question
MajorDanby
Posts: 1,343
humor me for just a few seconds...
if you could change one thing about the current state of the hobby, what would it be?
No graded cards?
No mass production of modern cards?
Comeback of card shows?
Or is the hobby a reflection of something larger??....the state of baseball, basketball, football and hockey as sports??....the structure of our economy that creates the onset of mass production of modern baseball cards???....
thanks in advance
if you could change one thing about the current state of the hobby, what would it be?
No graded cards?
No mass production of modern cards?
Comeback of card shows?
Or is the hobby a reflection of something larger??....the state of baseball, basketball, football and hockey as sports??....the structure of our economy that creates the onset of mass production of modern baseball cards???....
thanks in advance
0
Comments
I think it is an utter disgrace that these companies are carving up bats and jerseys from Ruth, Cobb, Wagner and the rest. Those items should be preserved whole in a museum for all to see, not chopped up so they can make a profit. When all is said and done years from now there will be more regrets over losing those pieces of history forever than anything else the hobby has ever seen.
-- Yogi Berra
B-The numerous amounts of sets. I personally stick to Topps/Bowman products but even then trying to get a rookie set of any player is dang near impossible nowadays. The only reason overproduction is not as big of an issue b/c it is masked but the multiple number of sets per year.
Mark Mulder rookies
Chipper Jones rookies
Orlando Cabrera rookies
Lawrence Taylor
Sam Huff
Lavar Arrington
NY Giants
NY Yankees
NJ Nets
NJ Devils
1950s-1960s Topps NY Giants Team cards
Looking for Topps rookies as well.
References:
GregM13
VintageJeff
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
... and I second the "no more game used cards" motion.
<< <i>Get rid of 'inserts.' It started a phenomenon with kids (and adults) trying to hit it rich for the big insert card. I think it all started in 1990 or 1991 with Donruss and those 1 of 5000 inserts, can't recall the name. The insert has not provided anything positive to the sports card collecting hobby. >>
1989 or 1990 pro set football had a lombardi hologram that went for huge $ and lots of it got opened looking for the magic bean. 1991 Donruss had the Elite inserts you were talking about, and the 1991 Pro Line football had an auto per box.
I agree about inserts and especially the game used stuff. Even with so many sets, you could collect "everything" if there were no inserts. But packs wouldn't be $20 or $200 and demand would be so much lower. It would almost be a "hobby"!
and some of the greedy adults leave.
Oscar Wilde
Collect for the love of the hobby, the beauty of the coins, and enjoy the ride.
Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society.
<< <i>I would love for grisly old-timers to stop complaining about "shiny" cards. It gets really annoying and becomes cliche.
lol, I'm a youngster and I also collect those shiny cards.
Mark Mulder rookies
Chipper Jones rookies
Orlando Cabrera rookies
Lawrence Taylor
Sam Huff
Lavar Arrington
NY Giants
NY Yankees
NJ Nets
NJ Devils
1950s-1960s Topps NY Giants Team cards
Looking for Topps rookies as well.
References:
GregM13
VintageJeff
Which would be fine if it weren't for the second component in this; i.e, people expecting their cards to appreciate-- or at least not completely depreciate-- in the future. So what's a card company supposed to do? They can't just increase print runs, or they'll be too much of everything and none if it will hold its value. And they don't want to limit print runs, since the marignal cost of making another 10,000,000 cards or whatever is minimal. So, they come up with the tier system we have now, where different products have different price points, and virtually every product has inserts that are either serial numbered or has a limited print run.
This was, so far as I can see, the only way the card companies could respond to this seismic shift in the culture of card collecting. And you know what? In large part, it worked! True, many modern cards have bottomed out in value, and that will continue as long as you have people with limited analytic skills emptying their wallets on the latest prospect from single A ball. But again, there is nothing the card companies can do to stop this kind of financially irresponsible speculation from occuring on the secondary market. Further, many (but not all) of the limited inserts, parallels, refractors, etc. HAVE held at least a fraction of their value from the day of release. Look at the Select Mirror Golds, or the '93 Refractors. Or check and see what cards with limited print runs featuring Favre, Marino, Emmitt, Clemens, etc. sell for on Ebay. These cards have not bottomed out. They're still considered very collectible, and people still pay good money for them.
