We are in the beginning of the PERFECT STORM in this economy in the USA and the WORLD.
I see--right now---people selling assets at less than 30 cents on the dollar to stay afloat..........and the blood is not yet running in the streets. The weakest hands are being picked clean right now.
Are you the PICKOR or the PICKEE? >>
I might hold off on an extreme assessment, but I sure as heck would want to be one of those folks who bought homes at the top of the market with negative amortization loans (paying less than the interest assuming valuation will only increase beyond that yielding positive equity) when their local real estate corrects say 20% ..... especially with all that bankruptcy reform.
John, I have never seen FIRST HAND or studied an economic scenario in this country that has the POTENTIAL to place so many people at risk. My experience is limited to the run up economy in CAL so that might be why I'm as nervous as I am. IMHO, much more potential risk than the late 1920's-----------when my grandfather lost 1500+ units in Chicago and my father hitched a boxcar down to K.C. to live with his aunt. The current state of this economy simply frightens the daylights out of me. NO JOKE.
I'm down here in San Diego and am seeing a lot of bad signs too. Won't be an alarmist but also won't sit on idle US dollars at this point. The thing to always not is that things ALWAYS come down a lot faster and harder than they go up. The problems we are facing are three decades in development. I agree, it can end up very, very ugly.
Why would you need gold when you have dollars. There's a real limited supply of those, dollars are getting rarer all the time. It's not like we have a government that likes to spend, no these guys are real tightwads.
Rare coins are better than gold too. After all that Morgan with the pretty colors will bring more than a few ounces of gold if inflation sets in, the Asian creditors love pretty colors.
Myself, I'm just a sucker. You can buy GM stock and be proud, I'll just grab a little gold and silver for my "midas complex"
The poor economic conditions are being masked over by the World Banks and the FED. Helped, of course, by the Media. I am not much for conspiracy theories - but once you get by the hucksters and look at the factual? economic data (M3 growth, CPI, Unemployment) you see the writing is on the wall. M3 money supply growing at 12% or more over the last three years, 8% or more from 95-02....and then we are told core inflation only 2.5%????? What????? I don't know about you, but, any idiot on the street can tell that prices have been increasing by 5+% annually over the last few years on common everyday goods.....and thats excluding oil/gas!!!!! How about your property taxes? Clothing, food, etc.?
Then the Unemployment figures.......unbeliveably LOW.....no problems.....hmmmm. Yes, the numbers may not exactly lie, but, what type and quality jobs are being filled???? Talk to our tech guys, see what they say. Talk about salary deflation.
Dont believe the hype you hear.
Insider selling of equity positions has been the highest in the last two weeks, highest since just before the tech bubble bursted in 2001. Seems like the big guys know what is about to happen.
Strong hands hold gold and silver. And for those of you that are fully invested in equities in your 401K and SEP's; take a word of advice and start to move out into cash positions or metal ETF's. I have divested of most equity positions and sit in 4.5-5% MM funds.......anyone who sitys fully invested in equities-you will be slaughtered when the market begins its freefall. And most of you thought gold was in a freefall today.
Same store sales in CAL right now are really in the dumper compared to 12 & 24 months ago. Sales reps never tell the truth but things are on the edge for a lot of stores right now.
As I travel around, I notice for sale and for lease signs springing up like tulips in April. A buddy of mine, who has a little store in a strip center has watched his store go from $80,000 a month gross to $18,000. Two of his suppliers are under water and his landlord told him it was OK to pay by the week if he wanted to stay.
Taubman was no dummy when he sold his stock in Sothebys.
We took an afternoon trip to Tahoe yesterday.... NO TRAFFIC! Haven't seen it that dead since the 50's. Came back on 80. Same story. NOBODY til just above Auburn.
Being from the hot NYC metro RE market - I will tell you that the number of "for sale" signs are more voluminous this year....but still no "sold" signs plastered across them....
Homes on the market 90+ days with no offers.
