'hit ratio' for the 2006 SP Authentic hockey? It's pitiful. Hell, it's beyond pitiful, it's fricking CRIMINAL. But they know that 'x' number of guys are going to drop down the coin for a box that has a 1 in 1000 chance of pulling a high end Ovechkin or Crosby, and that a given % of these guys won't look at the actual odds of pulling one of those cards, so they don't bother making the box worthwhile for the other 99.9. Ditto for the new Sweet Spot. $100 a box and you get one GU card and one auto? What?? I mean, is that some kind of cruel joke?
I keep hearing that UD and Topps are losing money. But seriously-- how can that be? What sort of horrible business model must you have in place to end up in the red after consistently selling people products that lose 90% of their market value once the cellophane is ripped? The way I see it is that the sports card industry has essentially become a duopoly, with all kinds of barriers to entry for new firms (licensing and so on), and they've basically worked out a system that excludes 30-40% of potential customers (guys like us who would like to rip boxes, but just can't justify losing huge sums of money in the deal) but squeezes the last nickel out of that % of the customer base that's addicted to ripping packs. You may have 1,000,000 who are potential customers, and 400,000 of those guys will bust boxes with little or no regard to the value the boxes provide, and the card companies have essentially given up on the idea of reaching all 1,000,000 by offering a decent value and have chosen instead to just ass-hammer that 400,000 who really don't care how often they lose their shorts. And we wonder why the hobby isn't growing? Well, gee, it wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that 90% OF THE PRODUCTS OUT THERE could only be purchased in good conscious by someone with an incurable pack ripping addiction, could it? These people aren't interested in expanding the hobby; they're just interested in bleeding those guys who, for whatever reason, just can't stop themselves from buying boxes. That's what the hobby has been reduced to-- a niche market for gamblers-- and it's not going to change until Topps or UD get serious about bringing the other 60% into the fold.
Just look at the box break threads at beckett.com, or read the box break letters in the magazine. It's an unreal experience. You'll go the website, see a thread titled '2005 Triple Threads MOJO!!!', and so of course you're thinking 'wow, this guy must have pulled a cut signature card featuring Mantle, Dimaggio and Gehrig', but when you open it you discover he pulled a Berkman/Biggio/Bagwell GU card, or something like that. What??? That's MOJO? Or look at the articles in the mag. Stuff like 'I've been breaking boxes for years, and have never pulled anything good, but today I want to Shady Sams sports cards here in Nosepicker, OK, and bought a box of Bowman Chrome, and in the sixth pack I opened there was a 1/1 Superfractor of J.T. Snow! No doubt this was my best pull ever!' And as you're reading this you can't help but think, 'this guy has been breaking wax since the Clinton years and the best he can do is a 1/1 of a second tier 1st baseman? What the hell did the other boxes look like?' So of course you're now wondering just who in the hell is breaking this stuff if the best you can hope for is a 1/1 of a minor star every seven years or so, and the answer you're left with is that the guys buying these boxes must be psychologically incapable of quitting their box break habit, because no rational person would put themselves through that kind of torture week in and week out.
I hear what Stone is saying, but on the other hand most guys just hate being made for chumps by a sports card comapany, and as Lee said the fact remains that $75 is $75, and that money has utility that could be realized elsewhere. If you go into a casino and you see a 6/5 Jacks or Better machine parked right next to an 8/5 Jacks or Better machine you're just a moron if you play the 6/5 game. And the same thing works for cards; if your 75$ is, on average, going to turn in to $15, then you have to ask yourself if your'e going to have $60 worth of fun breaking that box. What else could you do with that $60? Well, you could buy a 3 box rack case of 1986 Topps, and spend 8 hours screwing around with that, breaking racks and looking for Gem Mint cards. Or you could buy a PSA 9 Topps Chrome Lebron RC, or a mid-pop 1965 baseball common in PSA 9, or a box and a half of 1981 Donruss. It boils down to whether or not that $60 could be better spent elsewhere, and for most of the guys in this hobby-- and certainly most of the guys on these boards-- the answer is an unqualified YES, which is why guys get that dirty feeling after they break one of these modern boxes; they know they could have used that money on something more enjoyable.