And as far as 'returning to the good old days', let me say this-- if you think the old days were that great, then go out and buy a couple cases of '88 Donruss and bust all forty boxes with no intention of submitting the high end cards to a grading company, and see how long you last. This is as close as you can get to replicating the 'good old days', since the packs are cheap and loaded with HOFers, and there's nothing you can do to the cards after you open them (i.e., grade them) to increase their value. The ONLY reason busting old wax is fun is because there's a chance you could find a high dollar card. That's the fact. If there's zero hope of hitting a big card all the allure is gone, and that goes for '77 wax packs or 2002 Prestige and anything in between. Anyone who thinks the state of the modern hobby is marred by greed better not be out buying boxes from the '70's from Steve Hart, because what YOU'RE looking for and what the guy who buys a new box of SPX are looking for are basically the same; i.e, a big card that will pay for the price of the box and then some.
I have all kinds of issues I'd like to take up with Topps and Upper Deck (especially the latter), but one thing I have to say is this: They've done about as good of a job as can be expected of adapting to changes in the card collecting culture. And despite what a lot of guys on this board would like to think, the differences between a modern card collector and a vintage card collector are pretty damn small.
Rich
<< <i>I got out of baseball and sports cards in 1990. The reasons: Too many brands, Score, Upper Deck, Donruss, Fleer, Topps, Bowman, the Pacific minor league cards. I was overwhelmed. Then came slabbed cards and inserts that no one could get unless you were very, very lucky. What happened to baseball cards with a players picture on one side and his stats on the other. I didn't need, or want the glitter, gilt edges. holograms, etc. I boxed them all up and stored them for posterity. >>
There are still a ton of low end sets out there that you can collect which don't have all the bells and whistles. Go buy a box of Victory, or Bazooka, or the base Topps or UD sets. The SRP's on most of these products are around a buck a pack, which compares favorably ( in terms of real dollars) with the prices from 20 years ago. If you don't like all the different sets then the simple thing to do is pretend they don't exist.
I'd rather see an end to the game used stuff than anything else. Historic jerseys should be on display at Cooperstown or at the National. Not in some Donruss box....
<< <i>Cutting up vintage jerseys and bats (Ruth, etc) is just insanity to me.
I'd rather see an end to the game used stuff than anything else. Historic jerseys should be on display at Cooperstown or at the National. Not in some Donruss box.... >>
I agree.
That is equivalent to chopping up an 1804 Silver dollar or a 1913 V-Nickel so a few people can own a piece of it. It does no one any good.
Oscar Wilde
Collect for the love of the hobby, the beauty of the coins, and enjoy the ride.
Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society.
2. No multiple paralell inserts (silver, gold, platinum, refractor, super refractor, red, blue). Make auto's etc. Short Prints of a base set or a set all on its own.
3. 2 or 3 release per brand e.g. 4-6 total sets for the year. This is the most important item!
4. No factory sets. Must collect from packs.
Is nothing sacred anymore? C'mon Topps, doesn't the 1952 set deserve a little more respect?
In all seriousness, call me silly, but I've never been happier in the hobby. This is basically due to the fact that I have 24-hour access to a card show that far exceeds even the best card show, that of course being ebay. I guess the internet in general adds to my happiness, whether it be reading these boards, looking at the set registry, or even just visiting the web-sites of the major card companies.
There is one other thing I don't undertand: Why did Topps stop producing Heritage Hockey and Basketball? Try finding an unopened box of Heritage Hockey (the TV style ones).
Eliminate the rookie card phenomenon.
Remember when you and I were kids (for those older than 40)? The rookie cards were the ones put in the junk pile because 1) we never heard of the player or 2) they were on cards with other players we never heard of.
Remember collecting since the early 70's and believe the RC is greatly overblown. Personally, I prefer to collect "cool" -looking, classic, sharp, well-centered,high-grade (not necessarily graded) cards.
Perhaps ONE insert to claim an ENTIRE game-used jersey?
I've been thinking about cutting up my work ties, autographing address labels, and sending them to Knuckles to make me a sweet NJMH work-worn tie! Now, wouldn't that be spiffy?
That's my main problem, players having hundreds of rookie cards.
Sorta like my "points to ponder" thing.
I agree with Steve about the state of the hobby to a degree - but the card companies (remaining) are listening and have proposed some things to improve the state of current/modern collecting:
In 2004, there were 253 product releases.
In 2005, there were 197.
It's anticipated that there will be 126 for 2006.
Also, there will be increased advertising of baseball cards and an increased presence of the card manufacturers at Stadiums throughout the country.
The manufacturers will also promote their products with special offers in SI for Kids and Tuff Stuff this year, e.g..
To further sweeten the pot, a National Baseball Card Day has been slated for June 17 and local shops have been guaranteed special "give away" promotional packs.
All of this is geared at bringing kids back to the hobby.
And last, if Topps, e.g., is trying to bring kids back with "kid friendly" pricing. What, if anything, does the plan to have "highend" products like Triple threads at $150 for a 2 pack box, by Topps, do for the hobby?
Good? Bad? Just another day in the park?