As opposed to relentless increasing market prices and sale duration in less than 2 weeks last year....
All the doom and gloom scenarios can't happen at the same time. Maybe we'll have one after another.
If the government is printing too much money and that results in inflation, that may be good news for people with fixed debts (like mortagages, student loans, car payments). I'll be happy to pay my debts off with inflated money so long as my salary keeps pace with inflation. On the other hand, inflation and higher interest rates are bad for people with credit card debts and other variable debt (ARM mortgages, etc.).
In the last few decades gold and silver have generally been very poor investments. Not as poor as putting your dollars under the mattress, but close. However, with a government hell-bent on spending like a drunken sailor, keeping dollar bills doesn't seem smart either.
Precious metals also seem to be a poor hedge for real hardcore Y2K-type doom and gloom scenarios of lawlessness and breakdown of society. (There's a group of coin collectors that also thinks about these things - don't know why.) However, counterfeiting will make such investments less desireable in the future. The Chinese are already copying bullion coins pretty well. If you've got gold and silver stashed away and something really bad happens, it might be hard to trade that precious metal for something else because the person on the other side of the transaction won't know if it's real. That will result in the average person heavily discounting its value, even during a crisis.
Still, you've gotta put your money somewhere. I don't understand the mindset that stocks will all crash. Why? Stocks have historically done well, and there is a lot of innovation and profit being created by American companies. When the dollar drops, our stocks should become even more appealing to foreign investors. And many Americans are set up to automatically invest in their 401(k) plans every pay period, so there is a constant stream of money flowing into the markets. Higher income Americans prefer to invest tax-deferred through 401(k)'s and the like, rather than pay a high marginal rate during their working years, and I don't see that changing. Moreover, if/when the Democrats take over they will increase tax rates (or let them increase when the Bush tax cuts expire), so that tax incentive will probably create increased demand for stocks.
Real estate also seems like a good bet, particularly now that it's taking a shellacking. Interest rates are still pretty low and there seem to be some deals out there. I don't know about you guys, but I'm not counting on any kind of pension in retirement. My employer doesn't offer one, and even if it did, I would be worried about a United Airlines-type transfer of the pension to the government insurance agency, which only pays 50 or 60 or 70 cents on the dollar. A 401(k) is a savings plan - not a pension. It's not really any different than having a stock account with Ameritrade or a bank account. No one's going to pay you X amount per month for the rest of your life. Once that money is used up, it's gone. Social Security is not something you can bank on, and even if you max out and pay in the most S.S. tax possible, you won't get much from it (maybe $2000 month - tops). Real estate seems like a good investment in that if you own a property or two that's paid off and which you can rent out when you're retired, you might be able to use the rental income to supplement your other income. Otherwise, how will you retire? Given the projected population growth (Census Bureau offers a "high" estimate of 500 million Americans by 2050), there will be continued demand for property.
The biggest problem facing this country is not macroeconomic. That will correct and reset as it always has. The bigger problem is individuals not saving, going into debt, and facing a retirement that will involve working at Wal-Mart or Burger King just in order to survive.
Just my .02.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Gold is a bad investment over the past 20-50 years or some other dribble......blah blah blah. Keep spouting that phrase.
Funny how quick it is mentioned how gold "can't buy" your way out of a hurricane or disaster.......yet somehow the fact that your stock certificates (in the hands of someone else to boot) get you even less than gold. We are nearing the point when the DOW heads off towards 6000 just as gold heads up again. The gold market is declared dead after a 3rd correction in 3 years in a confirmed bull market. Yet the stock market has yet to fathom a true shake out since 2001 which has occurred following every long term bull in this century. The correction to 7500 was just a blip...albeit a 30% blip. That will be tested soon enough. History says it's so.
The amount of anti-gold sentiment is really encouraging. It just means we have barely scratched the surface.
Everyone with fixed interest debt will love to pay off thier debt with inflated dollars - that is not the issue.