Vintage makes up at least 95 % of my collection and at least 95% of my purchases.
That said, I really enjoy ripping new stuff and don't really care what it's worth.
I buy it and rip it because I enjoy opening the packs, putting sets together, and looking at the cards.
Of course it's fun to pull a big card,
but it's no different than hoping to pull an Aaron, Mays, or Mantle when I was a kid.
We were gambling back then every time we bought a pack. We didn't buy them and rip them to pull cards of Joe Nobody.
I know it would be cheaper to just buy the stuff already opened on eBay,
but to me it's worth the difference between what I pay and the value of the cards to have the fun of doing it myself.
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"
<< <i>However, money and value has to be taken into account because that's what you're giving up in return for the box. >>
Boo
"Price is what you pay - value is what you get."
Deliver value that your customers recognize, appreciate and reward. If you want your customers to value what you offer - you must demonstrate that you value them and their money, risk, time, staff, business, and needs.
In no way is this a pejorative but there seems to be a disconnect by many about what the "value" is in sports cards and the "perceived" value.
Yes, cards have "real" value - check ebay or your Beckett - perhaps Topps needs to do a BETTER job of working on the "perceived" value of cards.
The "perception" should be that one values the cards because they represent a great product and the cards are little pieces of art - hopefully with superb photography and graphics - when I look at Mickey Mantle swinging the bat in a card, I get an emotion, a feeling - it evokes a response. I get enjoyment. That's VALUE.
But now comes the hard one - some people wouldn't know real value if it bit them in the ass.
Ebay and flipping should not be in the equation of cost vs. value IMO as a function of viewing this as a Hobby.
mike
I agree with what you said on page 65 of your post. However, as much as it pains me to say this, in all fairness to the card companies, they don't know what will catch on and what won't. The Topps gold label was total crap, but they were trying to capitalize on the trends of thick hi-gloss cards with hi quality photos, lots of parallels, and 1/1's. They completely missed the mark, but partly because they came out at like $8 a pack. They had a shot if they got out at $4, just like every other product would do much better at about 1/2 the price. Their strategies aren't working because they're putting every product out there in the hopes that it's the next big thing, which clearly isn't the case. Only about 2 or 3 new products per decade have a strong following that leads to residual sales in the years following (Heritage, Bowman Chrome, etc..). Heritage was a decent product at a reasonable price, so collectors ate it up. Topps has kept the price at $3 a pack and collectors are still buying.
Now, trying to Piggyback on the Heritage trend, Topps puts out the '52 Style basketball (again, why the hell not '57 basketball Style?) at a whopping SRP of $6!! You can't tell me that the production costs of this set that has the same card stock, photo quality, and packaging is double that of Heritage. At $40 I would have been perfectly happy with my box, but at $75 I feel ripped off, and that's with an above average break.
I don't care if they put out 100 different products for us to choose from every year, just make them affordable enough so we can experiment with stuff to decide whether we like it or not. And make it so we have a fighting chance of getting our money back if we don't pull a 1/1.
Lee
Boo- By the way, Shady Sam overgrades his cards. He's an embarrassment to Nosepicker.
John
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
<< <i>
<< <i>However, money and value has to be taken into account because that's what you're giving up in return for the box. >>
Boo
"Price is what you pay - value is what you get."
Deliver value that your customers recognize, appreciate and reward. If you want your customers to value what you offer - you must demonstrate that you value them and their money, risk, time, staff, business, and needs.
In no way is this a pejorative but there seems to be a disconnect by many about what the "value" is in sports cards and the "perceived" value.
Yes, cards have "real" value - check ebay or your Beckett - perhaps Topps needs to do a BETTER job of working on the "perceived" value of cards.