I will have to say, I'm one of the proponents of the concept that a "strong modern card market, translates into a stronger vintage market down the road."
I think, no matter how long one stays in this hobby, expect change, expect change and expect more change - a hobby is a dynamic entity.
mike
<< <i>How many rookie cards does Pujols have?
That's my main problem, players having hundreds of rookie cards. >>
I've never understood why people object so strongly to multiple RC's. The hobby only has to be as complicated as you want to make it. Nobody puts a gun to your head and tells you you have to know every detail about every release; just pick one or two or three releases and target those for your collecting purposes. The rest you can just ignore.
When I first "returned" to this hobby in 2004 and stumbled upon this forum, this was one of the first posts I made:
Yah know, I'd like to see some "cheap" cards come back.
I still feel the same way. I don't mind fewer variety and overproduction of some sets if this means more and more people, especially kids, can obtain them. After all, they're ones that is suppose to keep his hobby alive long after most of us are gone.
I think there are still a few press operators who are cranking out '88 - '90 Donruss today because they missed the memo to stop production. Just my $.02.
Continuing its momentum, Donruss produced a corresponding baseball set for Canadian collectors in 1985 known as Leaf. The sets, which ran for four years, were virtually identical to the Donruss cards with the exception of the backs, which contained both French and English text and a Leaf logo on the front.
Also, pioneering the growing rookie card craze, Donruss produced a 56-card boxed set known as "The Rookies" in 1986. Featuring the top prospects in the major leagues and available only in hobby shops, the set was an instant success.
mike
and
no more exchange cards!
<< <i>Speaking for myself, aside from destroying historical artifacts such as uniforms, bats, etc.., I really don't mind the hobby, and way of conducting business within the hobby, evolves over a period of time. It's just that it has evolved from being a "kid's hobby" now. The bulk of the collectors that keep this industry alive today started when they were very young and are now grown up with a little more expendible income to funnel it into. I'm more concerned that in the years to come, fresh interest will be less and less. My kids will never know (and appreciate) the joy of walking down to the neighborhood corner store, plop down a buck or two for gum and walk out with a handful of cardboard memories on the way out. Now granted, that's just my romantic memory of my childhood, but it's also the same reason why I'm still pumping money into this industry today.
When I first "returned" to this hobby in 2004 and stumbled upon this forum, this was one of the first posts I made:
Yah know, I'd like to see some "cheap" cards come back.
I still feel the same way. I don't mind fewer variety and overproduction of some sets if this means more and more people, especially kids, can obtain them. After all, they're ones that is suppose to keep his hobby alive long after most of us are gone. >>
Seriously-- are you guys even paying attention to modern card prices? The SRP of Topps 2006 is $1.59 for a 10 card pack, which is far from unreasonable. Other products, such as Bazooka, Victory, MVP, etc., have historically featured low SRP's as well. If your kids don't know the joy of walking down to the neighborhood store and buying a pack of cards it's not because the cards are too expensive.
Also people who label cards wrong in auction intentionally. They have 10000 feedback so they obviously know what is up but they list....
RARE Bill Ripken Black Box Error The BBox was not a error and not rare by any means.
and you're right....it WAS succesful. If you compare the baseball hobby as a business today to what it was in the 50's, 60's and 70's...it doesnt even compare. Topps held a monopoly...and it wasnt exactly the most profitable monopoly either as baseball cards were seen primarily for kids. Today, you have droves of middle aged men buying $50 packs hoping to get an insert that features a piece of a signed jock strap that honus wagner wore in the early 20th century. As a result, of course, the hobby is no longer "innocent" as it was before the mass production of baseball cards and the abnormal urge to spend huge wads of money on cards slabbed with a specific number attached them. hence, most vintage collectors (note: collectors, not sellers) yearning for the good ol days when you didnt have to take out a second mortgage to get a hall of fame caramel card.
The hobby no longer puts collectors on equal footing. Before the price differentials created by grading, the rookie craze in the late 80's, the mass speculation and the mass production of modern cards...attaining a card wasnt a function of how much money you had...it was how much research you put in, how many shows you went to, how many packs you ripped open and how many fellow collectors you knew.
<< <i>boopotts...interesting post. The creation of today's modern market was a reaction (say, back in the late 1980's) to the dramatic shift in the hobby from one of collectibilty and gum to one of speculation and investment. Like any business in a free market economy, topps, donruss and the rest of the companies in existence in the late 80's did what any business would....take the bacon and run. If the demand was there, provide the supply.
and you're right....it WAS succesful. If you compare the baseball hobby as a business today to what it was in the 50's, 60's and 70's...it doesnt even compare. Topps held a monopoly...and it wasnt exactly the most profitable monopoly either as baseball cards were seen primarily for kids. Today, you have droves of middle aged men buying $50 packs hoping to get an insert that features a piece of a signed jock strap that honus wagner wore in the early 20th century. As a result, of course, the hobby is no longer "innocent" as it was before the mass production of baseball cards and the abnormal urge to spend huge wads of money on cards slabbed with a specific number attached them. hence, most vintage collectors (note: collectors, not sellers) yearning for the good ol days when you didnt have to take out a second mortgage to get a hall of fame caramel card.
