I think it's the beginning of the end for Ebay...

kalch23

I just bought put options on Ebay's stock because I think the EBay era might be coming to an end.

I see them treating their sellers horribly, people are leaving left and right (voluntarily or involuntarily), not to mention I believe the scammers are winning the battle on both Ebay and PayPal.

I also think that the novelty has worn off. Anything exciting that would have made it to Ebay has made it already. I also see less and less stuff on there (especially up for true auction) which means revenue growth is going to become exceedingly difficult. I know that I am more and more frequently getting "free insertion fee day" emails which just means they are needing to get stiff on there to boost FVF revenue.

I can't see one thing on the site that is moving in the right direction. I think it's all over and it's now only a matter of time.

Discuss.

LickThoseStamps

What is a "put option"?

kalch23

It's the right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock.

Most basically, it means that if Ebay stock goes down, I make money.

rb345

Coin sales are a very small contributor to eBay's site revenue. Apparel, electronic equipment, consumer goods, furniture, produce much
larger revenues because the items in question are everyday consumption items which can be manufactured in enourmous quantities. That's why, e.g., Walmart's sales are over $250,000,000,000, while HNAI's are somewhat smaller.

In addition, eBay is rapidly diversifying. In addition to acquiring 25% of Craigslist in anticipation of a multi-billion dollar IPO and a 9-10 figure
annual net income revenue stream, and rent.com, thereby positioning itself to challenger realtor.com for pre-eminence as the nation's or the
world's #1 real estate site, it has also invested hundreds of millions of dollars in attempting to establish itself as the number one auction
site in China, which some people consider a potential growth market because of its population of 1.3 people (China is presently so lucrative
even GM makes money there).

So, sad as the prospect may be, eBay is unlikely to fold. If you share the belief of many on this site that it is an inappropriate forum for a
national coin market, then you need to support development of a collector-dealer website.

gyocomgd

I'm not astute enough about the eBay business model and trends to discuss. I do know that it seems the number of coin listings is higher than it was a couple of years ago.
Also, I wonder if whatever users they've loss hasn't been atoned for by their fee increase of a year or so ago.

ABC123

You may not like eBay for your own personal reasons, but many millions of people do and not just in the USA. I think your wish or desire to see eBay's demise is a wee bit premature. Good luck, however, with your put options !

Peaceman

Options huh... goooooooooooood luck with that...

Post your buy, how far out it is, what the stock was trading at the time and what the put is......

Coxe

I should have bought puts against mine when it was above $50 like I had planned. Now, if it can't buoy above the $30 sea level and loses that long term support, it will be a real mess. It is up a nickel in after hours -- BFD. At least that gives hope that it might not gap down in the morning on us.

Bear

It appears that E-Bay has more problems with coins

and with lesser profit then with the bulk of their other

sale items. Wouldnt be supprised If management isn't

trying to get rid of the coin bussiness.

segoja

"PUT" it to em baby!!!

braddick

I think the treatment eBay is handing out will shake things up and the stock as well as the overall value of eBay will go up because of it.

nankraut

"You may not like eBay for your own personal reasons, but many millions of people do and not just in the USA. I think your wish or desire to see eBay's demise is a wee bit premature. Good luck, however, with your put options ! "

Russ

At least with puts you won't lose as much money as you would if you had outright shorted eBay.

Russ, NCNE

doughmaking

The only way for Ebay to go away is if a better site like it came along. But I doubt that will happen. I use it to buy coins and sell coins and other stuff I have, never had a real big problem yet, just a few dead beat bidders, but they dont amount to much.

Compa

<< <i>I just bought put options on Ebay's stock because I think the EBay era might be coming to an end.

I see them treating their sellers horribly, people are leaving left and right (voluntarily or involuntarily), not to mention I believe the scammers are winning the battle on both Ebay and PayPal.

I also think that the novelty has worn off. Anything exciting that would have made it to Ebay has made it already. I also see less and less stuff on there (especially up for true auction) which means revenue growth is going to become exceedingly difficult. I know that I am more and more frequently getting "free insertion fee day" emails which just means they are needing to get stiff on there to boost FVF revenue.

I can't see one thing on the site that is moving in the right direction. I think it's all over and it's now only a matter of time.

Discuss. >>



I'm very very happy that you are not my market advisor!

BobaFett72

im also interested in the strike price, the length of the options contract etc. I trade options exclusively and at this time I would not be buying PUT options on Ebay. at under $30 a share Ebay is viewed as "cheap" or a value play. Are your options in the money, out of the money? thanks in advance.