Your salary will most likely NOT keep up with the rate of inflation - that IS a major problem. This is especially true of private companies where outsourcing and off shore operations have been increasing. The only case where salaries keep pace are public jobs - the leeches that feed off the public tax rolls...........with big fat pensions to boot. And if there is any constriction of money supply -- - maybe many of us wont be working at all.
Keep believing that you cant get hurt in equities, that's what every great mind on Wall St wants you to believe. Stay in it for the long haul, it cant be long? Right?
Well this time it may be very long, maybe 8 or more years to recover, maybe more. It is not too long ago where the major indices moved sideways for 20+ years and never returned greater than 6% on a broad market basis for many of those years - and many years less than 6%.
And for real estate where amny hot areas have increased 100% or more in the last 5-6 years. Again, typical long term returns are more like 6-8% annually or less. I dont know about you, but, Putting a half a mil into an investment property to get 6-8% return from rent - but losinghalf in market value IS NOT a good investment.
<< <i>The poor economic conditions are being masked over by the World Banks and the FED. Helped, of course, by the Media. I am not much for conspiracy theories - but once you get by the hucksters and look at the factual? economic data (M3 growth, CPI, Unemployment) you see the writing is on the wall. M3 money supply growing at 12% or more over the last three years, 8% or more from 95-02....and then we are told core inflation only 2.5%????? What????? I don't know about you, but, any idiot on the street can tell that prices have been increasing by 5+% annually over the last few years on common everyday goods.....and thats excluding oil/gas!!!!! How about your property taxes? Clothing, food, etc.?
Then the Unemployment figures.......unbeliveably LOW.....no problems.....hmmmm. Yes, the numbers may not exactly lie, but, what type and quality jobs are being filled???? Talk to our tech guys, see what they say. Talk about salary deflation.
Dont believe the hype you hear.
Insider selling of equity positions has been the highest in the last two weeks, highest since just before the tech bubble bursted in 2001. Seems like the big guys know what is about to happen.
Strong hands hold gold and silver. And for those of you that are fully invested in equities in your 401K and SEP's; take a word of advice and start to move out into cash positions or metal ETF's. I have divested of most equity positions and sit in 4.5-5% MM funds.......anyone who sitys fully invested in equities-you will be slaughtered when the market begins its freefall. And most of you thought gold was in a freefall today. >>
Uhhhhhhhh, NO. Could you tell me how the World Banks and the Fed have set this into motion? This sounds like the very unsavory and blatantly false exporting inflation arguments of the 70's. Sorry, but this one is a pisser for me. I rarely react on econ edicts, but come on, this is a bit out there......
This tech guys says there are thousands of high tech jobs in oil right now. If someone lacks the skills to do them, get training and come on in, the water is fine. If someone won't get training and won't move, then I can't help them.
This tech guys says there are thousands of high tech jobs in oil right now. If someone lacks the skills to do them, get training and come on in, the water is fine. If someone won't get training and won't move, then I can't help them. >>
I can assure you it's not big oil, since I'm in it......it's layoff city and outsourcing to companies that will get India resources. Small companies that pay a fraction of the wages of the Big oils might be a different story, I don't know but IT is dying and jobs are being transfered.
IMPORTANT: Due to technical difficulties pricing being received is incorrect. We will not be able to honor any orders at this time. We are currently working on the issue and anticipate resolution shortly.
We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience.
It is not too long ago where the major indices moved sideways for 20+ years and never returned greater than 6% on a broad market basis for many of those years - and many years less than 6%.
Timing is everything. There were 3 30+% drops and 3 70+% rallies during the 70's. Sounds to me like a dream come true. If you dont want to play what the market gives you then dont complain.
The only reason we are in this predicament today IS because of the FED and Central Banks....and the politicians that allowed it to happen. No other reason. History makes this very clear. The fog of the 1980's and 90's has clouded everyone's judgement into believing that those 2 decades are a birthright and will continue for another 100 years. The experiment with pure fiat money is only 35 years old. You ain't seen nothing yet.