The hobby no longer puts collectors on equal footing. Before the price differentials created by grading, the rookie craze in the late 80's, the mass speculation and the mass production of modern cards...attaining a card wasnt a function of how much money you had...it was how much research you put in, how many shows you went to, how many packs you ripped open and how many fellow collectors you knew. >>
Hi Danby,
GREAT post by an obviously very thoughtful guy. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this. What the hobby is done is the same thing that virtually every market does as it matures-- it's begun to price target. There are some people who will pay $2 for a card with Greg Maddux's jersey on it-- for those folks there is Bazooka, UD, and a host of other releases. Other folks will pay $20 for that same card, and for those people we have Ultimate Collection, Triple Threads, and so on. But the thing I have never understood is why people say 'the hobby has gotten away from the kids'. Wha? There are MORE issues now targeted towards kids then there EVER were when we were all growing up. Back in my youth there were three brands-- Topps, Fleer and Donruss-- and you couldn't find the latter two 90% of the time. Once I'd finished off the Cardinals team sets from each year there was virtually no incentive to buy another pack. My 'card budget' between the ages of 10-13 was about 4$ a year, with maybe another 4$ going to hockey cards in hopes of completing a Blues team set. Whatever I didn't get out of that 4$ I traded for, and then I was basically done with it.
If I'd had the kind of choices available to me then that kids have now I just would have flipped out. ALL my money would have gone to cards. To this day I can't fathom what I would have done if I'd known I had a chance of pulling a card with a piece of Ozzie Smith or Joaquin Andujar or Bruce Sutter or Willie McGee's jersey in it. I probably would have begged, borrowed and stole every extre penny from every person I knew in order to buy more cards. If kids aren't in to cards now it's because they're too busy slurping Coke and playing Grand Theft Auto and working on cultivating an acute case of early onset diabetes to worry about pieces of cardboard featuring pictures of juiced up mega-men holding bats. And that is NOT the card companies' fault.
The hobby, as it stands today, has widened its focus to include both kids AND adults. And what's wrong with that? True, kids have a harder time getting excited about a box of MVP when they know the 'real good stuff' is in the SP Authentic boxes, but what's the alternative? There's a lot of money to be made in producing the high end stuff; nobody can reasonably expect UD and Topps to quit making it if it makes a profit and people want it. And as far as vintage goes, you can still put together graded sets in PSA 6 or 7 for maybe double what those cards would cost raw, and you can still find all the PSA 7 quality raw commons you want for any year after 1960 if you just look around. Now remember, what we call 'NM' is what used to be called 'mint' as recently as 10 years ago, so basically the price for putting together a set with cards in the 95th percentile condition-wise has changed very little.
In the final analysis I guess I just get sick of hearing people bash on the modern card market when they don't know anything about it. The knowledge that a lot of people here have about modern cards is limited to the occasional post someone puts up featuring some modern 'rarity' that sells for the price of a new Buick. Well, duh-- of course that's just totally off the chain. But there's a lot more going on in the modern market then the frickin' Alex Gordon Topps card, or the BGS 10 2001 Bowman Chrome Pujols. If you want proof then spend 20 minutes over on the Beckett board, where you'll find all kinds of guys that are trading-- yes, trading! Remember that??-- with each other for cards of their favorite team/ player. Just on a lark I decided recently to put together a nice run of Barry Sanders cards. Why not? I can buy them all day for $.25 a pop, and while I have zero intention of ever completing the run it's a lot of fun to see all the gonzo cards (acetate, 3D, cheesy Sportflix, etc.) that were made in the mid-late '90's. The modern card market CAN be complicated, but ultimately it's only as complicated as YOU want to make it. If you're not into keeping up on every release then just don't do it-- most guys have a couple brands that they focus on, and the rest they just live without.
Nothing has really changed, guys. It's still baseball cards (or football, or whatever), and you can still collect fairly cheaply if you're not completely beholden to a 'my dong is bigger than your dong' philosophy of collecting. You don't need the biggest, baddest set, or the 4 color jersy swatches, or any of that nonsense. All you need is a couple nickels in your pocket and a genuine appreciation for either a team or athlete that's played the game. If you have that then the modern market is just as rewarding as it was when you were a kid.
