Will the precious metals nosedive affect numismatic coins?

291fifth

In theory, it shouldn't, but I bet it will. It's all in the mind. Watch major shows and auctions carefully for signs.

PerryHall

Only those coins where the bullion value is a major portion of the overall value such as common date, low grade eagles and double eagles (MS62 or less).

Coxe

If indeed they were nosediving as a sustained response to economic factors, coins valued largely on their melt value would go right along with them but rare coins would be affected by the same factors driving gold and the other metals down as tangible investments but not gold directly.

pharmer

This same question was asked a couple weeks ago but then it was about the effect on coins of the price rise in metals. Can't remember what the opinions were, but I'm sure the folks who may have been depressed then are feeling just peachy today.

"I used to be a paranoid schizophrenic, but I'm feeling much better now!" John Aston as Gomez Addams

topstuf

YES! Your rare coins should be nearly worthless by next Tuesday.

lloydmincy

Nosedive? Plummet? Tanking??

This is not the case at all. Still just a drop. Not even an official correction until a 20% drop from highs, which the stock market does every 3 years, on average...

lkenefic

<< <i>YES! Your rare coins should be nearly worthless by next Tuesday. >>



...EXACTLY...sell them all to me!!

INXS

Still waiting for the mint to retract the increase. I am betting the Gold Buffalos wont be coming out at $900+ anytime soon they have until the 22nd to offer it for sale. I am not sure if its "no use, you lose" or just how the law was written.

jdimmick

I hate to say it, but I think it will have adverse affects? Probably not the upper range and super choice, but the rest?

fc

i know from looking at a lot of half eagles, mainly lower end,
it directly affects their price.

take an AU58 190* common half eagle. during the frenzy of
the peak gold, they were confidently fetching 250 on the bay.

now, today. 220 if you are lucky as a seller for a common
half eagle. 200 is more likely today and this is slabbed by PCGS.

FatMan

I suspect the the tone of the GNA show will be subdued as many dealers will be eating their inventory of generic gold. I'll let you know when I get back on Sunday.

I suspect it will be the same if not even more so at Long Beach.

cladking

What nosedive? The metals are still far higher than they were a couple years ago and
barring an economic catastrophe which would render these questions moot, they will stay
far higher. Even if the drop continues a while, coins didn't run up on the backs of higher
precious metals so will be generally little affected.

When people start expecting lower prices then they'll break out again. The major trends
are still in place and metals are bound to be higher in time.

chabot510

I think the correction in the bullion markets will def. have some affect on the coin market.

What disturbs me about the market right now is the amount of auctions held recently. In the past 2-3 weeks there have been numerous auctions (Bowers, Superior, Stacks, Heritage, Goldberg)

By looking at all these sales I feel as if many people are trying to liquidate before a sharp correction. This is just the feel I am getting from the market.

However, in many of the auctions (except for Stacks), most of the offerings were coins in NGC plastic. Attractive PCGS correctly graded coins are becoming very difficult to find in this market at reasonable levels. Perhaps this is a sign that the market still has room to grow.

JMO, I am treading cautiously.

Bear

The prices seemed strong for most quality items,

however the total volume of coins concerns me.

This does seem like liquidation going on.

ttxp

<< <i>I feel as if many people are trying to liquidate before a sharp correction >>



That's true and I agree, what's wonderful is that those who are selling in turn feed the passion of those who are buying. Rare coins are just that, rare, and they will always demand a strong price when the buyers outnumber the coins available.

A sellers market is also a buyers market, one just hurts a bit more than the other.

chabot510

<< <i>

<< <i>I feel as if many people are trying to liquidate before a sharp correction >>



That's true and I agree, what's wonderful is that those who are selling in turn feed the passion of those who are buying. Rare coins are just that, rare, and they will always demand a strong price when the buyers outnumber the coins available.

A sellers market is also a buyers market, one just hurts a bit more than the other. >>



I agree with this statement, however, if you flood the market you can in turn water down the prices on pieces that are 'rare' but still common

CoinValuesResearcher

The nosedive in precious metals markets will have no effect on coins that have been popular with collectors for a long time. These collectibles do not depend on the bullion content for their value, rather it is consistent demand from the collector base from which its intrinsic value is derived.

Anyone with a 1916-D Mercury dime, for example, need not worry about seeing a diminished value for this coin: It always has and always will be in demand from numismatists, thus driving prices ever higher over time.

TheRaven

But a great rise in metal prices brings more people into the market, which helps prices.....

Will a great fall in gold and silver prices take people out of the market, hense causing all coins to drop including the 1916-D dime.....

Eventually the red hot coin market has to slow.....

EarlyTypeManJohn

<< <i>Will a great fall in gold and silver prices take people out of the market, hense causing all coins to drop including the 1916-D dime..... >>


I think the people who enter the market due to a rise in metals and leave due to a fall in metals typically do not get entrenched enough and stay around long enough to have a big effect the prices of classic collector coins such as the 1916-D Mercury. I'll bet if metals really tank the price of MS64 $10 Indians falls far greater than the price of a 16-D dime or an 09-S VDB. But, I could be wrong. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.

Coxe

<< <i>However, in many of the auctions (except for Stacks), most of the offerings were coins in NGC plastic. Attractive PCGS correctly graded coins are becoming very difficult to find in this market at reasonable levels. Perhaps this is a sign that the market still has room to grow. >>



I noted that the Heritage internet auctions really started drying up quality material. I have seen more ANACS (nothing against old ANACS in general though) and NCS in these than ever before, more than Teletrade ran typically. Even the major sales are not measuring up in uniform quality of late. A lot of recycled and previously unsold material is topping the heaps anymore.