The "perception" should be that one values the cards because they represent a great product and the cards are little pieces of art - hopefully with superb photography and graphics - when I look at Mickey Mantle swinging the bat in a card, I get an emotion, a feeling - it evokes a response. I get enjoyment. That's VALUE.
But now comes the hard one - some people wouldn't know real value if it bit them in the ass.
Ebay and flipping should not be in the equation of cost vs. value IMO as a function of viewing this as a Hobby.
mike >>
Well, that's a totally normative assessment. You may not think that flipping should be in the equation of cost vs. value, but there's room under the tent for everyone-- or at least I don't see any necessary reason why there can't be. And if we're talking about the card companies in terms of their stewardship of the hobby-- and they do have that role, whether they like it or not-- then selling $100 boxes that deliver $10 worth of cards is, almost by definition, BAD for the hobby by virtually any metric you choose to employ.
If you buy a $20 box you may be happy just ripping the packs and keeping the stars (or building a base set, or whatever). But if you're going to break a $100 box you want cards that are worth money. Maybe you don't see it this way when you but Heritage, but I can absolutely guarantee that you're in the minority, and the hobby cannot stand and thrive in perpetuity on people like you alone. These boxes with triple digit price tags that frequently deliver as much real dollar value as a box of $30 Bazooka are eroding the foundation of this hobby, and this will not change until the card companies start providing more bang for the buck. Why are these boxes corroding the hobby? For the following reasons.
1) Newcomers to the hobby who buy one of these things and get a handful of essentially worthless base cards are less likely to continue their involvement in the hobby.
2) There is a zero sum element to 'hobby dollars', in that every dollar that goes to a box of SPX or whatever could have gone to something else hobby related. If you buy the $100 box, and get $10 worth of cards, that $90 is off to the coffers at UD or Topps-- where a mere 10% of that $90 will be recirculated into the hobby by means of next year's card issues. The other $81 is gone from the hobby for good. Compare this, say, to a guy who buys a 1957 Aaron off someone on Ebay. Assuming the seller is a collector, it's likely that almost 100% of the hammer price will recirculate into the hobby, and if it's a dealer who's the seller some fraction greater than 10% will end up back in the hobby (by virtue of the fact that most dealers are not using 90% of their gross revenues on living expenses).
3) Existing participants in the hobby eventually get disgusted with throwing their money at these terrible boxes and leave the hobby for good.
Again, you may not think is the way is should be, but I doubt you can argue that this isnt the way it 'is'. And as long as it stays this way the hobby will continue to stagnate. Maybe I lack imagination, but I just can't see any other outcome. The fact that there may be an enlightened minority out there who are just tickled pink by the mere act of pack ripping, and who derive their consumer surplus simply by staring wide-eyed at the gorgeous base cards they were fortunate enough to pull, is almost beside the point, since most people don't view it this way. For most modern box busters the enjoyment the get from breaking the box is directly-- and perhaps almost exclusively-- correlated with the resale value of the cards that came out of the box. Given that this is the approach most hobbyists take the card companies need to do more to ensure that these same hobbyists get as much enjoyment out of breaking boxes as possible, and I don't think this is a responsibility that they take very seriously.
<< <i>However, money and value has to be taken into account because that's what you're giving up in return for the box. >>
Boo
"Price is what you pay - value is what you get."
Deliver value that your customers recognize, appreciate and reward. If you want your customers to value what you offer - you must demonstrate that you value them and their money, risk, time, staff, business, and needs.
In no way is this a pejorative but there seems to be a disconnect by many about what the "value" is in sports cards and the "perceived" value.
Yes, cards have "real" value - check ebay or your Beckett - perhaps Topps needs to do a BETTER job of working on the "perceived" value of cards.
The "perception" should be that one values the cards because they represent a great product and the cards are little pieces of art - hopefully with superb photography and graphics - when I look at Mickey Mantle swinging the bat in a card, I get an emotion, a feeling - it evokes a response. I get enjoyment. That's VALUE.
But now comes the hard one - some people wouldn't know real value if it bit them in the ass.