Leo

Coinosaurus

Ebay has mindshare & namespace. End of story, it is a license to print money. People underestimate how much the "Q" factor is worth on the Internet. The only possible thing that can undo them is if Google starts offering free auctions & puts advertising money behind it.

Dave99B

Say boy, what ya smoke'in, cheap crack?

Dave

Wizardsguildcards

The only possible thing that can undo them is if Google starts offering free auctions & puts advertising money behind it

Google has been saying for over a year now they are going to start one as well as a payment service like Paypal. Neither have come to be yet. I do agree though that it will take another site to kill Ebay and right now there is nothing even close.

I do think that Paypal is slowly becoming more and more of a burden. Everyday more and more sellers wake up and decide they do not want Paypal controlling their business. That loss of revenue is hurting them.

In the past 3 months I have seen 3 of the largest sellers on Ebay go south all of the sudden most recently was the beloved Parrothead88.

As long as there are buyers on Ebay then there will always be an Ebay.

Coxe

One thing you can say for eBay is that, considering the number of simultaneous auctions all the time, they run pretty damned well. Response time is generally good. Their cluster remains transparent and always up. Most relevant functionality is fairly robust. Management has their hands full with the opportunists that constantly try to exploit their auctions and demands to maintain generous growth for their investors. Right now, their main problem is technical trading should they not hold $30. If not, they will be mashed down to test $18. Ultimately, it comes down to whether they can hit their target. Will they make a buck or so in earnings for the year and will they get 25% or 15% growth going forward?

kalch23

I bought the June $30 puts, for the record.

saintguru

as much as I like AND dislike Ebay for various reasons, I learned many years ago,

THE BOOKIE NEVER LOSES!!

KurtHorn

I can't speak for all the implications on the big picture... I only know that since reading all the stuff here about verification I haven't wanted to list any items on Ebay.

I draw the line at providing anyone copies of a credit card statement. Sorry, just how I feel about it. My wife was recently forced to give a credit card statement to her employer to back up a purchase she made for the University. I canceled that card and had them re-issue me a new one.

The statistics on identity theft in this country are staggering.

Steve27

"I think it's the beginning of the end for Ebay..."

Even if you're correct, puts cover too short a timeframe.

fc

ebay is working out wonderful for me.
paypal is the part that hurts my feelings.

Whitby

Ebay has become something of an unchained monster for folks who envisioned it as the ultimate virtual clearing house for their brick and mortar stores. I however agree that at this point, for coins etc etc, I have started staying far and away from E bay. In fact, unless I can hold the coin, or be in a place wher I can get it verified within 72 hours, no sale.

The data required to have even an appearance of authenticity is back firing. Thieves can use anything they want and the good guys are basically having to put out a bit more risk than many are willing to tolerate. If this is the cost of business on E bay, you may well be correct.

RedTiger

<< <i>im also interested in the strike price, the length of the options contract etc. I trade options exclusively and at this time I would not be buying PUT options on Ebay. at under $30 a share Ebay is viewed as "cheap" or a value play. Are your options in the money, out of the money? thanks in advance.

Leo >>



I agree with Leo. Doesn't look like a smart play, but for every buyer there is a seller and to each his/her own. Two year chart:



An oversold bounce of a few points would not surprise anyone. An option buyer has to be just about perfect on timing, and this looks like bad timing for puts unless there is some luck and unexpectedly bad news comes out.

lsica

<< <i>I draw the line at providing anyone copies of a credit card statement. Sorry, just how I feel about it. My wife was recently forced to give a credit card statement to her employer to back up a purchase she made for the University. I canceled that card and had them re-issue me a new one. >>



OK.. first, why didn't you just black out the credit card number on the copy you sent them?

And, you have a problem giving your credit card statement to the University... but you have no problem giving your credit card (with number on it) to the kid with a ring through his nose behind that counter at the Piggly-Wiggly?

Coxe

Gapped up above the $30 waterline this morning, a good thing. Let's see if it can hold that support. It will probably test it this afternoon.

KurtHorn

<< <i>

<< <i>I draw the line at providing anyone copies of a credit card statement. Sorry, just how I feel about it. My wife was recently forced to give a credit card statement to her employer to back up a purchase she made for the University. I canceled that card and had them re-issue me a new one. >>



OK.. first, why didn't you just black out the credit card number on the copy you sent them?

And, you have a problem giving your credit card statement to the University... but you have no problem giving your credit card (with number on it) to the kid with a ring through his nose behind that counter at the Piggly-Wiggly? >>



Actually, I didn't give the darn statement to the University. She did... and she forgot to black out the number. And as far as the Piggly Wiggly thing - I get you, but that only involves the charge card number and expiration date on one card. Any illegal charges can be returned minus the first $50. With a credit card statement they have everything except your Social Security number. One piece of a puzzle short of full identity theft. We all draw lines in the sand. This one is mine.