When gold returns to challenge it's recent $730 high can I expect to see the same naysayers stating, "gee, I guess the fat lady wasn't singing after all." There will be many more corrections like this in the coming years, only this current one will appear almost tame in comparison to the volatility that is coming. The 4 golden angels are continuing their pull.
Even if gold falls through the floor, it still out performs ENRON stock or the like. Besides, looking at a stack of gold eagles is somehow more comforting than intaglio printed stock certificates.
Gold is down, that's true. it will increase again, then drop, then increase, nothing new.
Comments
<< <i>Watch gold correct to $550.
We are in the beginning of the PERFECT STORM in this economy in the USA and the WORLD.
I see--right now---people selling assets at less than 30 cents on the dollar to stay afloat..........and the blood is not yet running in the streets. The weakest hands are being picked clean right now.
Are you the PICKOR or the PICKEE? >>
I might hold off on an extreme assessment, but I sure as heck would want to be one of those folks who bought homes at the top of the market with negative amortization loans (paying less than the interest assuming valuation will only increase beyond that yielding positive equity) when their local real estate corrects say 20% ..... especially with all that bankruptcy reform.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
I have never seen FIRST HAND or studied an economic scenario in this country that has the POTENTIAL to place so many people at risk. My experience is limited to the run up economy in CAL so that might be why I'm as nervous as I am.
IMHO, much more potential risk than the late 1920's-----------when my grandfather lost 1500+ units in Chicago and my father hitched a boxcar down to K.C. to live with his aunt. The current state of this economy simply frightens the daylights out of me. NO JOKE.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
Rare coins are better than gold too. After all that Morgan with the pretty colors will bring more than a few ounces of gold if inflation sets in, the Asian creditors love pretty colors.
Myself, I'm just a sucker. You can buy GM stock and be proud, I'll just grab a little gold and silver for my "midas complex"
right about the time Laura said sell sell sell, well,
it turned out to be good timing!
"an expected, temporary correction."
What did it cost Mincy for you to keep quiet?
$500 clams, thankyouverylittle, and I STILL haven't shut up!!
All you Californians - read my earlier post on this thread. I'M SERIOUS!!!! Sell RE at a high, and RENT....
Then the Unemployment figures.......unbeliveably LOW.....no problems.....hmmmm. Yes, the numbers may not exactly lie, but, what type and quality jobs are being filled???? Talk to our tech guys, see what they say. Talk about salary deflation.
Dont believe the hype you hear.
Insider selling of equity positions has been the highest in the last two weeks, highest since just before the tech bubble bursted in 2001. Seems like the big guys know what is about to happen.
Strong hands hold gold and silver. And for those of you that are fully invested in equities in your 401K and SEP's; take a word of advice and start to move out into cash positions or metal ETF's. I have divested of most equity positions and sit in 4.5-5% MM funds.......anyone who sitys fully invested in equities-you will be slaughtered when the market begins its freefall. And most of you thought gold was in a freefall today.
As I travel around, I notice for sale and for lease signs springing up like tulips in April. A buddy of mine, who has a little store in a strip center has watched his store go from $80,000 a month gross to $18,000. Two of his suppliers are under water and his landlord told him it was OK to pay by the week if he wanted to stay.
Taubman was no dummy when he sold his stock in Sothebys.
Now there's a landlord that ain't gonna be holdin no bag.
Maybe by the hour.
"May I help you?"
"Just the landlord. Got yer rent fer 10 O'clock?"
Came back on 80. Same story. NOBODY til just above Auburn.
Homes on the market 90+ days with no offers.
As opposed to relentless increasing market prices and sale duration in less than 2 weeks last year....
A big change. Get ready for a 20-25% drop in MV.
If the government is printing too much money and that results in inflation, that may be good news for people with fixed debts (like mortagages, student loans, car payments). I'll be happy to pay my debts off with inflated money so long as my salary keeps pace with inflation. On the other hand, inflation and higher interest rates are bad for people with credit card debts and other variable debt (ARM mortgages, etc.).