Ebay and flipping should not be in the equation of cost vs. value IMO as a function of viewing this as a Hobby.
mike >>
Well, that's a totally normative assessment. You may not think that flipping should be in the equation of cost vs. value, but there's room under the tent for everyone-- or at least I don't see any necessary reason why there can't be. And if we're talking about the card companies in terms of their stewardship of the hobby-- and they do have that role, whether they like it or not-- then selling $100 boxes that deliver $10 worth of cards is, almost by definition, BAD for the hobby by virtually any metric you choose to employ.
If you buy a $20 box you may be happy just ripping the packs and keeping the stars (or building a base set, or whatever). But if you're going to break a $100 box you want cards that are worth money. Maybe you don't see it this way when you but Heritage, but I can absolutely guarantee that you're in the minority, and the hobby cannot stand and thrive in perpetuity on people like you alone. These boxes with triple digit price tags that frequently deliver as much real dollar value as a box of $30 Bazooka are eroding the foundation of this hobby, and this will not change until the card companies start providing more bang for the buck. Why are these boxes corroding the hobby? For the following reasons.
1) Newcomers to the hobby who buy one of these things and get a handful of essentially worthless base cards are less likely to continue their involvement in the hobby.
2) There is a zero sum element to 'hobby dollars', in that every dollar that goes to a box of SPX or whatever could have gone to something else hobby related. If you buy the $100 box, and get $10 worth of cards, that $90 is off to the coffers at UD or Topps-- where a mere 10% of that $90 will be recirculated into the hobby by means of next year's card issues. The other $81 is gone from the hobby for good. Compare this, say, to a guy who buys a 1957 Aaron off someone on Ebay. Assuming the seller is a collector, it's likely that almost 100% of the hammer price will recirculate into the hobby, and if it's a dealer who's the seller some fraction greater than 10% will end up back in the hobby (by virtue of the fact that most dealers are not using 90% of their gross revenues on living expenses).
3) Existing participants in the hobby eventually get disgusted with throwing their money at these terrible boxes and leave the hobby for good.
Again, you may not think is the way is should be, but I doubt you can argue that this isnt the way it 'is'. And as long as it stays this way the hobby will continue to stagnate. Maybe I lack imagination, but I just can't see any other outcome. The fact that there may be an enlightened minority out there who are just tickled pink by the mere act of pack ripping, and who derive their consumer surplus simply by staring wide-eyed at the gorgeous base cards they were fortunate enough to pull, is almost beside the point, since most people don't view it this way. For most modern box busters the enjoyment the get from breaking the box is directly-- and perhaps almost exclusively-- correlated with the resale value of the cards that came out of the box. Given that this is the approach most hobbyists take the card companies need to do more to ensure that these same hobbyists get as much enjoyment out of breaking boxes as possible, and I don't think this is a responsibility that they take very seriously.
You talk about cards being little pieces of art. Well, what's the aesthetic difference between a $5 Pujols RC and a $1000 Pujols RC? Or a base card of MVP and a base card of Exquisite? The difference, if there is one, is negligible. They're both 2 1/2" by 3 1/2" pieces of cardboard with a picture of a ballplayer on them and some stats on the back. The reason why the MVP and Exquisite boxes feature such a difference in price is not because the Exquisite's are more aesthetically pleasing-- it's because they offer the allure of the 'big hit'. So as long as products are being marketed on the grounds that they can provide this big hit then IMO the people producing these cards should do more to ensure that as many people as possible get that big hit. I'm not looking to shift any hobby paradigms here, I'm just asking that the card companies do more to make hobbyists happy with their products. Because if they don't the hobby base will continue to shrink. And who wants that?
