Overvalued coins?

lkenefic

Someone posted a thread earlier pertaining to "under"-valued coins. There are probably many, but I'd like to get opinions about coins that are perceived to be overvalued or inflated. For instance, I collect Indian Head Cents and I'm down to my last coin to complete my collection...you guessed it ...the 1877. Even though it has a mintage of two and a half times that of the 1909-S IHC, I was able to procure my 09-S in AU50 detail (net VF35 in an ANACS holder) for less than half of what I'll probably end up spending to fill the hole for the '77 in a much less comparable grade...thoughts??

Best Regards,

Leo

MikeInFL

Here's one sure to spark debate...the vast majority of ultra high grade moderns in certified slabs I think are overvalued. I also think that RD copper in general is overvalued..Mike

PerryHall

1856 flying eagle
1907 high relief saints
1901-S quarters
1909-SVDB

rec78

1916 S.L. Quarters--There are quite a few of these around-there are some in just about every auction. They are way overvalued in all grades.

Coxe

1889-CC Morgans

jdimmick

1916-d merc
1932-d wash quar
1921-s wlh Vf-30/xf
many others

curly

Since we are talking about keys here, how about some of you dealers tell us about your problems getting rid of them.

Personally, I disagree. I think that the keys sell for what the market will bear. I just can't imagine a dealer buying an 09-S-vdb (probably the most popular coin of all) and then sticking a price on it that he can't expect to receive.

I constantly scour the internet looking at keys and although some have to be lowered from time to time, they always sell.

Ultimately, the collector drives numismatics. In the end, the coin will always come to the price that the collector will pay.

Thats my take on it anyway

lkenefic

curly.... do you think this is a function of which collections are most popular coupled with the desire to complete it? I started on IHC'c and Lincolns...I think alot of us probably started here so the demand for those particular keys will be much greater. I suppose if we all started on bust dimes the situation might be different.

Leo

TheRaven

I have always figured that comparing mintage figures of the 1877 cent to the 1909-S cent to be a waste of time..... The 1909-S I would think have been saved in droves compared to the 1877 cent.....

The 1909-S was the last year of the Indian head cent and from SF, same place as the S VDB cent versus an 1877 cent to come out almost 20 years after the 1859. A cent was worth more money in 1877 also compared to 1909.


As far as overvalued coins I would say the 1901-S in AG-VG grades is insane, set collectors in these grades simply can't afford this coin and are likely to just not include it in there set..... Also the 1901-S is not available much different then the 1913-S quarter.....

The 1916-D Dime & 1909-S VDB cent are basically legendary coins that demand will always be high on because they are the coin in extremly popular series.....

Baley

I suppose if we all started on bust dimes the situation might be different.

Oh gawd, please No!

if even a small fraction of 20th century set collectors attempted to complete sets of the draped bust coins, prices would go through the friching roof. Some of the varieties have but a few dozen examples to go around.

If one compares the number and condition available between 190+ year old coins and modern "rarities"
(including such "treasures" as 09svdb 55dd cents, 1916D mercs, 1901s and 1916 SL quarters, etc)
then one can only conclude that if demand were equal, either the old coins are waaaay underpriced,
or the new coins are verrrry expensive.

Yes, I know about collector demand, as well as "promotion" One can't promote what there isn't a supply of

lkenefic

<< <i>I have always figured that comparing mintage figures of the 1877 cent to the 1909-S cent to be a waste of time..... The 1909-S I would think have been saved in droves compared to the 1877 cent.....

The 1909-S was the last year of the Indian head cent and from SF, same place as the S VDB cent versus an 1877 cent to come out almost 20 years after the 1859. A cent was worth more money in 1877 also compared to 1909.


As far as overvalued coins I would say the 1901-S in AG-VG grades is insane, set collectors in these grades simply can't afford this coin and are likely to just not include it in there set..... Also the 1901-S is not available much different then the 1913-S quarter.....

The 1916-D Dime & 1909-S VDB cent are basically legendary coins that demand will always be high on because they are the coin in extremly popular series..... >>



Points well taken...

I don't collect Barber Quarters and had to go to the listings here at PCGS to get a feel for prices in relation to circulation for the '01-S and '13-S...eeeegad! ...and I thought getting an 1893-S Morgan dollar was going to be hard!

I've often wondered about the historical impacts of collecting on availability, ie..the end of a run or beginning of a run being saved by collectors some 100 years ago and how this has impacted availability and prices in todays markets, but what about historical legislation having an impact? I'm thinking specifically of the Pittman Act of 1918 and which dates/mint marks of Morgan dollars were affected. When you melt 270 million dollars worth of silver dollars it has to have some impact. Does anyone here know if other 90% silver was melted at the same time?

Best Regards,

Leo

BillJones

I agree with those who say red copper is overpriced, especially when the color has been helped along with some better coins through chemistry. I don't care for red copper at all. I'll take a Brown or R&B piece instead. It's cheaper and it's also more stable.

BillJones

I'd also add to some gold coins to this list.