In the last few decades gold and silver have generally been very poor investments. Not as poor as putting your dollars under the mattress, but close. However, with a government hell-bent on spending like a drunken sailor, keeping dollar bills doesn't seem smart either.
Precious metals also seem to be a poor hedge for real hardcore Y2K-type doom and gloom scenarios of lawlessness and breakdown of society. (There's a group of coin collectors that also thinks about these things - don't know why.) However, counterfeiting will make such investments less desireable in the future. The Chinese are already copying bullion coins pretty well. If you've got gold and silver stashed away and something really bad happens, it might be hard to trade that precious metal for something else because the person on the other side of the transaction won't know if it's real. That will result in the average person heavily discounting its value, even during a crisis.
Still, you've gotta put your money somewhere. I don't understand the mindset that stocks will all crash. Why? Stocks have historically done well, and there is a lot of innovation and profit being created by American companies. When the dollar drops, our stocks should become even more appealing to foreign investors. And many Americans are set up to automatically invest in their 401(k) plans every pay period, so there is a constant stream of money flowing into the markets. Higher income Americans prefer to invest tax-deferred through 401(k)'s and the like, rather than pay a high marginal rate during their working years, and I don't see that changing. Moreover, if/when the Democrats take over they will increase tax rates (or let them increase when the Bush tax cuts expire), so that tax incentive will probably create increased demand for stocks.
Real estate also seems like a good bet, particularly now that it's taking a shellacking. Interest rates are still pretty low and there seem to be some deals out there. I don't know about you guys, but I'm not counting on any kind of pension in retirement. My employer doesn't offer one, and even if it did, I would be worried about a United Airlines-type transfer of the pension to the government insurance agency, which only pays 50 or 60 or 70 cents on the dollar. A 401(k) is a savings plan - not a pension. It's not really any different than having a stock account with Ameritrade or a bank account. No one's going to pay you X amount per month for the rest of your life. Once that money is used up, it's gone. Social Security is not something you can bank on, and even if you max out and pay in the most S.S. tax possible, you won't get much from it (maybe $2000 month - tops). Real estate seems like a good investment in that if you own a property or two that's paid off and which you can rent out when you're retired, you might be able to use the rental income to supplement your other income. Otherwise, how will you retire? Given the projected population growth (Census Bureau offers a "high" estimate of 500 million Americans by 2050), there will be continued demand for property.
The biggest problem facing this country is not macroeconomic. That will correct and reset as it always has. The bigger problem is individuals not saving, going into debt, and facing a retirement that will involve working at Wal-Mart or Burger King just in order to survive.
Just my .02.
Funny how quick it is mentioned how gold "can't buy" your way out of a hurricane or disaster.......yet somehow the fact that your stock certificates (in the hands of someone else to boot) get you even less than gold. We are nearing the point when the DOW heads off towards 6000 just as gold heads up again. The gold market is declared dead after a 3rd correction in 3 years in a confirmed bull market. Yet the stock market has yet to fathom a true shake out since 2001 which has occurred following every long term bull in this century. The correction to 7500 was just a blip...albeit a 30% blip. That will be tested soon enough. History says it's so.
The amount of anti-gold sentiment is really encouraging. It just means we have barely scratched the surface.
roadrunner
Your salary will most likely NOT keep up with the rate of inflation - that IS a major problem. This is especially true of private companies where outsourcing and off shore operations have been increasing. The only case where salaries keep pace are public jobs - the leeches that feed off the public tax rolls...........with big fat pensions to boot. And if there is any constriction of money supply -- - maybe many of us wont be working at all.
Keep believing that you cant get hurt in equities, that's what every great mind on Wall St wants you to believe. Stay in it for the long haul, it cant be long? Right?
Well this time it may be very long, maybe 8 or more years to recover, maybe more. It is not too long ago where the major indices moved sideways for 20+ years and never returned greater than 6% on a broad market basis for many of those years - and many years less than 6%.