If I could change one thing it would be the schism between modern and vintage card collectors. I'm continually dismayed when I see some clown on the Network 54 board pooh-poohing anything that was produced after WW I, and by the same token I think it's sad when modern collectors dog on 'boring old vintage' sets. In fact, in the last year or so I've made a point of always keeping at least one 'modern' and one 'vintage' set in the project pile. Right now the 'vintage' set is '63 Topps Hockey, and the 'modern' set is '97 Flair Showcase. I'm also working on a set of cards of the NHL's greatest goons, if only because I'm not sure anyone's done it before. When I'm not screwing around with a set I'm looking around for cards to grade and sell-- vintage or modern, it doesn't matter-- since I get a kick out of that too.
<< <i>No more game used stuff, please. >>
It will never happen at this point in the game. That's the stuff that's driving this sinking hobby. The card companies have painted themselves into a corner and have no way to get out. First it was jersey cards. Then it was autographs. Now it's printing plates. Where do they go now??
Plus the fact that pulling a Nolan Ryan or a Duke Snider auto doesn't mean much when those guys auto's can be found in 6 different products every year. I'm done ripping cases on new product and will limit myself to a couple of boxes of what looks good just for fun. I'm having more fun working on my graded team sets and collecting auto's TTM. Gone are the days of spending $2,500 on a case or two and getting back an $800 return!!!
thanks for your reply. A question that stems from your latest post is whether the hobby has finally hit a wall. brianwinters posted a comment immediately after your post:
<< <i>That's the stuff that's driving this sinking hobby >>
And brianwinters IS a modern card collector, if memory serves me right. So, he isnt tainted by a bias for all vintage, all the time.
So, this begs the question...the modern card hobby had it's "peak" in the late 90's/early 2000 with the advent of the GU/Autos and the explosion of ichiro and pujols in the major leagues....but, with staple companies filing for bankruptcy (and most if not all the rest of the companies showing red in their latest returns), has the modern card market ran itself to the ground? Did the hobby actually hurt itself in the long run (in the short, i think you and i agree, that it helped the market immensely)? Or does the hobby still have enough creativity to survive (as was done after the rookie card craze with the parallel/insert craze...and as was done after with the GU/Auto craze)?
<< <i>boopotts
thanks for your reply. A question that stems from your latest post is whether the hobby has finally hit a wall. brianwinters posted a comment immediately after your post:
<< <i>That's the stuff that's driving this sinking hobby >>
And brianwinters IS a modern card collector, if memory serves me right. So, he isnt tainted by a bias for all vintage, all the time.
So, this begs the question...the modern card hobby had it's "peak" in the late 90's/early 2000 with the advent of the GU/Autos and the explosion of ichiro and pujols in the major leagues....but, with staple companies filing for bankruptcy (and most if not all the rest of the companies showing red in their latest returns), has the modern card market ran itself to the ground? Did the hobby actually hurt itself in the long run (in the short, i think you and i agree, that it helped the market immensely)? Or does the hobby still have enough creativity to survive (as was done after the rookie card craze with the parallel/insert craze...and as was done after with the GU/Auto craze)? >>
I don't think the hobby can sustain on the current market model, which involves $500 packs and an incredibly poor ROI for the average unopened box. There is almost nothing in the world more depressing then spending hundreds of dollars on a box and getting 10$ worth of cards back. A guy on the Beckett boards recently broke four packs of Ultimate Collection football, and those packs yielded about $15-$20 worth of cards. Now this particular guy has ordered ANOTHER box, since he-- and I quote-- 'believes in the Law of Averages' (not much of a learning curve for this chap, I fear), but he has to be the exception. You p*ss away $400 often enough and eventually you're going to scream uncle.
But sports card collecting, in some way. shape or form, will continue on into the forseeable future, and that's the only thing I'm really concerned about. I don't care if products like Exquisite go the way of the Great White Buffalo-- that doesn't bother me in th least. If the profit margin shrinks then the major sports leagues will lower their liscensing costs, and active/retired ballplayers will lower their autograph fees, and the hobby will continue to march forward.
One big step the card companies can make towards getting themselves out of the red-- and simultaneously improving the hobby-- is to quit paying more for autographs then what the cards sell for on the secondary market. If Kevin Mench or whomever wants $20 an auto, and his cards sell for $5 (I'm just throwing a name out there, I have NO idea if these numbers are accurate) then just leave him out of the product. The card companies like to think that this 'guaranteed 2 autos per box' thing is a big hit with consumers, but if the number of 'decent' autos remains constant and the rest are lousy autos that were purchased for the sheer sake of fulfilling the per-box quotas then everyone loses. I'd rather pay $50 bucks for a box that may or may not contain an auto (but if it does contain an auto it's a 'good one'), then $75 for a box that will definitely contain two autos when odds that both of these autos will be worthless are very high.