Lee
<< <i>Boo,
I agree with what you said on page 65 of your post. However, as much as it pains me to say this, in all fairness to the card companies, they don't know what will catch on and what won't. The Topps gold label was total crap, but they were trying to capitalize on the trends of thick hi-gloss cards with hi quality photos, lots of parallels, and 1/1's. They completely missed the mark, but partly because they came out at like $8 a pack. They had a shot if they got out at $4, just like every other product would do much better at about 1/2 the price. Their strategies aren't working because they're putting every product out there in the hopes that it's the next big thing, which clearly isn't the case. Only about 2 or 3 new products per decade have a strong following that leads to residual sales in the years following (Heritage, Bowman Chrome, etc..). Heritage was a decent product at a reasonable price, so collectors ate it up. Topps has kept the price at $3 a pack and collectors are still buying.
Now, trying to Piggyback on the Heritage trend, Topps puts out the '52 Style basketball (again, why the hell not '57 basketball Style?) at a whopping SRP of $6!! You can't tell me that the production costs of this set that has the same card stock, photo quality, and packaging is double that of Heritage. At $40 I would have been perfectly happy with my box, but at $75 I feel ripped off, and that's with an above average break.
I don't care if they put out 100 different products for us to choose from every year, just make them affordable enough so we can experiment with stuff to decide whether we like it or not. And make it so we have a fighting chance of getting our money back if we don't pull a 1/1.
Lee
Boo- By the way, Shady Sam overgrades his cards. He's an embarrassment to Nosepicker. >>
No, I totally agree-- the card companies have every right to throw new stuff at the wall and see what will stick. But there is a point at which common sense needs to prevail. One enormous miscalculation the card companies have made is in assuming that consumers would be happier pulling one decent card from every box as opposed to pulling one absolutely mind blowing card every fifteen boxes. I had a discussion on this with BrianWintersFan in another thread, which you may or may not have caught, but in case you didn't all repeat-- not verbatim, but at least in spirit-- what I said there (why not, it's 1 am and I've already done all my Ebay searches).
The current market model involves the 'big card guarantee', whereby every unit (be it a box, or tin, or pack, etc.) has a guaranteed good card. I think this may have started with Private Stock some years back, but I'm not sure. Anyway, I imagine the card companies have decided that if the price of their boxes are going to be roughly equivalent to the price of five lap dances down at Thunder Dan's Boobs and Beer then they need to give the masses some kind of reacharound if they aren't fortunate enough to pull a card featuring a piece of Babe Ruth's femur. However, what they fail to realize is that spending $100 on a box and getting a certified auto card of Henry Blanco is just as demoralizing, if not worse then getting skunked.
As American's we're used to getting skunked. You go to the bar looking for some leg, you get a beer thrown in your face, you go home and grab your piece and enjoy a few lurid Nancy McKeon fantasies until you nod off to sleep. You were skunked, but you dealt with it. Or you go to the casino, take a one timer on Red on the roulette wheel and lose, so you hang out in the bar and nurse a Miller Lite while waiting for your buddies to finish up. Again, you've been skunked. But it's not something you're unequipped to deal with.
Ditto for card boxes. If the card companies said outright that one in every 300,000 packs will contain a gold ticket to Willie Wonka's chocolate factory we'd all be in line paying $25 bucks a box. It wouldn't bother us in the least. If we got skunked we would handle it with dignity, because we're all psychologically prepared to come up empty when we take a flyer on a long shot. But when you guarantee one auto per box, and hike the price of the box up by some astronomical factor, you are going to feel downright insulted when your one 'hit' is a card that's worth only marginally more than the base card next to it. You do not feel like you got your money's worth, even if the box delivered as advertised.
The answer? Get rid of all autos that cost more than their resale value. If some guy wants $10 for each sticker he signs, and his autograph is only worth $3 to collectors, then just shut that guy out. Don't pay the $10 in order to fulfill a seeding guarantee, because the only guy who makes out in this case is the scrub who got $10 for something that's worth $3. Everyone else, from UD on down, loses. If this means fewer autos per box, then lower the price of the box accordingly. To make up for the reduced number of autos you can just make more parallels and inserts, and increase the number of RC's in the checklist.