And for real estate where amny hot areas have increased 100% or more in the last 5-6 years. Again, typical long term returns are more like 6-8% annually or less. I dont know about you, but, Putting a half a mil into an investment property to get 6-8% return from rent - but losinghalf in market value IS NOT a good investment.
<< <i>The poor economic conditions are being masked over by the World Banks and the FED. Helped, of course, by the Media. I am not much for conspiracy theories - but once you get by the hucksters and look at the factual? economic data (M3 growth, CPI, Unemployment) you see the writing is on the wall. M3 money supply growing at 12% or more over the last three years, 8% or more from 95-02....and then we are told core inflation only 2.5%????? What????? I don't know about you, but, any idiot on the street can tell that prices have been increasing by 5+% annually over the last few years on common everyday goods.....and thats excluding oil/gas!!!!! How about your property taxes? Clothing, food, etc.?
Then the Unemployment figures.......unbeliveably LOW.....no problems.....hmmmm. Yes, the numbers may not exactly lie, but, what type and quality jobs are being filled???? Talk to our tech guys, see what they say. Talk about salary deflation.
Dont believe the hype you hear.
Insider selling of equity positions has been the highest in the last two weeks, highest since just before the tech bubble bursted in 2001. Seems like the big guys know what is about to happen.
Strong hands hold gold and silver. And for those of you that are fully invested in equities in your 401K and SEP's; take a word of advice and start to move out into cash positions or metal ETF's. I have divested of most equity positions and sit in 4.5-5% MM funds.......anyone who sitys fully invested in equities-you will be slaughtered when the market begins its freefall. And most of you thought gold was in a freefall today. >>
Uhhhhhhhh, NO. Could you tell me how the World Banks and the Fed have set this into motion? This sounds like the very unsavory and blatantly false exporting inflation arguments of the 70's. Sorry, but this one is a pisser for me. I rarely react on econ edicts, but come on, this is a bit out there......
Talk to our tech guys, see what they say.
This tech guys says there are thousands of high tech jobs in oil right now. If someone lacks the skills to do them, get training and come on in, the water is fine. If someone won't get training and won't move, then I can't help them.
<< <i>Talk to our tech guys, see what they say.
This tech guys says there are thousands of high tech jobs in oil right now. If someone lacks the skills to do them, get training and come on in, the water is fine. If someone won't get training and won't move, then I can't help them. >>
I can assure you it's not big oil, since I'm in it......it's layoff city and outsourcing to companies that will get India resources. Small companies that pay a fraction of the wages of the Big oils might be a different story, I don't know but IT is dying and jobs are being transfered.
IMPORTANT: Due to technical difficulties pricing being received is incorrect. We will not be able to honor any orders at this time. We are currently working on the issue and anticipate resolution shortly.
We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience.
Timing is everything. There were 3 30+% drops and 3 70+% rallies during the 70's. Sounds to me like a dream come true.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Hey, platinum is up $3! The correction is over, and it's nothing but blue skies now! Everybody jump back in!
Russ, NCNE >>
Thanks Russ!!! I knew someone would show me the light!
Some people say dipping is bad for you. I say BS.
<< <i>Platinum was down $44 today! Freefall time! >>
I'm just happy that the Mint has a 30-day return policy.
You ain't seen nothing yet.
roadrunner
quietly adding to the horde
time is on my side
hear the federal printing presses?
shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Russ, NCNE
roadrunner
I think one would be hard pressed to find it on ebay at book price , and for those who are liquid , to pass it up I'd say :
You're stupid !
Don't believe me ? Ask my partner who answers with , "Yeah, I know, I should buy some gold " (he's been saying that since I told him at $280.)
I just did a search....
This is starting at $1900 and it's NGC ............CRIPES
We've already seen a 20-25% drop ( in asking prices ) in SW Florida and it's not over yet.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Gold is down, that's true. it will increase again, then drop, then increase, nothing new.