Peaceman

I bought the June $30 puts, for the record.

We'll see where it goes... charts are not in your favor...

RBinTex

At least with puts you won't lose as much money as you would if you had outright shorted eBay.

Under many scenarios but definitely not all.

They CERTAINLY limit your exposure to the premium paid for the option + commissions (assuming you're talking about buying puts).

dragon

<<< I just bought put options on Ebay's stock because I think the EBay era might be coming to an end. >>>



and your opinion of Ebay and option trading activity is related to the U.S. Coin forum because......

cohodk

I bought Ebay yesterday and sold it this morning. Hard to not take 3.6% overnight. Thats a long term hold for me.

And a coin for the thread.

JDelage

<< <i>Ebay has mindshare & namespace. End of story, it is a license to print money. People underestimate how much the "Q" factor is worth on the Internet. The only possible thing that can undo them is if Google starts offering free auctions & puts advertising money behind it. >>



That is the smartest post of the whole thread, IMHO.

CC2GO

Well...if anyone's interested....Ebay is in a BIG SCANDAL right now.

StreamCast sues eBay

flaminio

<< <i>Well...if anyone's interested....Ebay is in a BIG SCANDAL right now.

StreamCast sues eBay >>

Big scandal? Hardly. These are guys who make p2p software -- in other words, pirate tools. And the suit isn't technically against eBay, it was against Skype, but eBay bought Skype, so now it's against eBay.

eBay will persist until something viable shows up to replace it. It will not die of its own volition.

cohodk

Just bought it back. I smell fear.....and I like it.

ccrdragon

ebay has been sued by just about anybody and everybody and is still around - alive and kicking very hard.

Dave99B

Can someone explain how a company can also be "fading away" with legitimate top line revenue growth exceeding 35% ?

Dave

LALASD4

Maybe it is better to short it and buy a Call for insurance. Or maybe it is better to do a butterfly since there are so much movements with stocks lately.

dorancoins

Michigan

<< <i>

<< <i>Ebay has mindshare & namespace. End of story, it is a license to print money. People underestimate how much the "Q" factor is worth on the Internet. The only possible thing that can undo them is if Google starts offering free auctions & puts advertising money behind it. >>



That is the smartest post of the whole thread, IMHO. >>





I read somewhere that Google had an auction service similar to Ebay in the planning stages but pulled
the plug on it figuring that Ebay just was too well established.

JDelage

<< <i>I read somewhere that Google had an auction service similar to Ebay in the planning stages but pulled the plug on it figuring that Ebay just was too well established. >>


GOOG is very secretive - no one knows exactly what they're planning. Their constraint is how many developer time they can allocate to a given project. It doesn't change the fact that this is the only serious threat I can think of to their dominance. As a side note, Google would likely have an even more free wheeling approach and policy.

Michigan

<< <i>

<< <i>I read somewhere that Google had an auction service similar to Ebay in the planning stages but pulled the plug on it figuring that Ebay just was too well established. >>


GOOG is very secretive - no one knows exactly what they're planning. Their constraint is how many developer time they can allocate to a given project. It doesn't change the fact that this is the only serious threat I can think of to their dominance. As a side note, Google would likely have an even more free wheeling approach and policy. >>




Google and Microsoft are in a high stakes game of trying to outguess the other as to their
various strategies on improvements with various technology issues and coming
up with the "next big thing" (whatever that may be). Perhaps online auctions are lower on the priority list right now with Google.

MajorDuty

Note the similar dip this exact time last year, and then the rise. It'll be interesting to see if it starts going back up now.




<< <i> >>

classiccoin

looks like ebay up bigtime today.. lolol

kalch23

yes.

CC2GO

Yeah! I see Ebay is head to head with Walt Disney Co.!

BobaFett72

Up today on the news of a broad ranging agreement with yahoo/ paypal etc. $2.00 higher at last check.

golddustin

I think MajorDuty has a very good point. At this time of year, people are getting out in the yard, golfing, fishing, attending ball games (or coin shows), enjoying the weather and extended daylight hours. In my case, my auctions just about dry up from April until September/October, when I gear up for the holidays and those long, dark dreary winter days, when there isn't much else to do. The points made about the company now being more global would seem to mitigate this effect, but let's face it, at this point the majority of eBay's business is done in North America.

Of course, sporting equipment auctions & sales are probably increasing now!