Remember when pulling GU and auto cards was just the absolute bomb? Back in 2000 there was nothing better than pulling one of these cards, and that's because a) they were rare, and b) the checklists for the auto and GU subsets weren't filled with back up catchers. Once the card companies got away from that model it was all downhill.
Couldn't agree with you more. I blame the 1996 Leaf Signature, which was actually a great product. People got the taste of lots of auto's in their mouths and the companies decided they needed to have every player in the majors under contract to sign cards. Now if you excuse me, I have to go list my Trent Tucker auto for a Buy It Now of .35 .
Lee
Blaire dont put out
i think tootie ended up with teh biggest knockers..
Mindy Cohn pwns , id hit it
<< <i> there may be an enlightened minority >>
Enlightened minority?
If anything, you seem to be the enlightened one.
I'm just a plain simpleton who likes cards - has moved on - accepted things for what they are - buy what I like and don't give a rats ass about resale.
I used to have a pack in one hand the Beckett in the other.
I don't find that fun and if I'm in the tiny minority - what can I say.
But I do know one thing - I'm enjoying myself more now and actually spending less in the pursuit.
No matter how many words you use - it falls back on one thing - the investor talking vs. the collector talking.
mike
Lee
<< <i>Mrs. Garrett wasn't so shabby either for an older lady. Very MILFY.
Lee >>
hell she was a GILF, is she still alive?
to be living up to your dreams.
Suddenly you're finding out
the facts of life are all about you."
They don't write em like that no more.
Lee
<< <i>You may not think that flipping should be in the equation of cost vs. value, but there's room under the tent for everyone-- or at least I don't see any necessary reason why there can't be. >>
Boo
You quoted me OUT OF CONTEXT - I said:
Ebay and flipping should not be in the equation of cost vs. value IMO as a function of viewing this as a Hobby.
Saying there's room under the tent - could have someone infer that I was being exclusionary. I was referring to ebay and flipping with respect to a Hobby.
I don't think it's the responsiblility of Topps to be concerned with whether you make a profit on ebay with respect to "perceived value."
There's plenty of room for all of us. Just insure we're talking apples and apples.
If you want to flip cards as part of the equation - that's not a hobby IMO - that's work - that's business - now some will say they want to help pay for the box with some ebay flipping - fine - if it works - but Topps can't have that as part of their campaign. It's hard enough just putting out a product that has value, as such.
mike
Lee
<< <i>
<< <i>You may not think that flipping should be in the equation of cost vs. value, but there's room under the tent for everyone-- or at least I don't see any necessary reason why there can't be. >>
Boo
You quoted me OUT OF CONTEXT - I said:
Ebay and flipping should not be in the equation of cost vs. value IMO as a function of viewing this as a Hobby.
Saying there's room under the tent - could have someone infer that I was being exclusionary. I was referring to ebay and flipping with respect to a Hobby.
I don't think it's the responsiblility of Topps to be concerned with whether you make a profit on ebay with respect to "perceived value."
There's plenty of room for all of us. Just insure we're talking apples and apples.
If you want to flip cards as part of the equation - that's not a hobby IMO - that's work - that's business - now some will say they want to help pay for the box with some ebay flipping - fine - if it works - but Topps can't have that as part of their campaign. It's hard enough just putting out a product that has value, as such.
mike >>
You seem committed to this idea that enjoying a hobby and turning a buck are somehow co-exclusive, which doesn't make any sense to me. Also, for whatever reason you just don't seem to want to recognize the spirit of my posts on this subject. Did I EVER say that it's Topps job to be concerned with whether or not someone turns a profit on their products on the secondary marke?? Hell, did I even imply that? No. If you read my posts again you'll see that I think Topps and UD should-- and, in fact, have a responsibility to-- do a better job at filling their high end products with cards that people actually want. And the reason I think that is because if this current market model holds the collector base will continue to shrink. If you disagree with me, well, that's fine. I can reespect that. But if you're going to argue with me I only ask that you refute points which I've actually attempted to make.