I think the hobby, just like everything else, has ebbs and flows. BWF says the hobby is 'sinking'. Well, for whom is is sinking? There are something like 1,000,000 sports cards auctioned off on Ebay every month, so it looks like the hobby is doing just fine to me. I know I enjoy collecting as much now as I did in the past, so it's not sinking from a personal standpoint.... if the way you enjoy the hobby is by lathering up your rear end with petroleum jelly and buying $2500 cases of new product then yes-- I can see why you might feel a little jaded. But all that's required at this point is a new approach to collecting, not an abandonment of collecting entirely.
<< <i>And brianwinters IS a modern card collector, if memory serves me right. So, he isnt tainted by a bias for all vintage, all the time. >>
I would not consider myself a collector of modern cards(last 20+ years). I was big into ripping cases for fun but would then flip everything and start again. My collection consists of cards from the 50's-early 80's. I also work at a card shop so I'm around modern product but don't have a single card in my collection past 1982.
<< <i>BWF says the hobby is 'sinking'. Well, for whom is is sinking? >>
Well that comment was directed at new product and not the hobby as a whole. Vintage stuff will always have a following but it's the ton of new product that is killing off that end of it in my opinion. I like what you said about the $50 box vs. the $75 box. I would much rather not get anything then to get two crappy jersey cards or two autographs from some bench warmers. A prime example is a friend of mine who stopped in at the store last night. He bought a box of 2006 Elite football and his two jersey cards might get him $5.00 if he's lucky. To me that's not good value for what he paid and there lies the problem. As far as me greasing up my a** and bending over is concerned it wasn't always that bad. Ripping and flipping cases worked well for me and I made some decent $$ but recently I have noticed far less returns on my investment. I think that comes from the market being flooded with a lot of the same product and the values falling on those cards.
Changes need to be made to keep that portion of the hobby going or there will be another crash as there was in the mid 90's.
Seeking primarily PSA graded pre-war "type" cards
My PSA Registry Sets
34 Goudey, 75 Topps Mini, Hall of Fame Complete Set, 1985 Topps Tiffany, Hall of Fame Players Complete Set
Seeking primarily PSA graded pre-war "type" cards
My PSA Registry Sets
34 Goudey, 75 Topps Mini, Hall of Fame Complete Set, 1985 Topps Tiffany, Hall of Fame Players Complete Set
<< <i>the proliferation of sets is confusing and is a barrier to entry to the hobby in my opinion. I am relatively new to this and fortunately (I think) am focused on early 50 (52,54,55) Topps and 71. There were very few competing sets/products and the pops are relatively low for the higher grade cards. Other than buying the basic sets now for Topps, I avoid everything else because I don't have the time to research it and there is way too much product out there to make me think these modern cards have any intrisic or invesment value other than to EBAY sellers. Of course there are exceptions and you all know what they are, but life was simpler in the early 50s when I was just starting to buy cards and I don't think the card mfg.'s have figured out a way to get kids to experience the absolute joy of opening a pack and finding a Mantle, Mays or Williams card. Too bad I used them in the spokes of my bike. >>
What? Just go to the store and buy a pack of whatever, and pull a Pujols or Arod or Jeter. How is pulling a card of a superstar now any different than pulling a card of a superstar back in 1954? And if it IS different for some reason that's because the kids have changed. That part of the hobby is EXACTLY the same as it was in 1952; go to the store, buy a pack of cards and see what you get.
Also, you can't just go back to having one or two sets released every year. People keep bringing this up, but it should be obvious to everyone that you can't go back to the market model that worked during the Eisenhower administration. Demand is much larger than it was in the 1950's, and if you did that you'd completely overproduce everything and nobody would want any of it. The current tier system was designed in part as a response to increased demand. You may think the market model sucks now, but would you want to revert to the one used in 1989? Because that's your only alternative.
<< <i>What? Just go to the store and buy a pack of whatever, and pull a Pujols or Arod or Jeter. How is pulling a card of a superstar now any different than pulling a card of a superstar back in 1954? And if it IS different for some reason that's because the kids have changed. That part of the hobby is EXACTLY the same as it was in 1952; go to the store, buy a pack of cards and see what you get. >>
this is where we disagree, boopotts. I understand your point about the very slim possiblity of card companies ever reverting back to the 50-70's model. No industry in it's right mind would do so given that the demand for MANY different kinds of products is still there. But, as a collector who grew up in the late 80's, early 90's...i find it extremely frustrating to walk into a card shop and have to REALLY think hard about what pack to buy. As a kid, i knew what brands were coming out...and which were high end and low end...and what i would feasibly get out of each pack/box. Now, i didnt start buying cards till the early 90's....so, i am a product of the insert card craze (although not as extreme). So, i do have persepctive in the sense that i did not grow up in an era where there were only one or three major companies to choose from.