The common date, Mint State Three Dollar Gold pieces have gone up like a skyrocket. Yes, the coins is scarce, but I question if the average MS-63 will really hold a wholesale value of $10,300 which is now Gray Sheet bid.

TheRaven

Silver Dollars are a bit of a different animal the Barber Quarters or Indian Head cents, those are workhorse coins period.....

I would gather to say there are more mint state CC Morgan Dollars then there are mint state Barber Quarters & Halves put together.....

I have never seen mention of what exactly was melted in 1918, but I would imagine bags of worn silver got tossed into the furnances as well.....

$3 gold, I simply don't understand the super high prices on those coins..... I want one for my type set, this coin and the type 2 $1 are likely to be non mint state, but the $3 is getting out of hand in any grade.....

EarlyTypeManJohn

Another good example is common date $10 Indians. In October one prominent online dealer had a very nice 1932 in MS64 listed for $1590. Yesterday I saw another very nice 1932 in MS64 for over $3200! Also in October I saw a nice 1932 in MS65 for $4500. Yesterday I saw one for $6900. I wouldn't touch one at these prices but obviously many folks are.

ziggy29

1999 silver proof sets.

CommemDude

Gold Commems (classic series) ....the pops are very high in MS65-67, and there just can't be that number of collectors trying to complete sets of these coins. Lots of them remain unsold after auction as well. I expect a severe correction in that series.

OnlyBuffalos

2006 First Strike Proof Gold Buffalos PCGS PR70

Modern "First Strike" coins in general

UncleWiggly

1938-D 50C

saintguru

I agree with the High Relief. With 260 in MS65 it's NOT worth $45-50K. For the first time in 5 years we saw 2 go unsold at ANA. That's the top for now.

originalisbest

Some pieces I'm glad I got what I wanted before prices got nutty - '16-D dime, '77 Indian, etc. As far as the '09-S Indian goes in comparison, yes, a lower mintage, but not nearly as scarce. The '77 was an unusual date to come across even in the 1890s!

But of course, there are some dates I missed the boat on - an '01-S quarter in particular. I've sort of become accustomed to the idea that there's NO way I'll pay 4-5 G for a good(!) when it seemed overpriced to me at the level of $2500. I just ignore it now. Still would like to find one metal detecting, or in a junkbox.

lkenefic

Actually, I've had the chance to do a bit of reading on the 1877 IHC and why it is so scarce. During the 1870's it was a function of the economics of the time to re-issue coins or take in coins melt them and use the metal to issue coins for the next year. This doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to me but while there were over 800, 000 1877s minted that year, nearly 2/3 of the entire mintage apparently never made it into circulation. This, plus the other reasons already specified make the 1877 a tough coin to find in any condition.

Leo

cladking

<< <i>Here's one sure to spark debate...the vast majority of ultra high grade moderns in certified slabs I think are overvalued. I also think that RD copper in general is overvalued..Mike >>



Most of them should be safe so long as this is the conventional wisdom. It will be
time to sell when people talk about how scarce they are and how fast the demand
is growing.

Steve27

Anything with colorful toning.

Whizzard

<< <i>Anything with colorful toning. >>



Completely agree. Faddish coins, overvalued and the fad will not last;

And the black coins will not make an attractive inheritance for your grandchildren....

lkenefic

<< <i>

<< <i>Anything with colorful toning. >>



Completely agree. Faddish coins, overvalued and the fad will not last;

And the black coins will not make an attractive inheritance for your grandchildren.... >>



I completely agree as well. I have one NT Morgan dollar (1884-O) that I spent perhaps $20 on. It was in a third-world slab before I cracked it out. The reverse is "rainbow toned" but the obverse is pretty dark and cruddy at MS62. Very little eye appeal IMHO. I also purchased someones' toning experiment...an MS62 1898 Morgan dollar...it turned completely black and looks like a piece of onyx...but then again I only have about a dollar or two over melt in that coin. What I fail to comprehend is someone paying several hundred dollars on someone elses toning experiment that...for the moment...looks OK

jdimmick

IMO,

There is a he!! of a bunch of keys that are overpriced!!!!!!

jim

500Bay

<< <i> IMO,

There is a he!! of a bunch of keys that are overpriced!!!!!! >>



I agree they are high - but compared to "widgets" these will fare better in a bear market, I would think.

Russ

There isn't nearly enough modern bashing in this thread. Get with it, people.

Russ, NCNE

frankieboywonder

<< <i>There isn't nearly enough modern bashing in this thread. Get with it, people.

Russ, NCNE >>




Recent special finish coins such as the 1998-S Kennedy and the 1994 and 1997 Jefferson nickels. Enough already with super prices on coins that have no reason.

mrearlygold

The more common Early eagles. 25 G's+ for 1799's in AU?

Not with my checkbook!

coinkat

<< <i>There isn't nearly enough modern bashing in this thread. Get with it, people. >>



Russ:

We are taking about coins, not pocket change


All joking aside, there are many factors to consider... everyone that wants a complete set needs the keys.

Demographics are changing and folks are aging and in some instances, interests and the connection that collectors have to coins may not be what it was 20-30 years ago. Don't count all moderns out.