Look-- I like puzzles. I like trying to 'solve' things. It's the reason I got into poker, it's the reason I still build statistical models to try and beat the sports betting markets, and it's one of the main reasons why I enjoy screwing around with cards. Am I successful? No. Am I 'up' , for my lifetime, in my sportscard transactions? No. But the fun for me lies in the challenge of trying to 'beat' the sports card market, and whether I"m successful or not isn't as important to me as the enjoyment I get from the effort. Questions like 'how often will a random PSA 8 cross to a PSA 9 holder' , or 'how frequently will a 2004 Bowman Chrome card bought raw on Ebay end up a BGS 9.5', or even 'what are the methods that Ebay's myriad card doctors use to get altered cards into legitimate grading companies' slabs' are interesting to me, and I do my best to try and answer them to my own satisfaction. If that sounds like work to you then that's fine. But I do get sick of having people tell me or anyone else that they're enjoying sports cards the 'wrong way', or that I or anyone else would have more fun if we'd adopt someone else's hobby habits.
Lastly, this preceding paragraph has nothing to do with our discussion of unopened boxes. I agree that no sports card company has the responsibility to make sure that their customers actually profit from purchasing their products. If you read my earlier posts I think it will become clear that my objections to the card companies' market model is not in any way related to a hobbyists inability to turn a buck by buying and ripping their products.
<< <i>
<< <i> there may be an enlightened minority >>
Enlightened minority?
If anything, you seem to be the enlightened one.
I'm just a plain simpleton who likes cards - has moved on - accepted things for what they are - buy what I like and don't give a rats ass about resale.
I used to have a pack in one hand the Beckett in the other.
I don't find that fun and if I'm in the tiny minority - what can I say.
But I do know one thing - I'm enjoying myself more now and actually spending less in the pursuit.
No matter how many words you use - it falls back on one thing - the investor talking vs. the collector talking.
mike >>
Other points.
1)No, it doesn't fall back on the investor talking vs. the collector talking, because if I or anyone else was an investor we'd be buying nothing but pre-war stuff. It's the collector talking vs. the 'guy who enjoys buying and selling' talking, which is a different thing entirely.
2)Also, if you find that opening packs and not caring what's inside is fun, and further understand that you're in the tiny minority, then what you can say is 'I'm in the tiny minority', and recognize the fact that whether you or I or anyone else like it the fact is that most people measure the success of a box break by the $ value of the cards they pull, and there's nothing wrong with asking that the card companies do more to keep those people happy.
3)If memory serves (and I may be wrong), you're usually good for one case of Heritage a year. I don't know what a case goes for, but let's say it sells for $500. So, your 'box budget' averages out to about $10 a week per year, and the rest of your hobby dollars are spent on other things, like cards, signed baseballs, and so forth. Like a lot of hobbyists you enjoy collecting from a number of different angles-- cards, pins, ticket stubs, autgraphs, and what not. But now put yourself in the shoes of the guy who only enjoys breaking boxes; i.e., his enjoyment he gets from the hobby is limited to ripping packs. If you were this guy, and the current $ amount that you annually funnell into the hobby was spent exclusively on packs and boxes, do you think you would be as disinterested in the $ value of every box as you are now?
Maybe you would. If there's anyone on these board who I think would be emotionally capable of saying 'I don't care if they're worth anything to anyone else' it's probably you, Mike. But then, maybe you wouldn't. In either case it's an interesting perspective from which to approach the problem, and you may find that your ideas surrounding the real dollar value of boxes changes if you look at it this way.
We all have different motivations for being in the hobby, with the most common being to bring back that feeling you had as a kid opening packs getting the cards you needed. Some like to bring back the memories of their old favorites. Some want people to drool over their collections. Whatever the case, the companies have a responsibility to keep it going for future generations, but I really don't see that happening and they're shooting themselves in the foot by not giving their customers value.