I went to target the other day to see if i could buy a box to break out.....there were about 5 million brands to choose from. I got so frustrated, i just bought a package of oreos and left. From a capitalistic standpoint, that's great to have so much selection! I agree that i would rather have more choices than just Topps. But, we've gone from one end of the extreme to the other in a matter of less than 2 decades. For a knowledgeable collector trying to get into the modern card hobby...it's frustrating because you dont know what brands to choose from.
But, maybe that doesnt matter. Maybe you're right...it's simply just a matter of a kid coming into a store, seeing a pack of cards that looks cool...and buying it. If there are a million packs to choose from, then so be it.
An analysis of how much the hobby (in terms of profit, number collectors by demographic group, number of products produced, etc) has changed in the past 20 years would be very interesting. Unfortunately, i dont think too many mutual fund companies and/or research think thanks care too much about the card market.
<< <i>
<< <i>What? Just go to the store and buy a pack of whatever, and pull a Pujols or Arod or Jeter. How is pulling a card of a superstar now any different than pulling a card of a superstar back in 1954? And if it IS different for some reason that's because the kids have changed. That part of the hobby is EXACTLY the same as it was in 1952; go to the store, buy a pack of cards and see what you get. >>
this is where we disagree, boopotts. I understand your point about the very slim possiblity of card companies ever reverting back to the 50-70's model. No industry in it's right mind would do so given that the demand for MANY different kinds of products is still there. But, as a collector who grew up in the late 80's, early 90's...i find it extremely frustrating to walk into a card shop and have to REALLY think hard about what pack to buy. As a kid, i knew what brands were coming out...and which were high end and low end...and what i would feasibly get out of each pack/box. Now, i didnt start buying cards till the early 90's....so, i am a product of the insert card craze (although not as extreme). So, i do have persepctive in the sense that i did not grow up in an era where there were only one or three major companies to choose from.
I went to target the other day to see if i could buy a box to break out.....there were about 5 million brands to choose from. I got so frustrated, i just bought a package of oreos and left. From a capitalistic standpoint, that's great to have so much selection! I agree that i would rather have more choices than just Topps. But, we've gone from one end of the extreme to the other in a matter of less than 2 decades. For a knowledgeable collector trying to get into the modern card hobby...it's frustrating because you dont know what brands to choose from.
But, maybe that doesnt matter. Maybe you're right...it's simply just a matter of a kid coming into a store, seeing a pack of cards that looks cool...and buying it. If there are a million packs to choose from, then so be it.
An analysis of how much the hobby (in terms of profit, number collectors by demographic group, number of products produced, etc) has changed in the past 20 years would be very interesting. Unfortunately, i dont think too many mutual fund companies and/or research think thanks care too much about the card market. >>
I really think the trick is just to ignore most of the new stuff and concentrate on those releases that you generally enjoy. If you hear great things about a new product then it may be worth taking a flyer, but otherwise stick to what you know. The problem that most vintage collectors run into when confronted with the modern market is that they're used to knowing EVERYTHING-- or at least close to everything-- about an issue or player they collect. Look at the guys on these boards; they've committed to memory the tough, low pops in the sets they collect, the average going price in PSA 7,8 and 9 for about 70% of the set, etc. etc. I'll bet you that Marc (Mikeschmidt on these boards), for instance, can tell you right now what the 10 hardest and 10 easiest Schmidt cards in PSA 10 are, and there are plenty of other guys who can do the same with the players that they collect. That's great if you can accrue that kind of knowledge, but it just isn't feasible with new stuff. You just have to learn to shrug most of it off and stick with what you like, be it Bowman Chrome, SP Authentic, or whatever.
BWF brings up a great point when he talks about the prohibitive cost of breaking most boxes. This, IMO, isn't so much a problem for hobby vets, since they know going in that they're probably going to get reamed as soon as they break the shrink wrap, but I can see how a newcomer could get turned off real quick if he kept buying 100$ boxes and getting $15 worth of cards in return. This idea that it's OK to pump up the price of the box by simply guaranteeing an AJ Pierzynski and a Jeff Cirillo auto in each box is eventually going to disintegrate-- as well it should. Beckett will try to prop it up for as long as they can with their utterly fraudulent 'Box Break Review' articles ( 'The box may sell for $125, but look at this GORGEOUS Orlando Cabrera patch card we pulled!) ,but that gimmick will only work for so long. If the prices don't come down, or the quality doesn't increase, we're going to see some changes in the next 5 years IMO.
As with vintage, a collector will have more fun with modern if he carves out a niche for himself and just forgets about the rest of the surface noise. It can be done, and it IS being done by thousands of modern collectors currently active in the hobby. You don't have to accrue every card ever produced of a certain player to enjoy player collecting, and you don't have to find every single XFractor to enjoy putting together a nice set. If more guys on these boards just picked a random modern set to put together, and took a low key approach to completing it, I bet they'd be surprised at how much fun they had with it.
<< <i>What? Just go to the store and buy a pack of whatever, and pull a Pujols or Arod or Jeter. How is pulling a card of a superstar now any different than pulling a card of a superstar back in 1954? And if it IS different for some reason that's because the kids have changed. That part of the hobby is EXACTLY the same as it was in 1952; go to the store, buy a pack of cards and see what you get.
this is where we disagree, boopotts. I understand your point about the very slim possiblity of card companies ever reverting back to the 50-70's model. No industry in it's right mind would do so given that the demand for MANY different kinds of products is still there. But, as a collector who grew up in the late 80's, early 90's...i find it extremely frustrating to walk into a card shop and have to REALLY think hard about what pack to buy. As a kid, i knew what brands were coming out...and which were high end and low end...and what i would feasibly get out of each pack/box. Now, i didnt start buying cards till the early 90's....so, i am a product of the insert card craze (although not as extreme). So, i do have persepctive in the sense that i did not grow up in an era where there were only one or three major companies to choose from.
I went to target the other day to see if i could buy a box to break out.....there were about 5 million brands to choose from. I got so frustrated, i just bought a package of oreos and left. From a capitalistic standpoint, that's great to have so much selection! I agree that i would rather have more choices than just Topps. But, we've gone from one end of the extreme to the other in a matter of less than 2 decades. For a knowledgeable collector trying to get into the modern card hobby...it's frustrating because you dont know what brands to choose from.
But, maybe that doesnt matter. Maybe you're right...it's simply just a matter of a kid coming into a store, seeing a pack of cards that looks cool...and buying it. If there are a million packs to choose from, then so be it.
An analysis of how much the hobby (in terms of profit, number collectors by demographic group, number of products produced, etc) has changed in the past 20 years would be very interesting. Unfortunately, i dont think too many mutual fund companies and/or research think thanks care too much about the card market. >>
I really think the trick is just to ignore most of the new stuff and concentrate on those releases that you generally enjoy. If you hear great things about a new product then it may be worth taking a flyer, but otherwise stick to what you know. The problem that most vintage collectors run into when confronted with the modern market is that they're used to knowing EVERYTHING-- or at least close to everything-- about an issue or player they collect. Look at the guys on these boards; they've committed to memory the tough, low pops in the sets they collect, the average going price in PSA 7,8 and 9 for about 70% of the set, etc. etc. I'll bet you that Marc (Mikeschmidt on these boards), for instance, can tell you right now what the 10 hardest and 10 easiest Schmidt cards in PSA 10 are, and there are plenty of other guys who can do the same with the players that they collect. That's great if you can accrue that kind of knowledge, but it just isn't feasible with new stuff. You just have to learn to shrug most of it off and stick with what you like, be it Bowman Chrome, SP Authentic, or whatever.
BWF brings up a great point when he talks about the prohibitive cost of breaking most boxes. This, IMO, isn't so much a problem for hobby vets, since they know going in that they're probably going to get reamed as soon as they break the shrink wrap, but I can see how a newcomer could get turned off real quick if he kept buying 100$ boxes and getting $15 worth of cards in return. This idea that it's OK to pump up the price of the box by simply guaranteeing an AJ Pierzynski and a Jeff Cirillo auto in each box is eventually going to disintegrate-- as well it should. Beckett will try to prop it up for as long as they can with their utterly fraudulent 'Box Break Review' articles ( 'The box may sell for $125, but look at this GORGEOUS Orlando Cabrera patch card we pulled!) ,but that gimmick will only work for so long. If the prices don't come down, or the quality doesn't increase, we're going to see some changes in the next 5 years IMO.
As with vintage, a collector will have more fun with modern if he carves out a niche for himself and just forgets about the rest of the surface noise. It can be done, and it IS being done by thousands of modern collectors currently active in the hobby. You don't have to accrue every card ever produced of a certain player to enjoy player collecting, and you don't have to find every single XFractor to enjoy putting together a nice set. If more guys on these boards just picked a random modern set to put together (even better if they do it with a son or daugther), and took a low key approach to completing it, I bet they'd be surprised at how much fun they had with it.
Nothing else, just thought I'd add that.
shawn