Lee
Lee
<< <i>To follow up on what Boo is saying, overall, the card companies have clearly not been delivering for their customers. Otherwise, the hobby would not be in the state that it's in. 95% of the shops that were open 10 years ago have closed and kids are nearly non-existant in the hobby. The NBA is on another upswing with the rejuvination of talent, the NFL has never been more popular, and MLB is always going strong. You would think that if card companies had any idea what they were doing, then these trends would be reflected in the market, but they're not.
We all have different motivations for being in the hobby, with the most common being to bring back that feeling you had as a kid opening packs getting the cards you needed. Some like to bring back the memories of their old favorites. Some want people to drool over their collections. Whatever the case, the companies have a responsibility to keep it going for future generations, but I really don't see that happening and they're shooting themselves in the foot by not giving their customers value.
Lee >>
YES!! Thank you! That's exactly what I'm trying to get at. I'm trying to explain WHY this hobby is shrinking despite the soaring popularity of professional sports. Vicarious involvement in pro athletics has never been more popular. Fantasy leages continue to become more popular every year, and there appears to be no end to the influx of new money into the sports betting market. But the sports card industry, for some reason, continues to languish Now, is it just that peoples tastes have shifted? Maybe, but I think the current state of the modern card market is largely responsible for this decline, and a BIG part of the reason is the terrible return you get on a box of cards. And this is coming from a guy who hasn't ripped a single new box of cards in over six years. When it comes to busting modern boxes I'm as uncommitted as the biggest T206 snob on the Network54 boards. But the state of the modern hobby still concerns me, which is why I spend so much time writing these long winded posts about it.
<< <i>the success of a box break by the $ value of the cards they pull, and there's nothing wrong with asking that the card companies do more to keep those people happy. >>
Let me get this straight...
You want the card company to insure the value of the box?
How? Manipulate the numbers? Influence the numbers? The Beckett or ebay value is a reflection of demand.
What can they do?
mike
<< <i>But the state of the modern hobby still concerns me, which is why I spend so much time writing these long winded posts about it. >>
I would never question your devotion or passion.
But the card companies - at this point - may be between a rock and a hard place about the whole state of affairs.
The whole thing about opening a box and equating it directly and solely by the dollar value may be the problem.
Keep in mind - I don't want this discussion to be personal - not with you or anyone Boo.
When we have to write things down - things can get misunderstood.
I like you guys.
This TOO is part of the hobby - I agree.
mike
<< <i>
<< <i>the success of a box break by the $ value of the cards they pull, and there's nothing wrong with asking that the card companies do more to keep those people happy. >>
Let me get this straight...
You want the card company to insure the value of the box?
How? Manipulate the numbers? Influence the numbers? The Beckett or ebay value is a reflection of demand.
What can they do?
mike >>
Well, like I said before-- they can quit stuffing boxes with lousy autos and charging $100 a box for the priviledge of pulling that lousy auto. I think that's a fine place to start, anyway. Another idea I've had before would be to distribute 'home town' boxes, or something like it, in which the boxes with the home town designation contain GU and autos from players that played in a particular city (e.g., if you're distributing boxes in Detroit, then any 2nd tier autos in that box will be of Tigers, or Pistons, and so on. If the box is distributed in New York it will have Mets or Knicks or Giants. So if I buy a box, and my 'hit' is a 2nd tier auto, there's a much greater chance that it will actually be of a player I enjoy watching and rooting for.)
I also like the idea of more parallels and neat insert sets, and maybe something like what Gold Label tried to do, where there are three basic sets in every issue, so that you would have three base cards (like the Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3 in the old Gold Label products) of every player.
The only one I thought was semi-cute was Blair. The rest of the cast didn't do much for me (especially Mrs. Garrett - yikes!)...
If Topps offered regular boxes at $30, Heritage boxes at $50-60, and some high end box at $80-100, and that was it, we would at least know what's out there, and make an educated guess as to what to buy. Now it's like throwing darts at a dartboard for somebody new entering the hobby.
Lee
I was on a plane with her in 1983 - she is very short!
But cute!
mike